Will Skippers Brig (No.42) get in the National?

Probably get in, a couple will pull out through injury etc.

ARBOR SUPREME and Our Monty have crept into the John Smith's Grand National field after the withdrawal of six horses guaranteed a run - including Coral Welsh National winners Synchronised and Notre Pere - at Monday's five-day declaration stage. 
They emerged the 39th and 40th horses in the big-race line-up following handicapper Phil Smith's deliberations on Monday. The BHA handicapper had to separate three horses - Arbor Supreme, Our Monty and Royal Rosa -  all of whom were bracketed on 10st 3lb.
With Midnight Chase, Scotsirish, Ballytrim, Nedzer's Return, Frankie Figg and the late One Cool Cookie making up the eight withdrawals from the Grand National on Monday, Arbor Supreme, Our Monty and Royal Rosa briefly shared 39th place in a race that can only accept 40 runners.

However, Roll Along, guaranteed a place in the line-up, is only 50-50 for the race having been lame over the weekend, meaning Royal Rosa may yet make the cut for the Aintree spectacular.
Immediately below Royal Rosa are anothertrio, Always Waining, Golden Kite and Skippers Brig, all of whom have 10st 2lb to carry and were ranked by Smith. Skippers Brig is now 42 in the list, Golden Kite 43 and Always Waining 44.

Notre Pere, who had been as short as 20-1 for the Grand National, will miss Saturday's showpiece because of the Aintree ground.

His trainer Barry Potts said on Tuesday morning: "We've decided to give Aintree a miss as the ground isn't going to be soft enough to be suitable for Notre Pere.

"We will consider the Irish Grand National or maybe Punchestown for him, if the ground is suitable."

Synchronised could also head to Punchestown with O'Neill wary of running him just three weeks after his third place in the MidlandsGrand National at Uttoxeter.

"It's not so long ago that he ran," O'Neill said. "He had a hard enough race there and we've decided to give Aintree a miss. There is also the chance of getting softer ground in Ireland and that could be his next race."

Notre Pere's defection means that Andrew Lynch will now ride the Dessie Hughes-trained Vic Venturi, while Robbie McNamara and Robbie Power, winner of the race on Silver Birch in 2007, have been confirmed to ride Majestic Concorde and Killyglen respectively.

Skippers Brig will get in at #40, however nr nb in operation now, but i think the ground will be a little to quick for him.

GL

jesus - what is your rationale for SB getting in?. You may be right, but still needs two to come out!.  Roll Along uncertain to run but that lets Royal Rosa.

I cant remember that last time the 40 stood their ground at the 5/4 day decs, min 2 always come out.

And in particular this year i feel certain that the ground by friday morning will scare 2 or 3 others away maybe even SB himself.

Plus the dreded Self Cert

however as i said no loss here as NR NB, so if i wanted to back it id get the best price i could in the village now before he's dec,

Thanks Jesus.  Hope you are right - I have a little ap ticket on Always Waining at a very long price and had given up hope.

Good luck to you, thats what i always thought it would eventually go down to. I hope you make it.

What about That's Rhythm? The only horse in the field not jocked up - likely nr?


Now jocked up. :(

I'm very interested as well having put £10 on Skippers Brig at 180/1 after his last win.  I love the horse to bits but apart from him getting in I doubt they would run him if the going didn't have soft in somewhere in the discription TBH.  There seems to be enough rain around but the temps are due to be high on Fri/Sat and that could scupper things (no pun intended).

I'm backing Quinz in the hope Johnson doesn't feck up like he did on What's Up Boys some years ago.

I AM with u BLACKBARN ALWAYS WAINING £25.83 @ average 280 dont look like getting a run

Another one here for AW. Only 200's though. I think he will have a very good chance if he gets in. Loves fences, will get ground he loves, bottom weight and his time of year. I think at least 2 more will come out I think he may end up No 41 though. Will back him in Topham anyway after doing so last year.

If I understand correctly, the handicapper has ranked the three on 10st-2 and Always Waining is ranked the third of the three (position 44). IF enough horses come out could one or more horses on 10st 2lbs get a run??

^^^Sorry meant 10st-1 ^^^^

Skippers Brig will get in if two come out of the current top 40.  One is def coming out and another is 50/50.

Blackbarn think its only reserves that can get in now? not 100% though and then reserves, as discussed above, can only get in prior to 2 day decs.

Hoping he doesnt get in tbh, think he'll honk up in the Scottish version

Shrewd - you are probably correct, although I was surprised to see money available on here to lay for horses below the 10st 2 mark.

It seems that there are a few horses where decisions will be made AFTER the decs stage and it would be very disappointing (disgraceful?) if the final number of runners were less than 40. 

In my view, they should keep going down the weights until the dec stage and THEN declare the reserves to cover post dec withdrawals.

Since nobody else has mentioned Golden Kite, may I declare my interest, he splits SB and AW

Just checked the BHA rules!!  Final decs are Thursday at 10am. Maximum of 40 entries plus FOUR reserves. This means at the present time Royal Rosa, Skippers Brig, Golden Kite and Always Waining in that order would be the four reserves. Obviously any non declarers takes us into those weighted to carry 10-1 - Next reserve = Faasel??

Newbie question but what are the chances a reserve will get in the race? Do you get your money back if it is a non runner on betfair?

Our Monty out, so one more comes out and SB gets in.

jesusisback
I cant remember that last time the 40 stood their ground at the 5/4 day decs, min 2 always come out.

Last year

http://www.online-betting
-guide.co.uk/news/18226183/
Grand+National+2010+Declarations
+See+No+Drop+Outs+As+Top+40+Stand
+Their+Ground.html

Please can someone help me out - Is the cut off for reserves to get a run if necessary Friday at 9 or Saturday at 9?

99% sure its Friday

Strontium - pretty sure it is Friday, or at least it was last year.

saturday i believe

Thanks.

9am Friday is the cut-off. Just need one more to come out
70 on betfair is far too big, money back if it doesn't run

traveltips - how does your money back thing work. Shirley the market is antepost (bets lost) until final decs at 10am tomorrow morning. Nice try!!

Blacky, you get your money back ante post if your horse is declared but misses the cut. That's how the money back thing works.

Don't get too excited about Skippers Brig the warm weather and knock on effect on the going makes his participation very unlikely IMHO.  As I said before connections won't run unless soft is in the gong descriptio, but they won't make the decision to publicly take him out when they are in with a chance of getting their entry fees refunded.  In the same way Our Monty connections waited before withdrawing until they knew the entry fees were lost.

he'll get a run now if connections want to run. roll along and full monty coming out get him in.

can i just confirm - if Always Waining is a reserve, does that mean he is balloted out if no other horses come out before the race? i.e. stakes returned?

Yup

cheers

Tatie - Thanks from me too for the reply to mine earlier.

So he got in as i thought,,

Always waining first reserve, he may still run Blackbarn, u never no

Excellent now the decision is should I lay off some of my £10 @ 180.0 ?

Thee must be a big doubt about the connections running on the ground and now they have forfeited entry fees we will fins out soon.

Is Always Waining the first reserve?

Hope Always Waining gets in as have done this at huge prices thinking the field could cut up & he sneak in.

He's in.

Yes he is.

Any chance Geraghty will ride Always Waining if he gets in?

Pulled out of Cheltenham on account of the ground, so his participation must be in doubt.