Grand National Stats and Trends analysis

as i always do for big races i've had a go at applying a set of statistics to each of the runners for this years national.

here are the statistics i have used:


Aged 8-12 (63/63)

Finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd in a race that season (22/22)

Carried 11st 1lb or less (21/22)

Rated at least 135 (22/22)

Achieved an RPR of at least 123 (20/20)

Achieved an RPR of at least 141 (18/21)

Ran within the last 52 days (22/22)

Bred in GB / IRE / NZ (21/22)

Finished in first 3 in chase over 3m3.5f+ (19/22)
Finished in first 3 in chase over 3m3.5f+ if ran in one (19/20)

Won a hcap chase (21/22) exeption G2 winner

Won over at least 3m (22/22) red marauder hurdle only

Won a chase worth at least 17k (18/19) including the last 17 winners

Won at minimum a B / C2 Grade handicap chase (20/20)

Won at least 3 chases (22/22)

Those that ran and completed at Aintree over fences must have been placed on at least one occasion (8/8)

Never started career on the flat (22/22)

If ran in Grand National before had been in top 6 or fell / unseated (5/6)

Blinkered Winners (2/22) neither held up

Had at least 2 runs this season (23/23)



and here are the results for each horse:

Don’t push it        x21/22 weight        x22/22 form    x18/21 rpr

Tidal bay                x21/22 weight        x21/22 hcap win    x21/22 dist

Midnight chase            x21/22 weight       

Synchronised        x21/22 weight       

Vic venturi        x22/22 form    x19/20 3m3f+ form    x21/22 weight

What a friend        x21/22 hcap win    x21/22 weight

Majestic concorde    x21/22 weight        x22/22 sr    x22/22 nh bred

Or noir de somoza    x21/22 weight        x21/22 fr bred        x21/22 hcap win

Dooneys gate        x21/22 weight       

Scotsirish                x21/22 weight        x22/22 dist   

Big fella thanks    x19/20 3m3f+ form    x22/22 chase wins   

Ballabriggs                   

The tother one        x22/22 sr    x19/20 3m3f+ form    x21/22 hcap chase

Niche market        x22/22 form    x22/22 chase wins    x8/8 aintree form

The midnight club    x21/22 won hcap    x22/22 chase wins

Backstage        x21/22 french        x18/21 rpr    x8/8 aintree form

Chief dan george    x19/20 3m3f+ form

Silver by nature   

Notre pere        x21/22 french        x8/8 aintree form

Calgary bay        x22/22 sr      x22/22 chase wins        x8/8 aintree form

Killyglen                x18/21 rpr    x19/20 3m3f+ form    x21/22 hcap win

Oscar time        x22/22 chase wins 
       
Ballytrim       
       
Becauseicouldntsee     x22/22 sr    x21/22 won hcap    x22/22 chase wins

Comply or die        x18/21 rpr   

Nedzers return        x20/20 rpr    x22/22 sr    x22/22 dist wins   

Northern alliance   

Quinz            x63/63 age    x21/22 french       

Quolibet                x63/63 age    x18/21 rpr    x21/22 french

Grand slam hero    x19/20 3m3f+ form    x22/22 sr   

Roll along                x22/22 form    x18/21 rpr    x22/22 chase wins

King fontaine        x19/20 3m3f+ form   

State of play        x22/22 sr   

Hello bud                x63/63 age    x22/22 sr   

In compliance        x21/22 hcap win    x22/22 dist wins    x8/8 aintree form

Santas son        x18/21 rpr    x22/22 dist wins   

West end rocker   

Bluesea cracker    x22/22 form    x18/21 rpr   

Cant buy time        x22/22 form    x18/21 rpr   

Character building    x5/6 national form   

Ornais            x21/22 french        x20/20 rpr    x19/20 3m3f+ form   

Piraya            x21/22 french        x19/20 3m3f+ form    x22/22 dist wins

Surface to air        x20/20 rpr    x22/22 nh bred    x23/23 runs this sns

That’s rhythm        x22/22 sr    x21/22 french          x3m3f+ form

Arbour supreme   

Frankie fig        x22/22 sr   

One cool cookie     x19/20 3m3f+ form    x21/22 won hcap   

Our monty        x22/22 sr    x22/22 flat bred   

Royal rosa        x21/22 french        x22/22 chase wins    x21/22 dist

Always waining    x22/22 form    x18/21 rpr    x19/20 3m3f+ form

Golden kite       

Skippers brig        x18/19 17k chase

Belon gale        x22/22 chase wins    x18/19 17k chase    x20/20 C2 win

Faasel            x18/21 rpr    x22/22 flat bred    x21/22 hcap win

Le beau bai        x21/22 french        x18/19 17k chase   

Merigo            x21/22 french        x20/20 rpr   

Putney bridge        x22/22 sr    x18/21 rpr    x22/22 dist

Askthemaster        x22/22 dist    x22/22 chase wins    x18/19 17k chase

Dev                    x22/22 dist    x18/21 rpr    x22/22 runs this sns

Giles cross        x21/22 won hcap    x22/22 chase wins   


SHORTLIST

Golden kite -

seems very genuine. last chase run was in winning 50k munster national when battling all the way to line. from a relatively small    trainer who is trying to make his mark. proven on the likely good ground. if this horse gets in off a very low weight there will alot worse long shots in the race.

