Things worse than ever tonight....races closed several minutes before now...

Goodnight and ********

hi ATP

I have been involved in the following races this morning in Oz for the UA

FL3, PRX7, PRX8, FL8, DEL9 & PID2

I couldn't find any of the other races of suitable value for myself as a seeking value punter but enjoyed watching a few

each of the races I was involved in I was able to set my bets in a reasonable fashion before the jump

were any of the races you mention closed minutes early one of the above ?

well the last at PID#4 did close off before every horse was loaded .. the pattern of closing is inconsistent for sure

maybe ive been lucky with my races

PID#5 coming up and a real tricky affair .. but its 8mins out so i'll be looking to see if they close this one off before they all load also

#1A darnley ... form poor its last 2 after a good run at Bel on the muddy ... down in grade and a chance on the freshen up and work I guess
#2 last start winner here suited on the artificial surface
#3 2nd run back from a month freshen was ordinary ... they've switched jocks I see
#4 another out of former but has run some times this track and back a little in grade also
#6 2nd fave tends to get back not so much a drama here depending on the pace up front ... been racing against weaker

tricky race all round gulp ... staying out .. the #1A has my eye but sometimes they collapse over the mile+ on afreshen though the work was good ... see what happens closer to the jump .. or will they close off before a decision?

all the best tread warily here

PID#5

6-1A-4

the winner looked suited by the style of the race with the 1A stretching out keenly in front and got a few of them right off the bit as the work began into the final turn

the 1A fought gamely after working early but was claimed easily by the 6 who went on to win well this grade ..

the 4 motored home late but never in winning contention


.... the gates closed after the #5 was loaded and before the last runner #6 was fully loaded .. but no complaints from me on this race (compared to the previous)

^the ... gates ... closed after the #5 was loaded and before the last runner #6 was fully loaded

... lol .. the market closed .. after etc

PID7 and the short priced fave is going to have to lead the whole way to win reckon

its had a 42dy freshen and worked well on the track recently

I worry about those lol but cant find one to challenge it and with an inform jock up they might steal it

lay it at your peril .. but back it with some concern also

watching only

3 mins out and $16k of the $23k on the fave .. and its eased from 1.86 to 2.08 ... a traders paradise here but I punt so only watching

1 min to go and back into 1.9 ... trading is king this race I guess

market closed with 3 of the 5 horses loaded ... seeders have theirs in the black I imagine

2-1-4

the shortie on her #4 started evens in the US .. the #1 ended up 4/5 on their tote

here the #4 1.88 at the jump

had a leisurely 53.24 for the first quarter (almost 2 seconds closer than the 1A a couple of races back) with the 2nd quarter 47:47

and again the 42dy freshen finds out a leader over a mile+ in the final stages

bloused out by the #2 at any old odds lol .. an out of form turfer stepping up from 5½f to 1m70 on the all weather surface

these are not betting races for a punter ... layers got the lot here ... traders well who ever knows with those guys (market did close early here only 3 of the 5 starters fully loaded)

Thebas: What kind of idiot are you ?  This has nothing to do with quality of race in question. Markets are being poorly managed causing frustration for people that have a wish to suffer. A normal person will refrain from wasting their time here under current conditions.
EARLY SUSPENSION = EARLY EXIT FOR ME !!!!!

A normal person will refrain from wasting their time here under current conditions.


... and yet you are back



(your rudeness and inability to comprehend a current environment can only suggest its nightmare times ahead for you ATP ... best you employ your skills elsewhere imo .. the US racing might be beyond you )

  thank you .. but


the last 2 races I handicapped and looked at (I don't ever bother with other low quality ... or hurdle ... races)

PRX 8
9 runners ... .market closed with 8 runners loaded
counting ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
8 seconds between the market closing and the watching them jump on the video
there is somewhere between a 2 - 5 second delay on all broadcast videos from live till we see them
so PRX effectively had a 3 sec gap

FL8
ALL horses loaded before the market closed


... the issue for any thinking punter imo would be the INCONSISTENT closing times

yet these can only cause an issue if a punter wont pull the trigger and is waiting, waiting, waiting till the last milliseconds for all horses to load .. before betting

so one has to ask ... why are someones bets not on already

WHY are they waiting till the last microseconds () to bet ??????

Thebas: Only here to monitor things periodically buddy. Looks like nothing has changed here the last few months. Will check things out in a day or so. For some reason some days are better than others......like I said  EARLY SUSPENSION = EARLY EXIT FOR ME !!!!!

fair enough ATP .. I appreciate the chit chat over this issue

however .. it still begs the question in my mind .. and I am seeking an idea as to the thinking of other punters

how can one know the race will have an early suspension unless they have not placed their bets yet

when my bets are ON (in the timeframes I have identified & mentioned on here before) ... then why would it matter when the market closes ... the bets are on .. let's race ??

Thebas:

"WHY are they waiting till the last microseconds (Wink) to bet ??????"

