1MillionChallengeMan

Start Bank £1,000
Current Bank £1,585.11 (+58%)

Hello there,
a couple of weeks ago my bank was approaching the first doubling point. And then it all went Pete Tong. There have been times lately when I couldn't even win an argument! The trouble is 'misinformation'. Ya see we all rely on the form book and the 'experts' but if they were right all the time we'd all be millionares right? I mean every day I consult www.oddschecker.com and check out where the money is going and the TIMEFORM and Sporting Life views of the race - so I do my 'Homework' before putting my bets on, but lately it's been a case of one step forward and two steps back.

So you have to take a position where you have a greater 'probability' of success than failure and the answer for me seems to be to do PLACE bets and TRADES and I am now hopeful of regaining my upward curve using these methods, so we'll see what happens.

Today I have Place bets on VERDE GOODWOOD in the 2.15 at Newton Abbot and MANDHOOMA in the 3.00 at Brighton. I have also put on a 5% Trade on MANDHOOMA - backing the selection at 4.6 and I am hoping to close out the trade at 4.1 for a 2.5% gain.

Have to dash the race is coming on! Bye for now.

Hello again,

We have a fantastic race to look forward to this afternoon in the Eclipse at SANDOWN 3.10 with the prospect of SO YOU THINK and WORKFORCE battling it out for the honours. I got evens on SO YOU THINK with Bet365 and 15/8 (2.88) on WORKFORCE. I backed them both with 5% stakes and I am hoping that WORKFORCE wins for the profit. If SO YOU THINK wins I break even, so at least I can enjoy the race without sweating - unless something else causes a major upset that is!

I am getting a good handle on this Trading approach. It's clearly the way to go and I'm hoping to become one of the 0.01% of us who are mega successful (c.500 out of 3.8 Million!). I've made six Trades today; SANDOWN 4.15 NAHRAIN, & 4.50 JOHNNY CASTLE, HAYDOCK 2.50 VITA NOVA & 3.55 NORVILLE and BEVERLEY 3.35 POLISH WORLD & 5.40 DICTIONARY. They've all been selected because they are either front-running types or have been backed by strong 'Expert' opinions and their odds should shorten in running so that I can close out for a profit and an all-green screen.

Have to dash - much to do today but I wanted to share those selections with you so's you know what I'm doing today. Have a good weekend.
T.T.F.N.

Hello again,

I gave out ten bets for my club today. All the afternoon bets are over and we are at the moment +£55.44 up. My wins were TAZEEZ, CHAIN LIGHTENING, PANOPTIC and BARKSTON ASH and my only disappointment has been DUBAI DYNAMO (5th) in the 3.35 at Doncaster. PANOPTIC was to win all the others were to Place.

This evening I have Layed HOGMANEIGH in the 6.30 at BEVERLEY and backed QUITE A THING to Win in the 7.00 there and WOOD FAIRY for a PLACE in the 9.00.

My Trade bet is HAYDOCK 8.45 Number 1 ROYAL HUSH which I have backed at 5% at 2.74 and hope to Lay off the same 5% at 2.0 in running and then either go for the green screen or let it ride for a possible win. According to the experts my horse is a front running type - and that's all I really need as the odds are sure to shorten for the Trade.

Hey Guys - Back bets, Lay bets, Place bets, Trade bets! This is surely Punters Heaven - maybe I'm dead and don't know it!

Catch you later guys.

Hi Fellow Bettors,

Jeez but its hard to win aint it? Did you see yesterday's RacingPost article about Betfair increasing their Premium Charge on the Big Guys to 60% Premium? Wow! The interesting part of the article was that these guys lifetime net profits exceed £250,000 and that of Betfairs 3.8 million users the Premium hike is only going to affect around 500 people and this represents 0.01% of Betfair customers. Or to put it another way - only 0.01% of us are actually successful and if you do get really successful Betfair want 60% of your profits! If I was a Big Dog I would be looking for a new Kennel right now, and these days there are several alternatives.

Politics is always an emotive subject but surely lessons should be learned from history? I mean way back in the 70's  Labour had a chancellor called Dennis Healey. He promised to 'tax the rich until the pips squeak'. You know what happened? - the rich didn't hang around to squeak! They buggered off to friendlier territory where their investments and knowledge were welcome and thus began 'The Brain Drain' as the best talent fled the country! I don't think those 500 'Big guys' are so dumb as to hang around and suffer such an imposition - what would you do?

Let me tell yer, I'm outa here the minute I get hit like that! But first I gotta make it to those dizzy heights.

