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evra
30 Mar 11 20:25
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Date Joined: 17 Nov 10
| Topic/replies: 15,799 | Blogger: evra's blog
why are connections of bino ducking a clash with the champ hurricane fly??why not come over to punchestown for a more suitable race over 2 miles rather than running over 2m 4f,madness! given binos owner is irish i thought they may have had more balls
Pause Switch to Standard View binocular connections running scared??
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Report buddeliea April 5, 2011 12:14 PM BST
he did,and i had thought of that,but this is a lot harder.He could well cope ok,but its still a point given the odds.

Oscar not in the 3m race CV.
Report evra April 5, 2011 12:27 PM BST
what are his odds buddeliea?
Report evra April 5, 2011 1:50 PM BST
having looked at the prices on here just now,i couldnt back PC @ 5/4,he is the most likely winner imo but wouldnt go near him @ his current price
Report neill d April 5, 2011 3:42 PM BST
Are we sure Peddlars is gonna improve that much for 2mile4, I thought 2mile 5 stretched him in the Neptune despite him winning.
Report Mr Mischief April 5, 2011 3:49 PM BST
Peddlars Cross > Banker Material, tuvmCool
Report buddeliea April 5, 2011 5:18 PM BST
Neil,
he stayed 2m 5 at Cheltenham as a novice,so see no reason why he should not stay a furlong less at Aintree as a senior.
Report CVByrne April 5, 2011 5:46 PM BST
Oscar for e/w for me. Wont get rich backing PC or Binocular at those odds.
Report TheFormMan April 5, 2011 6:51 PM BST
There are going to be lots of burnt fingers with all you PC fans.
Binocular here is as good as BUYING MONEY
Report evra April 5, 2011 7:11 PM BST
TheFormMan u are guessing that he is going to stay,FACT
Report TheFormMan April 5, 2011 7:21 PM BST
evra Binocular wins Aintree Hurdle 2011,FACT Cool
Report Masterminded April 5, 2011 8:10 PM BST
Lol at this thread. Binocular will win at Aintree at his best. Who knows he may yet go to Ireland as he will be going to JP's at the end of the season anyway. Why would they even think about missing Aintree for Punchestown. The Aintree race looks tailor made for him.
Report CVByrne April 5, 2011 8:19 PM BST
Problem is Both PC and Binocular were being trained to peak for the Champion Hurdle, anyone who thinks the best horse wins at Aintree is very new to the game indeed. We've no idea how any horse will be at Aintree other than horses specifically aimed at the meeting.

All I need is another General Miller and it'll win as much as Big Bucks, Denman, Zarkander, Bino/PC and then some would this year.
Report thefarmer April 5, 2011 8:34 PM BST
If the ground is on the soft side then i suspect that Peddlers Cross will beat Binocular fairly easily again just as he did on similar ground at Newbury. Binocular is a fast ground horse whose turn of foot will be blunted by soft ground. It is no coincidence that he ran his best race in last years champion on good ground and has ran below par on all his races since on ground softer than he needs. That is before we even get to the step up in trip.
Report TheFormMan April 5, 2011 8:47 PM BST
CV you seem to have a lack of understanding as to how easy it is for trainers to keep horses at the peak of there fitness even taking into accout interruptions and such as Binocular had,a perfect example is that Long Run was being trained to be spot on for the King George and the fact that the race was delayed almost 3 weeks made no difference whatsoever to his fitness or performance,he was simply kept ticking over,from the second that Henderson found out that Bino would not line up in the CH he has been trained to the minute for this race regardless of what information has been made public,he will be at 100% peak and as fit and well as he has ever been for a race and did one of his best ever pieces of work last week and as for PC,well everything that we have seen from him including the fact that he ran upto his best at both festivals last season should tell you that he will run upto and reproduce his CH run to the pound on saturday,i have no doubt that every single one of the graded races at the Aintree festival will be won by a horse that competed at Cheltenham
Report TheFormMan April 5, 2011 8:49 PM BST
and thefarmer,the ground will be on the fast side of good,that is certain
Report thefarmer April 5, 2011 9:01 PM BST
If that is the case Form Man then i have no doubt that we will see Binocular at his best. The trip is still a concern imo and if Peddlers Cross kicks on at the top of the straight he will be very hard to pass. Binocular doesn`t strike he as a battler and if they go head to head i can only see one winner.
Report CVByrne April 5, 2011 9:11 PM BST
CV you seem to have a lack of understanding as to
Laugh Sorry but I had to laugh at that.

