X Factor 2010
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09 Dec 10
12:00
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Date Joined:
10 Jul 06
I’ve been monitoring the iTunes ratings for each contestant/performance throughout the series, so I thought I would publish the latest statistics here.
iTunes publishes the number of ratings for each performance, and also the average value of those ratings (between 1.0 for a poor track and 5.0 for a good one). It’s not an unreasonable assumption that the iTunes ratings are roughly proportional to the number of actual downloads.
I have included both the number of ratings, and the average value, in the statistics. I have also combined these two numbers using the formula
number of ratings * (average value – 1)
to give a total rating for each performance. The numbers are correct as of late yesterday evening.
I have included every main performance for each of the finalists (Cher’s save me performances are excluded). Obviously, this means that there is some bias towards performances from early weeks as these have been on iTunes for longer. However, as you would expect, the majority of ratings are made in the first few days of the first week of release so the bias is not that great. Nights In White Satin, for example, ranks fairly highly even though it’s a recent performance. I have included a separate table of statistics for each contestant and also a combined table.
Given that these numbers are the best estimation we have of the ability of each contestant to sell downloads, they are likely to suggest which contestant(s) would make Cowell the most money and therefore which contestant(s) he is most likely to want to ramp during the final. This is NOT the same as who is most likely to win. For example, during last year’s American Idol, Adam Lambert outpolled Kris Allen consistently on iTunes. However, Allen (bland, married, Christian, from a fly-over state where all the AI voters live) beat Lambert (edgy, gay, Jewish, from California where they’re too cool to vote) in the American Idol final. Nevertheless, the judges ramped Lambert during the final and Lambert has sold twice as many records as Allen in their post-Idol careers.
I’d suggest that there are three main uses for these numbers:
1) Who will Cowell and his cronies think is the best business proposition?
2) Which tracks will provide the biggest boost to each contestant if reprised during the final?
3) A bit of fun.
Finally, I have included the equivalent ratings for a few recent non-X Factor songs to provide a further comparison with likely X Factor sales levels. I think I’m right is saying that the Cheryl Cole track is the biggest selling non-X Factor track of 2010.
Best of luck to all with your bets.
Non XF - For Comparison
Rank Ratings Average Total Artist Song
1 844 4.0 2,532.0 Cheryl Cole Promise This
2 479 4.5 1,676.5 Bruno Mars Just The Way You Are
3 387 4.5 1,354.5 Rihanna Only Girl In The World
4 248 4.5 868.0 Cee Lo Green F*** You
5 177 4.5 619.5 Nicole Scherzinger Poison
Matt
Rank Ratings Average Total Song
1 1,567 5.0 6,268.0 First Time Ever I Saw Your Face
2 1,177 5.0 4,708.0 Just The Way You Are
3 945 5.0 3,780.0 When Love Takes Over
4 899 5.0 3,596.0 Baby One More Time
5 363 5.0 1,452.0 Nights In White Satin
6 259 4.5 906.5 Goodbye Yellow Brick Road
7 232 4.5 812.0 Bleeding Love
8 169 4.5 591.5 You've Got The Love
9 149 4.5 521.5 Come Together
10 113 4.5 395.5 I Love Rock N Roll
11 118 4.0 354.0 She's Always A Woman
23,385.0 Grand Total
Rebecca
Rank Ratings Average Total Song
1 356 5.0 1,424.0 Feeling Good
