this is spectacularly off topic i know, but....

sure gtl, my view is that the betfair markets is that weight of money dictates that most bf markets are spot on. this one strikes me as the same; matt and rebecca look nailed on for the final but how much shorter would they be even then? one direction, i believe will make the final but even then will probably only be a point shorter. there might be more value in the aidan and mary price when you consider they are likely to last to the last 6, but i think the market is sophisticated enough to hold their prices to an extent. i think the real value in these markets is to be found before they form properly, after that the real 'value' opportunities are scarce. i can think of two - false prices after a couple of weeks n mary and aidan that were in hindsight magnificent lays...

not as good as the cher lay at 6.8 though!!

i guess what i'm trying to say for the outright market is, is there another cher/mary/aiden price plunge in the offing?  what do we expect matt's price to do this week?  after all his price has fluctuated a fair bit.  7/4 out to 11/4 into 7/4.  at this rate he could be back out to 11/4 or pushing odds on next week?

nick - do you think the likely fact that rebecca will at some point get a pimp slot is already factored into her price?

any view on the elimination prices?

just trying to start a bit of betting discussion, and get away from the digital spy threads on here....

i spend a lot of time looking for angles mate, and i dont think personally there is any mileage left in the or market. if you are not involved now, there's very little to excite. the elimination markets are different and have been fantastically ripe for plucking. treyc and katie were both 3.8 ish at the beginning of last week. the key thing to remember this week is that it is the last week where the eliminated contestant doesnt go on tour - so thin this, who do they not want on tour. its obvious to me they want katie, but it is looking v difficult for them, esp with the f ix scandal, to get her through another week...

yep traditionally the last 8 go on tour, but if they want to take her on tour they'll take her in my view, regardless of whether or not she goes this week.

it would be getting to the point of cruelty to save her again and continue the humiliation of failing to get any decent public support week-in week-out.

The Star reports a double elimination, and this is what Jeff Brazier said on TM on Monday morning:

"Jeff Brazier talking about a double elim on TM.

Said there needs to be a double elimination as there are to many atm (obviously).  Just one still leaves four for the final weekend?

Said it could be this weekend or beyond that.

Said that could bring Paije into the bottom three with Katie.

When asked about Wagner.  He said no, not Wagner.   The last 8 go on tour and people want Wagner on tour."

couple of interesting match bet prices:
mary to beat katie 2/5
mary top over 28 8/11

I'd also read somewhere that they might mix it up on the tour whereby some contestants don't do the whole tour (probably difficult for someone like Mary to commit to it in its entirety?)

squares - so if it's a double elimination the bottom of the vote this week doesn't go on tour but the others do?

evens about katie to finish bottom of vote then?

looks that way, but I'm sure they'll include who they want on the tour or on various dates of it anyway.  I guess some of the also rans only do one or two songs anyway.

just go to The Star online to read the article.  Struggling to copy it over.

katie at evens looks v v solid

sorry nick but xf market isn't always right.

Leon Jackson was about 20/1 about now
Joe McElderry was a similar story
Leona Lewis was about 7/1 at this point with Ben Mills a clear favourite.

I couldn't have anyone at evens pre show.
Anything could happen.
More tears, a blazing rows between judges, Katie actually singing well, or something else that makes her memorable...

The problem is Simon doesn't like signing guys to his label. Ben was ramped and ramped by Simon and then dropped like a stone for  Leonna.

interesting point tutunka, and yeah maybe youre right - i dont see any mileage in this current market though, and i think that in general bf markets are spot on. specials markets maybe less so.....