Anyway good luck with your Binocular bet. As I said backing short priced horses at Aintree is not for me. I've done well over the years opposing them, regardless of if they are the best horse in the race or not.
Report TheFormMan April 5, 2011 9:19 PM BST
Truth hurt does itDevil[;)]
Have not placed the bet yet,will wait and see the final decs and prices come friday,but thank you,will also be betting on yor alternative as OW looks a bet to nothing each way at 7/1
Report CVByrne April 5, 2011 9:39 PM BST
Nah, it's just I remember explaining the basics of odds and probability to you about 6 or 7 weeks ago and now you are trying to teach me, you've only had an account 4 months. Was funny.

Worried there will only bee 6/7 runners and so very little value even on OW. Might just avoid the race. I'm avoiding almost all the Grade 1's at this stage. Shocked
Report buddeliea April 6, 2011 7:59 AM BST
Formman,
Over the years Aintree has always proven difficult with horses trained for Cheltenham running against horses that have not run at Chelt.It has been proved many times that its by no means a given that the best horse(chelt runner normally) will win the races.
Its dangerous for punters to think that a horse that wins well at Chelt will do the same at Aintree,very dangerous.
Small skakes advisable imo.
Cheltenham is the place for confidence,Aintree,be wary.
Report CVByrne April 6, 2011 8:26 AM BST
Bud articulated it perfectly. Let lessons learned in the past rule over your opinions here and now.
Report Rondetto April 6, 2011 9:44 AM BST
Been some rain and no doubt PC will be out to make this a real test and see if he get to the bottom of Binocular's stamina. Only thing is Binocular travels so well that is unlikely so the only other option is to outspeed him and therein lies the problem.

PC simply isn't fast enough.

Fill your boots lads! Binocular wins!!!!!!
Report rcg123 April 6, 2011 10:14 AM BST
Looking at the weather forecast there is no way there will be any soft in the ground come saturday.  Ground will be g/s good in places at worst.  No horse will be able to have any excuses regarding the ground.
Report buddeliea April 6, 2011 12:14 PM BST
Has pc not proved he has plenty of speed??
Report Rondetto April 6, 2011 1:24 PM BST
He has more speed than Oscar Whisky that's for sure but he doesn't have instant acceleration like Hurricane or Binocular.

What really swings me is the news from Sevenbarrows that he is working better now than he was prior to the Champion Hurdle, so missing the race could be a blessing in disguise.

PC on the other hand had a bit of a slog at Kelso then ran his heart out at Cheltenham. He really is up against it IMO.
Report woodworm April 6, 2011 1:49 PM BST
Peddlers Cross 6/4
Binocular 9/4


Wrong way round imo, Bino wins this!
Report evra April 6, 2011 4:46 PM BST
both are no value what so ever
Report Masterminded April 6, 2011 5:03 PM BST
yep the 2 likely winners awful prices imo
Report buddeliea April 6, 2011 5:11 PM BST
IF pc can finish that close to HF over 2m,i think that proves he has sufficient speed for a 2m4f race,particularly as he stays further,and his main rivals ability to stay is unproven.
Bookies have it priced right imo
Report TheFormMan April 6, 2011 10:20 PM BST
2:00 Aintree Big Bucks/Grand Crus the only 2 possible winners
2:30 Aintree Zarkandar wins in a canter Grandouet only rival
3:05 Aintree Denman i would not trust running again so quick but may still win,Nacarat only riva
4:50 Aintree Medermit wins doing handstands

