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29 Nov 11
11:05
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10 Jul 01
Welcome to the Long Run Forum 
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Also backed MM. Long Run most likely winner though if he jumps
Agree with BJG
I've backed Somersby each way at 10/1 without Long Run.
I've backed Somersby each way at 10/1 without Long Run.
And, I do not fancy Kauto Star one bit, but will gladly have a cheer should I be proved wrong.
KS not defo running yet, according to RP report...
Interesting saxon -
I fancy Somersby Each/Way but thought the 16/1 with Long Run looked the better option. Still two places up for grabs, plus I'm not sure Long Run will make light of a very hard race in the Betfair in the way others seem to think he will. Love the horse but am slightly concerned it took more out of him than ideal (way more than his Paddy Power run did 12 months ago).
Out of interest, I take it the 10/1 E/W means 1,2,3,4 if Long Run is first, second or third?
I fancy Somersby Each/Way but thought the 16/1 with Long Run looked the better option. Still two places up for grabs, plus I'm not sure Long Run will make light of a very hard race in the Betfair in the way others seem to think he will. Love the horse but am slightly concerned it took more out of him than ideal (way more than his Paddy Power run did 12 months ago).
Out of interest, I take it the 10/1 E/W means 1,2,3,4 if Long Run is first, second or third?
yeah tom, youll get 4th place too. i did it once and mine came 4th, had to argue with them. without is without, no 2 ways about it!
I am inclined to agree that the Haydock race may have left a bit of a mark on Long Run - it was a gruelling affair, and would not immediately appear to me as the sort of race to bring a horse on, or leave a horse fresh. I am a little surprised PFN has not totally committed Kauto to the race yet, and though I suspect this is sensible given the horse's profile, it just makes me wonder if the race also took a bit more from him.
Biggest concern for me regarding long Run would be (as ever) his jumping (can he fiddle? it was flawless before the 1st error at Haydock then fell apart a little) and the track. Clearly he has loved the place with 2 imperious victories, but he won last yr's race through staying (looked in trouble to me when Nacarat kicked on leaving the back), won the Gold Cup like an out and out stayer (was pushed along coming own the hill when Kauto was still tanking) and appeared to find Haydock too sharp (although maybe he just found it hard to come back on the bit after his 1st error when they were seriously trapping down the back).
He could hack up by 10l and demonstrate again he adores the place, making me look like an foolish (easily done!), but I think the race suits a high class stayer with toe more than a high class out and out stayer, and it is just in my mind that as the horse has aged he wants more of a test (I know he won the Kingmaker not 2 yrs ago). Given that Kauto was built for the place, and given that Captain Chris appears to love the place and seemingly is almost certain to run (Master Minded?), I would not be taking a short price about Long Run this yr. I do not know if Nacarat is going to run, but seemingly Golan Way is, and his leading from the front should ensure something of a test of stamina, which is what I believe Long Run now wants.
Biggest concern for me regarding long Run would be (as ever) his jumping (can he fiddle? it was flawless before the 1st error at Haydock then fell apart a little) and the track. Clearly he has loved the place with 2 imperious victories, but he won last yr's race through staying (looked in trouble to me when Nacarat kicked on leaving the back), won the Gold Cup like an out and out stayer (was pushed along coming own the hill when Kauto was still tanking) and appeared to find Haydock too sharp (although maybe he just found it hard to come back on the bit after his 1st error when they were seriously trapping down the back).
He could hack up by 10l and demonstrate again he adores the place, making me look like an foolish (easily done!), but I think the race suits a high class stayer with toe more than a high class out and out stayer, and it is just in my mind that as the horse has aged he wants more of a test (I know he won the Kingmaker not 2 yrs ago). Given that Kauto was built for the place, and given that Captain Chris appears to love the place and seemingly is almost certain to run (Master Minded?), I would not be taking a short price about Long Run this yr. I do not know if Nacarat is going to run, but seemingly Golan Way is, and his leading from the front should ensure something of a test of stamina, which is what I believe Long Run now wants.
If Kauto does not race Master Minded will win, get on MM now cause the odds will get halved if Kauto is not running.
Good luck anyway :)
Good luck anyway :)
Kauto definite runner according to RP website.
I personally cannot wait for this race! I have backed MM and KS e/w and with LR. MM @ 5s and 10s and KS at 11/2 5s and 9/2. I am of the opinion that LR will not win this season tbf. He looked laboured fto in the betfair and i am very pleased to read above there are others out there that are of the same opinion, maybe not that he wont win this season but that the betfair is not the type of race that would bring on a horse and that it was a gruelling race.