2 369 4.5 1,291.5 Make You Feel My Love
3 297 4.5 1,039.5 Teardrops
4 239 4.5 836.5 Why Don't You Do Right
5 218 4.5 763.0 Wicked Game
6 200 4.5 700.0 Candle In The Wind
7 145 4.5 507.5 Show Me Love
8 116 4.0 348.0 Amazing Grace
9 104 4.0 312.0 Satisfaction
10 71 4.0 213.0 I Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For
11 85 3.5 212.5 Yesterday
7,647.5 Grand Total
One Direction
Rank Ratings Average Total Song
1 464 4.5 1,624.0 Viva La Vida
2 336 4.5 1,176.0 My Life Would Suck Without You
3 296 4.0 888.0 Nobody Knows
4 227 4.0 681.0 Kids In America
5 184 4.5 644.0 Something About The Way You Look Tonight
6 169 4.0 507.0 Total Eclipse Of The Heart
7 120 4.0 360.0 Chasing Cars
8 113 4.0 339.0 Only Girl In The World
9 102 4.0 306.0 All You Need Is Love
10 94 4.0 282.0 Summer Of 69
11 90 4.0 270.0 You Are so Beautiful
7,077.0 Grand Total
Cher
Rank Ratings Average Total Song
1 674 4.0 2,022.0 Stay
2 780 3.5 1,950.0 Just Be Good To Green
3 789 3.0 1,578.0 It's A Hard Knock Life
4 718 3.0 1,436.0 No Diggity/Shout
5 310 3.5 775.0 Sorry Seems To Be The Hardest Word
6 366 2.5 549.0 Empire State Of Mind
7 233 3.0 466.0 Love The Way You Lie
8 190 3.0 380.0 Girlfriend
9 137 3.5 342.5 Imagine
10 174 2.5 261.0 Nothin On You
11 126 3.0 252.0 Walk This Way
10,011.5 Grand Total
All contestants
Overall Rank Ratings Average Total Contestant Song
1 1,567 5.0 6,268.0 Matt First Time Ever I Saw Your Face
2 1,177 5.0 4,708.0 Matt Just The Way You Are
3 945 5.0 3,780.0 Matt When Love Takes Over
4 899 5.0 3,596.0 Matt Baby One More Time
5 674 4.0 2,022.0 Cher Stay
6 780 3.5 1,950.0 Cher Just Be Good To Green
7 464 4.5 1,624.0 One Direction Viva La Vida
8 789 3.0 1,578.0 Cher It's A Hard Knock Life
9 363 5.0 1,452.0 Matt Nights In White Satin
10 718 3.0 1,436.0 Cher No Diggity/Shout
11 356 5.0 1,424.0 Rebecca Feeling Good
12 369 4.5 1,291.5 Rebecca Make You Feel My Love
13 336 4.5 1,176.0 One Direction My Life Would Suck Without You
14 297 4.5 1,039.5 Rebecca Teardrops
15 259 4.5 906.5 Matt Goodbye Yellow Brick Road
16 296 4.0 888.0 One Direction Nobody Knows
17 239 4.5 836.5 Rebecca Why Don't You Do Right
18 232 4.5 812.0 Matt Bleeding Love
19 310 3.5 775.0 Cher Sorry Seems To Be The Hardest Word
20 218 4.5 763.0 Rebecca Wicked Game
21 200 4.5 700.0 Rebecca Candle In The Wind
22 227 4.0 681.0 One Direction Kids In America
23 184 4.5 644.0 One Direction Something About The Way You Look Tonight
24 169 4.5 591.5 Matt You've Got The Love
25 366 2.5 549.0 Cher Empire State Of Mind
26 149 4.5 521.5 Matt Come Together
27 145 4.5 507.5 Rebecca Show Me Love
28 169 4.0 507.0 One Direction Total Eclipse Of The Heart
29 233 3.0 466.0 Cher Love The Way You Lie
30 113 4.5 395.5 Matt I Love Rock N Roll
31 190 3.0 380.0 Cher Girlfriend
32 120 4.0 360.0 One Direction Chasing Cars
33 118 4.0 354.0 Matt She's Always A Woman
34 116 4.0 348.0 Rebecca Amazing Grace
35 137 3.5 342.5 Cher Imagine
36 113 4.0 339.0 One Direction Only Girl In The World
37 104 4.0 312.0 Rebecca Satisfaction
38 102 4.0 306.0 One Direction All You Need Is Love
39 94 4.0 282.0 One Direction Summer Of 69
40 90 4.0 270.0 One Direction You Are so Beautiful
41 174 2.5 261.0 Cher Nothin On You
42 126 3.0 252.0 Cher Walk This Way
43 71 4.0 213.0 Rebecca I Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For
44 85 3.5 212.5 Rebecca Yesterday
iTunes publishes the number of ratings for each performance, and also the average value of those ratings (between 1.0 for a poor track and 5.0 for a good one). It’s not an unreasonable assumption that the iTunes ratings are roughly proportional to the number of actual downloads.