budd above is the 4 graded races for the first day of the festival and all will be won by Cheltenham horses with the possible exception of Nacarat winning the bowl if Denman fails to shine which is very possible from what we know about the horse,in recent years Aintree has been the secondary target for the very best horses compare to previous years when they would skip this after cheltenham and because of this in recent years Cheltenham horses have a very strong record at this meeting in the graded races and if the quality of horses like the ones listed above continue to show up at this festival then that record will only continue,if you are expecting or thinking that the above horses will show up tomorrow not fresh and well and ready to run up to there best then you would be wrong
Report buddeliea April 7, 2011 7:45 AM BST
They may win,i aint saying they wont.
But saying things like they WILL win,and wins doing handstands are foolish imo when it comes to racing,and in particular Aintree for reasons already stated.
Every year they all look like winning and every year some do and some dont.
If a horse is trained specifically for Cheltenham,i would not be wrong to have the opinion that they may not be as good a few weeks later.
Report mutley77 April 8, 2011 8:06 AM BST
Can't see it somehow.
Report Graeme83 April 8, 2011 5:18 PM BST
I've backed Binocular at 9/4. I've no problems taking a short price if i think it's worth it. The question is whether or not he gets the trip, and if he does would he still be good enough. He's such a good traveler that i'm thinking and hoping he would. I'm quietly confident that he will shut a few people up tomorrow.
Report evra April 8, 2011 6:29 PM BST
couldnt touch binocular at that price.9/4 for a horse who's never tried that trip?are u mad?and up against a quality horse in the shape on PC,not for me thanks.
Report TheFormMan April 8, 2011 6:47 PM BST
i have also had a semi serious bet on Bino here and it is simply a bet on weather he stays the trip or not as i have no doubt that if he does then he has a couple of lengths to spare against this field,everything about this course and ground is made for him and i would be more confident than not about him staying
Report buddeliea April 8, 2011 6:54 PM BST
May not stay and may not be better than PC if he does.
Price too short.
If we knew he stayed price would be about right on his best form,and thats another thing,what form will he be in??
Definitely too short imo
Report Rondetto April 8, 2011 6:57 PM BST
I wouldn't be worrying about the trip for one second TFM, not after the way he skipped away from the 3rd last in the CH and flew up the hill.

Nicky Henderson quote "I don't think he'll stay I know he will"

No sense in making excuses before the race as there will be no need after the race.

As I keep saying Binocular will win
Report buddeliea April 8, 2011 7:01 PM BST
Decided now just to watch the race,too many unknowns with the 2 shorties at their respective prices,best to leave the race alone i think.
Either that or look at OW or TS to place.
Report evra April 8, 2011 7:09 PM BST
rondetto u said the same about denman Cry
Report Rondetto April 8, 2011 7:47 PM BST
That's true but aren't you  the one who said Binocular was ducking Hurricane Fly by going all the way to Ireland for a less valuable prize?


Go sit in the chair in the corner and if you don't behave I'll have someone plug it in Laugh
Report buddeliea April 8, 2011 7:55 PM BST
Laugh
Report TheFormMan April 8, 2011 8:01 PM BST
to be fair budd his runs at this time of the year have been nothing short of outstanding,he has never run a bad race in the months of march and april,this is his time of year and i have no doubt that he will run upto his very best form,he only throws in a bad race or 2 when not fit at the start of a season or in silly little small field races with muddling pace
Report evra April 8, 2011 8:09 PM BST
a less valueable prize by about a fiver ffs,hes ducling huricane fly because they know they have no chance beating him,so it would be a wasted journey
Report evra April 8, 2011 8:10 PM BST
*ducking
Report TheFormMan April 8, 2011 8:16 PM BST
the stable talk suggests that he may very well take in the punchestown race also evra
Report Rondetto April 8, 2011 8:40 PM BST
TBH I couldn't see him going and agree with evra he couldn't win but I suppose the 2nd prize alone would make it worth while.

Anyway I just went in again on Binocular 9/4 in a double with Montbazon 11/4 and backed them both singly.

PP must be off his rocker or he's never seen Montbazon run I was expecting about 6/4 at best.
Report evra April 8, 2011 9:02 PM BST
agree re montbazon rondetto,looks a good thing [;)] famous last words Laugh
Report TheFormMan April 8, 2011 9:04 PM BST
not as stupid as skybets 12/1 on steps to freedom,i will have some of that thank you very much
Report Brodie April 9, 2011 1:01 AM BST
henderson 0-18 in this race tomoz
gl
Report buddeliea April 9, 2011 6:47 AM BST
Very true Formman he does run well this time of year and he probably will today,but he is a horse that dont always show his best,and we dont know he stays,and at the price i would want more definites about him.

