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Big Bucks John
31 Mar 10 18:41
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Date Joined: 11 Mar 08
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According to Sunset Cristo, Spain should be 14/1 for the World Cup...

Sunset Cristo 30 Mar 16:38


Big bucks there is a big difference with France. They had home advantage. Time and again this has proved to be decisive. You only have to look at the past results.There our only 5 teams that have ever won this with out home advantage.And 1 of them hasn't qualified.Spain could win , but I make them a 14/1 chance.Imo there is a 90% chance that the winner will come from these 4 teams. Brazil,Italy, Germany or Argentina will win.



:) sign in if you think that is value...

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Replies: 103
By:
J2BLUE.
When: 31 Mar 10 18:44
I'll have some of lay! I'd lay off before they bottled it though
By:
Finbad
When: 31 Mar 10 18:44
italy LMAO, and also argies were awful in qualifying
By:
m00ny
When: 31 Mar 10 18:44
im in
By:
Big Bucks John
When: 31 Mar 10 18:45
If only real bookies were so generous...
By:
J2BLUE.
When: 31 Mar 10 19:31
Some of that*
By:
tom_peppers_evil_abandoned_son
When: 01 Apr 10 06:33
id take england/netherlands/spain/france over these 4.

90% chance- i love betfair
By:
Sunset Cristo
When: 01 Apr 10 09:04
tom pepper. Why?
By:
lucky losers
When: 05 Apr 10 11:41
Sunset any chance of giving me 14/1 on spain.
By:
PistolC
When: 06 Apr 10 10:43
Likely to meet Italy in quaters, if they get past them then that 14/1 could come down considerably, They defo have the toughest run from quaters on.

Predict the out come here

http://www.worldcupchart.com/

I have Brazil v Spain final with spain taking it,
By:
davidomagnifico
When: 06 Apr 10 11:22
what a sad man big bucks john is. and why would sunset want to lay 14/1 when he thinks that's the price? do any of you understand betting?
By:
Sunset Cristo
When: 06 Apr 10 19:41
davidomagnifico 06 Apr 11:22


what a sad man big bucks john is. and why would sunset want to lay 14/1 when he thinks that's the price? do any of you understand betting?




Apparently not. As I said earlier I will be laying at the lowest possible price i can get matched at.
By:
Big Bucks John
When: 06 Apr 10 21:48
I'm a sad man for letting people know about some good value on offer? What a mug!
By:
Sunset Cristo
When: 08 Apr 10 17:11
Big Bucks John 06 Apr 21:48


I'm a sad man for letting people know about some good value on offer? What a mug!

They are not value.You haven't proven they are value. And you are ignoring a lot of the negatives.
By:
the lay preacher
When: 09 Apr 10 07:18
spains record in the world cup is as follows.

in the last 80 years 1st = nil

2nd = nil

3rd = nil

4th = 1

maybe sunsets odds are not that far out.
By:
Sunset Cristo
When: 09 Apr 10 10:15
the lay preacher 09 Apr 07:18


spains record in the world cup is as follows.

in the last 80 years 1st = nil

2nd = nil

3rd = nil

4th = 1

maybe sunsets odds are not that far out

Seems we at least agree on one thing then.
By:
Big Bucks John
When: 09 Apr 10 15:37
Why has Spain not winning the world cup before got anything to do with their chances this year please?
By:
Big Bucks John
When: 09 Apr 10 15:39
There is no significance whatsoever, maybe if the world cup was played once a week I would understand but it is not it is every 4 years and the current Spanish national team is the best they have ever had.
By:
Sunset Cristo
When: 10 Apr 10 00:26
Big Bucks John 09 Apr 15:37


Why has Spain not winning the world cup before got anything to do with their chances this year please

Do past results mean anything to you?Past results should be used as a guide to the future.The future is not usually identical to the past , but it's the best guide we have.As for their being different players this time . You could say that about the last 80 years. Different players same results. Played 18 won nil. Never back a team to do something it has never done.
By:
Sunset Cristo
When: 10 Apr 10 00:30
Big Bucks John 09 Apr 15:39


There is no significance whatsoever, maybe if the world cup was played once a week I would understand but it is not it is every 4 years and the current Spanish national team is the best they have ever had

Probably true, but as I keep saying you could say the same about Holland in 74 and they didn't win.Spain will probably have a good run. Might get to the final, but win I don't think so.teams that start of slowly usually do well and the winner often goes unnoticed in the early stages.Teams have to pace themselves and not hit form to early like Argentina did in the last World Cup.
By:
Dark Side of the Smog
When: 11 Apr 10 13:15
Sunset Cristo 10 Apr 00:26


Big Bucks John 09 Apr 15:37


Why has Spain not winning the world cup before got anything to do with their chances this year please

Do past results mean anything to you?Past results should be used as a guide to the future.The future is not usually identical to the past , but it's the best guide we have.As for their being different players this time . You could say that about the last 80 years. Different players same results. Played 18 won nil. Never back a team to do something it has never done.


