X Factor 2010
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26 Nov 10
00:57
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Date Joined:
27 May 02
Been thinking about this a while now and this may come back to bite me but here goes.... This year's XF is about bringing the show to the USA next year. Therefore, it needs an artist/group from the UK that will travel and appeal to their market, to give the show in the US a bit of creedence. Obviously it's all about who gets the most votes, but Simon will stitch up One Direction in the final IMHO (if they get there) and stick them up first. SC has already said how exportable Rebecca and Matt are, and how they would do the UK proud, basically referring to the bringing of the UK show to US shores.
Basically, I'm saying I think One Direction at 3.7s or so is a fantastic lay, but I believe Matt is the artist so rather than lay 1D, I'll be backing Matt. However for the pro-gamblers out there, I'd say lay 1D because realistically they should be about 8s/10s.
So, final 3 for me is Matt 1st, Rebecca 2nd and 1D 3rd...
GL all!
Basically, I'm saying I think One Direction at 3.7s or so is a fantastic lay, but I believe Matt is the artist so rather than lay 1D, I'll be backing Matt. However for the pro-gamblers out there, I'd say lay 1D because realistically they should be about 8s/10s.
So, final 3 for me is Matt 1st, Rebecca 2nd and 1D 3rd...
GL all!
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Replies: 44
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Yup, it's been said before but it's still true. Agree with the final order too, unless Rebecca starts to shine and Matt has further outbursts.
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Why should the pro gamblers not do exactly what you're doing captain? [;)]
I agree on 1d, but definitely think Rebecca can turn over Matt |
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I agree captain. Watched them every week and think they're very very average. I thought at Simon's house they sang a nice song with good harmonies and I thought 'this lot aint bad at all' but they've really done nothing for me on the live shows and on pure talent only I'd have had them out by now.
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17 takes to get that Lou [;)]
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17 takes george?
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They're my only red of the fromt 4.
I'm starting to worry that if Rebecca doesn't come back to form he''l ramp the little buggers to victory. I hope you're right captain and he would back Matt over them. |
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I honestly don't think he can get them over the line fig
Public more suspicious about him ramping is 'own' acts |
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George
What did the 17 takes mean. Do you mean 17 takes to get their song down at Simon's house? |
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yep true and they're pretty average too.
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^ this
It was a joke by the way. I couldn't make filming that day |
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I'm sure he will ramp Matt over 1D if Rebecca falls away.
GB - If I had tens of thousands, I'd be laying 1D but instead I'm backing Matt because I don't think Rebecca can beat him. The girl don't move....literally!!! lol |
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She has moved! ..............Backwards in the betting.
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Matt is SO contempory. She is SO '60s. She's no Leona either.
Matt wins. Simples ;) |
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captain - how is he contemporary?
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Most contemporary female singers are clearly hugely influenced by the 60's and earlier.
Matt on the otherhand is about 10 years out of date, |
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Captain
I don't think she's so 60's at all to be honest. Yes she's a mile away from Leona's standard but she aint bad you know! Leona was fantastic and I'm sure a lot of people would say the best there's ever been on X Factor (second to Rhydian imo) so not many are going to come close. I think Matt will win but Rebecca must be a threat as are some of the others. |
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but that is SCowell's idea of contemporary and current
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..which I guess makes him contemporary in Cowell's book, but not in the real world,
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SNAP, I assume
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lol yep
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He's no copycat, does his own versions of songs, looks now, and has the most amazing voice...come on.. When he sings Bruno Mars or that track from 2 weeks back in the final...It's game over.
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Captain
Yes I think he's very good and the stand out act but it's far from over. The odds currently say that about 66% of the time he wouldn't win it! |
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Rebecca is good but she just doesn't do anything other than sing (obviously important). I think she will come 2nd though! She could still win it, but Matt for me wins it 66% of the time in my book! I know what the odds say, hence the value in Matt and laying 1D!
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Captain
Yes I agree Matt is better than a 2/1 shot in my eyes. I'm already on for a few bob but good value for others who could back him imo. |
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I think my past record shows that I'm no ramper either...just offering my wisdom :)
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how on earth is he contemporary though?!
he's like a boring james blunt. |
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Captain speaks sense as always.
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A boring James Blunt is pratically impossible, GTL. But I disagree anyways. He sings songs he shouldn't really sing and they really work. He doesn't just play it safe like previous winners and this year's challengers have done. He looks like the boy next door which is a big look in the States (and here). I expect odds of 2.5 come Sunday 10pm, if not lower, and then it will just keep going lower and lower.
Pratically guaranteed final 2, where his odds will be 1.6 I reckon...if not lower... |
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i dont feel matts odds in the final are about matts performances in the next few weeks, i feel we know what to expect he makes the top 3 easy, for me its about can becca raise her game and come from behind, if she can i dont see matt being a 1.6 shot
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Captain
Something along those lines yes. |
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Seems like the Sun poll is backing up my thinking...
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Hope so Captain. Things not looking bad it mut be said.
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Indeed captain.
37 matt, 27 becca, 8 1D. If that was a YouGov election poll, 1D would be 1000/1 |
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On other polls 1D have pushed Beccy into 3rd slot though I accept their supporters are more likely to vote for them online.
I can see measurable momentum behind them at the moment. Will it last? Who knows. |
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Things looking very good, I'd say. I didn't think 1D were ever in with a shout. Hence a great price to lay! Two horse race without doubt, Cher got a good response probably because of the 'fell sorry' factor as she was bottom 2 last week
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What did I say?
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Even Simon said he was contemporary this weekend! I knew his odds would come in but 1.8 already is even better than I would have thought. Punters have realised he's going to storm it. The 1D lay at 3.7 was too good to be true.
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I can see measurable momentum behind them at the moment. Will it last? Who knows.
Didn't even last two days or am I being a bit premature? Thing with 1D is that I'm trying to work out where they differ to JLS. Is it that being that bit older JLS pulled in the mums vote nore? |
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Captain
You der man! |