The way i saw last years race was KS was tanking along at the same time LR came back on the bit after getting passed nacarat, but KS smashed the 2nd last apart and it was game over. A year older and now with KS being aimed at it, i really can see history being made! Just imagine what it will do for the sport should Kauto Star win a 5th KG! Weather permitting, he would not have a better chance!
The way i saw last years race was KS was tanking along at the same time LR came back on the bit after getting passed nacarat, but KS smashed the 2nd last apart and it was game over. A year older and now with KS being aimed at it, i really can see history being made! Just imagine what it will do for the sport should Kauto Star win a 5th KG! Weather permitting, he would not have a better chance!
Kauto was struggling before the home turn last season and was well beaten before he went through the 2nd last, though I believe that cost him second.
Other than that, I agree this season's race is exciting and it would be magnificent if Kauto manages it. LR could have been bottomed by his Gold Cup, as some horses are, or by the Betfair. Kauto has already put up a better run this year than he managed last season. Better hope it isn't too wet between now and Christmas.
Other than that, I agree this season's race is exciting and it would be magnificent if Kauto manages it. LR could have been bottomed by his Gold Cup, as some horses are, or by the Betfair. Kauto has already put up a better run this year than he managed last season. Better hope it isn't too wet between now and Christmas.
It's all about opinions and where i agree with you Mccoy had a couple of niggles during the KG, they was well before the 2nd last fence and before LR appeared to come off the bridle when Nacarat kicked for home, it was at this point i started to think, hang about, this could come off, he seems to be better than LR now! Apart from that at no other point during the race was i comfortable by how he was being ridden. From the 2nd fence i started thinking mccoy was not the right man for the job even though i stated on here for weeks before he is the champ and best man they can get etc etc. I do think it would have been between LR and KS after the last though!!! 2nd may have been all KS could have achieved that day, who knows, but it would have been a better finish that i am sure of!
I've just watched it again then, and though i see SWC niggling LR and AP riding Kauto into his fences before the 3rd last, i can see Kauto staying on again and getting gradually closer to LR before 2 out. How close he could have got i do not know. LR did win by 10L which was made up between the last two fences. Had both horses jumped the last two as accurately as possible, it certainly would not have been 10L!
FWIW, I make Long Run a 4/6 shot.
Kauto: swansong last month at Haydock.
MM: won't stay.
Captain Chris: huge potential, but too much to prove & may not stay.
Somersby: will stay imo, but what an enigma.
DH: Needs things his own way & doubts about going right handed.
Nacarat & Golan Way will at least guarantee the pace.
GL, & merry xmas to all.
Kauto: swansong last month at Haydock.
MM: won't stay.
Captain Chris: huge potential, but too much to prove & may not stay.
Somersby: will stay imo, but what an enigma.
DH: Needs things his own way & doubts about going right handed.
Nacarat & Golan Way will at least guarantee the pace.
GL, & merry xmas to all.
Ruby Walsh: I never thought Kauto Star was finished... but Long Run will be too good
By Marcus Townend
L 22nd December 2011
Ruby Walsh is emphatic about who should be feeling the heat most in the countdown to the William Hill King George VI Chase on Boxing Day - and it is not him.
The Irish jockey may be trying to steer national treasure Kauto Star to an unprecedented fifth win in the Kempton race but, he insists, it is amateur rival Sam Waley-Cohen on Long Run who must deal with much greater pressure.
A new hierarchy is being hailed in steeplechasing and, even after Kauto Star's emotional defeat of his younger rival in last month's Betfair Chase, Walsh insists he and one of the greatest jumpers the sport has seen are underdogs.
'Last season Sam was riding the big white hope, now he's riding a superstar,' says Walsh. 'I know Long Run's a family horse but with the tag of a King George and Cheltenham Gold Cup winner comes that bit of pressure. He seems to be handling it well but it is a different ball game. I know that.'
Indeed, few are better qualified to comment. No other jump jockey competes so successfully at the top level as 32-year-old Walsh.
Success on Willie Mullins-trained duo Boston Bob and Zaidpour at Navan last Sunday made it 16 Grade One wins since the Cheltenham Festival in March when, returning after four months out with a broken leg, he silenced the doubters with a storming success on Al Ferof in the opener.
The 15 wins to follow have been gained despite yet another lengthy lay-off with a neck injury. In the same period, Richard Johnson has had six Grade One wins, Barry Geraghty five and, for all his success, Tony McCoy only one.
The potent ammunition supplied by Mullins and British champion Paul Nicholls ensures Walsh's enthusiasm is undimmed, despite the physical toll and constant danger that saw a mount kick off his helmet at Newbury last month as his prostrate frame was battered by flailing hooves.
