Grand National
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01 Apr 11
12:16
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Date Joined:
18 Feb 06
as i always do for big races i've had a go at applying a set of statistics to each of the runners for this years national.
here are the statistics i have used:
Aged 8-12 (63/63)
Finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd in a race that season (22/22)
Carried 11st 1lb or less (21/22)
Rated at least 135 (22/22)
Achieved an RPR of at least 123 (20/20)
Achieved an RPR of at least 141 (18/21)
Ran within the last 52 days (22/22)
Bred in GB / IRE / NZ (21/22)
Finished in first 3 in chase over 3m3.5f+ (19/22)
Finished in first 3 in chase over 3m3.5f+ if ran in one (19/20)
Won a hcap chase (21/22) exeption G2 winner
Won over at least 3m (22/22) red marauder hurdle only
Won a chase worth at least 17k (18/19) including the last 17 winners
Won at minimum a B / C2 Grade handicap chase (20/20)
Won at least 3 chases (22/22)
Those that ran and completed at Aintree over fences must have been placed on at least one occasion (8/8)
Never started career on the flat (22/22)
If ran in Grand National before had been in top 6 or fell / unseated (5/6)
Blinkered Winners (2/22) neither held up
Had at least 2 runs this season (23/23)
and here are the results for each horse:
Don’t push it x21/22 weight x22/22 form x18/21 rpr
Tidal bay x21/22 weight x21/22 hcap win x21/22 dist
Midnight chase x21/22 weight
Synchronised x21/22 weight
Vic venturi x22/22 form x19/20 3m3f+ form x21/22 weight
What a friend x21/22 hcap win x21/22 weight
Majestic concorde x21/22 weight x22/22 sr x22/22 nh bred
Or noir de somoza x21/22 weight x21/22 fr bred x21/22 hcap win
Dooneys gate x21/22 weight
Scotsirish x21/22 weight x22/22 dist
Big fella thanks x19/20 3m3f+ form x22/22 chase wins
Ballabriggs
The tother one x22/22 sr x19/20 3m3f+ form x21/22 hcap chase
Niche market x22/22 form x22/22 chase wins x8/8 aintree form
The midnight club x21/22 won hcap x22/22 chase wins
Backstage x21/22 french x18/21 rpr x8/8 aintree form
Chief dan george x19/20 3m3f+ form
Silver by nature
Notre pere x21/22 french x8/8 aintree form
Calgary bay x22/22 sr x22/22 chase wins x8/8 aintree form
Killyglen x18/21 rpr x19/20 3m3f+ form x21/22 hcap win
Oscar time x22/22 chase wins
Ballytrim
Becauseicouldntsee x22/22 sr x21/22 won hcap x22/22 chase wins
Comply or die x18/21 rpr
Nedzers return x20/20 rpr x22/22 sr x22/22 dist wins
Northern alliance
Quinz x63/63 age x21/22 french
Quolibet x63/63 age x18/21 rpr x21/22 french
Grand slam hero x19/20 3m3f+ form x22/22 sr
Roll along x22/22 form x18/21 rpr x22/22 chase wins
King fontaine x19/20 3m3f+ form
State of play x22/22 sr
Hello bud x63/63 age x22/22 sr
In compliance x21/22 hcap win x22/22 dist wins x8/8 aintree form
Santas son x18/21 rpr x22/22 dist wins
West end rocker
Bluesea cracker x22/22 form x18/21 rpr
Cant buy time x22/22 form x18/21 rpr
Character building x5/6 national form
Ornais x21/22 french x20/20 rpr x19/20 3m3f+ form
Piraya x21/22 french x19/20 3m3f+ form x22/22 dist wins
Surface to air x20/20 rpr x22/22 nh bred x23/23 runs this sns
That’s rhythm x22/22 sr x21/22 french x3m3f+ form
Arbour supreme
Frankie fig x22/22 sr
One cool cookie x19/20 3m3f+ form x21/22 won hcap
Our monty x22/22 sr x22/22 flat bred
Royal rosa x21/22 french x22/22 chase wins x21/22 dist
Always waining x22/22 form x18/21 rpr x19/20 3m3f+ form
Golden kite
Skippers brig x18/19 17k chase
Belon gale x22/22 chase wins x18/19 17k chase x20/20 C2 win
Faasel x18/21 rpr x22/22 flat bred x21/22 hcap win
Le beau bai x21/22 french x18/19 17k chase
Merigo x21/22 french x20/20 rpr
Putney bridge x22/22 sr x18/21 rpr x22/22 dist
Askthemaster x22/22 dist x22/22 chase wins x18/19 17k chase
Dev x22/22 dist x18/21 rpr x22/22 runs this sns
Giles cross x21/22 won hcap x22/22 chase wins
SHORTLIST
Golden kite -
seems very genuine. last chase run was in winning 50k munster national when battling all the way to line. from a relatively small trainer who is trying to make his mark. proven on the likely good ground. if this horse gets in off a very low weight there will alot worse long shots in the race.