I have included both the number of ratings, and the average value, in the statistics. I have also combined these two numbers using the formula
number of ratings * (average value – 1)
to give a total rating for each performance. The numbers are correct as of late yesterday evening.
I have included every main performance for each of the finalists (Cher’s save me performances are excluded). Obviously, this means that there is some bias towards performances from early weeks as these have been on iTunes for longer. However, as you would expect, the majority of ratings are made in the first few days of the first week of release so the bias is not that great. Nights In White Satin, for example, ranks fairly highly even though it’s a recent performance. I have included a separate table of statistics for each contestant and also a combined table.
Given that these numbers are the best estimation we have of the ability of each contestant to sell downloads, they are likely to suggest which contestant(s) would make Cowell the most money and therefore which contestant(s) he is most likely to want to ramp during the final. This is NOT the same as who is most likely to win. For example, during last year’s American Idol, Adam Lambert outpolled Kris Allen consistently on iTunes. However, Allen (bland, married, Christian, from a fly-over state where all the AI voters live) beat Lambert (edgy, gay, Jewish, from California where they’re too cool to vote) in the American Idol final. Nevertheless, the judges ramped Lambert during the final and Lambert has sold twice as many records as Allen in their post-Idol careers.
I’d suggest that there are three main uses for these numbers:
1) Who will Cowell and his cronies think is the best business proposition?
2) Which tracks will provide the biggest boost to each contestant if reprised during the final?
3) A bit of fun.
Finally, I have included the equivalent ratings for a few recent non-X Factor songs to provide a further comparison with likely X Factor sales levels. I think I’m right is saying that the Cheryl Cole track is the biggest selling non-X Factor track of 2010.
Best of luck to all with your bets.
Non XF - For Comparison
Rank Ratings Average Total Artist Song
1 844 4.0 2,532.0 Cheryl Cole Promise This
2 479 4.5 1,676.5 Bruno Mars Just The Way You Are
3 387 4.5 1,354.5 Rihanna Only Girl In The World
4 248 4.5 868.0 Cee Lo Green F*** You
5 177 4.5 619.5 Nicole Scherzinger Poison
Matt
Rank Ratings Average Total Song
1 1,567 5.0 6,268.0 First Time Ever I Saw Your Face
2 1,177 5.0 4,708.0 Just The Way You Are
3 945 5.0 3,780.0 When Love Takes Over
4 899 5.0 3,596.0 Baby One More Time
5 363 5.0 1,452.0 Nights In White Satin
6 259 4.5 906.5 Goodbye Yellow Brick Road
7 232 4.5 812.0 Bleeding Love
8 169 4.5 591.5 You've Got The Love
9 149 4.5 521.5 Come Together
10 113 4.5 395.5 I Love Rock N Roll
11 118 4.0 354.0 She's Always A Woman
23,385.0 Grand Total
Rebecca
Rank Ratings Average Total Song
1 356 5.0 1,424.0 Feeling Good
2 369 4.5 1,291.5 Make You Feel My Love
3 297 4.5 1,039.5 Teardrops
4 239 4.5 836.5 Why Don't You Do Right
5 218 4.5 763.0 Wicked Game
6 200 4.5 700.0 Candle In The Wind
7 145 4.5 507.5 Show Me Love
8 116 4.0 348.0 Amazing Grace
9 104 4.0 312.0 Satisfaction
10 71 4.0 213.0 I Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For
11 85 3.5 212.5 Yesterday
7,647.5 Grand Total
