Winter Olympics 2010
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This is perhaps the most open event in the Alpine Skiing. The form has been indifferent from all the top guys during the season and a few outsiders are very capable on their day.
This is my personal pick for the Gold Medal:
Kjetil Jansrud - Top priced 12/1 with William Hill and the one with best value in my book.
I know he has never won a World Cup Giant Slalom race, but his form has been improving for every race and I think he will be the best in the disciplin next year.
Had a decent downhill and a good slalom in the combined by his standards, and finished 9th. 3rd and 2nd in the two last races in the World Cup and will have a good start number because of his ranking. Does make very few mistakes and should give us good value for our money. 3/1 for a Top 3 at Hill's looks tempting too.
Ligety - Weakest fav in the Alpine. You wont find a 9/2 shot elsewhere as the fav. Will be dangerous if he gets 2 good runs , and is the current leader of the Giant Slalom Cup. Not much else to say, all USA seems to rise to the occasion when it is Olympics and he definetely could win.
Hirscher - Probably the one that will win IF he skies on top. Huge capability and won 2 of the last 4 races. 2nd in one and was 4th and making a big charge in the other when he made a huge mistake.
Miller - Is it possible that the man is back to his best in ALL disciplines? Who knows, he was 2nd fastest in the Slalom run in the Super Combined and the prices on him has been shattered the last 24h. Unlikely to repeat the success here normally, but you will see plenty of backers of him regardless.
Any longshots?
David Simoncelli is 15/1 with Expekt and perhaps that price can be bettered before the race at Betfair. If this guy is "on", on the raceday, he will be right up there. I have been waiting for this guy to produce 2 really good runs the whole season, but he seems to put in one mistake per race at least, that costs him dearly. Looked superb in Kranjska Gora twice and should have finished better than 2 x 5th. Before that, he was 2nd in Alta Badia and comes to Vancouver just for this race.
As I said, this race is extremely open pre-race and Blardone, Svindal, Janka is not without a chance. Would also be foolish to count Cuche out.
Good Luck with your betting.
This is my personal pick for the Gold Medal:
Kjetil Jansrud - Top priced 12/1 with William Hill and the one with best value in my book.
I know he has never won a World Cup Giant Slalom race, but his form has been improving for every race and I think he will be the best in the disciplin next year.
Had a decent downhill and a good slalom in the combined by his standards, and finished 9th. 3rd and 2nd in the two last races in the World Cup and will have a good start number because of his ranking. Does make very few mistakes and should give us good value for our money. 3/1 for a Top 3 at Hill's looks tempting too.
Ligety - Weakest fav in the Alpine. You wont find a 9/2 shot elsewhere as the fav. Will be dangerous if he gets 2 good runs , and is the current leader of the Giant Slalom Cup. Not much else to say, all USA seems to rise to the occasion when it is Olympics and he definetely could win.
Hirscher - Probably the one that will win IF he skies on top. Huge capability and won 2 of the last 4 races. 2nd in one and was 4th and making a big charge in the other when he made a huge mistake.
Miller - Is it possible that the man is back to his best in ALL disciplines? Who knows, he was 2nd fastest in the Slalom run in the Super Combined and the prices on him has been shattered the last 24h. Unlikely to repeat the success here normally, but you will see plenty of backers of him regardless.
Any longshots?
David Simoncelli is 15/1 with Expekt and perhaps that price can be bettered before the race at Betfair. If this guy is "on", on the raceday, he will be right up there. I have been waiting for this guy to produce 2 really good runs the whole season, but he seems to put in one mistake per race at least, that costs him dearly. Looked superb in Kranjska Gora twice and should have finished better than 2 x 5th. Before that, he was 2nd in Alta Badia and comes to Vancouver just for this race.
As I said, this race is extremely open pre-race and Blardone, Svindal, Janka is not without a chance. Would also be foolish to count Cuche out.
Good Luck with your betting.
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Feb 23rd, 1st run 09.30, 2nd run 13.00 PST
You can find all event start times at www.vancouver2010.com
You can find all event start times at www.vancouver2010.com
Great analysis againa my friend. I backed Ligerty,Hircher,Jansrud&Miller for equal profit.
Anyone Interested In Laying:
Mens Giant Slalom Top 3
Massimiliano Blardone 4.8 (£10)
Kjetil Jansrud 5.5 (£10)
Mens Giant Slalom Top 3
Massimiliano Blardone 4.8 (£10)
Kjetil Jansrud 5.5 (£10)
Such a tricky race. I like Blardone's style when he's on, but I question how he'll go under pressure, and his only WC win this season was on home snow. Janka showed some kind of return to form in the Super-Combined. I see no reason not to back Hirscher myself and Miller small for a medal.
6-7 guys can win this.
Ligety will try to put in a 100% all-in run, and if he gets it right, 20/1 and over that you can get will look massive.
If you trade, this is the guy to get on. Cause since he is the first of the big ones to ski, of those with a serious chance, his price will drop massively if he takes the lead with some margin.
Svindal - amazing 2nd half of the race. Surely the fav but its so many that can win, it is anyones guess.
Ligety is just 6/10 away, that might seem a lot, but a lot of guys have won the race coming from that margin behind, putting in a superb display.
Ligety will try to put in a 100% all-in run, and if he gets it right, 20/1 and over that you can get will look massive.
If you trade, this is the guy to get on. Cause since he is the first of the big ones to ski, of those with a serious chance, his price will drop massively if he takes the lead with some margin.
Svindal - amazing 2nd half of the race. Surely the fav but its so many that can win, it is anyones guess.
Ligety is just 6/10 away, that might seem a lot, but a lot of guys have won the race coming from that margin behind, putting in a superb display.
I've already backed Hischer and I've added a small win bet on Blardone now. Janka should be more than 0.02 up - he lost so much time on the bottom section.
what happened to Miller - did he crash out, or not bother competing in this?
Considering hirscher went down first, his time is very fast, I expect him and Blardone to post a much faster 2nd run than Svindal and Janka, and therefore the winner to come from these two still. Baumann is a shock to see so fast, he will have plenty of time to think about how big a moment he is having and is a big price for me to repeat a run like that. 5th or 6th imo for Baumann.
I already took Blardone, Hirscher, Raich for win and medal. Hoping I get gold, but I'm more hoping to grab a silver and bronze
nice one...
my buddy came in 38th in run 1.
won't make me any dollar though....
my buddy came in 38th in run 1.
won't make me any dollar though....
I laid Janka for gold and Jansrud for top 3 before 2 run.....NOT HAPPY!
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