Skippers brig -
again a horse that needs a few dropping out to actually get a run in the race. proven mud lark earlier in career and its not likely to be as soft as he presumably wants it. however i take great heart from his last run when travelling better than ballabriggs and defeating ballabriggs at kelso (slowly run race) and also the fact the horse had enough pace to be placed in a **** handicap chase at cheltenham last season. if skippers brigg get a run and nicky richards deems the ground suitable i will have him on my side.
Arbour supreme -
at a glance seems to be a horse who has had a lovely preparation for the race and produced a very solid effort last time against the national favourite the midnight club at fairyhouse. on that running he seems to have a fantastic weight here. however it does concern me that in the last 2 seasons he has managed to underperform in a welsh national, the english national and earlier in the irish national. for me he has national questions to answer and im not overly keen.
Character building -
had a good prep this season in running fairly regularly since october and seemingly coming to hand at the right time for another shot at the national having been 7th last year. he is still 1 pound higher than his last winning mark 2 years ago in the kim muir at cheltenham. he is now 11 and im not convinced he is a better horse than 2 years ago. basically i think character building on a going day will probably run a very nice race in the national. but for me he isnt a national winner.
West end rocker -
west end rocker had a very progressive profile for a staying chaser until a blip last time out at haydock on desperate ground when more horses seemed to pull up than finish. i am always willing to forgive a horse 1 bad run and that is very much the case here. the form of alan kings yard last season may have helped horses like this to become well handicapped this season. has to defy a career highest mark and has 2 poor efforts in the book when racing over extreme trips as he has pulled up in the scottish national last season. hes not a horse im strongly supporting but i will have at least a cover bet on him at nice odds.
King fontaine -
king fontaine is another horse who pulled up at haydock in the race won by silver by nature. again i will forgive a horse 1 bad run. on watching that race back it was a strange and very quick decision to pull the horse up after 1 mistake when travelling right into contention. the horse was not knocked about and was then saved for the festival handicap chase at the festival. he ran a very respectable race there as the pace was breakneck and he made several mistakes at the stiff cheltenham fences and ran on stoutly to take 5th. the horse is also entered in the scottish national so may not run at aintree. if he does i think he has a good ew chance if he takes to the unique fences.
Ballytrim -
ballytrim is another with a solid preparation for the national having ran well enough this season. i just fear with this 1 that he may not be that well handicapped and has shown his best form already. for that reason im not to keen. another who doesnt seem to want good ground.
Silver by nature -
its quite simply with silver by nature. if the rain comes get on him big because he has a fantastic mark considering his last win and will get a great racing weight with the likes of dont push it keeping the weights where they are. what worries me is that he seems to run below his best unless the ground is soft or heavy. im of the opinion the conditions need to suit to win this race and while he is well handicapped and a superb stayer i feel his winning chances are ground dependant. ill be betting on the day if soft appears in the going description.
