US Horse Racing Friday

Scott Geiners record on newcomers is 11/37 now. If you backed his newcomers blind on the tote, you'd win $2.88 for every $2 staked. I wouldn't be divulging these things if the forum was busy by the way ;)

Plus the field is absolutely terrible. The 6 ran like a donkey last time out. Okay, slightly higher grade, but so what?

thanks, i appreciate it  - i'm still learning the US stuff - getting to know the jocks, still a novice on the trainers

tbh i think the forum is a bit of a graveyard recently

Such a shame about the forum. Used to be buzzing. :(

No problem.Understanding the behaviour of different trainers is one of the biggest keys to unlocking value.

Missed the last at Penn. Looking at Charles Town now.

gotta love Travis at Charles Town

CT R1

1A at 6.8. Don't get this price at all, but I've been surprised quite a few times tonight and had terrible results.

haha. I love how they play British music there.

I know I'm overly forthright in my views sometimes and get it horribly wrong, but think the market have really got this wrong. 10 doesn't suit the distance at all IMO.

you gotta believe in what ur betting on - nervous gamblers never prosper

CT

10-1A

Damn it. Really surprised how well the 10 ran. :( Still a decent bet.

That's actually a really good point Kp. You've got to have a strong, objective approach to pricing and apply it consistently.

Right, next at Penn. Possibly my favourite track.

8 minutes to the read the card this time. No excuse for unmeticulousness this time.

PEN R4

3 at 1.85. Suspicious class drop, but probably doesn't need to be at its best to win this anyway.

3 hacks up at Penn.

I agree with the market at Charles Town. Going to move on to Evangeline Downs.

EVD R3

4 at 2.0. More like  a 1.5 shot IMO.

EVD

3-4

not sure if he'd have caught it, but the ride on the #4 left a lot to be desired

That's exactly what I was thinking too. I figured that the 3 was cutting its claiming price by a third because of its poor performance last time out and it would run like a donkey, but no. Also, I expected 4 to attempt to go wire to wire as I didn't see a lot of pace in the field. Anyway, all things considered, 2.0 was quite reasonable IMO.

Penn Race 5

2 at 6.4.
10 at 5.5.

These two should be favourites IMO.

hmmm, on closer inspection, the 1 seems better on dirt than I thought and has a good chance of winning but I stand by my bets.

PEN

2-1-10

BOOOM

wd - confidence in your decisions :)

Thanks Kp. :)

I'm tempted by the 1A at 2.9, but think it's a little short. I'll skip Charles Town and move to EVD.

EVD R4

hmmm. Could the 7 go wire to wire?

6 is easily the best horse on form, but has it deteriorated at the new barn?

I make 6 the favourite, but 7 could be value. 7 has the most pace, but is it just too much of a donkey to stay in front, assuming it gets the lead?

Class drop of the 7 after a shocker last time out is actually very dodgy.

Tried to get a small bet on the 6 at 1.5, but price disappeared.

EVD

6-1-7

Tried to get matched at 1.44 on the 6 and failed.

PEN R6

7 at 7.6. This is another one I just don't get at all. Could argue this should be favourite.

looked at the #7 - won in a higher grade than the #4, should at least be closer in the betting

Backed 7 to place at 2.1 as well.

Very disappointed with the 7. Broke very poorly, but not sure if that made a great deal of difference. Maybe I need be wary of Preciado's Philadelphia shippers at Penn? Will take note..

EVD R5

9 at 14.0.

9 wins EVD.

BOOOOM

CT

6 at 3.6

gotta be The cat for me! #1 - :)

boooom

hahahaha

I got the 2 at 4.8.

Did you see my 14.0 winner in the last at Evangeline Downs? :)

yeah, that was impressive - as you said, a corner would be turned :)

For the record.

Penn R7

2 at 4.6.

Would love the 1 to win for you Kp!

there's another cat in the race - don't want to push my luck! haha

Thanks Kp. The corner was definitely turned!

LOL KP!

Very disappointed with the 2.

not this time - but i'm having fun again, which is the point

Are you going to apply the Cat theory in the next at EVD?

2 at 2.2 for me.

it doesn't appear out of out it on form......has run in higher grade, but I think the 2 has it

Charles Town R5

2 at 2.8

Sorry. Correction.

Charles Town Race 5

4 at 2.8.

You were right. We were both right. BOOOM

:)

The Cat closed well. Your assessment was very good.

