X Factor 2010
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I'm not totally discounting their chances as they clearly have a loyal base already, Simon wants them to do well and they can shirley only improve but the logic that they are bound to be shorter when getting to the final is absurd.
Let's say the final 5 are as per the market as it stands now. When Aiden goes the higher percentage of his votes will go to Matt. Admittedly 1D won't do too badly out of this either. When Mary goes after the semi, only an idiot would suggest that a decent stack of her vote will go to 1D (the fact that they have an Irish kid in the band is irrelevent). When Rebecca goes on the Saturday night they have the same problem as the majority of her voters will want a proper adults act to win and not a kids band. I actually think Mary will be in the final with the two faves but the point remains.
It will be a rocky ride for layers as they have to put up with comparisons with The Beatles for the next two months but their final week drift will be reminiscent of the lovely Eggnog's as realisation hits that their popularity peaked a week or so early.
Let's say the final 5 are as per the market as it stands now. When Aiden goes the higher percentage of his votes will go to Matt. Admittedly 1D won't do too badly out of this either. When Mary goes after the semi, only an idiot would suggest that a decent stack of her vote will go to 1D (the fact that they have an Irish kid in the band is irrelevent). When Rebecca goes on the Saturday night they have the same problem as the majority of her voters will want a proper adults act to win and not a kids band. I actually think Mary will be in the final with the two faves but the point remains.
It will be a rocky ride for layers as they have to put up with comparisons with The Beatles for the next two months but their final week drift will be reminiscent of the lovely Eggnog's as realisation hits that their popularity peaked a week or so early.
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the fact that they have an Irish kid in the band is irrelevent
Couldn't disagree more with that statement.
Couldn't disagree more with that statement.
Ok maybe not irrelevent but you're not gonna try and say that they will do well out of Mary's vote transference are you? She is appealing to a lot of old people and a lot of fat people from all the home countries not to mention the few of us that appreciate a crackin' singing voice. Her regional vote is just an added bonus to her backers and her vote transference is immense for the older (real singers) left over.
vote transference? this isnt the labour leadership conference ffs. who says people will transfer their vote at all? it might be that they have a favourite and wont vote for any others. also, who you vote for or like can change and depend on how they are presented as well as how they sing. their story arcs etc. that cant be predicted. its not as simplistic as saying oh she voted for rebecca so now she will vote for mary, or whatever. the chances are the boyband's vote will increase as they actually start to get good.....
As was said on another thread they werent just thrown together at boot camp, Simon put a lot of thought into the manufacture of this group Liam and Harry could both have realistically made it to judges houses and Niall is half decent, they havent showed much so far but I would be shocked if they havent topped the public votes in weeks 1 and 2. If they behave themselves and progress as an act they will go very close to winning this. Zain is there purely as asian eye candy as his voice is woeful, Simon loves multiculturalism 1Direction tick all his objective boxes.
Of course there is vote transference, Nick. If you are stupid enough to vote on this in any of the early weeks, you bound to be dumb enough to vote in the semis and final. It's not like I'm saying they won't pick up any votes but there is gonna be a strong choice between credible act and boyband. And as the credible acts (Aiden, Becca, Mary probably) go out.......
Yeah I appreciate all you have said Topper. I don't disagree with any of it but I posted this thread as what I believe to be their biggest obstacle (apart from when there is clamour to hear the other lads sing a bit).
Yeah I appreciate all you have said Topper. I don't disagree with any of it but I posted this thread as what I believe to be their biggest obstacle (apart from when there is clamour to hear the other lads sing a bit).
nick, of the 2-3million votes received in the final of the XF many must come from people who previously supported now evicted acts, and the OP makes a fair point that how that support gets redistributed is key.
i am saying its not like the labour conference where votes have to be transferred, some may vote again, some may not. others will have supported one act and wont feel the need to support another; others will shift their vote or vote for more than one. i actually think, if there is any vote transference, that matt, aidan and boyband will all get girl votes, and as they fall out that might favour the others.
