Here we go! The Northern Alliance gamble is on!

viktor now 40s. Montys part II [;)].

What price will the Bookmakers put up for Mon Parrain if he goes for the Topham iyo Roger???

60 on here

I've been hoovering up the silly prices, got a few quid on ranging 110 to 150 and a decent amount on the place  market as well.
Been fairly solid around 50-60 for a few days now, I give him a solid chance.
You know the high st will shorten up every horse like NA, 40s now I expect him to go off 20s or thereabouts

Considering it is a 40 runner race there are not many that will get in priced over 40/1.

Great that Geraghty's been booked - I backed the horse last week at 130 and backed again at 70 when the jockey announcement was made. Think the horse has a decent chance - it's the National after all but he's always looked like further than three miles would do him do harm (although such a dramatic step-up is a step into the unknown) and good ground is perfect for him.

i have had 20 quid@ 130 and 20quid @80,i really like his profile,but nagging doubt about staying the trip

When he won the Kerry National at Listowel at yh beginning of last season over 3 miles the trainer said after the race that he was worried about the horse staying 3 miles. In the end he did and beat a good yardstick in Church Island.

The form book commented that it was a race where no prisnors were taken regarding the gallop that was set. He was briefly headed at the last but kept on best in the run in.

He's certainly an interesting outsider who jumps well, will enjoy the decent ground and has a fantastic jockey booked.

Wont stay and the ground will go against him, also seems like martins forgotten how pull a plot, been quiet a while and had the fingers burnt a lot too.

Could be the one for my Auntie Mary.

this horse does not stay,
HOPE THIS HELPS

David's Lad was the one this lot should have won the National with , I don't think this horse is anything like the quality needed to win .

Geraghty does

obviously this nag was never going to go off at 100/1 or anything like it,
people just look at who hes trained by and add in that its a handicap and put 2 and 2 together and come up with 7!id personally be surprised if he finishes in the top 10

ticks most of the boxes ... youre getting 40s that he stays and he will be given every chance from the saddle

he is worth a pop imvho

gazovic he has proved numerous times that he does not stay

he's only attempted 3m twice

its 1/40 that your right of course

Okay evra, we get the message. Now,as you are so much in the know, give us the winner.

evra 04 Apr 11 12:28   

this horse does not stay,
HOPE THIS HELPS 

He won 93k by outstaying Church Island (out and out stayer) & Royal County Star (2nd in Irish National).

The only other time he's tried the trip he made a bad mistake.

broken drum,wont be beaten imo

Looks like 40s will be gone today.

Dosage:

Northern Alliance (2-0-11-4-5) DP 22, DI 0.52, CD -0.45.

Only 50/50 to make the race as per Twitter reports

CONNECTIONS of Northern Alliance may wait until the day of the race before deciding whether or not the ten-year-old will take his chance in the John Smith's Grand National.

Tony Martin,trainer of the 33-1 chance for Saturday's race, warned on Tuesday that Northern Alliance had met with a slight setback.

He said: "He has a bit of a stone bruise and I don't know where we stand with him at the moment, but it's probably 50-50 whether he runs.

"Fitness wise, we're okay and we'll keep him going, but we might not know until Saturday, so he could well be declared and we'll make our mind up on the day."

Barry Geraghty, who won the Grand National in 2003 on Monty's Pass, is due to ride Northern Alliance.

gutted just layed off

or more Hokey Cokey

mind you his price should rocket back up again....

Face it, you could turn yourself into a pretzel trying to figure out WTF is going on here based on the market and the trainer.

Keep calm and carry on

Is their a suggestion here that the trainer is lying about an injury to his horse??

Maybe we are all getting too cynical ...PP audioteam reported money for horse on twitter earlier today and it shortened up on here and on other books before the announcement.