And Evra,to say he could not beat HF is open to question till they meeet.I think you are probably right in that HF would win,but Bino deserves the chance to claim that he is THE CHurdler.How i would love to see them at Punchestown,and maybe we still have a chance of that happening.Month between today and Punch.
Report Brodie April 9, 2011 1:24 PM BST
Brodie Joined: 20 Oct 08

henderson 0-18 in this race tomoz
gl


sorry that should read 0-14
Report sj April 9, 2011 3:00 PM BST
Until Bino proved he could stay it was a poor price
Report CVByrne April 9, 2011 11:05 PM BST
Solwhit would have won today, pity he was injured.

I remember the comments after the Iirish Champion Hurdle at Punchestown last year about Thousand Stars "bringing the form of the race down". They even said it again after this years Champion.

Can I ask what a horse needs to do to be considered good? placed in Grade 1 races clearly "brings the form down", rather than enhances his own reputation.

Anyway Binocular was simply flattered by his Champion hurdle win, he isn't a superstar, and he needs to rebuild his reputation, he gets beat time and again while proper Champions like Hurricane Fly are winning machines.

Hurricane Fly is the best 2m hurdler in the land. There isn't a shed of doubt remaining in my mind.
Report evra April 10, 2011 12:16 AM BST
is binocular gonna come to punchestown now?
Report mightymoyes April 10, 2011 4:31 AM BST
cant see binocular winning another proper grade 1 again.
Report buddeliea April 10, 2011 9:05 AM BST
CV,
Think its a fair point that Solwhit would have won today,he normally beats Thousand Stars,its his distance plus he would have missed Cheltenham.
Mind you Oscar Whiskey was impressive today,jumped superbly.Wonder where he will be running next season??
Bino needs to be judged on his 2m runs,and i still want to see him at his best taking on HF,till then i dont know which is best.
Problem is when is Bino going to be at his best???
Report CVByrne April 10, 2011 9:37 AM BST
Yeah bud, they were targeting this race initially when they were planning on skipping Cheltenham with Solwhit until his setback. He must be interesting if they decide to go chasing with him as Arkle horses need to stay further.

But it seems when binocular is beaten he's "not at his best" I'm sorry but I'm done with it. He seems to be the only horse who is forgiven everything until he wins and then goes into bad form afterwards again. He has to this day never beaten a good horse, Khyber Kim, Zaynar, Celestial Halo were the pick of last year and Overtun the only one this year. I'm taking a stance against him now, he needs to win a top class race to win me over again and I was a supporter of this horse and have been for two seasons.

Oscar Whiskey though is a very admirable horse and I'm glad he won a Grade 1. Do they give the middle distances a crack next season before stepping up to face the invincible machine, Big Bucks? I'd certainly do that given how competitive the novice chasing ranks look.
Report CVByrne April 10, 2011 9:40 AM BST
But it's no surprise the horses who went into training in late December in Oscar Whiskey and Thousand Stars seemed to be feeling the exertions of Cheltenham less. I said this earlier when I was saying why I'd be supporting Thousand Stars and Oscar against Peddlers and Binocular.
Report CVByrne April 10, 2011 9:40 AM BST
But it's no surprise the horses who went into training in late December in Oscar Whiskey and Thousand Stars seemed to be feeling the exertions of Cheltenham less. I said this earlier when I was saying why I'd be supporting Thousand Stars and Oscar against Peddlers and Binocular.
Report buddeliea April 10, 2011 9:56 AM BST
I said on a couple of threads that TS and OW to place were the bets to look at.Had a small bet on OW to win in the end.Forecast? course i did'nt!!

As for Bino,you have a point.Really dont know what to make of him at all.Going to try and have a conversation with his trainer at the Lambourn Open day.Gonna ask him about OW  as well if i can.
We need to see Bino against HF in the CHurdle next season,think thats the only way this will end for some.
My feeling is that HF won a far better CHurdle and is a better horse who is ultra consistent,as a champion should be.Best since Istabraq,no doubt in my mind.
Report CVByrne April 10, 2011 10:05 AM BST
The form of Flys Champion is strong, the 4 chasing him home have good form this season, all but the Christmas Hurdle winner took part in the race. 

