Yougov poll splashed all over The Sun

Rebecca

Any link or is just in the paper?

part of the Wagner XF Plot uncovered article

I've got the paper (I'd say my housemate bought it but nobody would believe me!)

Matt 37%, Bex 27%, Cher 10% top 3.

Oh ok.

Any %'s?

Matt, Rebecca, 1,2 ?

Yes some interesting data here.

1D poor in outright but ok in "who do you think will win" which can be a more reliable poll in say elections I think.

Not sure Cher is safe on this. She showed last week she punches below her weight in polls so will need to attract casual viewers to get the bounce she needs. Not saying she won't at this stage. 3rd highest in who people want to see go out this week only 8% behind katie.

As you say confirms wagner can't win.

Who is your fav / Who do you think will win (2 different questions)

Matt 37 / 40
Rebecca 27 / 16
Cher 10 / 7
OD 8 / 23
Mary 6 / 2
Wagner 5 / 5
Kate 2 / 2
DK - / 5

click the image

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/showbiz/tv/x_factor/3248765/Wagner-X-Factor-plot-uncovered.html

Who do you want to see eliminated / who do you think will leave

Wagner 63 / 14
Katie 18 / 37
Cher 10 / 11
OD 4 / 2
Mary 2 / 19
Rebecca 1 / 3
Matt 0 / 1
DK 2 / 13

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/showbiz/tv/x_factor/3248765/Wagner-X-Fa...

Who do you think will win, is a poor question GB2.

It's not surprising people think 1D are doing well, what withg the late slots, excessive ramping and screamers. Doesn't produce votes tho.

Not sure that's the case fll. Yougov etc ask this at elections and I'm sure I have heard pundits say it is a good indicator.

Fav Judge

SC 37 *
DM 25
CC 23
LW 6

(*don't usually see this in fav judge polls, but guess he couldn't stand to see anything else printed in his fav paper)

cheers btw squares.

What I'd have expected. A nice big push for Rebecca in the final and she's there. If she can perform at a decent level obviously.

27%/16% for Rebecca for example rings true ie "I like Rebecca but don't think she will win".  Becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

very true George - her fans may not vote because they don't think she can win!!

Cher will get the type of bounce Olly got imho.

Their Initial Poll.

Matt Cardle 26
Mary Byrne 17
Rebecca Ferguson 10
Cher 6
1D 3

So Cardie +11, Rebecca +17, Mary -11, Cher +4, 1D +5

I think she might just get enough to get through, but think she needs her second song to be something with wide appeal rather than more of the same.  I don't think has anywhere near the wide appeal of Olly/JLS for the longer term.

think SHE has

1D are probably one of the silliest prices in specials since the tarts with violins.

They'll believe she can win in the final.
Cowell will make sure of that.

It smacks of her 'fans' having apathy last week so there's a big motivation to vote plus the story of 'shock' b2 appearance she'll be comfortably in double figs I suspect. Better performances would help oc.

No breakdown of demographics on yougov yet. That will be very interesting e.g. is it still 4 to 1 blokes voting for wagner.

Off topic but their analysis of mckeith is pathetic ie they demonstrate she is marmite then conclude that she is unpopular so will be voted off.  Wish they were odds makers in the high street.

She looks in trouble to me.

Not particularly likeable acts rarely get much of bounce and often find themselves B2 2 weeks in a row.

With 1D voters obviousy more fanatical than most, Mary's strong regional vote and the Waggy Wagon really getting into gear this week, she could find herslf improving a little, but still not doing enough.

Look at this poll, then look at then market. XF is a big market therefore 80% mugpunters.

The above people in this thread a while ago have probably already stretched their books in the way that is now suggested in today's poll, therefore market may not move much from this poll giving opportunity for others.

Assuming the polls were done during this week, she probably got extra support anyway following B2 appearance.

What a suprise!


hmmmmmmmm

FLL is the advanced twitter search facility still working? I have been getting "no results" messages for 2 days now

I've backed Bex @4-1 on the back of this today tho, she is doing better than I thought. For the first time I can see value there.