Chief dan george -
chief dan george was a horse i had antepost last year for the race. unfortunately he missed out by a couple of horses if i remember rightly. i like the horse and like the way he can be campaigned for a big race by connections. i think conditions wise he is not ground dependant and will be happy enough on any ground. it does however worry me that he fell last time. i hope this hasnt affected his confidence. he also won the william hill at last years festival by a head off a mark of 142 and now needs to be up to winning off 148. i wont let him run unbacked tho!
Ballabriggs -
the best statistical profile in the race in my opinion. having won at the cheltenham festival last year off a mark of 140 and with 11st 12 on his back he has been campaigned with this race in mind from that point. i think this horse has a great racing weight, will definately travel early on in the race and give himself a chance and is a very solid jumper. it will then be into the unknown stamina wise. however it could be this extra distance that he will improve for. will be backing him.
Oscar time -
a horse that is very progressive and has form that gives him about as much chance as the favourite the midnight club. handles big fields well and stays well. negatives are the fact that he is mr lynch's only high class horse and he represents smaller connections than every other fancied runner. he also has to prove himself on good ground unless the rain comes. undecided on whether to back yet.
Of the other runners i respect the midnight club the most. while he doesnt fit with the statistics ideally he is essentially a classy individual running off under 11st. This in itself commands respect. He also has Ruby Walsh in the saddle and represents top connections. I also believe the horse is all stamina. I will have a bet on him regardless of the stats!
here are the statistics i have used:
Aged 8-12 (63/63)
Finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd in a race that season (22/22)
Carried 11st 1lb or less (21/22)
Rated at least 135 (22/22)
Achieved an RPR of at least 123 (20/20)
Achieved an RPR of at least 141 (18/21)
Ran within the last 52 days (22/22)
Bred in GB / IRE / NZ (21/22)
Finished in first 3 in chase over 3m3.5f+ (19/22)
Finished in first 3 in chase over 3m3.5f+ if ran in one (19/20)
Won a hcap chase (21/22) exeption G2 winner
Won over at least 3m (22/22) red marauder hurdle only
Won a chase worth at least 17k (18/19) including the last 17 winners
Won at minimum a B / C2 Grade handicap chase (20/20)
Won at least 3 chases (22/22)
Those that ran and completed at Aintree over fences must have been placed on at least one occasion (8/8)
Never started career on the flat (22/22)
If ran in Grand National before had been in top 6 or fell / unseated (5/6)
Blinkered Winners (2/22) neither held up
Had at least 2 runs this season (23/23)
and here are the results for each horse:
Don’t push it x21/22 weight x22/22 form x18/21 rpr
Tidal bay x21/22 weight x21/22 hcap win x21/22 dist
Midnight chase x21/22 weight
Synchronised x21/22 weight
Vic venturi x22/22 form x19/20 3m3f+ form x21/22 weight
What a friend x21/22 hcap win x21/22 weight
Majestic concorde x21/22 weight x22/22 sr x22/22 nh bred
Or noir de somoza x21/22 weight x21/22 fr bred x21/22 hcap win
Dooneys gate x21/22 weight
Scotsirish x21/22 weight x22/22 dist
Big fella thanks x19/20 3m3f+ form x22/22 chase wins
Ballabriggs
The tother one x22/22 sr x19/20 3m3f+ form x21/22 hcap chase
Niche market x22/22 form x22/22 chase wins x8/8 aintree form
The midnight club x21/22 won hcap x22/22 chase wins
Backstage x21/22 french x18/21 rpr x8/8 aintree form
Chief dan george x19/20 3m3f+ form
Silver by nature
Notre pere x21/22 french x8/8 aintree form
Calgary bay x22/22 sr x22/22 chase wins x8/8 aintree form
Killyglen x18/21 rpr x19/20 3m3f+ form x21/22 hcap win
Oscar time x22/22 chase wins
Ballytrim
Becauseicouldntsee x22/22 sr x21/22 won hcap x22/22 chase wins
