World Cup
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I'm laying him at 1.95 for top goalscorer and backing him to score at any time in the final at 2.38.
Any error in my thinking or is this just a ?gift
Any error in my thinking or is this just a ?gift
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Replies: 47
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ok worked it out, to score is only for 90 mins....[
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You lose if Sneijder doesn't score
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cancel that, can't think straight tonight!!!
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dont get you db, I lay him at 1.9 and Sniejder doesn't score its a 4 way tie and I will come out ahead? No?
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How would you come out ahead if he doesn't score and Sneijder doesn't score? You would lose both of your bets in that situation.
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I think I finally understand the full implications now, I knew it couldn't be that straightforward.
My head hurts though  Best result is for Villa to score in 90 mins, small profit guaranteed and if he does but Sneijder scores same number or more, even better. Not worth the efoort I reckon |
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yes Keliway i would lose but only 1/4 of the amount layed at 1.9 if I understand the dead heat rules correctly.
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as far as I can see, you've taken opposing views with those two bets and have thrown money away.
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no keliwah i'm not quite that stupid. (I hope[;)])
I have laid him at 1.9 to be top goalscorer. If I am to lose that bet he must score. If he does score (in 90 mins ) I will collect at 2.38 |
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well if he doesn't score I can lose both bets but the top goalscorer lay will be paid out on a 4 way dead heat rule if Sniejder doesn't score ...god how I wish I hadn't started this thread!!!!
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I am i missing something how can Villa be 1.82!? If he dead heats thats the price is the same as 1.2. Seems very short to me?
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Interesting one, if I've miscalculated please shoot me down, but think this is the P&L for a £100 lay of villa top scorer and £58 back of villa to score in 90 mins.
Neither score -£4 Both score +£88 Villa score, Schneider doesn't -£4 Schneider scores Villa doesn't +£42 Villa scores, Schneider scores more £180 The potential downfall is extra time goals as suggested earlier. |
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The price looks wrong to me Henry but like a few others I have so many bets linked on top goalscorer and winner/top goalscorer markets I really don't have a clue how to best capitalise on it.
I have just tried to green out to roughly the same value on Villa, Sneijder,Muller and Forlan for top g/s and Spain with all of them and Netherlands with all of them for winner/top gs  |
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The lay price I used for villa was 1.84 on top gs, and the back price 2.38.
Looks like the former has already moved a touch. |
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mental price on the outright, getting backed by mental people.
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Yeah personally wouldn't wanna be putting 3000 at 1.9 but someone does.
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here's a slightly different thought, the wrong side of a bottle of wine:
£100 dutching Villa and Schneider to score = £55 profit £50 on Forlan at 10.5 = £118 profit if neither of the above score. Probably need to chuck a couple of quid on Robben in case he gets hat-trick and minus commission it gets a bit marginal. However if both Villa and Schneider score, you're up £150 |
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Forlan bigger odds than Muller?
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10.5 v 10 strange
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if villa scores but jimmy flloys schneider gets 2 youre even more quids in. risky bet but the price on villa baffles me. my interwebs been down and i logged in expecting 2.2+
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Pheonix Joined: 15 Jul 02
Replies: 17 10 Jul 10 22:57 here's a slightly different thought, the wrong side of a bottle of wine: £100 dutching Villa and Schneider to score = £55 profit £50 on Forlan at 10.5 = £118 profit if neither of the above score. £12.50 wins @10.5 = 118 profit but you lose 37.50 due to dead heat rules so only approx £80 from that part of bet |
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I hope I dont miss the boat here, but im going to bed and try and work it out in the morning. Got to be money made here somehow.
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If it's level FIFA decides it by who has most assists. DV at moment according to BBC just there.
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I've heard this point before choice. But seemingly that works for the golden boot award whereas this is the top goalscorer.
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BF doesnt tho.
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Otherwise Forlan and Muller would already have been removed from the market.
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...and Muller has the most assists and least minutes playing time, but its irrelevant to this market.
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Yeah I agree Betfair have their own rules. Just a point of information really!
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so what price that neither scores at all? muller and forlan being backed at 10s , which gives a price of 2.5 after dead heat rules.
villa to score 90 mins is 2.4 and schneider 4.3 . but then you have extra time to factor in and related contingency of if one scores what's the price of the other scoring/not scoring |
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I can't have villa at odds on to be top scorer. Judging by the "to score" market, he has a less than 50% chance of adding to his tally.. even allowing for the possibility of extra time.
Even if he DOES score, there is a 20 - 25% chance that Sneijder will also score. There is also a slight worry that a couple of papers reported him as having an injury. Probably just paper talk, but if it WERE true, I guess Spain would want to keep that quiet until the last moment. His current price of 1.86 just seems plain wrong. |
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i think i'll just lay him a chunk, just hope he has a quiet start and i can surf the drift
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Or perhaps even hope that the newspapers that reported an injury were on to something and he doesn't even start.
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Anyone know how a winner/first goalscorer bet would be settled in the result of a dead-heat ?
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dead -heat rules apply -if 4 tie quarter odds ,if 2 half odds.
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ignore last post ,just re read question -sorry
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If you wanted to cover the possibility of Villa scoring in extra time you could back Villa to score 6 or more goals on the player to score market at 2.2 which is only slightly less than the 2.32 available on the to score market
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Smart thinking Clydebank. So is the strategy of laying Villa at odds on in the TGS market and backing him to score 6 goals or more, the way to go? Or is there a contingency I have not thought of?
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Hmm... answering my own question, I guess if he does not score, then you lose a quarter of your TGS lay if Sneijder does not score either.
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lol, this is why i ended up down the route of laying him and trading if he does not score
there are a few more options re off setting bets and using other markets to cover but non are totally foolproof, you go round the houses to make pennies i considered using the draw along with laying villa in the golden boot & backing in the to score mkt |