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Happy Valley
02 Jul 10 18:28
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Date Joined: 20 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 3,322 | Blogger: Happy Valley's blog
this is why the odds are so important, if a gun against my head and had to pick the winner of this match, of course i'd pick brazil, but at the odds on offer i backed holland (truly) because i was convinced the favourite option (brazil) had been signficantly over bet

ie this game, more than most, underlines you have to seek out the value if you are to survive, let alone prosper, as a punter

you must calculate your own probabilities (odds) and compare them to the publicly availale odds and then bet accordingly
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Report tiny dave July 2, 2010 6:31 PM BST
i played it safe and went for brazil to qualify @ 1.54 Sad
Report San Quentin July 2, 2010 6:33 PM BST
so u lost
Report Clarky9 July 2, 2010 6:33 PM BST
I had Brazil at 1.2 to qualify.

& they should have been 1.01 at halftime
Report Happy Valley July 2, 2010 6:39 PM BST
so you guys are underlining my point, you won't win even in the short-term in any kind of betting if you don't work out y9ur own probabities (oods), compare them to those on offer and only bet the positiv expectations
Report tiny dave July 2, 2010 6:42 PM BST
imo brazil win qualify 3 out 4 matches played in exact same spirit

so taking above 1/2 is obviously good (even though it lost)
Report The punter formerly known as h July 2, 2010 6:43 PM BST
Let's hope Ghana can do the same, I'm on at 4.9 and am quietly confident.
Report Fergus8 July 2, 2010 6:49 PM BST
happy valley, you might get flamed a bit here, but your spot on.

create your own odds, compare, bet accordingly where your getting a better price than you expect.

if in any doubt bet over 2.5 goalsLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report thelatarps July 2, 2010 7:06 PM BST
Brazil were utter sh1te & got what they deserved
As for being the better team, thats laughable
I backed them believing the odds were fair
But there were big doubts as their much vaunted defence had been in trouble v Ivory COast when Eriksson consented to send some forwards on, they looked woeful v North Korea & Portugal
Versus Chile they were literally passed around the park until they managed a set piece header & then sat back on the counter attack
Thing about counter attacking teams is you only know how good they are when they go a goal down, then they are unable to employ their
beloved counter attack
And against a half decent Dutch side Brazil wer found wanting
horribly so
Report Fergus8 July 2, 2010 7:08 PM BST
just like to say i agree with the idea of spotting value, but not with brazil were the better team, brazil were horrific as i had predicted in another thread
Report Happy Valley July 2, 2010 7:32 PM BST
fergus very kind of you to warn me i may get attacked on here for saying that but i can assure it wouldn't bother me on iota as i make a reasonable living from betting, on other sports rather than football admittedly, and those who tend to be most aggressive on her strike me as th0se who don't make very much at all
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