One Direction
Rank Ratings Average Total Song
1 464 4.5 1,624.0 Viva La Vida
2 336 4.5 1,176.0 My Life Would Suck Without You
3 296 4.0 888.0 Nobody Knows
4 227 4.0 681.0 Kids In America
5 184 4.5 644.0 Something About The Way You Look Tonight
6 169 4.0 507.0 Total Eclipse Of The Heart
7 120 4.0 360.0 Chasing Cars
8 113 4.0 339.0 Only Girl In The World
9 102 4.0 306.0 All You Need Is Love
10 94 4.0 282.0 Summer Of 69
11 90 4.0 270.0 You Are so Beautiful
7,077.0 Grand Total
Cher
Rank Ratings Average Total Song
1 674 4.0 2,022.0 Stay
2 780 3.5 1,950.0 Just Be Good To Green
3 789 3.0 1,578.0 It's A Hard Knock Life
4 718 3.0 1,436.0 No Diggity/Shout
5 310 3.5 775.0 Sorry Seems To Be The Hardest Word
6 366 2.5 549.0 Empire State Of Mind
7 233 3.0 466.0 Love The Way You Lie
8 190 3.0 380.0 Girlfriend
9 137 3.5 342.5 Imagine
10 174 2.5 261.0 Nothin On You
11 126 3.0 252.0 Walk This Way
10,011.5 Grand Total
All contestants
Overall Rank Ratings Average Total Contestant Song
1 1,567 5.0 6,268.0 Matt First Time Ever I Saw Your Face
2 1,177 5.0 4,708.0 Matt Just The Way You Are
3 945 5.0 3,780.0 Matt When Love Takes Over
4 899 5.0 3,596.0 Matt Baby One More Time
5 674 4.0 2,022.0 Cher Stay
6 780 3.5 1,950.0 Cher Just Be Good To Green
7 464 4.5 1,624.0 One Direction Viva La Vida
8 789 3.0 1,578.0 Cher It's A Hard Knock Life
9 363 5.0 1,452.0 Matt Nights In White Satin
10 718 3.0 1,436.0 Cher No Diggity/Shout
11 356 5.0 1,424.0 Rebecca Feeling Good
12 369 4.5 1,291.5 Rebecca Make You Feel My Love
13 336 4.5 1,176.0 One Direction My Life Would Suck Without You
14 297 4.5 1,039.5 Rebecca Teardrops
15 259 4.5 906.5 Matt Goodbye Yellow Brick Road
16 296 4.0 888.0 One Direction Nobody Knows
17 239 4.5 836.5 Rebecca Why Don't You Do Right
18 232 4.5 812.0 Matt Bleeding Love
19 310 3.5 775.0 Cher Sorry Seems To Be The Hardest Word
20 218 4.5 763.0 Rebecca Wicked Game
21 200 4.5 700.0 Rebecca Candle In The Wind
22 227 4.0 681.0 One Direction Kids In America
23 184 4.5 644.0 One Direction Something About The Way You Look Tonight
24 169 4.5 591.5 Matt You've Got The Love
25 366 2.5 549.0 Cher Empire State Of Mind
26 149 4.5 521.5 Matt Come Together
27 145 4.5 507.5 Rebecca Show Me Love
28 169 4.0 507.0 One Direction Total Eclipse Of The Heart
29 233 3.0 466.0 Cher Love The Way You Lie
30 113 4.5 395.5 Matt I Love Rock N Roll
31 190 3.0 380.0 Cher Girlfriend
32 120 4.0 360.0 One Direction Chasing Cars
33 118 4.0 354.0 Matt She's Always A Woman
34 116 4.0 348.0 Rebecca Amazing Grace
35 137 3.5 342.5 Cher Imagine
36 113 4.0 339.0 One Direction Only Girl In The World
37 104 4.0 312.0 Rebecca Satisfaction
38 102 4.0 306.0 One Direction All You Need Is Love
39 94 4.0 282.0 One Direction Summer Of 69
40 90 4.0 270.0 One Direction You Are so Beautiful
41 174 2.5 261.0 Cher Nothin On You
42 126 3.0 252.0 Cher Walk This Way
43 71 4.0 213.0 Rebecca I Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For
44 85 3.5 212.5 Rebecca Yesterday
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Replies: 29
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Have you been snowed in
 Quality work Peter. Amazing Grace's postion ,Gym  |
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good work thx for sharing
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So Matt has the top 4 and rebecca has the bottom 2? Matt has 5 full marks and Rebecca has 1?