Fly will improve too, that's his first full season without any interruptions and Mullins has nailed how to train him. Hurricane Fly will be next to unbackable though if he wins his races in Ireland next season, the bookies will have him 6/4 at least on the day. It's hard to back horses at those prices. Suppose a treble with big Bucks and Quevega might be the way Blush

I had an e/w on Thousand Stars and a little saver on Oscar myself. The forecast, hah I wish.
Report zilzal1 April 10, 2011 10:31 AM BST
Some of us had the f/cLaugh

Politics forum before the race btw.....

Binocular isnt imo, the easiest horse to keep right, and i had a feeling that the final furlong in the mud combined with the Champion could leave its mark, the Aintree Hurdle isnt the place to be taking 2 milers
Report buddeliea April 10, 2011 10:41 AM BST
Smart &rse!!
Laugh
Report zilzal1 April 10, 2011 10:50 AM BST
It was the only race i did get right at the whole phucking meeting if you look at the threadLaugh

it would have been carnage otherwise, i was 0-7 going into it
Report Graeme83 April 10, 2011 10:51 AM BST
The RP were offering money back on one of their phone apps if Binocular won. Remind me who Henderson writes a column for ?
Report zilzal1 April 10, 2011 10:55 AM BST
Didn't they do that with Albertas Run as well???
Report TheFormMan April 10, 2011 11:21 AM BST
and denman
Report Rondetto April 10, 2011 11:33 AM BST
I'm still rattled at how badly Binocular ran he seemed to be totally un-relaxed and was racing with the choke half out all the way just to keep in touch. I'm not going to even think about blaming the trip he just wasn't firing at all.

Usually if a horse runs so badly as Binocular did before the Champion Hurdle you pay attention but Nicky Henderson more often than not send his horses out a few gallops short as not to have them too fit too soon. On reflection the run yesterday was so similar you have to be thinking there is something seriously wrong. It could just be he's had enough of racing as he was thrown into the Supreme against older horses and against Nicky Hederson's wishes. He's ran in a very tough Champion Hurdle when he was a 5year old like Katchit did and he paid the price. Last season something was amiss but somehow Nicky got him back and won then this year he runs a stinker then misses out the CH because he's got some alergy or another.

As Brilliant as he was on his day the signs are there he's simply not the same horse as he was. My bet is, as I said on another thread, Nicky will bring him back early and train him for the likes of the Fighting Fifth and Xmas hurdle but unlike this season won't send him out less than spot on. When they get to this stage it's very much a case of win what you can when you can but his Champion Hurdle days look well and truly over.
Report Graeme83 April 10, 2011 11:43 AM BST
"Didn't they do that with Albertas Run as well???"




Probably. Many of these fancied favs or short prices that are got at and layed at special prices usually run badly. I wouldn't be suprised if connections are giving bookies/RP the heads up. It was the same with Poquelin at 4/1.
Report evra April 10, 2011 11:59 AM BST
rondetto u need to give up the game,thinking denman and binocular were good things,you couldnt hear of defeat for either,then when they get stuffed u try coming up with shocking excuses,denman doesnt like aintree simple as that,but whats binoculars excuse?hasnt had a hard season at all and was fresh going into yesterdays race,just not good enough,simple as that,and he wouldnt stay 2 and a half miles in a taxi ffs,give it up and just face it he wasnt good enough
Report CVByrne April 11, 2011 12:03 AM BST
Binocular is hugely over rated. We cast Punjabi off easily when his subsequent season was poor but we cling to the belief Binocular is still class. No, he is not top class. He would have been beaten by a proper horse had he ran in the Champion Hurdle.

Binocular only won a champion hurdle because Hurricane Fly (among others, Go Native, Solwhit) got injured. He was lucky.
Report Rondetto April 11, 2011 6:15 AM BST
Evra do you think if everyone thought like you they would ever back horses like Long Run in the King George? A horse who couldn't jump a horse who got stuffed off a gift of a rating in the Paddy Power?

Then there was Master Minded another classic example of a horse running miles below his best then making people who accepted it at face value look like fools.