Thought Lou didn't believe what the papers print



only if it backs up his opinions then

Assume articles like this encourage extra voting too ??

Very little squares.

I remember the Star warning about Vickers being in danger the week she went out.

The vast majority of people just vote for their favourite act with no regard to leaks, polls, etc.

squares Date Joined: 26 Feb 01
Add contact | Send message When: 27 Nov 10 10:43

Thought Lou didn't believe what the papers print
only if it backs up his opinions then

hmmmmmm.....

GB2 it was playing up a little last night. I've not looked today

tbf, not many xf voters would read the star [:p]

yeah, that's what I was going to say Cider - the Sun's circulation must be much greater, and amongst core voters.

OK thanks fll. Very useful tool for establishing regional votes so sad if its crocked.

OT, Hasselhoff doing a Baywaytch routine on DWTS final on Watch atm

shrewdbury Joined: 25 Sep 09
Replies: 4327 27 Nov 10 10:51   


squares Date Joined: 26 Feb 01
Add contact | Send message When: 27 Nov 10 10:43

Thought Lou didn't believe what the papers print
only if it backs up his opinions then

hmmmmmm.....

Someone tell Squares i don't belive in all these 'leeks'.  Matt this, Rebecca that etc.  But a poll, although it not conclusive evidence can't be a bad thing to see my man well clear.  Slight difference between the two even Squares will grudgingly admit I hope.

PP already paying out on matt lou. You on there?

I guess we can totally discount this poll considering Cher was bottom of the vote last week and had to be saved by the judges avoiding deadlock.

George

No just on here and laid all the others. 

PP already paying out?

True the Sun has a big circulation. I still believe the overwhelming majaority of viewers vote on what they see on the saturday night and have little or no regard for what they read in the papers.

Whether it be this or negative/positive stories about the acts.

I guess we can totally discount this poll considering Cher was bottom of the vote last week and had to be saved by the judges avoiding deadlock.

Bounce factor.

All the poll says is Matt doing excellently, Rebecca doing very well, other 5 rubbish. It's less easy to make distinctions between the bottom 5.

Henry

matt seems to be well clear in just about every poll we've seen for the last 6 or 7 weeks.  Can't be a bad thing but wouldn't be too confident with it.

This is a measurement of core support Tutunka.

It shows that given running order, performance and judges comments any of the bottom 5 could be in the danger zone.

Rebecca and especially Matt have enough support to survive come what may.

No Lou just a poor early/late April Fool joke. Sorry. That said I have seen them pay out dafter things than that.

Re the yougov poll thinking about it tthis should be accurate given their methodology and demographic ie it doesn't just pick up the twitterati vote which has made aiden and cher look safe when they haven't been.

I thought I has saved a link to the first yougov poll but can't find it. If anyone has a link can they post it?

Henry
matt seems to be well clear in just about every poll we've seen for the last 6 or 7 weeks.  Can't be a bad thing but wouldn't be too confident with it.

Maybe you should take this opportunity to back Rebecca. (May only be available this morning and afternoon, but who can predict this mug market).

fwiw I joined unibet to back Bex vs 1d @2.15. They took my first £20 and the rest has been sent for approval . Decent price tho.

That looks a decent bet cider.


GB2.
http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Life-YouGov-XFactor-221010.pdf

Waggy gone for a walk in the market. Support for Matt

Yes thanks fll found it. Search yougov site for other polls. Actually seems to confirm the who do you think will win as a bit of a nonsense as they have cher and aiden up there. Matt "want to win" always in lead.

Best you can say is that it is a snapshot at a point in time. As has been pointed out the polls before the performance are pretty meaningless and are really only a tool to help measure reaction to the actual performance

Not surprising.  Both looked value lay / back bets respectively.

Surely laying Waggy at 8s / 9s is the bet of the century?

I've had to top up my bet on Matt at 2s as well this week.  His popularity shows no sign of abating just yet - and he could have a decent week with at least one of his two songs...