Wonder how Rebecca backers will answer that one ................................. (more nonsense no doubt let's see) ............. |
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VERY good work peter! thanks!
rebecca struggling on itunes, but not that far behind matt for last week's songs. interesting stuff. |
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Thanks Peter.
Why do you subtract 1 from the rating values in your formula? |
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Peter
Great stuff. that makes it about 55 polls now with Matt winning every one easily ...................... Say it with me Peter ................................ hmmmmmmmmm! |
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Thanks Pete
P.S. Get out more |
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Great work PP.
Shame that a great thread has been hijacked and is on its way to being ruined. |
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Yep, excellent work PP.
I would just say, that rather like youtube, the itunes demographic is very different to the demographic who will be voting over the weekend Still very interesting though. |
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Pete
they don't like it up em! ha ha ha ha hmmmm |
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Jesus wept
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Squraes
I can't read what you're saying and if you can me why don't you just block me???? (He's obviously 'hooked') on me. hmmmm |
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Looking even more a certainty Matt wins now and they have no answer ..................... I've got them surrounded!
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Thanks for that stats,
however itunes would be the demographic where you would expect Matt and 1D to do well. Can you for example imagine Mr and Mrs Boris Becker sitting at their comp with white headphones? Also, these cannot take into account the likeability factor. Cher 2nd in downloads but was in the bottom two not just this week but in previous weeks. |
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+rebcecca's songs are played on national radio - so why download :p
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AA et al,
Thanks. No I’m not snowed in but my car was being MOT’d today so I have had some time on my hands. I emigrated from Scotland many years ago and now live in South Bucks. It’s been mainly sunny here today. It didn’t take long to create my post. All I’ve done is to cut and paste some numbers from a spreadsheet. It’s funny the perspective you get from reading posts on here. My perspective is that I log on here only a few times a week and spend very little time on X Factor, and that you guys are here all the time. My favourite part of the forum is the 24 hour a day rolling news service provided by squares and I am continually amazed by the many hours he must put in to do this. I agree that the demographic of iTunes is not the same as that of the voters. The same is true of all of the other statistics quoted on here. Even the YouGov poll is probably inaccurate as I don’t think it takes account of multiple voting or vote transference. This is the first year that iTunes numbers have been available for X Factor, so it will be interesting to see if there is a correlation to the actual results. Henry, The reason that I subtract one from the average rating is that a rating of 1.0 means that the person really dislikes the track so my thinking is that it shouldn’t contribute at all to a positive score. If I didn’t subtract the one then it would favour someone who gets a higher number of ratings than others but with a lower average score. In this case, that would boost Cher’s numbers slightly at the expense of the others. Lou, Yes, these numbers do seem to favour Matt. However, my custom in these markets is to green up at least as far as not losing money on any of the finalists. This year there are too many unknowns for my liking. Will Matt’s voice hold out? If it doesn’t will he win on a sympathy vote or lose out due to his illness? Will Christina Aguilera complement Rebecca’s voice or overpower her? As I said earlier, and others have also pointed out, Kris Allen beat Adam Lambert in AI despite that fact that Lambert was a much better singer, led all the polls (including iTunes) and has had a much more successful career since Idol. None of the statistics on here, including mine, provide guarantees of victory. As you might expect, though, Matt is my biggest green. Ashley, I don’t understand the relevance of Boris Becker or whether he buys music. If he does, why would he not use iTunes? It’s not hard. There’s even a German site if his English isn’t up to it though I guess he wouldn’t be able to see the X Factor songs from the German site. |
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Thanks peter
i seem to remember you got involved with the XF v RATM battle last year ?? |
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AA,
No I wasn't involved in RATM last year. However, I did post earlier this year on my incredulity at the Wagner Facebook campaign to annoy Cowell by sending him money every week. We discussed RATM briefly on that thread. |
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Will Christina Aguilera complement Rebecca’s voice Indeed PP.