Tony McCoy has never won the National before. Must mean he's never going to.....oh, hang on......
By:
Sunset Cristo
When: 11 Apr 10 13:35
Dark Side of the Smog 11 Apr 13:15


Sunset Cristo 10 Apr 00:26


Big Bucks John 09 Apr 15:37


Why has Spain not winning the world cup before got anything to do with their chances this year please

Do past results mean anything to you?Past results should be used as a guide to the future.The future is not usually identical to the past , but it's the best guide we have.As for their being different players this time . You could say that about the last 80 years. Different players same results. Played 18 won nil. Never back a team to do something it has never done.


Tony McCoy has never won the National before. Must mean he's never going to.....oh, hang on......




No you are misrepresenting what I have said. It you had bothered to read what I have said on this and other threads you would have realized I have never said Spain can't win the World Cup. What I have been saying is that it has to be factored into the price. Big difference.Learn to read.
By:
Dark Side of the Smog
When: 11 Apr 10 13:39
I can read very well thank you. And personally I don't think Spain will win it. I think it will be Brazil. But not because of what has or hasn't happened over the last 80 years. Just because I think the Brazil side would beat the Spanish one.
By:
Big Bucks John
When: 11 Apr 10 14:39
Sunset, if you think Spain are going to get to the final then why are you saying they should be 14/1? At the end of the day past results have very little significance when your comparing past teams who are inferior to the current one and it is records from such a long time ago, this current Spanish team like I said has broke 2 records for going the most games unbeaten and winning the most games in a row, surely that is more important to factor that into their price than how they got on 80 years ago?
By:
alexmillwall
When: 12 Apr 10 12:07
france have home advantage 2010
By:
Big Bucks John
When: 12 Apr 10 12:27
How do they alex? South Africa the new France?
By:
tom_peppers_evil_abandoned_son
When: 14 Apr 10 06:28
sunset cristo



so your saying brazil/argentina/italy/germany win this thing 9/10 (90%) times. Is this a joke or are you really slow. You cannot possibly understand value if you believe this to be true- u dumbfound me.

You go by stats of 15 previous world cups- this is just history. It is COINCIDENCE that this tournament has been dominated by certain teams. Though these certain teams had their heydeys and 'glory years', with strong crops of players which gave them their success.

u cant gather strong patterns and correllation from only 15wcs (guarantee if you were looking at 1000 wcs -stats would be different

Things change with time. Brazil as usual look a decent proposition and their squad looks refreshed. Though it has to be said France and germany are past their peak. The Spain squad has strength and depth running all the way thru it/ players at their prime and with added confidence of euro cup under their belt, they remind me of the france squad 10 years ago.--justified favs with brazil

also netherlands/ england on their day will beat anyone

both imperious in their qualifying
By:
Big Bucks John
When: 14 Apr 10 13:22
totally agree tom, exactly my point.
By:
Tottenham
When: 14 Apr 10 15:38
If anyone wants to give me 14-1 for Spain I will gratefully and very happily take it, and some!!
Spain won Euro 08, so now know what it takes to win a major trophy. And I beileve Spain will win World Cup 2010. I've backed them at 4-1, and when you consider England are 5-1, that's a very good price.
By:
the lay preacher
When: 14 Apr 10 22:21
spain have under achieved in almost every tournament they have ever played in this one will be no different.
i wouldnt back them with counterfit.
add to that there best striker torres has virtually no chance of lasting
out the tournament as he is themost injury prone player on the planet.
4/1 yeravinalaff.
By:
Sunset Cristo
When: 15 Apr 10 01:13
the lay preacher 14 Apr 22:21


spain have under achieved in almost every tournament they have ever played in this one will be no different.
i wouldnt back them with counterfit.
add to that there best striker torres has virtually no chance of lasting
out the tournament as he is themost injury prone player on the planet.
4/1 yeravinalaff.

Spot on.BBJ will of course ignore this.
By:
Big Bucks John
When: 15 Apr 10 01:36
Sorry one man team Spain have no chance LMAO!

You say they haven't done much in big tournaments well the last big tournament they were in they won, what more do you want from this current team?! You 2 are right mugs.
By:
Sunset Cristo
When: 15 Apr 10 01:40
so your saying brazil/argentina/italy/germany win this thing 9/10 (90%) times. Is this a joke or are you really slow. You cannot possibly understand value if you believe this to be true- u dumbfound me.




If you had bothered to read my posts you would know that I have revised this to 85%.Why are you dumbfounded you have presented no facts, logic or anything else to refute me. All you have done is asserted your baseless opinion.
How do you price up the competition and why?


You go by stats of 15 previous world cups- this is just history.




Just history. What do you base your opinions on then. Do you you have a Crystal ball or a Tardis? In my experience history is the best guise we have to the future coupled with common sense.Fortunately common sense is not very common amongst gamblers as has been demonstrated by bbj and his ilk.




It is COINCIDENCE that this tournament has been dominated by certain teams.




So you say.Prove it? This is just your opinion backed up by nill facts.Typical.



Though these certain teams had their heydeys and 'glory years', with strong crops of players which gave them their success.




