Forums

U.S. Horse Racing

Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Rowan86
12 Jun 15 17:35
Joined:
Date Joined: 13 Jan 05
| Topic/replies: 2,415 | Blogger: Rowan86's blog
I fancy a night on the US donkeys if anyone's about. Hope some of you are.
Pause Switch to Standard View US Horse Racing Friday
Show More
Loading...
Report Rowan86 June 12, 2015 11:47 PM BST
Scott Geiners record on newcomers is 11/37 now. If you backed his newcomers blind on the tote, you'd win $2.88 for every $2 staked. I wouldn't be divulging these things if the forum was busy by the way ;)
Report Rowan86 June 12, 2015 11:48 PM BST
Plus the field is absolutely terrible. The 6 ran like a donkey last time out. Okay, slightly higher grade, but so what?
Report kpskips June 12, 2015 11:49 PM BST
thanks, i appreciate it  - i'm still learning the US stuff - getting to know the jocks, still a novice on the trainers
Report kpskips June 12, 2015 11:52 PM BST
tbh i think the forum is a bit of a graveyard recently
Report Rowan86 June 12, 2015 11:56 PM BST
Such a shame about the forum. Used to be buzzing. :(

No problem.Understanding the behaviour of different trainers is one of the biggest keys to unlocking value.
Report Rowan86 June 12, 2015 11:57 PM BST
Missed the last at Penn. Looking at Charles Town now.
Report kpskips June 13, 2015 12:02 AM BST
gotta love Travis at Charles Town
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 12:02 AM BST
CT R1

1A at 6.8. Don't get this price at all, but I've been surprised quite a few times tonight and had terrible results.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 12:04 AM BST
haha. I love how they play British music there.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 12:05 AM BST
I know I'm overly forthright in my views sometimes and get it horribly wrong, but think the market have really got this wrong. 10 doesn't suit the distance at all IMO.
Report kpskips June 13, 2015 12:06 AM BST
you gotta believe in what ur betting on - nervous gamblers never prosper
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 12:09 AM BST
CT

10-1A

Damn it. Really surprised how well the 10 ran. :( Still a decent bet.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 12:12 AM BST
That's actually a really good point Kp. You've got to have a strong, objective approach to pricing and apply it consistently.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 12:14 AM BST
Right, next at Penn. Possibly my favourite track.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 12:16 AM BST
8 minutes to the read the card this time. No excuse for unmeticulousness this time.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 12:18 AM BST
PEN R4

3 at 1.85. Suspicious class drop, but probably doesn't need to be at its best to win this anyway.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 12:25 AM BST
3 hacks up at Penn.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 12:29 AM BST
I agree with the market at Charles Town. Going to move on to Evangeline Downs.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 12:31 AM BST
EVD R3

4 at 2.0. More like  a 1.5 shot IMO.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 12:37 AM BST
EVD

3-4
Report kpskips June 13, 2015 12:38 AM BST
not sure if he'd have caught it, but the ride on the #4 left a lot to be desired
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 12:41 AM BST
That's exactly what I was thinking too. I figured that the 3 was cutting its claiming price by a third because of its poor performance last time out and it would run like a donkey, but no. Also, I expected 4 to attempt to go wire to wire as I didn't see a lot of pace in the field. Anyway, all things considered, 2.0 was quite reasonable IMO.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 12:44 AM BST
Penn Race 5

2 at 6.4.
10 at 5.5.

These two should be favourites IMO.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 12:48 AM BST
hmmm, on closer inspection, the 1 seems better on dirt than I thought and has a good chance of winning but I stand by my bets.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 12:53 AM BST
PEN

2-1-10

BOOOM
Report kpskips June 13, 2015 12:53 AM BST
wd - confidence in your decisions :)
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 12:56 AM BST
Thanks Kp. :)

I'm tempted by the 1A at 2.9, but think it's a little short. I'll skip Charles Town and move to EVD.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 1:00 AM BST
EVD R4

hmmm. Could the 7 go wire to wire?

6 is easily the best horse on form, but has it deteriorated at the new barn?

I make 6 the favourite, but 7 could be value. 7 has the most pace, but is it just too much of a donkey to stay in front, assuming it gets the lead?
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 1:01 AM BST
Class drop of the 7 after a shocker last time out is actually very dodgy.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 1:02 AM BST
Tried to get a small bet on the 6 at 1.5, but price disappeared.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 1:06 AM BST
EVD

6-1-7

Tried to get matched at 1.44 on the 6 and failed.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 1:13 AM BST
PEN R6

7 at 7.6. This is another one I just don't get at all. Could argue this should be favourite.
Report kpskips June 13, 2015 1:16 AM BST
looked at the #7 - won in a higher grade than the #4, should at least be closer in the betting
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 1:18 AM BST
Backed 7 to place at 2.1 as well.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 1:20 AM BST
Very disappointed with the 7. Broke very poorly, but not sure if that made a great deal of difference. Maybe I need be wary of Preciado's Philadelphia shippers at Penn? Will take note..
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 1:28 AM BST
EVD R5

9 at 14.0.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 1:33 AM BST
9 wins EVD.

BOOOOM
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 1:34 AM BST
CT

6 at 3.6
Report kpskips June 13, 2015 1:36 AM BST
gotta be The cat for me! #1 - :)
Report kpskips June 13, 2015 1:39 AM BST
boooom Laugh
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 1:43 AM BST
hahahaha

I got the 2 at 4.8.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 1:44 AM BST
Did you see my 14.0 winner in the last at Evangeline Downs? :)
Report kpskips June 13, 2015 1:45 AM BST
yeah, that was impressive - as you said, a corner would be turned :)
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 1:46 AM BST
For the record.