You'll get on a lot better if you don't just accept what you see but try and work out why things happened as they did.
Just reading your post I can tell you have no idea how to spot the difference between a horse who doesn't puck up because something is a misss and one that doesn't stay. You're "he wouldn't get the trip in a taxi" is about as orginal as milk in a bottle mate and your views are not shared by either Nicky Henderson nor by Tony McCoyn either of who put up not staying as an excuse.

But then who are they compared to a genius like you?Silly
Report aka April 11, 2011 2:46 PM BST
Some good points there, Rondetto.

Binocular is increasingly a hard one to work out, I feel. He may have been over-rated to some extent, as CV suggests, but even that line of thought needs to be unpacked a lot more, I think, to start to get an insight into the horse.

There may be many reasons to explain the occasions when Binocular has appeared to run below his best, including possibly matters relating to attitude and health. In terms of race conditions, his most impressive performances seem to have been when the pace from the front has been strong enough from an early enough stage to break up the pack in a way that allows Binocular to outrun the field rather than have to out battle or out sprint the others in the finish. By contrast, he has often looked pretty ordinary in situations where the pack remains fairly well bunched off no more than a moderate pace when the race for home starts in earnest. In such situations, it has often been the case he has not picked up particularly well (or as well as many were expecting).

I am not sure how much can be made of the contrast in race conditions I am making there. I think it may be significant though that Binocular has achieved some very good speed ratings in those races where he clearly has sparkled, including the CH win. Most races aren't run fast enough to generate those kind of speed ratings. In terms of graded races, that means you often need to be able to out sprint or out battle the opposition in the closing stages i.e because there hasn't been enough pace on for long enough stretches to be able to simply outrun the field. As I said, I am not sure that out sprinting or out battling other horses in a crowded rush to the line is necessarily Binocular's forte.

Binocular's CH win was, arguably, achieved against a field that lacked strength in depth (particularly with the injury sustained by Go Native). It wasn't a weak performance on the clock though. Mordin's speed rating approach has Binocular's win rated slightly higher than HF's win. And in terms of topspeed, Binocular's win achieved a rating of 163 against HF's 149.

I suspect that had he needed to, HF could have achieved an ever better performance on the clock (in terms of speed ratings)in the CH. In fact, what seems remarkable to me about HF is that while he clearly has a brilliant turn of foot to put more moderately run races to bed, he gives every impression of travelling well enough and having the stamina and battling qualities to win out in races that are much more testing in terms of maintaining high speed over sustained distances.

HF is starting to look like the complete package; Binocular is increasingly looking like a very talented horse, but one that has some significant flaws or reasons for not being able to back with confidence. Nevertheless, it would be very interesting to see the two run against each other if the conditions were such that Binocular was able to cover the ground as quickly as he did in the 2010 CH and the pace strong enough over a sufficiently sustained distance to avoid anything approaching a sprint finish. I probably wouldn't want to back against HF in that situation, but all the same it would make for a very interesting race, I think.
Report CVByrne April 11, 2011 5:38 PM BST
Then there was Master Minded another classic example of a horse running miles below his best then making people who accepted it at face value look like fools.

Master Minded ran to his best in the past 2 Champion Chases, he simply isn't a 2 mile chaser he isn't fast enough. It's no surprise he was impressive when stepped up to 2m4f like I said he would. But he did run as well as he can in his 2m chases.
Report CVByrne April 11, 2011 5:46 PM BST
I agree aka, take sizing Europe for example, he needs an end to end relentless gallop over 2m on good ground to be seen at his best. He got exactly that Cheltenham. Celestial Halo gave Binocular that in his Champion hurdle last year.

But the problem for Binocular is that Fly is better with a fast gallop as he settles, he doesn't settle when the pace is moderate because he's not going fast enough hence he's very keen and Ruby is hard at work trying to keep him in midfield.

So should the pace next year be a fast one like I hope it is, we'll see Fly at his absolute best and hopefully he'll get the rating to match.

Fly does have it all, awesome speed, slick hurdling, travels like a dream, plenty of stamina, buckets of courage, versatility and consistency.

Finest since Istabraq.
Report wellchief April 11, 2011 6:10 PM BST
Certainly wouldn't be backing Binocular at 10/1 for next years Champion Hurdle.

He is only one year older than Oscars Well but has about 5 times as many miles on the clock, and could be vulnerable to other younger horses such as Zarkandar and Spirit Son.