My thoughts entirely. How is Christina going to cope with some-one who cannot hold a melody. And is frequently out of tune. |
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And what if Christina moves an inch how will Rebecca counteract it?
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Ashley
You're obviously looking for excuses for Rebecca. however itunes would be the demographic where you would expect Matt and 1D to do well. Can you for example imagine Mr and Mrs Boris Becker sitting at their comp with white headphones? Also, these cannot take into account the likeability factor. Cher 2nd in downloads but was in the bottom two not just this week but in previous weeks. Even if we do allow a little leeway for that (and i can't see whay we should at all) Matt's so far in front what difference does it make. As I said on an earlier thread IF Rebecca is catching Matt it just means she was 20 lengths behind and now she's only 18 lengths behind! wow! |
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Lou you said it was a singing competition on another thread
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Of course it's a singing competition. Do you HONESTLY think it's not?
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Then why would it matter if Christina moves an inch when performing with Rebecca
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you're wasting your time stroodle.
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stroodle
Because it helps to at least 'perform' or 'sell' a song I'm sure you'd begrudgingly agree? Rebecca can't even walk without 'coming out of my comfort zone' pmsl. Why do you think she's referred to as 'The Singing candle'? |
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I’ve just seen a couple of posts from OTHH on another thread from yesterday. From what I’ve read, his posts are normally very reliable. He posted as follows:
further to the Popbitch posting this afternoon - I'm told Matt has won seven out of nine public votes, including the last five weeks on the bounce. The last two weeks he's apparently received practically double his nearest rival. That's a decent bet at evens! and my info is that OD have been "doing a Lloyd", ie hovering around the 10-12% level, unable to make decent gains even when singing last. Cowell has resigned himself to them not winning. The only surviving act other than Matt to have won a week is..... Cher! These posts are consistent with my iTunes numbers. Matt has won on iTunes seven weeks out of nine – including the last five weeks on the bounce. The only other surviving act to have won a week is Cher – when she sang Stay. The other week that Matt lost on iTunes was Top 16 when he was second to Aiden’s Mad World. I would not be surprised if Matt had double the votes of his nearest rival when he sang Nights In White Satin. However, I am surprised if that was true last week. The iTunes numbers were a lot closer last week. If OTHH is correct then iTunes is under-estimating Matt’s support. It seems to me that the final will be all about Matt’s performance level. The most interesting scenario will be if Matt sings badly due to his illness. The judges would have the choice of a) bigging him up with very sympathetic comments reminding viewers of his previous performances, or b) using his sub-par performance to de-ramp him despite the fact that he has sold most downloads on iTunes during the series and topped the vote seven times out of nine. It’s not at all clear to me which of a) or b) is more probable, or how the voters would raact in these scenarios, particularly b). |
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cheers pp. an additional sympthy vote last week on top of a bit of an itunes lead might give him a lead of double the next best in last week's vote perhaps?
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Yes, it looks as though he's getting a large likeability/sympathy vote as well as the singing vote. Very bad news for the others.
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