Comply or die x18/21 rpr
Nedzers return x20/20 rpr x22/22 sr x22/22 dist wins
Northern alliance
Quinz x63/63 age x21/22 french
Quolibet x63/63 age x18/21 rpr x21/22 french
Grand slam hero x19/20 3m3f+ form x22/22 sr
Roll along x22/22 form x18/21 rpr x22/22 chase wins
King fontaine x19/20 3m3f+ form
State of play x22/22 sr
Hello bud x63/63 age x22/22 sr
In compliance x21/22 hcap win x22/22 dist wins x8/8 aintree form
Santas son x18/21 rpr x22/22 dist wins
West end rocker
Bluesea cracker x22/22 form x18/21 rpr
Cant buy time x22/22 form x18/21 rpr
Character building x5/6 national form
Ornais x21/22 french x20/20 rpr x19/20 3m3f+ form
Piraya x21/22 french x19/20 3m3f+ form x22/22 dist wins
Surface to air x20/20 rpr x22/22 nh bred x23/23 runs this sns
That’s rhythm x22/22 sr x21/22 french x3m3f+ form
Arbour supreme
Frankie fig x22/22 sr
One cool cookie x19/20 3m3f+ form x21/22 won hcap
Our monty x22/22 sr x22/22 flat bred
Royal rosa x21/22 french x22/22 chase wins x21/22 dist
Always waining x22/22 form x18/21 rpr x19/20 3m3f+ form
Golden kite
Skippers brig x18/19 17k chase
Belon gale x22/22 chase wins x18/19 17k chase x20/20 C2 win
Faasel x18/21 rpr x22/22 flat bred x21/22 hcap win
Le beau bai x21/22 french x18/19 17k chase
Merigo x21/22 french x20/20 rpr
Putney bridge x22/22 sr x18/21 rpr x22/22 dist
Askthemaster x22/22 dist x22/22 chase wins x18/19 17k chase
Dev x22/22 dist x18/21 rpr x22/22 runs this sns
Giles cross x21/22 won hcap x22/22 chase wins
SHORTLIST
Golden kite -
seems very genuine. last chase run was in winning 50k munster national when battling all the way to line. from a relatively small trainer who is trying to make his mark. proven on the likely good ground. if this horse gets in off a very low weight there will alot worse long shots in the race.
Skippers brig -
again a horse that needs a few dropping out to actually get a run in the race. proven mud lark earlier in career and its not likely to be as soft as he presumably wants it. however i take great heart from his last run when travelling better than ballabriggs and defeating ballabriggs at kelso (slowly run race) and also the fact the horse had enough pace to be placed in a **** handicap chase at cheltenham last season. if skippers brigg get a run and nicky richards deems the ground suitable i will have him on my side.
Arbour supreme -
at a glance seems to be a horse who has had a lovely preparation for the race and produced a very solid effort last time against the national favourite the midnight club at fairyhouse. on that running he seems to have a fantastic weight here. however it does concern me that in the last 2 seasons he has managed to underperform in a welsh national, the english national and earlier in the irish national. for me he has national questions to answer and im not overly keen.
Character building -
had a good prep this season in running fairly regularly since october and seemingly coming to hand at the right time for another shot at the national having been 7th last year. he is still 1 pound higher than his last winning mark 2 years ago in the kim muir at cheltenham. he is now 11 and im not convinced he is a better horse than 2 years ago. basically i think character building on a going day will probably run a very nice race in the national. but for me he isnt a national winner.
West end rocker -
west end rocker had a very progressive profile for a staying chaser until a blip last time out at haydock on desperate ground when more horses seemed to pull up than finish. i am always willing to forgive a horse 1 bad run and that is very much the case here. the form of alan kings yard last season may have helped horses like this to become well handicapped this season. has to defy a career highest mark and has 2 poor efforts in the book when racing over extreme trips as he has pulled up in the scottish national last season. hes not a horse im strongly supporting but i will have at least a cover bet on him at nice odds.
