What price Germany if Holland win tonight? (currently 3.2)

Im guessing the final odds vs uruguay would be around 1.4 for either germany or spain which would suggest the outright price should drop to around 2.8. Maybe a little less depending on injuries and suspension.

Odds for Spain and Germany won't change at all IMO if Holland qualify tonight - they'll only drop if Uruguay qualify.

ah ok.

my logic is I'd be happy to lay germany in the outright market if they have to be spain and holland.

if uruguay progress I'd feel less confident of the lay.

Germany and spain will drift slightly,but it wont be much. I have worked out the percentages.i think their is close to an extra 7 % if urguguay win so between ger and spain they will shorten that percent.

I think:

If Uruguay go through: Spain 2.60, Germany 2.60 Uruguay 4.20
If Holland go through: Holland 2.10, Spain 3.80, Germany 3.80

Holland will go down to 2.5 - Spain and Germany will go up to 3.3-3.35. If Uru wins though, Spain and Germany will go down to 2.75ish and Uru at 3.8.

By the way. Why is Germany shortest for outright but still significant outsider vs Spain??!

Thanks for the fantastic replies - much obliged!

I'll lay Germany and they wont win.

luckyU
Replies: 6 06 Jul 10 13:44 
Holland will go down to 2.5 - Spain and Germany will go up to 3.3-3.35.

Bang on target again...

Hi Luckyu, am impressed with your prediction. However, don't you think Holland are a little bit long at 2.5 vs spain/germany? I was thinking of more like 2.3-2.4? As I think it will be more even in the final? Views?

I'm surprised to see Holland at 2.48, thought it would be nearer 2.24....

If Germany get through then Holland will shorten slightly, if Spain through then a slight drift.

Wide open though....