'I've had my fair share of injuries, probably more,' says the jockey, whose spleen was removed following a blow to the stomach in 2008. 'Injuries are part of a National Hunt jockey's life. People from the outside don't realise that jump jockeys don't just do it for the money. It's a love, an addiction.
'It's something I live with. When you get hurt, all you think of is the next time you are going to ride a winner. Pain is temporary. Horses have been my life and are all I know. Do I have the temperament to train (when I retire)? I don't know but I'm sure I'll find out. It will be a new challenge but hopefully one I don't have to find out about for a long time.'
Kauto Star has played a massive role in fulfilling Walsh's passion for riding big winners. The duo have secured four King Georges and two Cheltenham Gold Cups in their 16 successes. Their partnership stretches back to a novice chase at Newbury on December 29, 2004.
Rarely does a jockey have a chance to forge such an extended relationship with a mount. That this era is close to an end was emphasised when Kauto Star's stablemate and rival Denman suffered a career-ending injury this month.
'Kauto Star is just an incredible horse,' says Walsh. 'With a racehorse, any day can be the end of the road. They are fragile. I never thought Kauto and Denman would last so many years going head to head. It's a testament to Paul Nicholls.'
Walsh must have feared the glory days were over when 11-year-old Kauto Star, under McCoy, succumbed to six-year-old Long Run in last year's King George. Defeat in the Gold Cup followed and then Kauto Star was pulled up at Punchestown. But now history beckons on Boxing Day as Kauto Star seeks to go one better than the mighty four-time King George winner Desert Orchid.
Walsh insists it is not sentiment that has made him choose Kauto Star over younger Nicholls-trained stablemate and 11-2 third favourite Master Minded, the former two-mile champion chaser racing over three miles for the first time.
Walsh said: 'Master Minded will stay and he has a cracking chance. The plan for him has always been Kempton. The plan for Kauto was Haydock but things have changed. He's been so good at Kempton.
'You were thinking, "Is there another Grade One in Kauto?" but I never thought he was finished. He gives you so much, you never think you've no chance.'
Oh yes, Haydock; the most emotional day of the racing year when calls for the fading Kauto Star to be retired were drowned out as he roared to a first win over Long Run and a fourth Betfair Chase success. It was vintage Kauto Star and Long Run, trained by Nicky Henderson and owned by Waley-Cohen's father Robert, couldn't live with him. The old champion had picked himself off the canvas and bloodied the nose of the upstart who had wrested his titles away. But what of the re-match?
'Kauto was in great nick, probably a better horse than he was at any stage last season, but I didn't think he'd beat Long Run and I don't think he'll beat him in the King George,' admits Walsh.
'That doesn't mean I don't hope he will. I just think Long Run will be a better horse in the King George. Long Run looked a bit ring rusty at Haydock and that was the way he ran. Paul's horses traditionally hit top gear three to four weeks before Nicky's do. Paul's are still going, Nicky's have just caught up.'
Are those just the honest words of a professional? Or could they be designed to heap pressure on Waley-Cohen? Surely not, Ruby.
THE STORY SO FAR
JANUARY 15, 2011 King George VI Chase, Kempton
Kauto Star is 4-7 to secure a fifth King George, but the champion’s jumping lacks fluency for substitute jockey AP McCoy. Long Run, a 9-2 chance, travels smoothly throughout to beat stablemate Riverside Theatre 12 lengths, with Kauto Star seven lengths further back in third.
March 18, 2011 Cheltenham Gold Cup
Long Run is the 7-2 favourite but makes several minor mistakes as Kauto Star (5-1) forges ahead with Denman on the final circuit. But as the trio charge to the penultimate fence, Long Run drives past his older rivals to beat Denman seven lengths. Kauto Star is four lengths further back.
November 19, 2011 Betfair Chase, Haydock
With his future on the line, 6-1 chance Kauto Star is given an attacking, front-running ride by Walsh. Long Run, the 6-5 favourite, holds on stoutly despite three blunders in the back straight but can’t reel in Kauto Star, who goes away to win by eight lengths
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/racing/article-2077697/Ruby-Walsh-I-thought...
By Marcus Townend
L 22nd December 2011
Ruby Walsh is emphatic about who should be feeling the heat most in the countdown to the William Hill King George VI Chase on Boxing Day - and it is not him.
The Irish jockey may be trying to steer national treasure Kauto Star to an unprecedented fifth win in the Kempton race but, he insists, it is amateur rival Sam Waley-Cohen on Long Run who must deal with much greater pressure.
