Grand National
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
http://i54.tinypic.com/334hlzs.jpg
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 69
|
By:
Here's the preview..
 |
|
By:
what odds you reckon he will be??
|
|
By:
i thought he wasnt goin...
|
|
By:
What you previewing? who will be 2nd and 3rd??
|
|
By:
You not use forum beta to see the picture? The race is just Hurricane Fly winning at a canter.
 |
|
By:
he is going to punchestown right?
|
|
By:
he is going to punchestown right?
|
|
By:
ive seen it now,very good mate.
hard to argue with that |
|
By:
i thought he wasnt goin
|
|
By:
he's not going,mullins does not want him running on the likely firm going after such a long season,said the only reason he went last year is cause he missed cheltenham and came good just in time for punchestown,next run will be in the hattons grace in december and the exact same 3 races after that
|
|
By:
goin 4 de french champion hurdle isnt he?
|
|
By:
that was the plan but an immediate family member of the owner George Creighton has been taken critically ill and i heard that running the horse was the last thing on his mind right now until they are out of danger,was George's idead to run in france and was suppose to be a big family outing,but has to be in doubt now,still 2 months off yet so could easy happen yet
|
|
By:
No way Hurricane not running @ Punchestown
 .....irish summer is quite strange as we know....we are due a good down poor sooner or later |
|
By:
Thought Montjeus go in a bog?
They certainly don't get up the Cheltenham hill............ [:o] |
|
By:
"I am pleased with Hurricane Fly at the moment and the plan is to go to the Rabobank Champion Hurdle," said Mullins.
|
|
By:
Fly on course for Punchestown wiiiiiiiiiiiii..What a treat this is goina be
|
|
By:
why was theformman talking so much sh1t about him not running?![smiley:crazy]
|
|
By:
Not his fault Willie Mullins always gives you the impression his right hand has no idea what his left hand is doing, so rumours are inevitable.
Good news that Binocular will line up at least it will be if the real Binocular turns up. Would take a brave man to oppose Hurricane Fly bit it could answer the question: Just how good is he if he wins fair and square beating the Henderson horse into second. Should be no excuses for either horse as they will both have a chance to display their talents on what is a very fair track. |
|
By:
You'd think that Fly is due an upset. He's been a winning machine this far and he can't always be on top of his game. He's gotta run a bad race eventually, no horse is a machine.
|
|
By:
True CVB... but I'll still be backing HF. And the good news is that Binocular lining up, should make him a backable price.
|
|
By:
Hurricane has been nothing but consistent his entire career and there is no reason to think that will change anytime soon,the only way he would not run upto his best is if sustaining an injury during a race or old age which is a long way off,will win on the bridle,fill your boots
|
|
By:
CVB is just covering all angles in case Binocular wins, which he has a chance of anyway.
|
|
By:
CVByrne 25 Apr 11 21:50
You'd think that Fly is due an upset. He's been a winning machine this far and he can't always be on top of his game. He's gotta run a bad race eventually, no horse is a machine. Incorrect. Big Buck's is a machine  |
|
By:
he does tend to cover all angles whilst posting on here,that assures he gets it right i suppose[;)]
|
|
By:
Punchestown Champion Hurdle trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners) 5yo: 3-1-9 6yo: 2-5-24 7yo: 4-2-20 8yo: 1-3-10 9yo: 0-0-4 10yo: 0-2-2 11yo+: 0-0-2 Horse aged 5 to 7: 9-8-53. Horses aged 8+: 1-5-20 Gender Mares (0-1-5) have yet to win this race and the exceptional Quevega in 2009 became the first female to make the frame from 5 runners in the past decade. Breeding Irish bred: 8-6-50 French bred: 1-0-11 British bred: 1-2-8 No strong trends on breeding. Recent/Past Form 9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their last completed start 10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in their last 3 hurdles starts (6 last time out) 9 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days 8 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 6 hurdles races that season 7 of 10 winners had run in 5 to 11 times over hurdles 9 of 10 winners contested a novice hurdle the previous season or that season 9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle 9 of 10 winners were course winners Punchestown Festival Form 8 of 10 winners had previously won at the Punchestown Festival (the 2 exceptions had finished 3rd in the Champion Hurdle & 6th in grade 1 Bumper) 7 of 10 winners (last 3) had won a juvenile or novice hurdle at the Festival (1 exception was brought down 2 out when looking a likely winner of a novice hurdle, other 2 exceptions had not contested a novice hurdle at the Festival) Defending Champion Hurdler (Hurricane Fly): 72222 (0-4-5) Evening Herald Champ Nov Hurdle