Manl Discussion Thread

Just looking ahead to the paddy power meeting and the Friday in particular the 2 mile handicap chase. A horse that catches my eye is kid cassidy given no sort of a chance at Aintree the last day after being held out the back. It was obvious that connections had his rating for a handicap in mind. He is cleary hard to catch right as seen at the festival but i still think he is handicapped to win and provided he runs friday i think he will run a big race in what seems a fairly week race for the open. It may be a bit premature to be talking about a race of this standard 5 days in advance but i really think kid cassidy will take all the beating and i would think he will go off around the  5/1 mark which would be plenty value.

I`m waiting for his next run too, price? havn`t a clue as yet.

yes his price is definately a guess as any number of horses could drop out even kid cassidy himself but he is definately one to keep an eye on.

Do you fancy anything in the paddy power itself shane?

Just spent 20 mins on the 2:45 Southwell tomorrow, still no clearer

I don`t usually look at any race until the night before these days.

Fair enough probably the best way to go as the market is the best guide of the lot this time of year.

You really do like to set yourself a challenge that race really is a bit of a muddler.

I know it`s a little airey fairy but i`ll hang fire with my cash until 2 mins before the off many a time. Obviously i`ll have 2 or 3 fancies, don`t just follow the market.

Arn`t they all. Not sure i agree with Timeform`s view on Petrarchick being vulnerable with a small rise in the weights

Sure it was 11`s 5 mins ago when i looked on 365. 8`s now

A race which is alot clearer and not short in quality is the 2.25 at carlisle and the one i fancy is sarando. Cappa bleu is obviously the quality horse but his price is a little on the skinny side and for that reason alone ill give him a swerve. Across the bay will love the conditions and stays all the but i would be worried that this race could be very slowly ran and i don't think it would suit acroos the bay. I dont think the other two are good enough in this company.I think sarando represents a little bit of value  at 5/1. This horse clearly has ability running well at aintree in 2011 just beaten by Quito del la roque. Qdlr has shown that he is no slouch and is currently rated 160. Sarando won this race llast year by 11 lengths. He has been readied for this by a spin on the flat recently and i think it is all systems go for a big run.

Shane i agree if there was one id go for it would be him but for me its a leave alone race.

Certainly an easier race, i must be a masochist .

Alreet lads.

Are yas readies to smash up those bookmasters aye?

Good lucks for tomorrows me ship mates, arrrrgggggghhhhhh.

Very dissapointing run by sarando but i guess the ground was just to soft. The massive drift was not a good sign either.

At this rate grand crus is going to go off odds on. 2/1 is a ridiculous price. Hunt ball the one for me at the moment but that could change.

I dont usually do ante post but if I did my money would be on Al Ferof,come in from 16s to 8s in last 24hrs,conditions are looking favourable,I am almost tempted!!

Ya lots of money for him pedro but is he really that good what has he done over fences to be 2 lbs higher than grand crus?

I cant answer that,all I am saying is that if any horse was to carry my money at the mo,it would be Al.I think 2 and half miles is more his trip now,maybe further

16`s to 8`s mmm.

Huntingdon 3:10 Countess Comet 3/1 various (nap)

Oh, wrong thread.

Ya definately. 2 miles is too short. Money speaks as we know so mabe the trip will make the diff.

Some of those Paddy Power prices are gonna have to drift out if the main protagonist stay in because the book is gonna be like 150% with some of the current prices floating about.

I noticed Vhujon was running at Kempton 4:55, surprised it`s priced at 9`s, thought it`d be at least 16`s

Harrison George 5:25 is well treated on old form, think i`ll watch the market tomorrow afternoon.

Global City would be dangerous to rule out in the last at Kempers.

Ya very little value in the paddy power at the mo.What do you fancy Ryan?

Was thimking of napping global city shane looks to hold very good claims

There is something called the Horse Racing Forum muppets     

salmon

Im so sorry salmon please dont call the betfair police.