My attempts to 'get there' today include the following PLACE bets: Haydock 5.30 Number 8 HOT SPICE, Newbury 7.05 Number 3 BALLYEA and Newbury 9.10 Number 3 ANTON DOLIN and Yarmouth 4.10 Number 7 IMAGINARY DIVA. My Place stakes were 5% of the bank on each of them and I got 1.58, 1.62, 1.67 and 2.3 respectively.

Hopefully all the 'experts' are right about them and I'll make a good profit today v 20% potential loss! Catch you later guys. T.T.F.N. 

Hi Guys and Gals,

BIG day for me today as I have ordered my FAIRBOT TRADING SOFTWARE and I can't wait to get stuck in. I'll be dividing my bank by 20 as a 20 point bank is all I will need and each Trade will be at 5% and if I get really cocky I'll up that to 10% per Trade.

Today I have just had 'normal' back bets though, not Trades. I backed YORK GLORY to win in the 4.45 at PONTEFRACT and have also had five PLACE bets on BLANCHE DUBAWI 3.45 PONTEFRACT, UNKNOWN REBEL 5.15 PONTEFRACT, JIGAJIG in the 3.30 at WOLVERHAMPTON, REPEATER in the 4.00 and at MUSSELBURGH I have FIRST FAST NOW in the 7.55. If I lose today it'll be the last time I do as the Trading will be my salvation!

Now where's that software instruction manual?

Catch you later folks.
T.T.F.N.

Start Bank £1,000
Current Bank £1,680.33 (+68%)

Hello again,

I have just returned from a short break - had to get some Sun into my life, don't like rain and gloom - well it is Wimbledon - what else can we expect?

I made good use of my time while I was away and have finished reading two books which have been a real revelation to me. They were 'Fortunes Formula' by William Poundstone (2005) and 'Beat The RaceTrack' by William T Ziemba and Donald B Hausch (1984). Brothers and sisters I have to tell you that the pennies have dropped from my eyes - Hallelujah! There was also a third piece of information which I do believe has given me a virtual 'Licence to Print Money' and I do believe I'm gonna get my new boat a lot quicker as a result! If anyone would like to know what the third piece of the jigsaw I discovered is, just contact me and I'll send you a Private message with the info.

Today my primary interest is in two horses; Newmarket 5.05 Number 9 WATNEYA and Chester 3.45 Number 3 CHILLED. I have had some success with Laying horses to lose but I much prefer to back them when the prospects for success are good. The prospects for success are largely determined by the weight of money, especially the 'smart' money in the last ten minutes before the off. My primary strategy is now to bet the horses to PLACE 1st, 2nd, or 3rd. However CHILLED is trading at significantly shorter than was forecast in the RacingPost so I have a WIN bet interest in that one aswell - with a twist! I have Layed it at a shorter price in running which should lock in a Guaranteed profit for me if it runs well.

Have to dash, much to do.
T.T.F.N.

Start Bank £1,000
Current Bank £1,685.55 (+68%)

Hello again,

well this Laying lark is all going rather well! I have now had 25 successful lay bets out of 29 in the last three days and I can see that this is going to catapult my progress towards that new Boat I want and the £MILLION. My 5% Win target for this week is £84.27, which would see me finish the week at £1,769.82. However I do believe that I will now be able to exceed the weekly targets comfortably, at least I hope so!

Today though there are a lot of Non Runners due to the rain and the changing ground conditions, so I have stuck mainly to Back bets today, although I have layed FAST ON in the 1.45 at CARLISLE for a maximum Liability of 2% but only if it comes down to 4.0 . I should Lay at around 5% Liability, but the Owner is known to ready one for a win at good odds occasionally so it's just 2% Liability on this one today.

I have backed MAWSEM in the 3.00 at SEDGEFIELD and NIGHT ANGEL in the 6.40 at WARWICK to WIN and also backed a couple for a PLACE bet 1,2,3, and they are RED ART in the 6.00 at WINDSOR and JADE in the 3.15 at CARLISLE. My stakes were 1.5% (£25) on each of the Back bets.

I recently bought a new Barbecue - it sat in its box while the Sun was shining in all that nice sunny weather we had and then on the day I decided to assemble the darn thing the heavens opened - and they haven't stopped opening since. Maybe I should dissassemble my barbecue and put it back in its box! The postman has just delivered my copy of FORTUNES FORMULA - the untold story of of the scientific betting system that beat the Casinos and Wall Street by William Poundstone. This book contains the secrets of The Kelly Criterion - the formula for maximising profitability - so I am hoping to pick up some good knowledge to speed my progress along. Should be a good read!