Because Betfair states that races are suspended at the OFF.

FYI: Did you know that in U.S.Racing tote betting increases exponentially as post time approaches and therefore track odds can change drastically seconds before the OFF .......Also some punters would like to ensure that there horse is not acting up in gate before betting etc......Uncertainty as to suspension of race also not good for trading obviously.  That's why I haven't traded on here for months now. Notice that liquidity is definitely lower now as a result......

WOW !!!! I have just looked at the liquidity after a year not betting american horse racing and liquidity was five fold then, and like nothing now, what a transformation just as well they are doing with Paddy Power !!!!!

Because Betfair states that races are suspended at the OFF.

FYI: Did you know that in U.S.Racing tote betting increases exponentially as post time approaches and therefore track odds can change drastically seconds before the OFF .......Also some punters would like to ensure that there horse is not acting up in gate before betting etc......Uncertainty as to suspension of race also not good for trading obviously.  That's why I haven't traded on here for months now. Notice that liquidity is definitely lower now as a result......


all valid points ATP .. but imho .. still missing the point

so as this is purely discussion with no right or wrongs ... it can be open & frank

my take as an Oz based US punter

Betfair states the races are suspended at the off ... correct

BUT doesn't answer my question as to why punters wait till the off .. so I will attempt to address that one particular thorn in (almost ) everyone's side

I think the issue is with traders NOT punters ... as in my perusals of BOTS and the automated side of skimming ... there appears to be a penchant in the hard-wired software for starting the bot going in the last 2 mins of betting

nothing wrong with that ... unless

the market seeders have cottoned on to this fact of their largesse being 'skimmed' late in the piece and have attempted to address it by somehow having the markets close inconsistently .. that in essence is my first appraisal of what MIGHT be happening

in regards to the US tote betting yes (as with all totes actually) where the EARLY prices are simply on-course punting .. with the rest of the pool being swelled from the OFF COURSE tote betting (including all the yankee corps, UK corps & Ozzie corps dumping in the own pool late)

so the loose "trading dollar" is now NOT coming in .. but the liquidity for someone (like me) who is not a massive plunger or a thousand dollar bettor these days is fine ... to get set ... from essentially only the market seeders I guess (whoever they are)

so its a punters market again .. NOT a traders market .. as I have assumed that the biggest complainers about this yes are traders but only because their BOTS aren't handling the situation (and they cannot intervene effectively by manually over-riding the hard coding of the bots)

a very good (but depressing) movie regarding the late movements/manipulations of the US tote pools is ...

THE GRIFTERS

excellent performance by John Cusack ... (and the delicious Annette Bening )

[and explains why they bet 50/1 here on BF about the 25/1 chances on the US pools]


now ...

Also some punters would like to ensure that there horse is not acting up in gate before betting etc......

this is a red herring that has been offered before

if a punter (not trader) has successfully obtained VALUE about their bet (ie getting 10/1 on an assessed 5/1 chance) then that has been factored into the odds  (if a punter does not know a supposed value when taking a bet they should investigate some articles on this)

if a trader wants to "lay off" their bet on a horse playing up in the gates then (again) I ask .. who is going to let them out of their bet .. surely EVERY trader would be trying to get off the playup horse


.. thinking about betting and racing is as much a part of the 'final' button push to take the odds .. as is the form study and class assessment of the horses to be played

trading on "odds" without the above is NOT what a punter does .. and it hard to have sympathy for a trader when they do not fully understand the medium they are investing on

some punters actually think a 3/1 chance in this race is the same quality of bet as a 3/1 chance in another race .. just because they both represent a 25% probability

They wait till the off because there is no money before that, smart ass. Thebos you are really digging a hole deeper and deeper. We know you provide nothing but support of betfair and interest in betting. That's great and all but you serve nothing to help punters who are here for the same reasons you are on here, to make money.

They wait till the off because there is no money before that, smart ass.

you have shown again how much of a dill you are Razor .. as well as a rude offensive and petulant person

you say their is no money before that 

just who is it you are waiting on to put up their money ?

another TRADER

ffs

open your eyes ... YOU are the one NOT betting .. then complaining about someone else not betting

don't you see how foolish your comment is

Right but you want them to close races early and to bet early, but no one is putting money early. So you are the retard for suggesting that.