Nov 13, 2012 -- 1:18PM, Theothersarecoming wrote:

Ya very little value in the paddy power at the mo.What do you fancy Ryan?

Hate to be boring, but everything looks ideal for Grands Crus - can't understand how Al Ferof is rated 2lb higher.

Can't see myself playing at the current prices, and I haven't even gone through the race in any great detail. Will wait to see the final decs and go from there I guess.

I have reported Salmon Spray to the appropriate authorities, he will be dealt with shortly.

I give vendor a good shout in the greatwood tbh

Does anyone know whats the news with cue card. Is he going to be upped in trip? Dosent seem to be on many markets for the betfair chase.

I thought Vendor wanted further tbh, but I got the impression that neither he or Lovcen were fully wound up at that Aintree meeting, so you could be right.

As for CC, I didn't think they had decided, but the King George was a possibility.

radio5live had a good horse race discussion on tuesday and they had the trainer of hunt ball on and he said he has backed to win 1 million if the horse wins the paddy power the king george and the betfair

Anthony knott what a man.
http://www.google.ie/imgres?q=anthony+knott&um=1&hl=en&sa=N&rlz=1C1DVCB_enIE347&biw=1280&bih=933&tbm=isch&tbnid=dV-ZeGOg7WVj4M:&imgrefurl=http

Tried to view, just got error message,

This should work.
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/anthony-knott-winning-owner-fined-after-leaping-on-horse/979140/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews

Seems a passionate man

^^He's had some crazy bet that if Hunt Ball wins the Paddy Power, King George & Gold Cup, he'll win a million pound

Great for the game that someone like that has got a really good horse on his hands though, gotta love it.

Ah ya some man. Watch the video where he celebrates prematurely while riding one of his own horses. Absolutely one of the funniest things ive ever seen in horse racing.

Here it is. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1EHL4OMlK4

Some drift on Global City last night, least it stopped me having another fiver on it.

Any of you guys going to Paddy Power on Saturday?

You going then?

yes

Careful pedro Lampus is threatening to go.
I think Poquelin is a good e/w bet. Probably has too much weight to win but you never know.
Sorry ryan the authorities are ignoring you         

They said they will launch an investigation in to any wrong doings, and will let me know within the next ten years.

Make that 30.

Think michael flips could run a big race tomorrow also like sea of thunder and lovecen.

I keep looking at Cross Kennon 3.05 Chelt.
Loves soft ground,last win was 3mile heavy class 1 at Haydock off 139,has also been placed off a higher mark in class and distance.
I think 33/1 with Coral is far too big,gonna have an e/w go at this one.
Any opinions welcomed

Ya cant put you off that one myself pedro at the price. Looks to have a squeek

I think im going to have a punt on fredo 1.55 think soft groung and extra 2 f might just help him run into a place

Well Al Ferof won quite cosily and Cross Kennon beaten by a neck,great days racing,got a sore throat now,done plenty of cheering

looking at a short price 4 timer tomorrow
Champagne Fever
Captain Conan
Wishful Thinking
Fox Run

close but no cigar

I feel Final Drive 4:30 Wolves is due to win, tempting if price is over 20`s

good luck with that shane

I know i`ll need it pedro. Looking for something to get me into top 1 or 2 in the AW div 1 comp.

Good shout with CK Pedro.

Did you have a good time?

Very dissapointed vendor was a nr but hey ho. Backed cause of causes was never really given a chance by condon but stayed on well to get 3rd. Definately one for the notebook.

Ryan I had an amazing day,took my wife and 2 of my daughters,won enough to pay for expenses and bring some home,I jest you not,that Al Ferof is a machine,could get 3miles in future no probs imo.
As for Cross Kennon,when he came round first circuit he looked like he would do it from the front,I was impressed to say the least.
Also Our Father is an awesome horse,definitely a notebooker

Glad to hear you had a good time mate.

Got my own theory that Our Father runs his best races fresh. So it will be interesting to see if they space his next run out or not, but I thought he could be a horse worth taking on NTO if short in the betting.

