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21 Jun 11
16:13
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Date Joined:
05 Jun 08
A couple of guys (Sinndar & Prospero?) collaborated on a trends booklet in 2009, not sure if it was updated for 2010?
My view is that because the quality of the racing is quite average (with the exception of each day's feature) it is difficult to establish trends along the usual statistical lines: age, no. of runs, previous wins etc.
Some of the more obvious trends that I have noticed over the years:
* DK Weld targets this meeting like no other and his record is pretty staggering how he can prep horses for this meeting. His runners do tend to be overbet but he often wins win with charges that are ignored in the market.
* A lot of trainers dislike this venue intensely and the likes of David Wachman and Ger Lyons avoid it if possible. I think the Bolger, Stack, Oxx record would also be poor.
* A regular feature of the week is winners turning out again to record back-to-back successes.
* Horses that also run well earlier in the week can also reappear with winning chances.
* A draw nearest the rail is vital over the faster distances.
* Virtually every horse that wins an ordinary race will target Galway as its mid-season objective.
* Its a track for "hot streak" trainers. Shark Hanlon, Paul Gilligan, David Marnane have all had very good years but its a trend that doesnt tend to repeat itself for individuals even though they tend to throw plenty of darts in subsequent seasons.
* Taking note of trainers that train geographically close to Galway usually will highlight horses laid out for the festival. Val O'Brien and Iggy madden are two that come to mind.
* JP loves his Galway winners and he will have an entourage in tow that would put Imelda Marcos to shame.
I usually prepare fairly comprehensive notes for this meeting and I will publish them closer to the start, probably on the Saturday before the the jollity starts. If they run to too many pages I will be happy to email them to anyone interested.
Feel free to add to this thread.
My view is that because the quality of the racing is quite average (with the exception of each day's feature) it is difficult to establish trends along the usual statistical lines: age, no. of runs, previous wins etc.
Some of the more obvious trends that I have noticed over the years:
* DK Weld targets this meeting like no other and his record is pretty staggering how he can prep horses for this meeting. His runners do tend to be overbet but he often wins win with charges that are ignored in the market.
* A lot of trainers dislike this venue intensely and the likes of David Wachman and Ger Lyons avoid it if possible. I think the Bolger, Stack, Oxx record would also be poor.
* A regular feature of the week is winners turning out again to record back-to-back successes.
* Horses that also run well earlier in the week can also reappear with winning chances.
* A draw nearest the rail is vital over the faster distances.
* Virtually every horse that wins an ordinary race will target Galway as its mid-season objective.
* Its a track for "hot streak" trainers. Shark Hanlon, Paul Gilligan, David Marnane have all had very good years but its a trend that doesnt tend to repeat itself for individuals even though they tend to throw plenty of darts in subsequent seasons.
* Taking note of trainers that train geographically close to Galway usually will highlight horses laid out for the festival. Val O'Brien and Iggy madden are two that come to mind.
* JP loves his Galway winners and he will have an entourage in tow that would put Imelda Marcos to shame.
I usually prepare fairly comprehensive notes for this meeting and I will publish them closer to the start, probably on the Saturday before the the jollity starts. If they run to too many pages I will be happy to email them to anyone interested.
Feel free to add to this thread.
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fair dues to you and if you do it would be very much appreciated.
" usually prepare fairly comprehensive notes for this meeting and I will publish them closer to the start, probably on the Saturday before the the jollity starts. If they run to too many pages I will be happy to email them to anyone interested."
Easy the most benevolent act seen on the forum in many's a day.
I have traditionally hated the fare on offer [on the track!] for this Festival, so have avoided like the plague. I am however, heading to the meeting with a group who have no interest in racing whatsoever, and am looking forward to it immensely.
I have never compiled any sort of extensive dossier for Galway - as such , I would be most interested in reading your thoughts.
Easy the most benevolent act seen on the forum in many's a day.
I have traditionally hated the fare on offer [on the track!] for this Festival, so have avoided like the plague. I am however, heading to the meeting with a group who have no interest in racing whatsoever, and am looking forward to it immensely.
I have never compiled any sort of extensive dossier for Galway - as such , I would be most interested in reading your thoughts.
In 2009 I compiled a list of horses that had Galway as a specific target following a win in the weeks and months earlier in the year. Whereas the list included winners such as Ballyholland 16/1 and Young Lochinvar 10/1 the overall strike-rate was disappointing and returned an overall loss to level stakes.
I followed the fortunes of these horses in 2010 at the Festival meeting and they returned just one winner (Separate Ways 10/1) from 21 attempts.
Never one to give up easily, I investigated the horses that had targetted Galway based on a winning performance earlier in the season and found a rich vein of success on the horses start subsequent to Galway. In my opinion, win or lose these horses are trained to the minute for Galway and presumably are close to or at this level of fitness on their next start. There were 9 winners from 37 starters returning a gross total of 50.5 points for a profit of 36.6%.
Therefore it is probably wise to keep an eye on these fancied Galway losers once they turn out again.
I followed the fortunes of these horses in 2010 at the Festival meeting and they returned just one winner (Separate Ways 10/1) from 21 attempts.
Never one to give up easily, I investigated the horses that had targetted Galway based on a winning performance earlier in the season and found a rich vein of success on the horses start subsequent to Galway. In my opinion, win or lose these horses are trained to the minute for Galway and presumably are close to or at this level of fitness on their next start. There were 9 winners from 37 starters returning a gross total of 50.5 points for a profit of 36.6%.