Compared to Hurricane Fly - they are the same age and have both had 22 races.  Hurricane Gly has raced a total of 290 furlongs and Binocular 319.  There isn't that much difference but you Hurricane Fly has had much less physically demanding races and has now been trained lighter.  You get the sense that there is more to come from the Fly than Binocular.

I don't think he's finished though.  I agree that he needs everything to fall in to place, and the Fly is an absolute monster, but I think on his day he can still compete with the best of them over 2m.

The only problem is the lack of alternatives for him.  If his performances don't improve from the run at Aintree there is a real lack of options.  He won't go chasing and he'd never be able to run up to World Hurdle distances.  I hope he can recapture his form because 2m hurdling is by far my favourite division and want to see the best run at their best.
Report TheFormMan April 11, 2011 6:30 PM BST
I know it will never happen,but if i owned Bino then he would be straight off to the nicholls stable or another trainer who will train it properly instead of fuc king about with his fitness and getting him ready for 1 race a year and even fuc king that up,ever since his 3rd in the CH in 09 he has been trained like a complete joke and such a horse deserves better
Report CVByrne April 11, 2011 7:18 PM BST
^ stupidest post I've ever read.
Report wellchief April 11, 2011 8:07 PM BST
Rondetto "It could just be he's had enough of racing as he was thrown into the Supreme against older horses and against Nicky Hederson's wishes." - that's a good point.

Just looking again at the Fly vs Bino since they turned 4 and began hurdling:

Age 4: Fly 88f, Bino 99f
Age 5: Fly 32f, Bino 49f
Age 6: Fly 52f, Bino 51f
Age 7: Fly 33f, Bino 53f

So earlier in their careers Bino was worked a lot harder; as he had more racing and they were all tough races.  Battle up the hill in the Supreme, followed by a trip to Aintree less than 3 weeks later as a four year old.

As a fuve year old he had a tough campaign.  Then the Champion Hurdle battle probably didn't do him any favours, then the defeat to Go Native twice.  As a five year old he had three races and lost all of them; compare that to the Fly where he only had 2 runs and one was a novice hurlde.
Report TheFormMan April 11, 2011 8:20 PM BST
'stupidest post you have ever read'??????? think your forgeting this one cv

By: This user is online. CVByrne
Date Joined: 14 Mar 06 Add contact | Send message
When: 22 Feb 11 22:04 Joined: Date Joined: 14 Mar 06 | Topic/replies: 2,653 | Blogger: CVByrne's blog
To the complete opposite of TheFormMan, it is highly likely that Hurricane Fly won't win the Champion Hurdle. He's a price of 4/1 in many places pricing him up at a 20% chance of winning. I'd price him up at a 3/1 maybe a little bit shorter giving him around a 25 - 27% chance.

But my reservations are to do with the opposition and the one or more may simply be better than Hurricane Fly. There is little form between most of the principles so no one can rule out most with any confidence.

often throw your money down backing horses antepost that you believe are highly likely not to win do youConfused[smiley:crazy]Confused[smiley:crazy]Confused[smiley:crazy]LaughLaughLaugh what a tit head
Report CVByrne April 11, 2011 8:54 PM BST
Nicky Henderson has trained 5 champion hurdle winners. Five. Two of them coming in the past 3 seasons. Nicholls has trained zero champion hurdle winners.

Also your below post further proves you have have no grasp of probability or value.

I think that was rather good pricing fly up at about a 3/1 shot with Binocular still engaged and Menorahs potential and form still unknown at the time.

With Binocular out of the race and Cue Card stuffed in the supreme he became at 6/4 shot in my view and I backed him again at the track accordingly. I must say I absolutely nailed the champion hurdle this season.

Thanks for digging up my post
Report buddeliea April 11, 2011 8:56 PM BST
Laugh
Report buddeliea April 11, 2011 8:56 PM BST
Laugh
Report buddeliea April 11, 2011 8:56 PM BST
oops!
Report CVByrne April 11, 2011 9:00 PM BST
Well Chief Fly raced 5 times inside 7 months as a 4yo. Two of those tough 2m4f races in France. I think it's straw clutching believing that the amount of racing Fly and Binocular have had is the reason the former is potentially deteriorating.

