Grand National Weights

Cappa Bleu  10-10

The Midnight Club 10-8

Killyglen 10-04

are interesting

Ballabriggs on 11-9 suggests they won't go up by more than a pound either.

THE 2012 JOHN SMITH’S GRAND NATIONAL

Class 1, Grade 3, £975,000 total prize fund. 4.15pm, Aintree, Saturday, April 14, 2012. 4m. 4f.

Form  Horse    Age/Wgt Owner    Trainer

1) 13-P031 SYNCHRONISED (IRE) 9-11-10 J P McManus   Jonjo O'Neill

2)11/1121- BALLABRIGGS (IRE)  11-11-09  Trevor Hemmings  Donald McCain

3) 115-F31 MIDNIGHT CHASE  10-11-08 Lady Clarke   Neil Mulholland

4)1/10P-13 WEIRD AL (IRE)  9-11-08   Brannon, Dennis, ****, Holden  Donald McCain

5) 11121/2- BURTONPORT (IRE)  8-11-07 Trevor Hemmings  Nicky Henderson

6)FF-B111 QUEL ESPRIT (FR)  8-11-07 Red Barn Syndicate  Willie Mullins IRE

7) 2F-0511 CALGARYBAY (IRE)  9-11-06 Camilla Radford  Henrietta Knight

8)106-P42 NEPTUNECOLLONGES (FR) 11-11-06 John Hales   Paul Nicholls

9)F-6041U ALFA BEAT (IRE)  8-11-05 Irvin Naylor   John Hanlon IRE

10)F01/35-2 PLANET OF SOUND  10-11-05 Charles Lloyd-Baker  Philip Hobbs

11) 143111 BLAZING TEMPO (IRE) 8-11-04 Susannah Ricci   Willie Mullins IRE

12)1U30432 ROBERTO GOLDBACK (IRE) 10-11-04 Seamus Dunne   Dessie Hughes IRE

13) 51U/022/- BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 13-11-03 Gerard Burke   Dessie Hughes IRE

14)6/3U34-1 DEEP PURPLE  11-11-03  Paul Green   Evan Williams

15)131/321- JUNIOR   9-11-02 Middleham Park Racing LI David Pipe

16)112-021 QUANTITATIVEEASING (IRE) 7-11-02 J P McManus   Nicky Henderson

17)3631441 SCOTSIRISH (IRE)  11-11-02 Double R Stables Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE

18) 04-5060 TARTAK (FR)   9-11-02 Power Panels Electrical  Tim Vaughan

19) 2-FU111 APT APPROACH (IRE)  9-11-01 Greenstar Syndicate  Willie Mullins IRE

20) 6/1155-6 LITTLE JOSH (IRE)  10-11-01 Tony Bloom   Nigel Twiston-Davies

21) 0F2224 PSYCHO (IRE)   11-11-00 Exors of the late C McClure Tony Martin IRE

22) 10-U303 CHICAGOGREY (IRE)  9-10-13 John Earls   Gordon Elliott IRE

23) 3100-01 TATENEN (FR)  8-10-13 The Stewart Family  Richard Rowe

24) 22-3011 ACCORDING TO PETE 11-10-12 Peter Nelson   Malcolm Jefferson

25)F11/-111 SEABASS (IRE)  9-10-12 Gunners Syndicate  Ted Walsh IRE

26) 000-112 SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM (IRE) 8-10-12 Liam Breslin   Nicky Henderson

27) 11PB-P1 WEST END ROCKER (IRE) 10-10-12 Barry Winfield & Tim Leadbeater Alan King

28) 1P-1323 HECTOR'S CHOICE (FR) 8-10-11 James and Jean Potter  Richard Lee

29)235/3/1-P MASSINI'S MAGUIRE (IRE) 11-10-11 Alan Peterson   David Pipe

30) 14P1-B1 ON HIS OWN (IRE)  8-10-11 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE

31)2113-1P ALWAYS RIGHT (IRE)  10-10-10 John Wade   John Wade

32) 3F2P/-13 CAPPA BLEU (IRE)  10-10-10 William & Angela Rucker Evan Williams

33) 5U-P20P CRESCENT ISLAND (IRE) 9-10-09 Sarah Bays Jill Scott Sarah MacEchern Nigel Twiston-Davies

34)PU-3450 RARE BOB (IRE)  10-10-09 D A Syndicate   Dessie Hughes IRE

35)63F/-52P MON MOME (FR)  12-10-08 Vida Bingham   Venetia Williams

36)12-133F ORGANISEDCONFUSION (IRE) 7-10-08 Grace Dunlop   Arthur Moore IRE

37)3/216-B43 THE MIDNIGHT CLUB (IRE) 11-10-08 Susannah Ricci   Willie Mullins IRE

38)P/P-51423 TREACLE (IRE)  11-10-08 Bjorn Nielsen   Tom Taaffe IRE

39)0P2F-60 ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 10-10-07 J P McManus   Jonjo O'Neill

40) 3/5P-2304 COOLDINE (IRE)  10-10-07 Jackie Mullins   Willie Mullins IRE

41)PP//1-11 HOLD ON JULIO (IRE)  9-10-07 Mr & Mrs F Bell, N Farrell, A Marsh Alan King

42) 2130-F2 PEARLYSTEPS  9-10-06 The Glazeley Partnership Henry Daly

43)U5351-5 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 9-10-06 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE

44) F505-02 NICHE MARKET (IRE)  11-10-05 Graham Regan   Paul Nicholls

45)//U1/2B/1- ROULEZ COOL  9-10-05 Robert Waley-Cohen  Robert Waley-Cohen

46)P0-5121 STEWARTS HOUSE (IRE) 10-10-05 Double Trouble Partnership Tim Vaughan

47) 03F-30P SUNNYHILLBOY (IRE)  9-10-05 J P McManus   Jonjo O'Neill

48)140310 UNCLE JUNIOR (IRE)  11-10-05 Mrs M McMahon  Willie Mullins IRE

49)4-U2634 FAIR ALONG (GER)  10-10-04 Alan Peterson   Philip Hobbs

50) F-03034 KILLYGLEN (IRE)  10-10-04 David McCammon  Stuart Crawford IRE

51) 2F-4010 QUISCOVER FONTAINE (FR) 8-10-04 J P McManus   Willie Mullins IRE

52)4-P1300 THARAWAAT (IRE)  7-10-04 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE

53)041-044 ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 11-10-03 Mr & Mrs Peter Douglas Peter Bowen

54)42F-63F BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE (IRE) 9-10-03 Noel Glynn   Noel Glynn IRE

55)P-0P011 LE BEAU BAI (FR)  9-10-03 Glass Half Full   Richard Lee

56)144/P3/4- STATE OF PLAY  12-10-03 William & Angela Rucker Evan Williams

57) 2313P2 SWING BILL (FR)  11-10-03 David Johnson   David Pipe

58)FP-2661 POSTMASTER   10-10-02 The Bill & Ben Partnership Tim Vaughan

59) 30/-003P SHAKERVILZ (FR)  9-10-02 Jackie Mullins   Willie Mullins IRE

60)312U5/5- THE PACKAGE  9-10-02 David Johnson   David Pipe

61)1P-6P60 WYMOTT (IRE)  8-10-02 Trevor Hemmings  Donald McCain

62) P/5000-P BACKSTAGE (FR)  10-10-01 MPR & Capranny Syndicate Gordon Elliott IRE

63)3/P22-12 GILES CROSS (IRE)  10-10-01 KCMS Partnership  Victor Dartnall

64) PP-5U65 HELLO BUD (IRE)  14-10-00 Seamus Murphy  Nigel Twiston-Davies

65)431U0-P IN COMPLIANCE (IRE) 12-10-00 Dessie Hughes   Dessie Hughes IRE

66) 21/10P-1 MIDNIGHT HAZE  10-10-00 Kim Bailey Racing Partnership Kim Bailey

67) 500423-F NORTHERN ALLIANCE (IRE) 11-10-00 Irish Rover Syndicate  Tony Martin IRE