Just please stop posting, your annoying everyone

again you seem unable to grasp the situation which has changed Razor

you will not answer .. just who or what demographic .. you are WAITING ON to bet (ie provide liquidity)

here's a clue .. it is NOT a punter .. a punter who has examined the change in market behaviour & adjusted to suit is already on

so you know already that it MUST be traders who you are waiting on .. as the seeders have their markets up

so your tirade is really against people such as yourself .. traders .. who are not entering the market

you do not understand this ... so you complain ... but your complaint is actually ridiculous


I have asked if you could try 2 things ... I imagine you have done NEITHER .. in an attempt to help yourself understand the environment you are now in

firstly .. did you write a (non rude if you are capable of that) email to BF asking them to explain why the markets are not closing at the off and are currently inconsistent


secondly .. as a trader ... you are trying I guess to back a horse at 3.1 and lay it off at 3.0 (and vice versa)
with the market seeders bots creaming you as you put up a bet/lay in the opposite direction then you CANNOT imho take a bet at the current seeders price offered .. you must move your pricing away from the market to indicate to the seeders that there is "potential" liquidity possible in this race

please try and grasp that concept .. POTENTIAL LIQUIDITY

this gets the seeders bots moving and MAYBE one other trader will also see hope in the market and enter a point that suits them

as a trader SITTING ON YOUR HANDS till the market closes ..

and then complaining the market has no liquidity or closed inconsistently early is quite frankly .. silly

(if your hard coded bot wont handle all this then either start doing it manually or get your programmer to make adjustments )

if you have no idea of WHAT prices should be out (like a punter would) then maybe another market like the Forfeign Exchange is for you

Thebas...Can you explain to me what a "BOT" is ? I am a 40% PC punter that made most of the money on U.S. Horse Racing backing/laying as horses were loading in the gate. Many a races are lost/won at the gate if you know what you are looking for and combined with the monitoring of last second tote money.....I never used a BOT whatever that is ???? Since Betfair has eliminated that right to bet till the off as they state I no longer punt as you Europeans word it. I used to bet millions of dollars a year on U.S. Horse Racing. I am much better off betting through tote right now where I can get juicy rebates, no premium charges and can bet till the OFF.... GOOD LUCK

Hi JR ... a bot is an automated (robotic if you life) application run through the BF API ... where the programmer has attempted to allow the trader to buy and sell at minute advantages (ie back at 3.1/ lay at 3.0) to hopefully be green on each horse for a profit on the race without having to do any form study etc

https://apps.betfair.com/free-trials/

can I ask if you have contacted BF to ask them why the US markets are now closing inconsistently ?

I have a feeling you know why Thebas or else why would you be so strung on supporting the current sit

it really does not matter, fact is we got nice tracks like keenland coming in tomorrow im sure will be ruined by early market suspension. The game on betfair is dead, rebate shops are the future if u must bet.

im happy with the prices i get and 95% of time they match

same here exactly BSmith


razor you might be on the right track now thx to 12JH ... the totes & rebates must be your future

12JH is not sitting on his hands .. he is not complaining ... he has adjusted his betting model .. and he has moved on successfully

you & NewGuy can also do this ... pls wasting your time with negative bile with must also upset your internal peace of mind...


all the best to all .. its a tuff game horse racing .. but fun

It is the worst market mismanagement since the site opened.

Liquidity has plummeted. 

I lost count of the early suspensions and less than 2000 matched races yesterday.

Imagine the outrage if they mismanaged UK or AUS racing the same way.

taking all things into consideration its probably not mismanagement .. but specific management

why that is we have never been told or explained

punters are still getting set on the right races ... at good prices .... and well before the off

a traders nightmare though I imagine ... 12JH has offered an alternative and is doing well there

others should adjust & move on for their own peace of mind

Just need to adjust to no bets or to bets not big enough to cover lunch then hope your animal isn't a bad actor in or around the gate and go from there.

Simple says the liar/shill!

[i]NewGuy@BF
Just need to adjust to no bets or to bets not big enough to cover lunch then hope your animal isn't a bad actor in or around the gate and go from there.
[/]




hoping your animal doesn't play up in the barriers

that is what you base your betting on

sitting on your hands ... minute after minute where everyone else is punting away

just in case ...

your horse plays up .... in or around the barriers

you are a punter extraordinaire NewGuy 

all the best with it today at Mountaineer .. hang on .. that's tomorrow

now NewGuy .. trying to help you adjust here

if we cant get ALL races InPlay in the USA and certain races will have their market closed early ... so a bettor doesn't get to see if their horse plays up before betting .. the following might be an idea on how to ADJUST to the current situation

for example .. maybe the horses you bet play up 20% of the time before the race (1 in 5)

then .. if you have rated your horse a 4/1 chance (20% probability) .. then deduct a further 20% (1 in 5 chance of playing up) from your 4/1 price ... to cater for the "potential" of your horse 'playing up'

20% probability less a further 20% of messing up equals = 16% or approx. 5/1

so seek 5/1 about your 4/1 shot and you will have already "factored in" the chance of a 1 in 5 "horse playing up" situation

.. of course if you wait too long you might miss your 5/1 .. or even 4/1 .. and be stuck with 3/1 about your 4/1 chance

its a gamble either way

good fortunes NewGuy & I hope it all improves for you (you would have loved the InPly at KEE no doubt)

Not really, its obvious there is a guy live at the track, and true why not have it at more tracks.

Im sure they cleand up today at keenland as you would be in tough with the small money and quicker actions of the trader.