Fact remains he has won 2 of his last 7 grade 1 races, beating Overturn, Khyber Kim and Zaynar in them, he simply hasn't beaten any horse to make me believe he's a top class hurdler. His Champion hurdle fell to pieces.
Report CVByrne April 11, 2011 9:02 PM BST
bud Grin Could I have nailed the race better? Laugh I think Peddlers Cross was my only mistake really.
Report wellchief April 11, 2011 9:16 PM BST
You have to concede though that Binocular was thrown into the deep end at a much earlier age than Hurricane Fly.

I've always beleived that the Fly at his peak would beat Bino at his peak; but I think that the Supreme and then being pitched in at the deep end as a five year old may have left its mark on him.  He has been to Cheltenham 3 times now (should have been 4) and he's only 7,  where Festival races are a lot tougher physically than a normal grade 1.
Report buddeliea April 12, 2011 8:00 AM BST
Yep,you did well mate.
I did ok with the prices i had for OW and PC,but i just werent convinced enough about the Fly,and if it werent for him i would have had a nice 1st and 2nd!!
Oh well,thats racing.

Oscars well my first bet for next season,20 on here-too big.
HF will be the only horse from this year to figure,so need to look at the novices for the challangers.
Report Brooksielad April 12, 2011 9:39 AM BST
My two for next years champion are The Fly and Oscars Well aswell. Oscars tanked at cheltenham most impressive loser at the festival
Report Rondetto April 12, 2011 9:50 AM BST
Doesn't seem to have the same sparkle to it with Peddler's and Binocular unlikely to be mounting a challenge. Menorah is better than that and will be back but very much depend's on horses like Spirit Son,Oscar's Well and Zarkander making the grade. Unfortunately there is no guarantee as the massive gap between novice and Champion Hurdle is thee biggest in the jump racing game.
Report CVByrne April 12, 2011 8:23 PM BST
Binocular will be entered at Punchestown. This will be the last race you'll ever get to back Hurricane Fly at odds against.

I shall bring one of my H-Fly dumper trucks still over flowing with H-Fly winnings to Punchestown and have a few able lads with wheelbarrows wheel the cash in to pile upon him once again. I shall take position at the winning post like last year and watch the procession.

Then the journey is complete. I shall contact my bank manager and enjoy the rest of the evening. Cool
Report buddeliea April 12, 2011 8:34 PM BST
nothing like confidenceLaugh
Report CVByrne April 12, 2011 8:34 PM BST
I missed the prices on Spirit Son, I was going to take the 29's on here but didn't thinking he'd lost at Aintree. I have Oscars Well and Zarkander backed, only threats I can see to Fly next season.
Report CVByrne April 12, 2011 8:38 PM BST
Confidence that was most certainly well placed Cool I still smile when I think back to Leopardstown at Christmas 2008 when he simply wowed me. Had I not been there that day how things may have been different.
Report buddeliea April 21, 2011 12:18 PM BST
It appears that the thread starter has got it wrong.
Report NANI17 April 24, 2011 3:13 PM BST
it would appear he got it rite budd if u had a brain cell u might realise that given how binocular ran at aintree LaughLaugh
Report sintonian April 24, 2011 8:32 PM BST
Nani you thcik ****. The thread starter said,clearly, connections were going to Aintree to avoid HF in Ireland.

How Bino ran at Aintree is of no relevance, and how he runs in Ireland is of no relevance. The thread starter made an assumption about what route they were taking and why and he has been proven completley wrong.
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl May 4, 2011 8:20 AM BST
Binocular will probably be staying in Limerick 4da summer so it makes sense to run at Punchestown...will make HF a backable price...only danger is slippery Hederson who may have used Aintree as a prep as horse would have needed a run after his MEDICATION..still think Binocular has loadz of questions to answer...has to be HF..[;)]
Report Mayweather May 5, 2011 3:27 PM BST
Hurricane Fly is different class when he's right that's why Binocular/Henderson has been scared to race him.

It's not shame, I think most trainers are scared to race him. Put it this way, Essexguy is scared even to look at him alone race or bet against him.
Report buddeliea May 10, 2011 12:12 PM BST
Cheers Sint,saved me from replying to the silly person!!
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