A new hierarchy is being hailed in steeplechasing and, even after Kauto Star's emotional defeat of his younger rival in last month's Betfair Chase, Walsh insists he and one of the greatest jumpers the sport has seen are underdogs.
'Last season Sam was riding the big white hope, now he's riding a superstar,' says Walsh. 'I know Long Run's a family horse but with the tag of a King George and Cheltenham Gold Cup winner comes that bit of pressure. He seems to be handling it well but it is a different ball game. I know that.'
Indeed, few are better qualified to comment. No other jump jockey competes so successfully at the top level as 32-year-old Walsh.
Success on Willie Mullins-trained duo Boston Bob and Zaidpour at Navan last Sunday made it 16 Grade One wins since the Cheltenham Festival in March when, returning after four months out with a broken leg, he silenced the doubters with a storming success on Al Ferof in the opener.
The 15 wins to follow have been gained despite yet another lengthy lay-off with a neck injury. In the same period, Richard Johnson has had six Grade One wins, Barry Geraghty five and, for all his success, Tony McCoy only one.
The potent ammunition supplied by Mullins and British champion Paul Nicholls ensures Walsh's enthusiasm is undimmed, despite the physical toll and constant danger that saw a mount kick off his helmet at Newbury last month as his prostrate frame was battered by flailing hooves.
'I've had my fair share of injuries, probably more,' says the jockey, whose spleen was removed following a blow to the stomach in 2008. 'Injuries are part of a National Hunt jockey's life. People from the outside don't realise that jump jockeys don't just do it for the money. It's a love, an addiction.
'It's something I live with. When you get hurt, all you think of is the next time you are going to ride a winner. Pain is temporary. Horses have been my life and are all I know. Do I have the temperament to train (when I retire)? I don't know but I'm sure I'll find out. It will be a new challenge but hopefully one I don't have to find out about for a long time.'
Kauto Star has played a massive role in fulfilling Walsh's passion for riding big winners. The duo have secured four King Georges and two Cheltenham Gold Cups in their 16 successes. Their partnership stretches back to a novice chase at Newbury on December 29, 2004.
Rarely does a jockey have a chance to forge such an extended relationship with a mount. That this era is close to an end was emphasised when Kauto Star's stablemate and rival Denman suffered a career-ending injury this month.
'Kauto Star is just an incredible horse,' says Walsh. 'With a racehorse, any day can be the end of the road. They are fragile. I never thought Kauto and Denman would last so many years going head to head. It's a testament to Paul Nicholls.'
Walsh must have feared the glory days were over when 11-year-old Kauto Star, under McCoy, succumbed to six-year-old Long Run in last year's King George. Defeat in the Gold Cup followed and then Kauto Star was pulled up at Punchestown. But now history beckons on Boxing Day as Kauto Star seeks to go one better than the mighty four-time King George winner Desert Orchid.
Walsh insists it is not sentiment that has made him choose Kauto Star over younger Nicholls-trained stablemate and 11-2 third favourite Master Minded, the former two-mile champion chaser racing over three miles for the first time.
Walsh said: 'Master Minded will stay and he has a cracking chance. The plan for him has always been Kempton. The plan for Kauto was Haydock but things have changed. He's been so good at Kempton.
'You were thinking, "Is there another Grade One in Kauto?" but I never thought he was finished. He gives you so much, you never think you've no chance.'
Oh yes, Haydock; the most emotional day of the racing year when calls for the fading Kauto Star to be retired were drowned out as he roared to a first win over Long Run and a fourth Betfair Chase success. It was vintage Kauto Star and Long Run, trained by Nicky Henderson and owned by Waley-Cohen's father Robert, couldn't live with him. The old champion had picked himself off the canvas and bloodied the nose of the upstart who had wrested his titles away. But what of the re-match?
'Kauto was in great nick, probably a better horse than he was at any stage last season, but I didn't think he'd beat Long Run and I don't think he'll beat him in the King George,' admits Walsh.
'That doesn't mean I don't hope he will. I just think Long Run will be a better horse in the King George. Long Run looked a bit ring rusty at Haydock and that was the way he ran. Paul's horses traditionally hit top gear three to four weeks before Nicky's do. Paul's are still going, Nicky's have just caught up.'
Are those just the honest words of a professional? Or could they be designed to heap pressure on Waley-Cohen? Surely not, Ruby.
THE STORY SO FAR
JANUARY 15, 2011 King George VI Chase, Kempton
Kauto Star is 4-7 to secure a fifth King George, but the champion’s jumping lacks fluency for substitute jockey AP McCoy. Long Run, a 9-2 chance, travels smoothly throughout to beat stablemate Riverside Theatre 12 lengths, with Kauto Star seven lengths further back in third.
