X Factor 2010
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I’m making the assumptions that Matt and Rebecca will be final two and there will be a decent amount of time to trade the final two after 3rd place announced.
A day or two ago I thought Rebecca would win, since then OTHH, YouGov, looks like it’s Matt. But it doesn’t necessarily follow that he’s the best value now.
Got be value in both anyway as mug market means that 21% of book is 1D (plus a much more reasonable 2% for Cher),
The end game is much more changeable in Specials that have a higher talent component, and in this more so - Matt has laryngitis ffs, and there’s just something about Rebecca (ie extraordinary talent).
A day or two ago I thought Rebecca would win, since then OTHH, YouGov, looks like it’s Matt. But it doesn’t necessarily follow that he’s the best value now.
Got be value in both anyway as mug market means that 21% of book is 1D (plus a much more reasonable 2% for Cher),
The end game is much more changeable in Specials that have a higher talent component, and in this more so - Matt has laryngitis ffs, and there’s just something about Rebecca (ie extraordinary talent).
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At the start of final day last year Joe 1.3 and stayed around that price until the final started. The final day this year will start with 3 but quickly lose one.
By my calculations if you think Matt will be less than 1.6 with just him and Rebecca then he’s better value than her now. If you think he will be 1.6 or higher then Rebecca’s better value now. |
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Given the build up and anticipated ramping of her tonight I would think Becca will shorten through tonights show, a touch more if Cher goes. I cant see Matt going really short so for trading purposes it would be a back of becca for me.
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Of course this market will probably react wildly to the individual songs casting aside the best laid plans of mice and men
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For what it's worth, imho, any one of the top 3 can win. Rebbecca is by far the best singer. All the young girls will vote for One Direction and the older females will vote for Matt. So the obvious bet for me is to lay matt at 1.84. I have been betting Rebbecca now for weeks and she may win but I just gotta lay Matt at 1.84 when he should really be 2.6 ish
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there is no value in Matt what so ever. This is so much closer, I wouldnt even write off one direction just yet, all those little girls will be ringing in tonight
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1.83 on a jolly who was 23% ahead of the 2nd and 44% ahead of the 3rd in a reputable poll
on the morning of the final.... is a fair price imvho. |
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rebecca is the value bet ! strict rule in gambling.never bet odds on.! matt is no odds on chance anyway .
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Wot aa says for me
Modagon is a 1.3 shot, as Joe was last time |