Therefore it is probably wise to keep an eye on these fancied Galway losers once they turn out again.
RoyalAcademy,
Some very interesting pointers you've put up here. The Galway Festival guide was produced in 2009 by Tony Keenan. I thought it was very useful but sadly it hasn't been updated since.
I've been going to Galway since 2000 and despite this experience, I've had some very mixed results. 2008 was a fantastic year but more years than not, I suffer a loss-making festival.
Nevertheless, I cannot wait for the flight on Sunday morning!
I think it is worth looking out for not only Galway trained horses (such as Gilligan, who has enjoyed winners there) but also locally owned horses. It seems to me that there is nothing better for a local to get a winner at Ballybrit - last year saw John Earls get a couple of wins.
I'll post up some of my fancies and eyecatchers in the coming days.
Some very interesting pointers you've put up here. The Galway Festival guide was produced in 2009 by Tony Keenan. I thought it was very useful but sadly it hasn't been updated since.
I've been going to Galway since 2000 and despite this experience, I've had some very mixed results. 2008 was a fantastic year but more years than not, I suffer a loss-making festival.
Nevertheless, I cannot wait for the flight on Sunday morning!
I think it is worth looking out for not only Galway trained horses (such as Gilligan, who has enjoyed winners there) but also locally owned horses. It seems to me that there is nothing better for a local to get a winner at Ballybrit - last year saw John Earls get a couple of wins.
I'll post up some of my fancies and eyecatchers in the coming days.
Dermot Weld debutants are worth looking out for. 3yos not so good due to short price. And his main owners are often Moyglare Stud and Dr. Lambe. He uses claimers successfully. Pat Smullen has ridden over half his winners in the last 6 years, but RP McNamara also worth keeping an eye out for.
Hopefully I will have my research ready by the weekend.
Some interesting snippets I am uncovering on the way:
* Plate horse that was in training in Newmarket and represents same connections that won at festival with a similarly-trained horse in 2008.
* Hurdle-winning trainer with 6% overall strike rate but improving to 40% and 10-points clear profit with his handicappers that have started at under 10/1 only.
* Jumps trainer with an impressive three placed horses on the flat from just five runners over last three years.
* Trainer who is "half-serious" about winning the Plate with a horse who's won twice, been second twice and was 4th on five of it's 6 Galway outings.
* South-east trainer in the form of his life that is earmarking three horses to run at Ballybrit and who has an impressive two wins from just three runners over the past three years.
* Small lady trainer from the midlands targetting Galway since last May with a modest handicapper but she has been placed twice at 25's and 14's at the festival from only four ever runners.
* One of the week's feature races will contain a favourite where his trainer is on a 30+ losing streak that includes five horses beaten at less than 5/1. You have to go back to 2005 to find a winning horse for the stable.
* Feared gambling stable with five winners from 41 runners (5/1 best SP). 27 of these started at under 10/1 over past few years. Result? 22 beaten including the five shortest priced: 6/4, 9/4, 5/4, 5/2 & 9/4. A layer's dream!
* Currgah trainer being far more selective in his runners (from being mob-handed in the past) with 3 placed horses from 5 runners in past two years.
* New-found enthusiasm for Galway for a trainer with no recent runners but a very healthy strike-rate and profit when concentrating on his fancied horses (< 10/1) from 2006-2008.
Plus many more trends.....
My notes in Word run to numerous pages and I would be happy to email them to anyone.
royalacademy1@ireland.com
(probably Saturday or Sunday before I have everything ready to go).
Some interesting snippets I am uncovering on the way:
* Plate horse that was in training in Newmarket and represents same connections that won at festival with a similarly-trained horse in 2008.
* Hurdle-winning trainer with 6% overall strike rate but improving to 40% and 10-points clear profit with his handicappers that have started at under 10/1 only.
* Jumps trainer with an impressive three placed horses on the flat from just five runners over last three years.
* Trainer who is "half-serious" about winning the Plate with a horse who's won twice, been second twice and was 4th on five of it's 6 Galway outings.
* South-east trainer in the form of his life that is earmarking three horses to run at Ballybrit and who has an impressive two wins from just three runners over the past three years.
* Small lady trainer from the midlands targetting Galway since last May with a modest handicapper but she has been placed twice at 25's and 14's at the festival from only four ever runners.
* One of the week's feature races will contain a favourite where his trainer is on a 30+ losing streak that includes five horses beaten at less than 5/1. You have to go back to 2005 to find a winning horse for the stable.
* Feared gambling stable with five winners from 41 runners (5/1 best SP). 27 of these started at under 10/1 over past few years. Result? 22 beaten including the five shortest priced: 6/4, 9/4, 5/4, 5/2 & 9/4. A layer's dream!
* Currgah trainer being far more selective in his runners (from being mob-handed in the past) with 3 placed horses from 5 runners in past two years.
* New-found enthusiasm for Galway for a trainer with no recent runners but a very healthy strike-rate and profit when concentrating on his fancied horses (< 10/1) from 2006-2008.
Plus many more trends.....
My notes in Word run to numerous pages and I would be happy to email them to anyone.
royalacademy1@ireland.com
(probably Saturday or Sunday before I have everything ready to go).
I would really appreciate a copy of this. I fly out early Sunday morning but I can access email once getting there. Should I just send you an email?
just email royalacademy1@ireland.com
enjoy your trip!
enjoy your trip!
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