i personally think the biggest danger to the boyband is f their performances dont improve and if the asian lad continues to look and sound quite so clueless
i personally think the biggest danger to the boyband is f their performances dont improve and if the asian lad continues to look and sound quite so clueless
Yes it did for eggnog baz, and it may well do for 1 Direction, Simon is aware of this and will try to overcome it, your points are very relevant though. They may well trade a lot shorter if/when voting leaks shows them to be leading, at that stage will be the time to lay. So I have them strong green for now.
yeah but eggnog was a little scroat, and the boyband are much cuter and cooler and much more fanciable, they also cover different demographics and have five different stories/arcs to exploit.
they're still a very young band
i'm with baz on this one.. their appeal gets them to a final
but they will get mullered by the older act with late momentum that catches the public imagination
the Cowell hype has started far too early and the dearth of competition in his section means he will be spouting the same old tosh for the next 9 weeks.
i'm with baz on this one.. their appeal gets them to a final
but they will get mullered by the older act with late momentum that catches the public imagination
the Cowell hype has started far too early and the dearth of competition in his section means he will be spouting the same old tosh for the next 9 weeks.
I can't understand to be honest the big push this week that has dropped their odds so much. They were very avaerage this week again surely and whilst I can see they will be popular with the young girlies I think as the competition gets stronger they will struggle for as many votes. They might only be scraping through every week at the moment, they may be getting twice the amount of votes as anyone who knows.
What I'm trying to say is (and to deliberatley not use my particular favourite in this scenario), I don't think personally thet Rebecca is quite good enough to win this but if it were out of her and the boys in the final two I'd much prefer her. I don't vote at all but if I did it would be her over them. I just think against the better singers they will come unstuck.
What I'm trying to say is (and to deliberatley not use my particular favourite in this scenario), I don't think personally thet Rebecca is quite good enough to win this but if it were out of her and the boys in the final two I'd much prefer her. I don't vote at all but if I did it would be her over them. I just think against the better singers they will come unstuck.
THE BEST DISCUSSION IN A LONG TIME!
Can't believe how short Wand Erection is at the moment and I agree totally with the sentiment that as the other acts get voted off, the better singers will pick up the "lost" votes. Wand Erection may be top in week 1,2,3 and even week 4 but they will start to lose in the percentages as the weeks go on. This happened with Joe AND with Alexandra in past years.
Matt has the truest voice in the competition at the moment and this will pull him thru as we get towards the end of the show. His percentage of the votes will grow week by week as he picks up his share of the rejected acts votes.
Can't believe how short Wand Erection is at the moment and I agree totally with the sentiment that as the other acts get voted off, the better singers will pick up the "lost" votes. Wand Erection may be top in week 1,2,3 and even week 4 but they will start to lose in the percentages as the weeks go on. This happened with Joe AND with Alexandra in past years.
Matt has the truest voice in the competition at the moment and this will pull him thru as we get towards the end of the show. His percentage of the votes will grow week by week as he picks up his share of the rejected acts votes.
John & Matt have the truest voices, not Matt.
A man singing like a girl is an aquired taste.
It's something you'll like now and vote for or don't like and will ne
ver vote for.
Rather like Lambert in AI
A man singing like a girl is an aquired taste.
It's something you'll like now and vote for or don't like and will ne
ver vote for.
Rather like Lambert in AI
I couldn't disagree more with Stableboy I'm afraid. I'd be staggered if OD had topped the voting so far. Mary Wk1 and Matt Wk2 would be my dead certs.
I see OD growing as the weeks go on and as they gel as a group.
I see OD growing as the weeks go on and as they gel as a group.
Yep, I agree. Rather like JLS I'd expect their support to grow as the compeition progresses.
Matt's support and performance level may have peaked at the audition stage like many acts in previous years.
Matt's support and performance level may have peaked at the audition stage like many acts in previous years.
I agree with what you're saying FLL but do you still think Matt will win, as per your prediction thread?