68) 0044B-20 VIC VENTURI (IRE)  12-10-00 Seamus Dunne   Dessie Hughes IRE

69) 00-143P VIKING BLOND (FR)  7-10-00 Caroline Mould   Nigel Twiston-Davies

70)R-120U3 QHILIMAR (FR)  8-9-13  Whites of Coventry & Stephen Dunn Charlie Longsdon

71)PP24U6 SOME TARGET (IRE)  8-9-10  Captain Conflict Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE

72) 0-31504 NEPTUNE EQUESTER  9-9-09  Koo's Racing Club  Brian Ellison

73)32-3P40 ANY CURRENCY (IRE) 9-9-08  Cash Is King   Martin Keighley

74)0-42026 OUR ISLAND (IRE)  7-9-07  David Fox   Tim Vaughan

75)11PPP0 SCHINDLER'S GOLD (IRE) 10-9-07 Dr Richard & Laura Newland Dr Richard Newland

76)31P/-FP3 ABBEYBRANEY (IRE)  11-9-05  Sue Johnson   George Bewley

77)660-P42 SADDLERS STORM (IRE) 10-9-05 Billy Moffett, R T & J McLoughlin  Tony Martin IRE

78)05-34106 SMOKING ACES (IRE)  8-9-05  J P McManus   Tom Taaffe IRE

79) 50-PP0F KING FONTAINE (IRE)  9-9-04  Trevor Hemmings  Malcolm Jefferson

80)6-12026 ANOTHER PALM (IRE) 7-9-03  M J M Racing Syndicate Noel Meade IRE

81) 12-20P3 BALLYVESEY (IRE)  7-9-02  Roddy Owen & Paul Fullagar Peter Bowen

82)0P3-5U2 MINELLA THEATRE (IRE) 9-9-00  Middleham Park Racing XXIV & Dan Gilbert Lawney Hill

82 entries

31 Irish-trained

John Smith’s Grand National – Betfred bet: 14/1 Junior, 16/1 Ballabriggs, Synchronised, 20/1 Midnight Chase, On His Own, Prince de Beauchene, Quel Esprit, Roberto Goldback, West End Rocker, 25/1 Apt Approach, Burton Port, Calgary Bay, Cappa Bleu, Chicago Grey, Deep Purple, Hold On Julio, Little Josh, Planet Of Sound, Roulez Cool, Seabass, Shakalakaboomboom, The Midnight Club, Treacle, 33/1 According To Pete, Always Right, Alfa Beat, Always Waining, Backstage, Becauseicouldntsee, Cooldine, Giles Cross, Hector's Choice, Killyglen, Le Beau Bai, Neptune Collonges, Niche Market, Organisedconfusion, Pearlysteps, Quantitativeeasing, Quiscover Fontaine, State Of Play, Stewarts House, Sunnyhillboy, Viking Blond, Weird Al, 40/1 Arbor Supreme, Ballyvesey, Blazing Tempo, Fair Along, Massini's Maguire, Mon Mome, Postmaster, Rare Bob, Some Target, Tatenen, The Package, Uncle Junior, Vic Venturi, 50/1 Another Palm, Any Currency, Black Apalachi, Hello Bud, Midnight Haze, Northern Alliance, Our Island, Qhilimar, Scotsirish, Shakervilz, Swing Bill, Tartak, Tharawaat, Wymott, 66/1 Crescent Island, In Compliance, Psycho, Saddlers Storm, Schindler's Gold, 100 Abbeybraney, King Fontaine, Minella Theatre, Neptune Equester, Smoking Aces

Some eyecatchers off low weights - Mon Mome (10-8), Chicago Grey (10-13), Niche Market (10-5), Le Beau Bai (10-3), State of Play (10-3), Vic Venturi (10-0), West End Rocker (10-12)

Paul Nicholls (Neptune Collonges 11st 6lb, Niche Market 10st 4lb)

"Both have got weights I half expected. Neptune is too consistent for his own good and he would seem to have plenty to me, but he did run well in a Scottish National with a big weight so he is used to it.