My impression is that most of these in and out horses ( Aegean Dawn most recent one I can think of ) under perform even if they eventually do show.

martin a bigger gangster than charles byrnes.............allegedly[;)]

i blame this thread,the op has set off a massive gamble and tony missed all the fancy prices and is not a bit happy

ive backed this at over 500, honestly, on for 2 quid and ive laid it for 4 quid. have others too, or noir de somosa, which i reckon punters will latch on to on the day, got that at 240 and 180 for 4 quid, midnight club at 55 (all backed in january, couldnt believe it when i saw 33 for northern alliance at hills 2day. also backed faasel at over 500 (much lower now). lost out on a few tho too, backed wogan at over 500, nedzers return and tatenen at 330, all nonners, and backed junior at 28 and  merigo at 36. also got backstage at 60 and a couple of others that havent moved much. but i'm quite happy with what i got ante post, especially northern alliance and or noir de somosa, which i'm sure will plummet in the coming days

what does that dosage reflect grade1?

Dosage Time:

For those unfamilar with dosage. What is dosage?

Dosage is a mathematical way to find a horses stamina. It involves 4 generation of a horse’s parentage and howmany of its sires are ‘Chef-de-race’. Sire gets 16 points, grand sire 8, great grand sire 4 and finally any great great grand sires 2 points each, but only if they are chef-de-race sires.
cut and paste ...


A quick way is to go to http://www.pedigreequery.com where those nice people have done all the hard work for you.
**IF YOU TYPE IN A HORSES NAME THEN CHECK THE SPELLING AND SOMETIMES ON MULTIPLE CHOICE CHECK ITS DIRECT PARENTS** ie triple grand national winner Red Rum is sired by Quorum and not Charices.

When you type in and got your horse you will see the initals DP (stands for Dosage Profile) and five numbers separated by dashes in Red Rum’s case these are 2-2-1-7-0. These are in order:

Brilliant (influence for speed)
Intermediate (influence for speed)
Classic (influence for speed and stamina)
Solid (influence for stamina)
Professional (influence for stamina)

After the five figues is a number in brackets, in Red Rum’s example this is 12. This is the product of the previous 5 figures 2+2+1+7+0=12.
It is always an even number and always within the range of 0 to 64 (inclusive). The higher the DP the more chef-de-sire the are in a horses pedigree and in theory the classier a horse is.

The DI stands for Dosage Index and is the ratio of speed to stamina. In Red Rum’s case its (2+2+0.5)/(0.5+7+0)=0.60 the DI is rounded to nearest hundredth. As you can see any points in classic is split evenly between the two. A DI of 1.00 is perfect balance, less than 1.00 means more stamina.

The CD stands for Centre Of Disribution and is calculated by doubling the Brilliant points adding them to the Intermediate Points then deducting both the Solid points and double the professional points. Then dividing the answer by the DP (dosage Profile). So in Red’s Rum case it (Brilliant) 2×2=4, (Intermediate)4+2=6, (Solid)6-7= -1,(Professional)-1-(0×2)=-1
Then divide -1 by 12 and round to nearest hundredth. -0.08. A CD of 0.00 is a pefect balance, while in this case a negative figure shows stamina.

So in that case, and correct me if I am wrong, Northern Alliance's DI figure of 0.52 means his breeding is further towards stamina than Red Rum as does his CD figure of -0.45?

If he pulls out on the morning that means its too late for a reserve to get in in the national, correct?

^^^
Yes, it's a very unsatisfactory set of affairs as it ruins someone else's day.

I believe so dude, I think that anything pulling out after the 48 hours decs means one runner for the race, many of them usually have other engagements at Aintree which means the nearest reserves could have run Thur/Fri

That's right Dude - no sub if he's pulled out Saturday morning.

Grade 1, that's fantastic stuff!

Ok cheers for confirming. Praying Always Waining gets in will be furious if only 39 run. Surely they must know before they travel if its a problem that has came up earlier in the week.

michrich - yes thats what it suggests

beryl - not my work Neil S on grandnationalbog

Hope it's just Tony pulling a stroke!!!!! He'd gain legendary status in my book if this ends up winning on Saturday!

Although I agree with the earlier poster - seems to be the case that when these stone bruise type injures happen a few days before a big race, the intended runner either dosen't run or else does, and runs no sort of race.

Tony should know about reserves as well. Isn't it well known that the morning of the Thyestes five years ago, he made a few phone calls, got Dun Doire in, and the horse hacked up!?

i too hope its good oul tony pulling a stroke,then when he lines up i hope he hits the deck at the first,would be poetic justice