King fontaine -
king fontaine is another horse who pulled up at haydock in the race won by silver by nature. again i will forgive a horse 1 bad run. on watching that race back it was a strange and very quick decision to pull the horse up after 1 mistake when travelling right into contention. the horse was not knocked about and was then saved for the festival handicap chase at the festival. he ran a very respectable race there as the pace was breakneck and he made several mistakes at the stiff cheltenham fences and ran on stoutly to take 5th. the horse is also entered in the scottish national so may not run at aintree. if he does i think he has a good ew chance if he takes to the unique fences.
Ballytrim -
ballytrim is another with a solid preparation for the national having ran well enough this season. i just fear with this 1 that he may not be that well handicapped and has shown his best form already. for that reason im not to keen. another who doesnt seem to want good ground.
Silver by nature -
its quite simply with silver by nature. if the rain comes get on him big because he has a fantastic mark considering his last win and will get a great racing weight with the likes of dont push it keeping the weights where they are. what worries me is that he seems to run below his best unless the ground is soft or heavy. im of the opinion the conditions need to suit to win this race and while he is well handicapped and a superb stayer i feel his winning chances are ground dependant. ill be betting on the day if soft appears in the going description.
Chief dan george -
chief dan george was a horse i had antepost last year for the race. unfortunately he missed out by a couple of horses if i remember rightly. i like the horse and like the way he can be campaigned for a big race by connections. i think conditions wise he is not ground dependant and will be happy enough on any ground. it does however worry me that he fell last time. i hope this hasnt affected his confidence. he also won the william hill at last years festival by a head off a mark of 142 and now needs to be up to winning off 148. i wont let him run unbacked tho!
Ballabriggs -
the best statistical profile in the race in my opinion. having won at the cheltenham festival last year off a mark of 140 and with 11st 12 on his back he has been campaigned with this race in mind from that point. i think this horse has a great racing weight, will definately travel early on in the race and give himself a chance and is a very solid jumper. it will then be into the unknown stamina wise. however it could be this extra distance that he will improve for. will be backing him.
Oscar time -
a horse that is very progressive and has form that gives him about as much chance as the favourite the midnight club. handles big fields well and stays well. negatives are the fact that he is mr lynch's only high class horse and he represents smaller connections than every other fancied runner. he also has to prove himself on good ground unless the rain comes. undecided on whether to back yet.
Of the other runners i respect the midnight club the most. while he doesnt fit with the statistics ideally he is essentially a classy individual running off under 11st. This in itself commands respect. He also has Ruby Walsh in the saddle and represents top connections. I also believe the horse is all stamina. I will have a bet on him regardless of the stats!
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Replies: 42
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Worth pointing out that State of Play ticks every box bar the season runs
Since this has been the plan since last year's race rather than resulting from an interrupted preparation if you have any confidence in the trainer this former hennessey winner and gold cup ante post favourite must look a decent stats pick at 25/1 off 10-6 (142) His record over fences after a 3 month+ is: Won Novice Chase Won 30K handicap at national meeting by 16L Won Hennessey off 145 6th in Gold Cup (11.5L behind peak from Kauto) 2nd in Charlie Hall Won Charlie Hall 4th in National off 150 Unplaced in Hennessey 3rd in National off 145 |
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the demps i know sop runs well fresh, but i dont think this race can be won by a first time out runner.
great place bet tho,would be great feet if he wins |
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nice stats bigben,are there any horses what meet the stats, but have left out of your shortlist
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you missed one off the shortlist ...
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Nice Stats,but wasn't Montys Pass 128 or 129 official rating when the weights came out?.Anybody know what the old stopwatch ratings [years ago in the Update]are now called ?they used to be amazing for this race !!!
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pipe...no idea what the OR was for Montys Pass was when the weights came out, but if it's any help he was orginally alloted 10-5, and his Postmark was 175.
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i think montys pass OR was 137..
a lot of previous winners would not get in the race now with there ratings |
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I think he was 139 when he won jasey, but happy to be corrected on that, all I know is that the OR for the top weight when the weights came out was 160.