"Niche Market will get in and would appear to have a lovely weight."

Dessie Hughes (Roberto Goldback 11st 4lb, Black Apalachi 11st 3lb, Rare Bob 10st 9lb, In Compliance 10st, Vic Venturi 10st)

"Roberto Goldback is probably entitled to have that sort of weight on his level of form, but I think Black Apalachi's weight is a disgrace.

"He hasn't run in almost two years, he's a 13-year-old now and they haven't dropped him a pound.

"He's been round Aintree four times and has been unlucky a couple of times, but he can't be as good a horse as he was two years ago.

"The owners will be very disappointed and we'll have to have a think about whether we run him now.

"Rare Bob will probably run, along with Roberto Goldback. The other two are going to struggle to get in."

Tony Martin (Psycho 11st, Northern Alliance 10st, Saddlers Storm 9st 5lb)

"They would all be intended runners if they get in, but I'll we'll just have to see where we are nearer the day.

"Psycho would be running off a mark of 153. He's rated 148 in Ireland, so it's not all that different and a few pounds isn't going to make a lot of difference in a National."

Tom Taaffe (Treacle 10st 8lb)

"Treacle has come out of the Hennessy well and the Grand National is absolutely the plan.

"He has gone up a stone in Ireland due to that run and otherwise he wouldn't have got into the National and that's why he ran at Leopardstown. He actually needed to run a good race and thank God, he's run his best race ever.

"He was bought as a three-year-old for the owner Mr Nielsen with the intention to being a National horse some day but we didn't think that it would take eight years!,

"He jumps and stays which is what you've got to do to have a chance in the National.

"At this stage we're just trying to get there but it's still a lottery and you've got to look out for fallers and be lucky enough not to fall yourself. Everything has to fall into place and he'll go straight there now."

Henry Daly (Pearlysteps 10st 6lb)

"He should get in at least. It's an entry we've made but at this stage it's too early to say whether he's a definite runner or not.

"He's not certain to run, it's just an entry at this stage but the race is in our mind."

Stuart Crawford (Killyglen 10st 4lb)

"Off that weight you'd be fairly hopeful he'd get in the race, and that is the main thing.

"The horse is in good form and he'll probably have a run somewhere during the first weekend in March.

"He could go the same route as last year and run in the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster, or he could go to the Premier Chase at Kelso or a handicap chase in Leopardstown.

"Doncaster would probably be the favourite option at this stage, but it would be ground dependant.

"He nearly made it round Aintree in the Grand National last year and he's a good jumper. With that bit more experience under his belt, I'd be hopeful he would get round this time and run a big race."

Noel Glynn (Becauseicouldntsee 10st 3lb)

"He's going to have a run over hurdles tomorrow just to get his confidence back. He had a heavy fall in the National last year and in the Paddy Power.

"He had 10st 8lb in the National last year so he's a few pounds lower but that means he's not certain to get in.

"The National is his target and he'll run in the Kim Muir at at Cheltenham first. It's a nice weight."

John Hanlon (Alfa Beat 11st 5lb) "I'm very happy with his weight but I wanted 11st!

"He was unlucky at Leopardstown the last day when he just clipped heels and went down on the flat. He's in great form at the moment and he'll have a run in Down Royal in about three weeks.

"Barry Geraghty was very happy with him the last day until he was brought down and I'm hoping he'll ride but obviously it depends on what his boss (Nicky Henderson) runs.

"Good ground is vital to him and he should get it over there. The National has been his aim all year."

John Wade (Always Right 10st 10lb): "It looks a nice racing weight and at least he's guaranteed to get a run.

