Winter Olympics 2010
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Just a few words about the most likely competitors.
Ivica Kostelic - Pre Race Fav.
A justified fav imo. Not only can he ski slalom like almost no one else, but his form in the speed events has been better and better as he gets older and he had a good performance in the normal downhill.
He was 3rd on the training today for the downhill in the SC and should get in a good position to attack in the slalom. Anything over 4,00 represents value in my book. So go get it now at Betfair if you want to get a nice price.
Silvan Zurbriggen - Stunned to see some bookies still have him at 12/1. 2nd in the downhill training today and was fastest at the last split time.
Last two slalom races in the world cup read 5th and 2nd. That is how good slalom racer he is when he is on top.
Last 11 Super Combined Events for him in the World Cup reads (With the first number the most recent)
2-3-10-DNF-1-10-4-3-5-6-2
In my book he should be 8/1 at most.
Both Miller and Svindal did not take part in todays training. Both of them will normally be on top ahead of the slalom, but despite the fact that Miller won a super combined recently, he will normally not have enough advantage over Kostelic and Zurbriggen to win.
He also skies out the most in the slalom ever I believe.
Svindal - Very rarely wins a super combined. Very often finds himself with too much to ask in the slalom to do.
Skies out as much as Bode Miller in the slalom, more than 50% of his last 10 races. Normally just not good enough in slalom to win, if either Kostelic or Zurbriggen makes a good enough downhill.
Raich - His slalom not as good as it used to be. Way down on Kostelic and Zurbriggen in todays training. Not saying he is not dangerous, but he is not the first pick.
Janka - Just too bad in the slalom and wont have any advantage at all most likely to the slalom guns. Should not have 5% chance even.
Hope this helps someone on their way to a fortune.
Good Luck
Ivica Kostelic - Pre Race Fav.
A justified fav imo. Not only can he ski slalom like almost no one else, but his form in the speed events has been better and better as he gets older and he had a good performance in the normal downhill.
He was 3rd on the training today for the downhill in the SC and should get in a good position to attack in the slalom. Anything over 4,00 represents value in my book. So go get it now at Betfair if you want to get a nice price.
Silvan Zurbriggen - Stunned to see some bookies still have him at 12/1. 2nd in the downhill training today and was fastest at the last split time.
Last two slalom races in the world cup read 5th and 2nd. That is how good slalom racer he is when he is on top.
Last 11 Super Combined Events for him in the World Cup reads (With the first number the most recent)
2-3-10-DNF-1-10-4-3-5-6-2
In my book he should be 8/1 at most.
Both Miller and Svindal did not take part in todays training. Both of them will normally be on top ahead of the slalom, but despite the fact that Miller won a super combined recently, he will normally not have enough advantage over Kostelic and Zurbriggen to win.
He also skies out the most in the slalom ever I believe.
Svindal - Very rarely wins a super combined. Very often finds himself with too much to ask in the slalom to do.
Skies out as much as Bode Miller in the slalom, more than 50% of his last 10 races. Normally just not good enough in slalom to win, if either Kostelic or Zurbriggen makes a good enough downhill.
Raich - His slalom not as good as it used to be. Way down on Kostelic and Zurbriggen in todays training. Not saying he is not dangerous, but he is not the first pick.
Janka - Just too bad in the slalom and wont have any advantage at all most likely to the slalom guns. Should not have 5% chance even.
Hope this helps someone on their way to a fortune.
Good Luck
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Replies: 78
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awesome writeup, thanks
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Interesting point - Ante Kostelic is setting the slalom course (he is Ivans father) and he is well known for setting tough slalom courses. So imo, those that have an easy slalom course will be in trouble
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Great job, i backed Kostelic,Miller&Zubriggen
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With the talk of skiiers weaker disciplines always putting me off dhill specialists and slalom specialists I always side with out and out combined skiiers who consider it their main event. I agree with Zurbriggen and I'm on at 15/1, just cannot see him out the top5. Other guys I follow are Zrncic-Dim and Baumann, though these have beeb quiet this week and may have to settle for top 10 finishes.
Svindal way too short for me, not too much between him and Miller relatively speaking in downhill, and Miller is by far the better slalom skiier and deserves his place in the market in my opinion. I'd also be a layer of Kostelic at the prices, a touch short for someone who skiis too safe for me in the World Cup, which is a hard habit to break, even if it is the Olympics and it is set up for him. |
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What time is the first run please ?