Sell @9 even better Dizz.

Got to think there's some value in 1d not to make the final 3 @4-1.
You'd probably favour them edging through with Cowell's help, but not at 80%.

Henry
matt seems to be well clear in just about every poll we've seen for the last 6 or 7 weeks.  Can't be a bad thing but wouldn't be too confident with it.

Maybe you should take this opportunity to back Rebecca. (May only be available this morning and afternoon, but who can predict this mug market).

I've tried to back her sice she drifted last week at 9/2 on here but she hasn't quite reached it and now going in so looks like I won't be on.  I've tried to put almost £400 on her to make her a 'taker' only.  Only other realistic winner apart from her and Matt is One D but I just don't think they're much cop at all so won't be backing them back.  Specially at about LF.

Dizzy

Yes I've been saying since last week that 2/1 is a decent bet on Matt.  We all pretty much think it's realistically out of the top 3 making him a 2/1 shot in theory but I do believe he's the pick of the bunch so 2/1 a good price for backers I think.

George Bailey Joined: 04 Apr 10
Replies: 1955 27 Nov 10 10:25   
27%/16% for Rebecca for example rings true ie "I like Rebecca but don't think she will win".  Becomes a self fulfilling prophecy

Or it can work the other way GB2, where her supporters are more likely to vote as they they think she needs the support.  Voter apathy can be a killer, just ask Javine Hilton! [;)]

Javine Hilton HF? Slipped under my radar. 

I think the psychology of voting can be over analysed.  I don't think voters think too much about it though if their favourite is in trouble one week it obviously sometimes motivates them the next ie the bounce.

Other than that the usual stuff:

1. I vote for who i think is the best on the night
2. I vote for my favourite regardless of performance
3. I vote for the worst to p*ss the establishment off

For 99% the Sun poll won't impact at all on their voting pattern or whether they vote at all.

George

Yes I can see that.  I wonder how many change their vote according to each week's performance?  Cher perhaps being the best with 'Stay' one week, Matt with 'First Time Ever' and Mary last week with 'Something'  I wonder how many vote on it like that compared with say 'Matt's my favourite and I'm gonna vote him no matter what'?

voter apathy is an extremely important factor imho. In most of reality shows its why the middle ability singers/dancers or middling popularity celebs always seem to get weeded out first.

george, would you not say 2 is more pervasive than 1 in your top3 when it comes to voting?

As always - great info and analysis! TY one and all.
Good work, fellas!

Lou I think the floating voters are a large minority of the vote and also I think people can switch allegiance from favourites quickly. Beccy lost a lot of hardcore fans with her Yesterday performance I think.

CJ, absolutely. You have to have a motivation to vote in any "election".  One "test" I have is imagining with each act/celebrity (gmooh) is whether someone would be ars*d to go to the time and expense of registering a vote.  Clearly with the Sheryl's, Felicity's etc there comes a point when they can't be.

Nick, definitely yes. That is why Wagner or any marmite act that is hated more than loved can't win a reality contest once it effectively becomes a vote to evict. With wagner probably 70/30 against him at best (for him). Those 70% will vote for almost anyone in the final on a double header vote.

As always - great info and analysis! TY one and all.
Good work, fellas!

Only too pleased ..................

five leaves left Joined: 24 Dec 05
Replies: 14774 27 Nov 10 10:32 
1D are probably one of the silliest prices in specials since the tarts with violins.



ah, one of my finest lays (financially, of course)

Can any of the 11/4 one D backers tell us what exactly is in their favour

apart from having Cowell as their mentor please?

cause it sure as heck isn't in any opinion poll.

i fancied them initially, but they havent gelled at all obviously and cowell has needed the backing singers to make ek sound ok. think he has been most disappointed with their lack of progress. now it's just the cowell ramping and the fact he'll put them with take that in the final that keeps them low

good point nick.

i don't think they're terrible...they just do what they do.

Should have stuck to my own original advice, what a time to back Bex ffs !