winner (Blackstairmountain): 31681 (2-0-5) Other races Red Mills Hurdle winner (Dunguib): 811 (2-0-3) Cheltenham Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 122 (1-2-3) Leopardstown Dec Festival Hurdle (Hurricane Fly): 1322 (1-1-4) Previous year's Supreme Novices winner (Menorah): 13 (1-0-2) Irish Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): F33232 (0-2-6) Christmas hurdle winner (Binocular): 62 (0-1-2) Core Hurdle winner (Gimli's Rock): 689 (0-0-3) 5 of 10 winners ran in the December Festival Hurdle, finishing 17243 4 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle, finishing 1323 3 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle last time out, finishing 4F1 3 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing F22 3 of 10 winners ran in the Red Mills Hurdle, finishing 211 3 of 10 winners ran in the Morgiana Hurdle, finishing 153 Trainers Willie Mullins (2-2-7) has gained 2 wins and 3 thirds from 7 runners since 2001. Jessica Harrington (2-1-5) has also won the race twice in past 10 years. Nicky Henderson (1-1-4) has saddled Punjabi to win the race in 2008 and finish runner-up in 2009. Colm Murphy (1-0-3) is the only other trainer with an entry to have won this race in the past decade. Noel Meade (0-1-10) has a poor record in this race, gaining no wins and just one place (with a 4/6 favourite) from 10 runners. British trained runners (2-2-10) have a fair record, winning 2 of the last 10 and with 4 of their 10 runners making the frame. Both British-trained winners had won the grade 1 4yo hurdle at the previous year’s Festival. Price 9 of 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter 9 of the last 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting however no clear favourite has won this race in the past 10 years, with Solwhit winning as joint favourite in 2009 being the only successful market leader. Favourites (1-6-11) have taken just 1 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 8.50. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: • Aged 5 to 7 • Finished in the first 3 last time out in past 50 days • Run 3 to 6 times over hurdles this season • Contested a novice hurdle this season or last season • Won a grade 1 hurdle • Previous Festival winning form is crucial • Previously won a novice or juvenile hurdle at the Festival • Finished in first 3 in Red Mills Trial and/or Champion Hurdle • Ran in the December Festival Hurdle • Trained by Willie Mullins or Jessica Harrington • Priced 6/1 or below (favourite has a poor record) |
|
By:
I hate stats, useless things. Fav has a bad record which rules out Hurricane Fly and Jessica's only entry is a rag so that's 2 gone. Dunguib is 8 so he's out, No uk horses ever runs in the Festival Hurdle I can remember so Binocular and Menorah are out, as for the rest of the stats I'm sure we can eliminate all the horses and not bother running the race.
No matter what the stats say Hurricane Fly on all known form should win, Menorah or Binocular are the most likely dangers along with HF stable companion Thousand Stars and the rest don't matter. |
|
By:
You've got to laugh at some on here like Graeme and TheFormMan,
So I'll be right if Binocular beats Hurricane Fly. Baffling in it's utmost. Good to have some clueless people to let the real punters make money. I'll be heavily backing Hurricane Fly like I always have. I have made a fortune off this horse and he won the race that matters, the Champion hurdle. So harp away losers. I've already boarded the Gravy Train back in 2008. It's still steaming ahead and whenever it stops all I'll have to do is look back at the money he's made, laugh at the losers who gave me abuse for my support of the horse. I don't nned to be right, I was right. |
|
By:
I think i'll have to back Binocular at the price, im not the greatest fan of the horse and opposed him at Liverpool because i thought that 2.5 miles wasnt going to see him in a good light but he has always thrown in some below par runs during a year and i cant have Menorah winning the race, so basically imo im laying Hurricane at 1/5.
If he hadnt gone to Liverpool in what i felt was never going to show him in a good light he'd be much shorter here. |
|
By:
I backed HF for the CH and all the rest of it. Unlike you CVB, i don't feel the need to go on about it or act as if i own the horse. If Binocular wins, he does so fair and square.
|
|
By:
well said Graeme,most of us just collect our money week in and week out and are happy enough without shouting 'look at me,look at me' from the rooftops,from your attitude cvb,it would seem as though you dont get it right very often and when you do you get a little over excited,good luck finding your next winner
|
|
By:
Those who know me will be quick to tell you I was Binocular's number one fan and touting him for the Champion Hurdle the day he won his very first race. Then right after he won the Champion Hurdle I wrote a log post explaining why he wouldn't win this year and that Hurricane Fly would take his crown.