Jls would have appealed to a much wider audience than this bunch of kids
No self respecting 30 year old woman is ever going to have a crush on some spotty kid like they may have on any of the JLS lads
And i will be amazed if Aiden didnt top the votes for week 1 Othh
No self respecting 30 year old woman is ever going to have a crush on some spotty kid like they may have on any of the JLS lads
And i will be amazed if Aiden didnt top the votes for week 1 Othh
Henry, my prediction was just in betting order, not the order I think they'll finish in.
Just to clarify ...I don't think OD have and will top the first four weeks...that was just an example that IF THEY DID (and I don't think they did..or will) that they would lose in the percentages over the course of the programme as the weaker acts leave and the votes distribute to the better acts.
I agree with A1 that these BOYS are too young to appeal to the older person and only teenagers are going to vote for them.
IMO Aiden was top of week 1 followed by Mary and week 2 had Matt top of the pile by a mile followed by Mary again.
I agree with A1 that these BOYS are too young to appeal to the older person and only teenagers are going to vote for them.
IMO Aiden was top of week 1 followed by Mary and week 2 had Matt top of the pile by a mile followed by Mary again.
Henry, my prediction was just in betting order, not the order I think they'll finish in.
OK (I haven't made mine yet), it did seem like other people were putting them in finishing order.
OK (I haven't made mine yet), it did seem like other people were putting them in finishing order.
LOL Yep, I should have ranked them 1-8, but really it was just who people thought would be the final 8, rather than order, but I'll go and do it now :)
I'm not much of either aa 
, though I did fancy myself as abit of dancer after a couple newkie browns when I was younger
, though I did fancy myself as abit of dancer after a couple newkie browns when I was younger
I heard he looks like a slightly fatter Liam from BB8 so i'll sit this 1 out
I really think Matt and 1d are there for the toppling later on.I mean Matt sings with a girls voice.Will
the general public really want to be this type of confusing voice that just goes
Im in laaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaave all the time in a girls voice.
Ans wasnt the campaign against the number 1 Christmas about manufactured bands.
How manufactured is 1d?
I think 1 d and matt will not win this.
Look elsewhere and Rebeccca will get the late votes when the 2 top in the betting are against her in the final.
the general public really want to be this type of confusing voice that just goes
Im in laaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaave all the time in a girls voice.
Ans wasnt the campaign against the number 1 Christmas about manufactured bands.
How manufactured is 1d?
I think 1 d and matt will not win this.
Look elsewhere and Rebeccca will get the late votes when the 2 top in the betting are against her in the final.
Some good comments on here so I think this could be a good thread as the series goes on if people stick to the topic.
There are plenty of other threads where people can say 1D are rubbish etc!
There are plenty of other threads where people can say 1D are rubbish etc!
There is a fair chance that many older voters pick up on the '2nd favourites' - the lads - if their favourite (e.g. Mary) exits. End of the day enough of the band can sing, but their appeal is not a million miles away from Joe's last year for the older mums and grannies votes.
stu
I think if my Mum were watching them she'd think they were attrocious. She's naturally pick a singer in the Alexandra, Leona, Joe mould. I suppose this year being a Mary, Rebecca, Matt, TreyC, John perhaps.
I think if my Mum were watching them she'd think they were attrocious. She's naturally pick a singer in the Alexandra, Leona, Joe mould. I suppose this year being a Mary, Rebecca, Matt, TreyC, John perhaps.
stu Joined: 12 Jan 02
Replies: 1390 20 Oct 10 15:48
There is a fair chance that many older voters pick up on the '2nd favourites' - the lads - if their favourite (e.g. Mary) exits.
Well that is the whole point, Stu. However, if you think the majority of votes going from an excellent vocalist will go on to these 5 then you are deluded.
Replies: 1390 20 Oct 10 15:48
There is a fair chance that many older voters pick up on the '2nd favourites' - the lads - if their favourite (e.g. Mary) exits.
Well that is the whole point, Stu. However, if you think the majority of votes going from an excellent vocalist will go on to these 5 then you are deluded.
they are getting votes now, even though their performances are pretty atrocious. of all the acts they are the ones with the most room for improvement - that simply has to be a key factor. as they become more accomplished, the more the kids will fall in love with them
nick
They could be scraping through each week?
They could be scraping through each week?
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