World Cup
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02 Jul 10
18:28
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Date Joined:
20 Jul 02
this is why the odds are so important, if a gun against my head and had to pick the winner of this match, of course i'd pick brazil, but at the odds on offer i backed holland (truly) because i was convinced the favourite option (brazil) had been signficantly over bet
ie this game, more than most, underlines you have to seek out the value if you are to survive, let alone prosper, as a punter
you must calculate your own probabilities (odds) and compare them to the publicly availale odds and then bet accordingly
ie this game, more than most, underlines you have to seek out the value if you are to survive, let alone prosper, as a punter
you must calculate your own probabilities (odds) and compare them to the publicly availale odds and then bet accordingly
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i played it safe and went for brazil to qualify @ 1.54
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so u lost
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I had Brazil at 1.2 to qualify.
& they should have been 1.01 at halftime |
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so you guys are underlining my point, you won't win even in the short-term in any kind of betting if you don't work out y9ur own probabities (oods), compare them to those on offer and only bet the positiv expectations
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imo brazil win qualify 3 out 4 matches played in exact same spirit
so taking above 1/2 is obviously good (even though it lost) |
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Let's hope Ghana can do the same, I'm on at 4.9 and am quietly confident.
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happy valley, you might get flamed a bit here, but your spot on.
create your own odds, compare, bet accordingly where your getting a better price than you expect. if in any doubt bet over 2.5 goals  |
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Brazil were utter sh1te & got what they deserved
As for being the better team, thats laughable I backed them believing the odds were fair But there were big doubts as their much vaunted defence had been in trouble v Ivory COast when Eriksson consented to send some forwards on, they looked woeful v North Korea & Portugal Versus Chile they were literally passed around the park until they managed a set piece header & then sat back on the counter attack Thing about counter attacking teams is you only know how good they are when they go a goal down, then they are unable to employ their beloved counter attack And against a half decent Dutch side Brazil wer found wanting horribly so |
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just like to say i agree with the idea of spotting value, but not with brazil were the better team, brazil were horrific as i had predicted in another thread
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fergus very kind of you to warn me i may get attacked on here for saying that but i can assure it wouldn't bother me on iota as i make a reasonable living from betting, on other sports rather than football admittedly, and those who tend to be most aggressive on her strike me as th0se who don't make very much at all
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