So now they are going to meet,not at Cheltenham but in sunny Ireland which meant a rethink. My theory at Cheltenham doesn't really apply to any other course and if anything this course could swing things in Binocular's favour. Binocular's biggest asset is his ability to quicken not so much at the end of his races as it is to quicken the pace suddenly from between the 3rd last and 2nd last hurdle. His best wins have come in this fashion and with no hill to climb he could just steal a march on Hurricane Fly as things tend to happen very quickly round Punchestown. Hurricane Fly beat Solwhit a neck in this last year and if Binocular is 100% on the day he won't be as easy to dispose of. This may not be as easy as some would think and if both are spot on it could go either way. I wouldn't be having a tenth of what I had on HF in the Champion Hurdle but I will back Binocular who could just about win this with a bit of luck. Either way I expect it to be very close. |
|
By:
I think Binocular has it all to prove, the form of his 2 grade 1 wins is poor. Khyber Kim, Zaynar and Overturn are hardly quality horses.
|
|
By:
How can you question Binocular's ability as a hurdler. He would have just about won any Champion Hurdle with his 2010 performance.
AP said of him he's never sat on a more fluent hurdler and the way he skipped clear of his field in the Champion Hurdle could hardly be faulted. The horse has nothing to prove. When he's right he treats other hurdlers with pure contempt and oozes class. To be frank you are after timing on the form of horses who have all been top class on their day but like Binocular have been out of sorts or not trained on. There's little doubt in my mind that Binocular on his day is a far superior animal to Solwhit who was beaten a neck in this last year. The big question is which Binocular will turn up but if it's the real one make no mistake Hurricane Fly will be flat out to beat him and if Binocular gets first run on him he may not even do that. Without knowing for sure if Binocular is back to his best it's an impossible race to be having your life savings on. as there can't be much between them if they're both spot on. |
|
By:
Hurricane is alot better than you are giving him credit for Rondetto,dont forget that the neck win against solwhit in this race last year was off a long lay off due to injury and he has since proved over and over again how superior he is to solwhit who is a very special horse in his own right,if the very best Bino turns up which i hope is the case then Hurricane will sit behind him,get upsides him as easy as he likes and will be pushed out to win hands and heels,he is simply that good,the best i have ever seen,but you are right in what you say,the only possible way hurricane could be beat is if Bino stalks him and gets first run and takes ruby by surprise,but ruby is not that stupid.
|
|
By:
backed hurrican fly to win at cheltenham always intended to even if binocular ran see no reason to desert him now
|
|
By:
Rondetto, Binocular won a shocking Champion Hurdle. The only 2 good horses in that race Solwhit was sick, and Go Native injured.
He's a hugely overrated horse who loses most of his races. He needs to go prove he is a proper top class hurdler. Because to me he's there with Punjabi, Sublimity and Katchit as just winners of the Champion Hurdle. Nothing more. He'll have his chance on Friday to prove he's good. But if he isn't in the first 2 then he is just an overrated horse. Plain and simple. No more excuses for this horse, all he is is one big excuse. |
|
By:
Personally, I think Hurricane Fly is on a different planet to Binocular and history will see it that way. But history gets made in the races, Fly wins them Binocular doesn't.
|
|
By:
My feeling is that HF and Binocular are both very special horses, though with HF possibly the more versatile in terms of the range of conditions under which he is able to beat the opposition. Rondetto made some good points about Binocular and wrote that:
Binocular's biggest asset is his ability to quicken not so much at the end of his races as it is to quicken the pace suddenly from between the 3rd last and 2nd last hurdle. His best wins have come in this fashion and with no hill to climb he could just steal a march on Hurricane Fly as things tend to happen very quickly round Punchestown. I don't disagree with that. I wonder though whether it should be added that Binocular's ability to inject pace in the latter stages, which he has shown in his best wins, has come in races that were strongly run and impressive on the clock. In other words, it was Binocular's ability to travel well off a fast pace that came to the fore in winning those races. When others were just starting to feel the effects of the strong pace from three out, Binocular was still full of run. I am not sure that in absolute terms he quickened that well in those races from three out, but off the fast pace he was able to quicken to some extent while the opposition were struggling, in varying degrees, simply to stay on at that stage. It was the ease with which Binocular travelled and jumped off a fast pace that most impressed me in his CH win and in his earlier victories over Celestial Halo. The early pace in many recent Punchestown Champion Hurdles has not been that strong and there have been quite a few bunched finishes (or the field has been bunched turning for home). I think Binocular's chances against HF would be better served if there were a bit more pace on from the outset. HF looks a hell of a horse and a tough nut to crack. The one race I would really like to see him tested in though would be facing a top form Binocular on a stiff track with a very strong pace on good ground (i.e. a pace at least as strong as Celestial Halo was able to set in the 2010 Champion Hurdle). Under such circumstances, I think we would see Binocular's ability to quicken from around three out to best effect, though equally we might also then see just what depths there are to HF's brilliance. |
|
By:
I love Bino, but will there be enough pace in the race on Friday. As alluded to here he needs a very strong gallop to show his best, and if it turns into a bit of a sprint he will have no chance against Hurricane Fly unfortunately.
|