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Whats the stats for a horse once running over 5f turning into the 4mile 4f staying champion of the world?
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No idea if it happened more than once Mooono?
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I would say the stats are firmly against a horse once running over 5f..Im not clued up when it comes to stats but i highly doubt its ever happend before..But this year i think Majestic Concorde has a great chance..Hes my main hope of the outsiders ive picked..
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Montys Pass ran off 139.
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Mooono, Red Rum's first race was over 5f!
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^ Think he's attempting to yank people's chains
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Yes I was caught out in a quizz. Question was did Lester Piggot ever ride Red Rum said no but of course he did. Started over 5 furlongs strange as it may seem.
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It is a great coincidence that the first race that Red Rum raced in, was at, what was to become his favourite course, Liverpool. On this first occasion he dead headed with Curlicue for first place. This was the companion horse that he was with at the sales! . This was a two year old's selling race run at a distance of 5 furlongs.
In total Red Rum ran at Liverpool seven times, he won four and came second in the other three. In Red Rum's 10 year career he had twenty four different jockeys, Including Lester Piggott, he also had five trainers but in that career he managed to win 3 flat races, 3 hurdle races and also 21 Steeplechases. He was also placed 37 times so he must have taken all the changes in his stride. His obvious love of racing held him in good stead and it is worth saying that he never actually fell in a race although he once unseated his rider and once slipped up (another coincidence was that both of these were at Haydock) . |
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another i shud have mentioned was northern alliance who is in the weights and trained by mr martin so commands respect
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Stats look good for Majestic now then get on them horses once running over 5f..Red Rums first ever race over 5f [smiley:crazy] You learn something knew everyday..
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Great post and very well researched ! It rules out quite a few but still a very open race again this year. Normally you can look at the national field and say half a dozen horses have an outstanding chance stats wise with another 4 or 5 that meet most of the criteria.
Having said that I could not have picked Don't Push It last year purely on the weight Statistic - which in the last 20 or so nationals has been the overriding statistic. But with Hedgehunter and Mon Mome both carrying 11st or more in recent years maybe weight is not so telling a factor. Interesting that both of these horses went on to finish in the frame in the following seasons Gold Cup. I have backed a few as always - Big Fella Thanks in the hope that Ferdy might have discovered a way of getting him to stay the last 3 or 4 furlongs better than Paul Nichols (doubtful though - but the horse has done me a couple of favours and would hate to see him win and not be on). Niche Market - I fancied him last year and like the Irish National statistic. Bluesea Cracker - again for the Irish National factor and backed her before JPM purchased her. Chief Dan George - has won at Aintree over hurdles and seems a spring horse, and after his fall at Cheltenham this year seems somewhat overlooked. Good price on Betfair too. Have also got some silly prices about King Fontaine who although has yet to prove he stays a trip I was taken by his run at Cheltenham and is still improving. Also got some silly prices about Comply or Die - who won't know himself with such a light weight on his back. I have watched last years race a few times recently and he ran a cracker of a race under 11-5 until 3 out, after which Timmy let him come home in his own time. I think he has an outstanding chance again this year and can still be backed @95/1 on betfair. I have not backed him because the prices have gone - but I also like Ballabriggs profile this year. - so may yet have a saver |
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I strongly feel the weights stat is now a thing of the past. Last year the first 2 home (and well clear of the 3rd) carried upwards of 11st 5lb. The year before when Mon Mome won the race, the first 4 home carried upwards of 11st. The compression of the weights is making it much easier for the `higher ability` horses to stamp their authority on the race. What A Friend for example only has to give Ballabriggs 6lb, and on good ground would canter all over Ballabriggs over 3.5 miles but of course the rest is a guessing game. Ballabriggs will jump for fun and this will help bridge the `form` gap though, What A Friend is the pure form horse. Excellent write up.
