World Cup 2014
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
His models say the probabilities of winning the WC are
Brazil 58.5%
Argentina 19.3%
Holland 13%
Germany 9.2%
The market here says differently! EIther Danny (whose offerings I generally respect) has it badly wrong or there is the betting opportunity of a lifetime!
I'm with the market; I couldn't possibly have Brazil as short as sub 6/4 which is what his probabilities infer.
Views?!
Brazil 58.5%
Argentina 19.3%
Holland 13%
Germany 9.2%
The market here says differently! EIther Danny (whose offerings I generally respect) has it badly wrong or there is the betting opportunity of a lifetime!
I'm with the market; I couldn't possibly have Brazil as short as sub 6/4 which is what his probabilities infer.
Views?!
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 17
|
By:
i think these stats are taking into account home advantage too much
they dont take into account that Neymar is injured and Thiago Silva is suspended also they clearly do not have any relation to Brazils average form and mediocre players like Fred and Hulk |
|
By:
He would suggest otherwise bardo!
|
|
By:
do you know if these models were conducted pre tournament.
if so then you can disregard them the thing that matters in models like this is current form.. this is the most reliable indicator i saw another one of these before the WC started that said it was 60 % likely that it would be a brazil V Spain final take em with a pinch of salt |
|
By:
yes
more black box models to the rescue  |
|
By:
Is this the "we did 100,000 simulations" stuff? They aren't playing 100,000 games.
He might be correct in his predictions. I would like to know how much money he has invested in his picks. |
|
By:
his model has brazil shorter than 8/11, the distilled betfair odds involving millions of pounds has it at 11/4........back to the drawing board danny whether brazil win or not
|
|
By:
depends on the model in question. was it Gisele or Kate Moss that came up with these probabilities?
I believe Money Tree uses Katie Price for his punting. |
|
By:
don't know if I'd ever trust someone called Danny either
|
|
By:
These are his current probabilities.
I'd happy lay Brazil at 11/8, 6/4 |
|
By:
|
|
By:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/google/10953379/Germany-to-meet-Argentina-in-World-Cup-final-tech-firms-predict.html
rather trust google analytics to come up with the real probs also it looks like only rider has noted that 58.5% does NOT imply (NOT infer!) 6/4!! |
|
By:
My (schoolboy!) error!
|
|
By:
Well done Danny Finkelstein, formerly of the Times
 |
|
By:
"Microsoft's artificially intelligent digital assistant Cortana has accurately predicted the outcome of every match of this year's World Cup elimination round,"
From the telegraph article. This has to be total b*llshit. |
|
By:
Sorry, I misread - it says elimination round. I initially thought they meant the whole tourney. In that case impressive enough but not too surprising given how the favs have mostly been getting through.
|
|
By:
brazil v germany game just shows how cak dannys model is!
|
|
By:
the model assumes its the brazil side of 1970
|