March 18, 2011 Cheltenham Gold Cup
Long Run is the 7-2 favourite but makes several minor mistakes as Kauto Star (5-1) forges ahead with Denman on the final circuit. But as the trio charge to the penultimate fence, Long Run drives past his older rivals to beat Denman seven lengths. Kauto Star is four lengths further back.
November 19, 2011 Betfair Chase, Haydock
With his future on the line, 6-1 chance Kauto Star is given an attacking, front-running ride by Walsh. Long Run, the 6-5 favourite, holds on stoutly despite three blunders in the back straight but can’t reel in Kauto Star, who goes away to win by eight lengths
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/racing/article-2077697/Ruby-Walsh-I-thought...
I have had a small bet on Kauto despite being a Long Run fan. If KS was below form last season for a reason other than his age, he might prove to be as good as ever as he appeared to be at Haydock. It should be 6/4 each of 2, 10/1 Master Minded, 20/1 bar in my opinion. The gulf between these 2 horses rated in the mid to high 180's and the rest should be considerable and Captain Chris has 12-15 lb. to find even if he is as good over 3 miles.
should be a cracking race! long runs jumping is a concern ,add to the fact he had a hard race at haydock ,then the 5/4 doesnt look big enough, he may well win but with the risks involved id want bigger a win for kauto would raise the roof but he was primed for the betfair according to nicholls ,
mater minded will he stay? his jumping should keep him bang in contention but after 2 out anybodys guess ( according to his ex trainer g.macaire and ruby who rode him in a 2.4 m in france thats his limit ) somesby has got the talent but seems qa nearly horse too many seconds .captain chris could be the one at around 8/1 every chance of staying and has about 15 lb to find, but should have plenty of improvement in him and could suprise .captain chris e.way for me .
mater minded will he stay? his jumping should keep him bang in contention but after 2 out anybodys guess ( according to his ex trainer g.macaire and ruby who rode him in a 2.4 m in france thats his limit ) somesby has got the talent but seems qa nearly horse too many seconds .captain chris could be the one at around 8/1 every chance of staying and has about 15 lb to find, but should have plenty of improvement in him and could suprise .captain chris e.way for me .
Think Long Run is a bit too short for me at the prices.Hes the probable winner but given his occasional jumping errors and his run last time,i just feel that the price dont justify a big outlay.
So i will take a chance on Somersby.Hes 19 on here which is generous i feel,and this trip could just find him enjoying himself and running well.
Also gonna do Somersby without the fav.Hes the sort that runs into places on a regular basis.
So i will take a chance on Somersby.Hes 19 on here which is generous i feel,and this trip could just find him enjoying himself and running well.
Also gonna do Somersby without the fav.Hes the sort that runs into places on a regular basis.
The trouble with being as dogmatic as Saxon Farm is when you are quite wrong.
How anyone could see Long Run a sa "4/6 shot" after he was shaton at Haydock.....
He was outclassed by an old but better class horse.
How anyone could see Long Run a sa "4/6 shot" after he was shaton at Haydock.....
He was outclassed by an old but better class horse.
TBF he was outclassed by virtue of being ridden by a dentist as oppossed to Kauto who was ridden by the best jump jockey of all time.
cryoftruth
Yes, I certainly got it wrong, but have never been accused of being "dogmatic", before!
People who actually know me have called me far worse than that.
I tip my hat to Kauto Star, who as Ian Bartlett said on the run in "the horse of a lifetime".
It was a privilege to watch such a magnificent display.
Yes, I certainly got it wrong, but have never been accused of being "dogmatic", before!
People who actually know me have called me far worse than that.
I tip my hat to Kauto Star, who as Ian Bartlett said on the run in "the horse of a lifetime".
It was a privilege to watch such a magnificent display.
I can't accept the hard luck stories for Long Run. Yes he was closing on the run in and he would have made a race of it over another furlong but when Ruby pressed the button 5 out, he had no answer at all to Kauto's speed and I think the winner was idling from the last. If they ran it again over that course I would still back KS and Ruby whoever was riding Long Run. If Ruby was not riding Kauto, I'm not so sure. The evidence is very clear now that KS was way below form last season.
ud have to be on Long Run at carpet looks a great bet imo think you will see a much better performance in GC all SWC knockers have short memories gave it a brill ride last season Kauto Star best horse ive ever seen but i'm afraid the hill will find him out dont think the race will play to kauto's strengths hope i'm wrong though
He's a deserving favourite but I doubt he'll be massively shorter than 3 on the day having been beaten twice by Kauto this season.
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