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Blimey bigbentthehorseman, That's an impressive analysis. Much better than my pin system. One horse that sticks out for me is Putney Bridge. I used to live right beside Putney Bridge and it was quite popular for throwing yourself off if things weren't going very well. No doubt lots of people in Fulham and Putney will be backing it, so lets hope it wins.
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Angel Gabriel mentioned "bridge" in his expert analysis, so perhaps this could be an omen for the race, especially with Micahel Jackson just down the road from Putney Bridge.
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Might be hard to beat it.
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Papillon was 139,def!!!,tho 129 doesnt get you a run these days,i'll check out the result,i seem to have mislaid the original weights that year,pretty sure 129/128/tho.
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the weight stat still has to be taken seriously,but i prefer the official ratings band as an area to eliminate horses.
just because a horse is 11st as opposed to 10 13 dosent mean his chances have gone. im sure i have read a stat were they eliminate everthing 13 pounds above bottom weight |
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If that was the case Jasey, you would have put a line through Dont Push It and Black Apalachi last year.
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Bluesea Cracer
Chief Dan George West End Rocker Those are the three for me. |
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with that stat dont push it would have got in,but from a trends point you would not have backed him
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This race has changed so much in recent years, so much so that using stats from 10 years ago is bonkers imho.
10 years ago almost every horse ran off its OR, now those at the head of the weights get in far more leniently thanks to Mr Smith's compression policy. I personally would only use stats from the point in time he was employed to frame the National weights. I'm not to sure when this was but I would guess around 5 years ago. The thing is when using stats is to recognise when they are evolving, things never stay the same forever. From now on weight will be a stat that I completely disregard for the race. |
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agree with you totally.new trends will come about in time. maybe in 10years time we will be crossing out all weighted below 11st
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I thought y'days blog in the Guardian was interesting...
Last 3 years the number of horses carrying 11st+ was 19, 16 and 18 The average of the three years before that (when the 11st stat seemed to work much better) was 9. Which is what it is this year too. It also looks like the weight range will almost be the max - even with no withdrawals bottom wt is 10-3. Wasnt there an arugment that the weight stat should be 'dont back horses carrying a stone more than the bottom weight' rather than 'dont back over 11st'? |
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Thats true Dog
Yet take last year for example Dont Push It and Black Apalachi both carried a stone or more than the bottom weight. They were also 20L clear of the 3rd. The higher ability horses now have the edge in a `handicap` sense. |
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This is always one of my favourite threads of the year. There always seems to be a difference of opinion as to which Stats/Trends have the greatest significance. It appears clear that over the last few years the "weight" stat is not as important as it once was.
From a personal point of view I always like it when the connections say that this race has been "the plan all season". To that end I have to agree with the conclusions of "bigben" and will be having my 50p Each-Way on Ballabriggs and Oscar Time. I may also have a combination forecast/tricast? on these two with The Midnight Club and Backstage. |
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dunno about State of Play ticking all the boxes
It's 11 years old and the way I would analyse the stats would be to reccommend laying every horse that is not 9 or 10 |
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^ i always think older horses ie 10/11 have a decent record if they are irish bred, frenchies have poor record overall,and the weight stat is becoming outdated, but thats due to the going being good, when we get a wet race then its time to look at the weight issue again
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Another interesting pointer is that since 1998 at least British horses (with the exception of Red Marauder in that dodgey race) had all produced or equalled their best RPR in the year of the race. The exceptions are the Irish trained horses Hedgehunter,Bobbyjo and Papillon who posted their best the previous year.
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Thanks very much for the analysis....am very grateful you took a lot of the work out of it for those of us who like stats, and nailed the winner. Excellent stuff and much appreciated.
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Good stuff. Doing the same next year for us, bigben?
 You do the combination 'casts, Notlob? Happy days if so. |
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Many thanks BigBen. I know nothing about horses so come to this forum every year for trends analysis. Had a tenner on Ballabriggs and also a £2 forecast of Ballabriggs and Oscar Time. Never had a big win on the National before and could hardly speak after the finish. Cheers!
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