Nap Competition Hall of Fame

For the third table I wanted to come up with a list of tipsters who had demonstrated the greatest success for the number of years’ results I could find for them. But how best to do that? Is there a method that can compare the performance of tipsters who've been around for 8 years with those who only have a couple of years under their belts? Well statistically there is. It involves the binomial probability distribution and z-scores and some other stuff that you're not interested in knowing about.

The method measures how much better (or worse) a tipster has done compared to someone blindly sticking a pin in the racing post. The final percent figure for each tipster is a measure of the likelihood that the p and l could have been achieved by chance alone. So a figure of 0.05 means that the chances of someone achieving the same result or better using a pin would only happen 5% of the time. While a figure of 0.5 means that this is the average result you could expect to get using the pin.

I assumed that not many people post on a Sunday which is usually optional. If you regularly post on a Sunday then you probably should be in a higher position if your results show a profit. And I ignored non-runners/abandonments because they don't appear in the final monthly table.

Sample size is a big factor. A large difference in a small sample doesn't mean as much as when you have a big sample. For example, if you toss a coin 100 times and 55 of those are tails then that will happen a lot more often than if you toss 1000 coins and get 550 tails. It's the same percentage, but you can expect to get 55 or more tails out of 100 16% of the time whereas 550 or more out of 1000 will only happen 0.1% of the time. So if you’ve made £50  over a year, it’s going to be less significant than say £25 a year (£200) over 8 years.

Tipster	BFSP Total	Months in comp	Prob from chance
china castle	239.7	75	0.000005
MOB	255.08	92	0.00003
hong kong fooey	432.67	93	0.0002
pumphol.	309.66	73	0.0004
Briansbluebicycle	126.72	32	0.0004
Ming_the_Merciless	165.97	48	0.0008
josh monk	305.08	93	0.001
smirnoff2therescue	83.41	31	0.002
SkyAtlantic	123.2	85	0.004
panglima	98.12	23	0.005
Dirac Comb	90.82	24	0.006
Healing Hands	142.9	92	0.006
mini me	127.67	92	0.007
The Lord BUSH	120.88	81	0.01
OUTSIDER	45.53	11	0.02
general custer	99.24	92	0.02
nineandahalfinches	56.13	18	0.02
LordyLordy	116.06	70	0.03
SkintofGreatYarmouth	129.6	61	0.03
GEORGE.B	88.06	67	0.03
PAT'S PLAYTHING	55.42	16	0.03
Sowerby Boy	70.83	32	0.04
hoof hearted	83.7	55	0.04
DubaiPrince	67.17	88	0.04
youresomean	99.3	58	0.05
REDROB	71.87	12	0.05
Tightfisted	60.89	29	0.09
DFCIRONMAN	145.94	86	0.09
Occam's Razor	34.59	23	0.11
m.o.m	42.03	12	0.11
bettysboy	50.32	23	0.11
shearer2therestcue	35.29	78	0.13
alist5.	58.86	92	0.13
little.bobby	42.94	92	0.13
bottomline	20.81	14	0.14
I am the one and only223	26.47	92	0.14
qqking.	41.85	18	0.14
Pretend Friend	17.25	14	0.15
old applejack	32.19	79	0.15
potlessagain	23.39	89	0.16
warrick hunt	53.4	79	0.16
la mallatiere	36.56	92	0.16
Pre-Fat-Low-Fat-Foods	37.07	26	0.16
look - it's snowing	39.57	92	0.17
Hilly	19.5	92	0.2
IntheGroove	40.87	18	0.22
Moose	19.28	92	0.22
WELLIN	16.79	12	0.23
lester pickit	16.27	18	0.24
SontaranStratagem	17.14	6	0.26
Stevie Gerrard	16.35	6	0.26
SilverBuck1	9.1	72	0.29
JBNAY	15.08	33	0.3
Mark Sloan	8.89	18	0.31
Nijinsky	16.6	22	0.32
N-east Correspondent	19.26	21	0.33
posy	7.43	32	0.34
madrigal	6.7	18	0.35
onehundredandeighty	12.06	30	0.38
DeSSieReborn	10.01	33	0.39
stewpot	6.59	8	0.39
SOULDANCER	4.79	23	0.42
motseel	-0.7	41	0.42
JRAS	-3.72	65	0.43
Weaver Fish	-1.05	36	0.43
pension fund	1.73	6	0.44
topweight	0.47	12	0.44
flyingbolt	-2.91	30	0.45
feastorfamine	-10.3	68	0.46
polo minx	-14.92	92	0.46
theres only one best tonic	-4.62	42	0.47
Born Unlucky	-0.03	8	0.47
lowrider	-1.64	13	0.48
caulkhead	-18.87	92	0.48
undecided	-16.27	86	0.49
raspberrybottom	-16.86	89	0.49
Reged	-14.18	69	0.49

can you explain why table 1 assigns -4 for every month under 90?

Whats BFSP got to do with the competition?

DeSSieReborn 17 Mar 18 10:58 Joined: 21 Jun 02 | Topic/replies: 25,654 | Blogger: DeSSieReborn's blog
can you explain why table 1 assigns -4 for every month under 90?

-4 is just below the average monthly score for all tipsters. Undecided uses -10 for the yearly tables, but personally I think -4 is fairer.

Of course the BFSP table does not show how high (in BF odds) the naps could have been bet at.

Most of my naps are HAMMERED in odds before the off, then it is good to see a table at least reflecting BFSP odds ...........A table showing  the odds achievable on naps before the off at BFSP would be "interesting"

Only japing IATOAO223........thanks for showing such a table at BFSP........Pity you are showing strike-rate (  13% pour moi )....but as HKF ( the master ) strike-rate is 14%.my SR is not so much embarrassing

Sorry IATOAO223......your table is fine ....just been watching too much football....and eyes caput as well as brain!

soldieroffortune17 Mar 18 19:03 Joined: 14 Apr 07| Topic/replies: 4,890 | Blogger: soldieroffortune's blog
Absolutely brilliant analysis and stats 223, superb work!

Can you re-post Table 1 above please but in Strike Rate order

soldier, we both know you're in a league of your own when it comes to Strike Rate!

Thanks 223