T.T.F.N.

Start Bank £1,000
Current Bank £1,539.20

Hello again,

After MOUSIE lost at 2/5 odds-on the other day I was really cheesed off. I have been having interesting conversations with my friend Snapper who has made progress of +677% over a similar period. 677% is absolutely ASTONISHING! Even more astonishing is the fact that my friend candidly admits that he knows nothing at all about horseracing! How incredible is that? I mean here I am poring over form for hours and there goes Snapper racing at 13 X my speed!

So what's he doing? Well LAYING is my friends strategy, but LAYING to a mathematical edge. Go read Snappers Blog to find out more about how he uses 'the Kelly' criterion' to maximise his stake,I find it fascinating. Anyway, I decided to take a leaf out of Snappers approach and yesterday I had a Laying Frenzy! I Layed 14 favourites and only three of them won. I also had a successful Place bet with MARIE DU LUFON in the 8.40 at Uttoxeter. So I am fairly confident in my ability to select good potential Lays. All I have to do now is apply the similar mathematical edge and we should be home and dry! I'll still be backing horses to win though and today I have had four Back bets and Five Lay bets.

My Back bets were, to Win: GRUMETI in the 5.05 at Sandown and three to PLACE: VALENCHA 7.20 Goodwood, MILLYLUVSTOBOUGGIE 2.50 Sandown and SURE ROUTE 4.00 Sandown.A word of caution about the sandown 2.50 bet though as there are now only seven runners and you really need eight for a Place 1,2,3.

My five Lay bets are: York 4.25 ROCKET ROB, 5.30 POCKFULHAM, Sandown 3.25 ICENI GIRL, 4.35 ALL ACTION and Market Rasen 5.15 SURE THING. I'm still a bit 'chicken' about using 'Kelly' though, so at the moment my maximum Lay liability on each of them is 1.5%. I will increase the stakes as my confidence grows!

Thanks for your visit today,
T.T.F.N.

Start Bank £1,000
Current Bank £1,501.32 (+50%)

Hello again,

well just when it was all going so well I increased my standard stakes and engaged warp drive - but I didn't know that the gear stick was stuck in Reverse! Man what a ride. You know what - when your luck changes like that it's a real tough thing. My confidence took a knock or two as right now I don't think I could win an argument!

I looked at what went wrong and basically it was down to jockeys not riding out for a Place - dropping their hands near the line and getting done for third, that sort of thing, or unlucky fallers etc. Nothing to do with the system selections, just the way it goes sometimes.

So, what to do? Well get right back on the horse of course! I'll share todays selection with you and we'll see what happens: At BEVERLEY in the 2.00 Pint Size is a Non Runner. Pint Size was the main rival to Number 3 MOUSIE in what is now a 5 horse race and I have backed MOUSIE to win at short odds of 1.57.

Then I found an interesting race in the 3.50 at HAYDOCK where the first three in the betting are KEYS, WILD COCO and THUBIAAN. There is a big gap in the betting to the field of 12 runners so I have gone for THUBIAAN to get a PLACE. Although the Place odds are skinny at 1.57 Thubiaan should be good for a Place at least unless the jockey Richard Hills rides a shocker or throws in the towel.

I staked 2.5% (£37) on each of these bets today.

T.T.F.N.

Start Bank £1,000
Current Bank £1,538 (+53%)

Hello again,

well I am happy to report that I have saved my followers a fair bit this week! Because I didn't have much time to update the Blog you've missed out on my losing bets! I've gone backwards a bit after such a promising start to the week. I should've took the week off and gone fishing or something. Never mind, I'll console myself with the fact that I've only given the Bookies a temporary 'loan'.

Today I have followed the advice of Pricewise in the racing Post on a couple of horses, except that where Pricewise goes for the jugular with Win bets I have taken the more cautious option of backing them to get a PLACE. Anyway the two I backed were POUR MOI in the Derby and MASAMAH in the 3.15 at Epsom. I got Place odds of 2.4 and 2.42 respectively.

My other bets today are a Dutching bet in the 4.10 at WORCESTER backing BALLABROOK and PIN D'ESTRUVAL at 3.28 and 3.08 respectively, either one wins and I collect. Also NAYARRA to win in the 6.15 at LINGFIELD and AP has some good rides at WORCESTER today where I have backed CRYSTAL ROCK to get a PLACE in the 3.35. My stakes were 1.5% (£23) on each of them for a total risk today of 6%.

Whatever you're on in the Derby good luck to you. I am hoping for some wins from my bets today to cheer me up!
T.T.F.N.