Oh so Holland, Spain and England haven't had a strong crop of players. As I keep saying you are obviously ignorant about Holland 74.You will of course ignore this.




u cant gather strong patterns and correllation from only 15wcs (guarantee if you were looking at 1000 wcs -stats would be different





You are forgetting that from those 15 World Cups there were hundreds of teams and only 4 have won when not playing at Home.



Things change with time.





Very little has changed in the last 80 years. Argentina have replaced Uruguay as the other strong South American contender. Thats about it.



Brazil as usual look a decent proposition and their squad looks refreshed. Though it has to be said France and germany are past their peak.



Will you never learn I've heard it all before.In recent years people have continually written the Germans off.In the last two World Cups it was said the Germans are only average. The Germans are past their best. May I remind you they finished runner and and third in the last two World Cups.The usual suspects. Do some research for crying out loud.
France I agree with.



The Spain squad has strength and depth running all the way thru it/ players at their prime and with added confidence of euro cup under their belt, they remind me of the france squad 10 years ago.--justified favs with brazil





Big difference France were had home advantage.Also it was 12 years ago France won the World Cup not 10.it may come as a surprise to you that Spain won the Euro Cup in 1964. Did they win the World Cup in 66 . No. it was England with home advantage . Another coincidence according to you.I'll go with the so called coincidences until they stop happening thank you very much. Worked in the last 2 World Cups. Who did you back? Did you make the last 2 World Cups pay?


also netherlands/ england on their day will beat anyone




This is true, but I think you will find that a team had to perform consistently will over a period of 4 weeks and not just the period of one day or one match. This is what England and Holland have consistently failed to do in previous World Cup under different managers and different players.It's not rocket science.




both imperious in their qualifying





Have you actually done any research that suggests that because a team qualifies well that means in has a good chance in the World? Cup or is this just another baseless assumption?
By:
Sunset Cristo
When: 15 Apr 10 01:47
Tottenham 14 Apr 15:38


If anyone wants to give me 14-1 for Spain I will gratefully and very happily take it, and some!!
Spain won Euro 08, so now know what it takes to win a major trophy.




You seem to be completely ignorant of the fact that Spain won the Euro cup in 1964. It's not hard to see why so many can't make their betting pay. They do no research and don't even know the facts. Bob hope and no hope.



And I beileve Spain will win World Cup 2010. I've backed them at 4-1, and when you consider England are 5-1, that's a very good price





Based on what? The won euro 08 so they should be favorite for the World Cup. Do you know how many teams have won the Euro Cup and gone on to win the World Cup? One and that was West Germany one of the usual suspects.



As some has already pointed out I won't need to offer 14/1 on Spain because there are enough sheep who will happily match me at a much lower price. And I have revised now my price to 10/1 Spain now.
By:
Sunset Cristo
When: 15 Apr 10 01:54
Big Bucks John 15 Apr 01:36


Sorry one man team Spain have no chance LMAO!

You say they haven't done much in big tournaments well the last big tournament they were in they won, what more do you want from this current team?! You 2 are right mugs

You are comparing apples and oranges. The euro cup and the World Cup are totally different competitions. You will of course ignore this fact. I have told you twice now what the record is of euro winners going in to the World Cup. You will of course ignore this fact. You are the mug my friend because you ignore the inconvenient facts. This is a sure way to the knackers Yard.Successful punters are able to correctly evaluate the price of of a team winning with out letting emotion or prejudice get in the way. This is why you have to look at the facts. ALL of the facts not just what has happened over The last 2 years.
By:
Big Bucks John
When: 15 Apr 10 12:49
OK The Euros are a pointless tournament, was some fun entertaining friendly matches I was watching 2 years ago then I guess.

Seeing as you base your predicitions of the winner on 80 years ago then Uruguay must be one of the most likely winners lol.

The difference between me and you is that I watch football and judge how good teams are and go on recent results from the past couple of years, whereas you look at whos won the most world cups etc and presume they are the best team this time around, very flawed outlook imo.
By:
Tottenham
When: 15 Apr 10 13:32
Well all those that don't fancy Spain to win the World Cup please keep laying them and then those of us that do fancy Spain can get a bigger price on them lifting the World Cup.

Then we will see who is in our out of pocket come when the Word Cup ends.

I also bet based on what I've seen, rather than what I'm told.

And from what I've see Spain look worthy fav's and the team to beat in South Africa.
By:
the lay preacher
When: 15 Apr 10 22:04
there is none so blind as those who will not see.
By:
morrissey
When: 16 Apr 10 05:18
if people on here seriously dont think the results of the past world cups really mean nothing.. and i have to say some of the fools on here seem to think that

ask yourself why certain countries ALWAYS perform at this stage/tournament. regardless of stars or who is playing.. the germans and italians esp in the last decade.. and dont expect this world cup to be much different and dont expect the germans or argies to be far away
By:
tom_peppers_evil_abandoned_son
When: 16 Apr 10 06:14
The players havn't got the results of yesteryear ticking in their minds when they play.
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