Grand National
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And the 2012 Grand National winner is...
And the 2012 Grand National winner is...
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Replies: 71
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Okay apologies if it came across rude that wasnt my intentions
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Fair enough for Cappa Bleu as your attacking this purely from a stats point of view
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It's such a demanding race (big field, big fences, big crowd, the canal turn, the chair, etc), inexperience has to be a big negative for me, stats or no stats.
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Stront ran in the Hennessy ran on gold cup day against a truck load of chasers winning fox hunters
3rd in Welsh national massive field not worried about the experience |
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Still we all have dreams at this stage so gd luck all
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Indeed
 Give he has only run in 5 chases, they are good ones. He just wouldn't be for me. GL. |
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On the weights side of things, Cooldine must be thrown in.
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Don't know if it is a certain runner though,
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well done judorick in putting so much work in but i have spent rather a lot of time on it now myself and my very shortlist is west end rocker always right and deep purple could you tell me how you have dismissed always right please
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Some nice contributions. No more fighting though please
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A soft ground National would see Giles Cross have a great chance. Sound jumper, stays all day & will have a nice weight.
Sunnyhillboy also of interest to me.This one definitely has a big race in him. Ran a great race in last seasons Irish National showing his stamina. On a nice handicap mark, can see him winning at the festival & becoming favourite for the National with McCoy on board. Prince de Beauchene, i think pick of the Mullins entries & will be Ruby's mount & Planet of Sound also on my shortlist. |
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I think Cooldine could be the handicap snip if he could recover anything like his previous form, but its big if and Mulllins saying that he's not the horse he was, but off 147 and potentially carrying somewhere between 10-4 and 10-10 (depending on weight compression of higher rated horses and possible weight rises after publication)he wouldnt have to be.
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west end rocker all day , stays , jumps and has a touch of class was brought down last year , this year has won over the national fences this year so being brought down last year hasnt affected his confidence plus alan king says he is the best chance he has ever had of wining a national, prob will get in off a good weight think he is a good ew bet
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Personally will probably get some stick for this but cannot see this horse West End Rocker winning, not sure on class angle looks like its ground dependant and wants it softish.
When you look at the likes of Deep Purple who has won a peterboro and won a 3m 3/4 race at Sandown easily off top weight synchronised who is 4th fav for Gold cup. Cappa Bleu who destroyed a fox hunters and was talked of as a gold cup winner, Cooldine who has won a RSA, Planet of Sound who finished 2nd in a Hennessey, and won at Punchestown. A unexposed horse in Sunnyhillboy who could sneak in having finished 3rd in Irish national with nice weight. West End Rocker unless it comes up testing is plenty short enough Imo. |
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The Midnight Club.
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Weights out this afternoon
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Everyone happy with their fancies and their weights?
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Happy with Seabass, don't know if he's going though.
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Hope you right Mully
GB / Aint 14th Apr / Grand National Chicago Grey Back 10-Dec-11 12:39 65 10.00 65 19-Dec-11 19:43 Couldnt get the PR seats this year so i will be up above you,maybe throw a glass of champers down all goin well  |
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Stewarts House for Me.
Progressive since Tim Vaughan,ran two good races this season,course winner and has a nice weight. |
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sgt bilko -Don't spill it on my freshly dry-cleaned suit
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Ballabriggs. Won it last year and he's strongly fancied for a repeat.
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neptunes collonges seems to me to have the right profile to win this race, he has been dropped 7lbs and run 2 decent races, the later giving 26 lbs to a young improoving horse hold on julio. He has been alloted 11.5 for this race but with young harry derham taking off another 7lbs, 10.12 looks a very winnable mark, i took the 70,s available
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Can he claim in the National? I thought not.
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strontium, your right, can't claim in National.
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gone through the trends, as per evry Grand National, and it's left me with a shortlist of 3:
West End Rocker Giles Cross Planet of Sound |
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Have been working on my shortlists and have now backed these:
Cappa Bleu Chicago Grey Sunnyhillboy The Midnight Club Killyglen Niche Market Roulez Cool There are quite a few more possibilities that I will consider when more evidence comes to light in particular West End Rocker, Uncle Junior and a couple more |
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The Package 33's into 10's on the day (housewives' favourite, much to the gall of DJ who is forced to take unders for his 2 year plot as a result).
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Always a complete and utter lottery. Will be backing whatever Walsh and McCoy ride?
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Great
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what great?
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the national is far from a lottery
its a fairly predictable marathon handicap chase and the winners have similar profiles in that they have decent amount of experience but are not old has beens, they have proven stamina and class generally having won at 3 miles plus and at least in class 2, young and old alike struggle to win so focus on 8 to 11 yos and discard the rest and you will do alright in the long run problem is people want to back one horse and hope to get the winner and in my very long experience this is unlikely to be a successful strategy. Find several that fit the profile and split your stakes across the group to give yourself as much chance as possible because the likelihood of non completion is quite high |