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Was just gonna do a quick write up, but well done on yours and I agree. Not many can win this, and at the prices it has to be an each way bet on Zurbriggen. Using the womens event as a guide it's going to favour the slalom skiers who can downhill a bit, and he fits into that category.
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hey guys i dont know anything about this but fancy watching it so had a little dable on zurbriggen e/w.
What is the format or this event? Just a single race? |
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yes hello2 - i believe its been changed to 1 run now
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do they have1 attempt each?
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They have 1 run of downhill, then 1 run of slalom. Times are combined, winner with the lowest
I'm on Raich and Miller, Millers skied well and this is his best gold chance imo |
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1 attempt but 2 legs .. slalom later on in a few hours
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Done Zubriggan to get a medal, and small on Kostelic. Good luck.
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Thought Defago would be further ahead there.
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i put a big bet on zurb to beat svidal.
doesnt look good now after that go by svindal |
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hello-hello
If Zurbriggen is within a second and a half of svindal in this downhill he can easily make that up on him in slalom |
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thats a really good run by zurbriggen, happy with that
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excellent from Zurbriggen - right in the mix now, surely
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Cracking run Zub.
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ahh i see so in the second event your confident he will catch him up then?
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Miller going through the gears here - go on Bode!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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nnnoooooooooo!!!!!!!!! blew it
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jacob_TA 21 Feb 11:59
Interesting point - Ante Kostelic is setting the slalom course (he is Ivans father) How can that even be allowed? |
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If Raich puts down a storming run early on in the slalom he will put the pressure on Zurbriggen and Kostelic, but it looks to be between those two now, which suits me! Svindal will do very very well to hang on, his slalom 5 years ago was half decent, but he's not been in much form of late on the short ones.
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does anyone know what time the slalom is on?
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caramba 21 Feb 19:02
jacob_TA 21 Feb 11:59 Interesting point - Ante Kostelic is setting the slalom course (he is Ivans father) How can that even be allowed? Nothing unusual really, although I've never understood why they have it like that. I know Anja Pärsons father also sets courses for the womens races. |
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fingers crossed for Zurbriggen for me now. Backed him and Miller. Miller looks out of contention, but happy with 12s ew Zub.
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what is kostelic like on the slalom?
is he a rightly fav or is there any value elsewhere? |
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whens the salalom tonight? or tommorow
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Looks good so far with Ivica and Silvan, but half of the race to go.
Who will win now? This is my short view. Kostelic - Knows the rhytm of the course his father has set by heart. A bit after Zurbriggen and will close between them, if both perform as usual. Slight fav, and in his advantage is the fact he almost never skies out. Zurbriggen - Super performance in the downhill and the best of the slalom skiers. With a psyched charge as he has done so many times in the slalom, the gold could be his. Svindal - Skies out so often in the slalom. The tricky set slalom wont suit him and it will be a chocker for me, if he can win a gold now. For that, both Kostelic and Zurbriggen and possibly Raich must make big mistakes. Miller - Wont finish the slalom. That is my prediction. And even if he does, his position is not good enough now. Raich - This season, has at best been "Good to Very Good" in slalom. No super runs by Benji. Could he come up with one now and win it? If so, needs to be absolutely spot on and hope that Kostelic and Zurbriggen slip up. Janka - Good position after the downhill. His slalom skills is just too bad. Innerhofer - This is the big price someone might fancy. Not bad in slalom, and IF he makes the run of his life and the slalom guys slip up, he could win. Unlikely? Yes, very much so. Impossible? No |
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Tonight, about 8:30 or 9.
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cheers
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Zurbriggen should be fav.
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Why is Kostellic favourite? Can someone in the know explain please
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If they were both at their very best than Kostelic would be a slightly better slalom skier than Zurbriggen. Both are consistent, and neither are bottlers, I think it's very much a toss of a coin between the two of them with just 0.3 between them. I agree that Miller will probably go all out, as he has too and will probably crash out. Innerhofer has hardly any slalom form, he can't win from there. Defago isn't useless at slalom, but is 2 seconds worse than zurbriggen and kostelic. Janka could sneak a bronze with one or two slip ups. But it really should be between those two (zurbriggen and kostelic) hopefully the former will win, and i think raich will take third.
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8:15 tonight.
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Can someone please tell me why is Slivan Zurbriggen 8/1 with boyles and only 7/4 with paddys to win the Mens Super Combined
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Excellent summary sas.
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Kostelic being backed at 2.74 on here when 15/8 freely available at most bookies.......and thats without tax!.......Win or lose, theyve already lost.
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no if they win they will in fact win.
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