"I suppose he is quite hard to assess as he didn't run well at Wetherby last time for some reason and we don't really know why.

"He seems in good form at the moment and the plan is for him to run in the Grand National Trial at Haydock on Saturday, so hopefully he can bounce back there."

4 for me,

Deep Purple
Chicago Grey
Treacle
The Package

Can anyone tell me what the highest winning weight is in the last 20 yrs? (I know they have only recently started to compress the weights).

11.5 Dont Push It, Corbeire 11.4, Grittar 11.5.

Rule of thumb has been 138 gets in .....but this year looks more compressed to me. Any thoughts?

I like a couple at 139 but reticent to get stuck in.

West End Rocker off 10-12 stands out to me, 0.5pt @ 20/1.

I think in 20 years time there will be many winners and placed horses with 11st and upwards.

Am I missing something here?  Midnight Chase gave Junior 12LB and a 9L beating last season at Cheltenham in Nov, yet now has to give only 6LB in the National.  Junior 13/1F on here Midnight Chase 100/1.

I appreciate he'll run in the Gold Cup and it sounds like a good prep. He'll also love the probable good ground.

Midnight Chase connections probably wont run him at Aintree. Thats my gut feeling and obviously Junior is being trained for the race.

My early thought is Treacle (more thoughts will spring to mind later). So admire his recent battling spirit. See how the race cuts up before any other thoughts.

Cooldine is chucked in

shockster - just a word advice  - that was the type of thinking I had when I was in year 1 or 2 of my betting life. Taking lines and trying to interpolate like that will send you to the poor horse especially when you involve more than 2 selections but even 2 selections is fraught with danger. Horses are not machines and to assume they run to similar marks all the time is just unrealistic.

Well Racing, I have been doing this a long time now and you're right not to be too literal all the time.  However, both horses have improved since that run. Neither have been to Aintree before and I would always back MC at these weights.  The downside is he may not run, depends how he comes out of the GC. If he runs will be a 20 to 25/1 shot IMO.  Well worth the risk at 100/1!

if you asked neil mulholland chances of him running, he'd probably say about 25%. still a good price?

Unless you know him, and he's said that then fair enough.  However, realistically he's entered the horse.  Probably been given a chance by the handicapper against official ratings.  I expect him to run well in the Gold Cup without winning as he's just short of top class.  Therefore might as well go for the National as he will be 11 next year and probably missed his best chance.  Actually think he'll take to the fences and could do all the way like Lord Gyllene for same owners.

Alternatively Neil could just be wasting money entering the horse.

The way Midnight Chase runs, i think Cheltenham will leave its mark. He will be up  in the van and under pressure from a fair way out and will battle on. Not a chance of it running in my humble.

We're probably going to see a couple of horse running from out of the handicap for the first time in years arent we? Given that in the past, no.72ish on weights day has been enough to get into the race after withdrawals etc. I'm going to have a couplke of £s on no. 71 SOME TARGET @ 300.0 in anticipation of a decent run today in the Grand National trial (he has been pricewised i think?).

Midnight Chase set to run = Midnight Chase will be readied for a tilt at the John Smith's Grand National following his slightly disappointing performance in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

The 10-year-old is a five-time course winner at Prestbury Park and appeared to have sound place claims for Neil Mulholland after finishing fifth in the blue riband 12 months ago, but having made mistakes from the front, he weakened into seventh.

"He's come out of the race fine. I think the ground was just too fast for him in places and he didn't jump. He just never got into that rhythm that he can do, which was a bit frustrating, but these things happen and we move on," said the trainer.

"We'll look at the National for him now. We'll leave him in and the owners are happy to go that way, which is great. He schooled over National fences last year and jumped them well, so hopefully there'll be no worries on that score.

"He stays, he jumps and he has a touch of class, so he looks to have everything you need anyway.

"We don't want the ground too fast or too soft - just nice jumping ground would be great."