Who knows how far Al Ferof can go, I think the horse has got one of the finest engines going because he isn't the tallest of horses, I really think he could be a good few lbs better over hurdles than fences, but I guess all the prizes are over fences. Not to say he can't still win the KG, because that PP performance has to put him right in the mix.

Best days racing of the season yet imo. Cant back anything with any great confidence in the betfair chase. Like the look of ghizao in the amlin . Any thoughts fancies?

Haydock 2.30 Saphir River

Today will only be this 6 year old gelding's second run for the Russell yard, since leaving the Michael Scudamore yard. Russell has clearly been a lot more successful with her horses than Scu, so the fact this horse run some really sound races for him last season makes me believe there is a lot more to come. Moreover, the fact this horse was still good enough to win over the bare minimum trip over fences for her on his first start, not to mention the fact he must of started 20 lengths behind the leaders, and ended up winning by 7 lengths, makes me think this horse has got a touch of class about him.

Some of his French hurdle form looks amazing too. 3rd in a grade 3, 2nd in a grade 1, and losing by only a nose to the top class Spirit Son all looks very good.

He will definitely cope with conditions, and should take to these funny fixed brush obstacles, as horses who jump fences usually take to these well. This will also be the first time that he'll be going over 3 miles again since his second in the 3 mile grade 1 hurdle in France.

Ascot 1.40 Florafern

I don't think these mares are that well handicapped, and considering Oliver Sherwood's horses are running out of their skin atm - I heard he's had something ridiculous like 8 winners from his last 19 runners - so hopefully there is a lot more to come from this sexy beast as she won when his horses weren't firing, and she can defy the 8lb rise from the handicapper.

Ascot 12.35 Dursey Sound - 7/2 with freds/ts last time I checked

I was actually looking to take this horse on before the prices come out as I thought he was going to be somewhere between 5/4 & 6/4. So my view on the race completely changed when PP opened up at 3/1 yesterday, but as a lot of other horses have been backed in this race, 7/2 is even more amazing.

I have been so impressed with this horse, he's made everything he's raced against in novice hurdles look sooo slow. I think he is a lot more solid than the current favourite Easter Day, who's jumping was really sketchy. Moreover DS showed he really liked these conditions when second in a bumper in Ireland. The filly he lost to do that day is a really decent looking horse for Willie Mullins and has subsequently gone on to win her next two bumper starts.

He has to give weight away, but just think he might have too much class for these, if class is worth anything in these conditions

Gone for Long Run in the big race.. I never get this bloody horse right, he's never won for me when I've backed him! However, I reckon his GC run was miles below form, and if he ran back to any of last season's performance before hand then he will win quite easily today.. so 7/4 looks fair to me.

Cannae believe I typed all that up in 5 mins, I am U N S T O P P A B L E.

I was very tempted to go in very large on silviniaco but with the ground the way it is i think 2/1 is a little short

Good write ups ryan you must be a trader with fingers that fast

SC has really impressed me on his last two starts. I have to say I am very surprised by how close him and LR are in the betting though, shirley needs to improve a good few lbs still. Who knows, maybe he is the real deal.

Probably shouldn't be getting carried away in these conditions, but I cannae help myself.

What have you played?

Nothing in the betfair. I really like ghizao in the amlin. This guy was a top class novice but lost his way a bit. He obviously has a fair bit to find on FR but ground should be fine and trip should suit. Also like trustan times despite the rise. Stays all day and he could just do it at a price under top weight.

I was a really big Ghizao fan, but I lost my faith in him last season. Hard to know if the wind op has worked or not after that last race as it was a bit of a joke in all honesty. Also think he is better on a LH track as he jumps out to his left when under pressure. Guess I'm just pointing out the obvious as he is a 10/1 shot after all, which is fair.

really good race so it is. Have any views on the coral hurdle. I like g.m.o.o.h

go on trustan times

Well done mate, fine pick.