World Cup
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This is probably mt lack of knowledge on betting odds but I would just like to make sure. I think odds are lower thn what they should be for most teams...
World cup winner odds: Argentina 9/2
To qualify against germany 1.74
To qualify against spain I`m guessing
around 2.3 ish
To beat Brazil in final also aobut 2.3
1.74 times 2.3 times 2.3 = 9.2 which
is greater than 9/1
Taking into consideration they could avoid spain and brazil which is unlikly should they odds should fall maybe to 8/1?
World cup winner odds: Argentina 9/2
To qualify against germany 1.74
To qualify against spain I`m guessing
around 2.3 ish
To beat Brazil in final also aobut 2.3
1.74 times 2.3 times 2.3 = 9.2 which
is greater than 9/1
Taking into consideration they could avoid spain and brazil which is unlikly should they odds should fall maybe to 8/1?
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Replies: 11
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I don't think they would be anything like 2.3 to qualify versus Spain if they meet them in the semis. I'm not even sure Spain deserve to be favourites against Argentina now.
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you will be a millionaire laying the 9/2 and betting on them to win the matches
i wish i could make millions as easy as this |
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But do you not think argies odds are still smaller than they should be?
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Maybe not so simple e.g. Spain are only 1.2 to qualify for semis, when Paraguay do it argies would be big faves. Similarly brasil are only 1.9 to be in final and argies would be fave against others. Might need to add probabilities for all possible routes and average. I agree seems on gut instinct short
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The Arg O/R price on Betfair reflects approx 58% chance of winning QF, 54% chance of winning semi and 55% chance of winning final. Naturally if you use the worst case draw scenario for any team they will seem too short.
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Both Argentina and Germany are too low.
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huster, i did something similar for all teams and found the german price to be the most off line. For example if you were to back them to qualify agaisnt each team in their probable route, to a £100 stake and re-investing profits each time you should be £1500 up if they win, compared with £780 on a bet on the outright.
Obviously this is based on a few if's and buts but still i found germany by far the best team for anyone trying this. |
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@Handles - Good luck to you if you try it, but if you really think the price on Germany is wrong by a factor of almost 2 then you may have made a mistake, or at least an unwise assumption, unless I have misunderstood your reasoning?
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the prices are complled by majopr bookmakers using models, pricing up every possible permutation and simulating the probabilities of each outcome. so they're one steop ahead of you there is suspect. as an overview I'm now of the opinion that any angle a punter may now ever have in betting is either a) wrong or b)will have corrected it self on betfair before you can log on. too much liquidity = approaching perfect markets.
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overpet, i'm not saying that germany should be 15's as every teams odds when using this method was higher to a degree (it uses the hardest possible route for every team which of course is impossible)but they were the one team where the difference was huge and im convinced you could guarantee a return if you wanted to tie up funds til the final. Not for me but interesting.
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I have just been looking at this and I just worked out spains price to win match by match and I make it that of the four senarios without uruguay/ghana it works out at 4/1,7/2,10/3 and 3/1.At the moment they are 3/1 on the outright market.
I differed alot from huster's calculations as I get argies/spain to be each even money.Considering uruguay would be about 7/2 and ghana 5/1 to make the final i dont think theres much to be made on game by game with Spain,but other opinions welcome. |