Come on 4. Trident Hero at Charles Town!

hahaha, yeah, my analysis of the form, trainer, jock..........and the name!

haha. The Cat methodology is very credible.

it keeps me entertained

Penn R8

Just back all the newcomers; 2,3 and 5 and you can barely go wrong.

Got 2 at 4.6
3 at 3.6

Hoping to get 10.0 for the 5.

It's been a good laugh. Thanks for joining me.

2 wins Charles Town. Disappointing.

some of your picks have been outstanding tonight, thanks

Thanks a lot mate. Means a lot.

I'll be amazed if the next at Penn isn't won by a newcomer.

Got the 5 at 13.0. Excellent price.

Pheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeewwww. Maybe I need to calm down with my newcomer backing. Put too much faith in that.

EVD

6 at 7.0+. Could possibly go wire to wire.

CT R6

2 at 2.2

2 to place at EVD

Think you got the place Honky. Well done if you did.

Phew!!   Thought I was a goner there!!

Thanks Rowan. I see you've mastered the US horses these days.

EVD

7-2-6-1

Well done Honky.

hahaha thanks Honkey! I've certainly sharpened up. Do you remember me from years ago?

Yeah. We had quite a conversation two or three years ago. You weren't quite on top then, but you said you *knew* you could beat this game, and were determined to do so. Given this and your stunning night a few weeks ago, I'd say you've got there!

had a fair few corkers tonight!

You can certainly eat well on a 14.0 shot or two!

Wow! You remember that conversation and my performance a few weeks ago? I'm impressed! Thanks a lot. Means a lot.

hahaha yes. I genuinely believe I've got the edge now. That night a few weeks ago was epic. Glad you saw that! Thanks for the recognition.

It impressed me how seriously you took it. Most punters are just there for a quick thrill or two, but you clearly had a bigger plan for your betting. Keep up the great work!!

Pen R9

6 is a worthy favourite, but 9 looks overpriced at 11.0+. Just wondering how well it can transfer its Charles Town form to Penn. Seems well worth a go.

Actually think there's a bit of value in the 6 at 3.2. Backed it small.

Thanks a lot Honky. That means a lot. I definitely find it very interesting and it's been a long-term battle for me to beat the market, because I always had a strong sense that it was a beatable and passion for data analysis.

It's certainly an absorbing pursuit. I love it when I find a little angle in that the US punters appear to have missed!!

Gosh. Couldn't have picked that winner. I guess he must have learnt a little something from those two 15K races.

Yes, exactly! It's really satisfying. That's what I love too.

EVD R8

3 at 8.0+

Did 3 get there at EVD? Please tell me it did!

Rough luck!  There was a horse-hair between those three!

Oh yeah, I was surprised by the Penn result too!

Oh God. 3 was actually third? Wow. Guess it was the camera angle that tricked me. Oh well. More evidence that I've got the edge!

The change of jock may have been a key to the Penn winner. Rodriguez got two good results from that horse early in his career, and this was his first time back in the horse's saddle since July 14. Could be co-incidence, but it could be he knows how to get that little more from the horse. Didn't gun him right to the lead either, in contrast to the last two jocks.

All easy with hindsight though!!

(I thought your 3 had actually got up at the end and just nailed it there at EVD!!)

Actually, that was a different jock called Rodriguez that was on the Penn winner earlier in his career!  Maybe KP should have a Rodriguez rule to go along with his Cat rule!! 

Don't think I'll be hanging around for the final few races.  Good luck if you're continuing, Rowan.

lol Honky! There does seem to be a correlation between names and ability in the horse racing world. Could be culturally influenced?

I've got to admit, I've never factored in jockey ability much. Something I perhaps need to give more consideration to. I tend to see a good jockey booking as a sign of positive intent on the trainer's part.

Thanks a lot Honky. Great to catch up.

Yeah, I'm not too bothered about the jockey either. There's enough to consider just assessing the horse!  Plus it's rather hard to analyse a jockey - I prefer to boil things down to figures that I can use, and a simple win-rate doesn't really tell me much.       The only time I'll really pay attention is when backing first-time starters. As you say, a big jockey-signing signifies trainer intent, and if a big jock is choosing a FTS, I'll take that as a good sign, assuming the other more-crucial factors are in place.

Anyway. Enough blether from me. Night.

EVD

3 at 2.6

Very interesting Honky. Glad we're on the same wavelength on that one! That reassures me.

EVD

Big bet on 11 at 9.4 now that price has drifted.