Skippers brig -

again a horse that needs a few dropping out to actually get a run in the race. proven mud lark earlier in career and its not likely to be as soft as he presumably wants it. however i take great heart from his last run when travelling better than ballabriggs and defeating ballabriggs at kelso (slowly run race) and also the fact the horse had enough pace to be placed in a **** handicap chase at cheltenham last season. if skippers brigg get a run and nicky richards deems the ground suitable i will have him on my side.

Arbour supreme -

at a glance seems to be a horse who has had a lovely preparation for the race and produced a very solid effort last time against the national favourite the midnight club at fairyhouse. on that running he seems to have a fantastic weight here. however it does concern me that in the last 2 seasons he has managed to underperform in a welsh national, the english national and earlier in the irish national. for me he has national questions to answer and im not overly keen.

Character building -

had a good prep this season in running fairly regularly since october and seemingly coming to hand at the right time for another shot at the national having been 7th last year. he is still 1 pound higher than his last winning mark 2 years ago in the kim muir at cheltenham. he is now 11 and im not convinced he is a better horse than 2 years ago. basically i think character building on a going day will probably run a very nice race in the national. but for me he isnt a national winner.

West end rocker -

west end rocker had a very progressive profile for a staying chaser until a blip last time out at haydock on desperate ground when more horses seemed to pull up than finish. i am always willing to forgive a horse 1 bad run and that is very much the case here. the form of alan kings yard last season may have helped horses like this to become well handicapped this season. has to defy a career highest mark and has 2 poor efforts in the book when racing over extreme trips as he has pulled up in the scottish national last season. hes not a horse im strongly supporting but i will have at least a cover bet on him at nice odds.

King fontaine -

king fontaine is another horse who pulled up at haydock in the race won by silver by nature. again i will forgive a horse 1 bad run. on watching that race back it was a strange and very quick decision to pull the horse up after 1 mistake when travelling right into contention. the horse was not knocked about and was then saved for the festival handicap chase at the festival. he ran a very respectable race there as the pace was breakneck and he made several mistakes at the stiff cheltenham fences and ran on stoutly to take 5th. the horse is also entered in the scottish national so may not run at aintree. if he does i think he has a good ew chance if he takes to the unique fences.

Ballytrim -

ballytrim is another with a solid preparation for the national having ran well enough this season. i just fear with this 1 that he may not be that well handicapped and has shown his best form already. for that reason im not to keen. another who doesnt seem to want good ground.

Silver by nature -

its quite simply with silver by nature. if the rain comes get on him big because he has a fantastic mark considering his last win and will get a great racing weight with the likes of dont push it keeping the weights where they are. what worries me is that he seems to run below his best unless the ground is soft or heavy. im of the opinion the conditions need to suit to win this race and while he is well handicapped and a superb stayer i feel his winning chances are ground dependant. ill be betting on the day if soft appears in the going description.

Chief dan george -

chief dan george was a horse i had antepost last year for the race. unfortunately he missed out by a couple of horses if i remember rightly. i like the horse and like the way he can be campaigned for a big race by connections. i think conditions wise he is not ground dependant and will be happy enough on any ground. it does however worry me that he fell last time. i hope this hasnt affected his confidence. he also won the william hill at last years festival by a head off a mark of 142 and now needs to be up to winning off 148. i wont let him run unbacked tho!

Ballabriggs -

the best statistical profile in the race in my opinion. having won at the cheltenham festival last year off a mark of 140 and with 11st 12 on his back he has been campaigned with this race in mind from that point. i think this horse has a great racing weight, will definately travel early on in the race and give himself a chance and is a very solid jumper. it will then be into the unknown stamina wise. however it could be this extra distance that he will improve for. will be backing him.

Oscar time -

a horse that is very progressive and has form that gives him about as much chance as the favourite the midnight club. handles big fields well and stays well. negatives are the fact that he is mr lynch's only high class horse and he represents smaller connections than every other fancied runner. he also has to prove himself on good ground unless the rain comes. undecided on whether to back yet.

Of the other runners i respect the midnight club the most. while he doesnt fit with the statistics ideally he is essentially a classy individual running off under 11st. This in itself commands respect. He also has Ruby Walsh in the saddle and represents top connections. I also believe the horse is all stamina. I will have a bet on him regardless of the stats!