Penn R7

2 at 4.6.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 1:46 AM BST
Would love the 1 to win for you Kp!
Report kpskips June 13, 2015 1:46 AM BST
there's another cat in the race - don't want to push my luck! haha
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 1:47 AM BST
Thanks Kp. The corner was definitely turned!
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 1:50 AM BST
LOL KP!

Very disappointed with the 2.
Report kpskips June 13, 2015 1:50 AM BST
not this time - but i'm having fun again, which is the point
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 1:53 AM BST
Are you going to apply the Cat theory in the next at EVD?

2 at 2.2 for me.
Report kpskips June 13, 2015 1:54 AM BST
it doesn't appear out of out it on form......has run in higher grade, but I think the 2 has it
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 1:57 AM BST
Charles Town R5

2 at 2.8
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 1:57 AM BST
Sorry. Correction.

Charles Town Race 5

4 at 2.8.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 1:59 AM BST
You were right. We were both right. BOOOM
Report kpskips June 13, 2015 1:59 AM BST
:)
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 1:59 AM BST
The Cat closed well. Your assessment was very good.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 2:00 AM BST
Come on 4. Trident Hero at Charles Town!
Report kpskips June 13, 2015 2:01 AM BST
hahaha, yeah, my analysis of the form, trainer, jock..........and the name! Tongue Out
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 2:02 AM BST
haha. The Cat methodology is very credible.
Report kpskips June 13, 2015 2:04 AM BST
it keeps me entertained
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 2:07 AM BST
Penn R8

Just back all the newcomers; 2,3 and 5 and you can barely go wrong.

Got 2 at 4.6
3 at 3.6

Hoping to get 10.0 for the 5.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 2:08 AM BST
It's been a good laugh. Thanks for joining me.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 2:10 AM BST
2 wins Charles Town. Disappointing.
Report kpskips June 13, 2015 2:12 AM BST
some of your picks have been outstanding tonight, thanks
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 2:13 AM BST
Thanks a lot mate. Means a lot.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 2:14 AM BST
I'll be amazed if the next at Penn isn't won by a newcomer.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 2:15 AM BST
Got the 5 at 13.0. Excellent price.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 2:17 AM BST
Pheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeewwww. Maybe I need to calm down with my newcomer backing. Put too much faith in that.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 2:20 AM BST
EVD

6 at 7.0+. Could possibly go wire to wire.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 2:21 AM BST
CT R6

2 at 2.2
Report HonkyJoe June 13, 2015 2:22 AM BST
2 to place at EVD
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 2:26 AM BST
Think you got the place Honky. Well done if you did.
Report HonkyJoe June 13, 2015 2:27 AM BST
Phew!!   Thought I was a goner there!! Laugh
Report HonkyJoe June 13, 2015 2:28 AM BST
Thanks Rowan. I see you've mastered the US horses these days.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 2:28 AM BST
EVD

7-2-6-1

Well done Honky.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 2:30 AM BST
hahaha thanks Honkey! I've certainly sharpened up. Do you remember me from years ago?
Report HonkyJoe June 13, 2015 2:33 AM BST
Yeah. We had quite a conversation two or three years ago. You weren't quite on top then, but you said you *knew* you could beat this game, and were determined to do so. Given this and your stunning night a few weeks ago, I'd say you've got there!
Report kpskips June 13, 2015 2:34 AM BST
had a fair few corkers tonight!
Report HonkyJoe June 13, 2015 2:35 AM BST
You can certainly eat well on a 14.0 shot or two!
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 2:36 AM BST
Wow! You remember that conversation and my performance a few weeks ago? I'm impressed! Thanks a lot. Means a lot.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 2:37 AM BST
hahaha yes. I genuinely believe I've got the edge now. That night a few weeks ago was epic. Glad you saw that! Thanks for the recognition.
Report HonkyJoe June 13, 2015 2:39 AM BST
It impressed me how seriously you took it. Most punters are just there for a quick thrill or two, but you clearly had a bigger plan for your betting. Keep up the great work!!
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 2:39 AM BST
Pen R9

6 is a worthy favourite, but 9 looks overpriced at 11.0+. Just wondering how well it can transfer its Charles Town form to Penn. Seems well worth a go.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 2:41 AM BST
Actually think there's a bit of value in the 6 at 3.2. Backed it small.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 2:42 AM BST
Thanks a lot Honky. That means a lot. I definitely find it very interesting and it's been a long-term battle for me to beat the market, because I always had a strong sense that it was a beatable and passion for data analysis.
Report HonkyJoe June 13, 2015 2:44 AM BST
It's certainly an absorbing pursuit. I love it when I find a little angle in that the US punters appear to have missed!!
Report HonkyJoe June 13, 2015 2:48 AM BST
Gosh. Couldn't have picked that winner. I guess he must have learnt a little something from those two 15K races.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 2:50 AM BST
Yes, exactly! It's really satisfying. That's what I love too.

EVD R8

3 at 8.0+
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 2:54 AM BST
Did 3 get there at EVD? Please tell me it did!
Report HonkyJoe June 13, 2015 2:55 AM BST
Rough luck!  There was a horse-hair between those three!
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 2:55 AM BST
Oh yeah, I was surprised by the Penn result too!
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 2:56 AM BST
Oh God. 3 was actually third? Wow. Guess it was the camera angle that tricked me. Oh well. More evidence that I've got the edge!
Report HonkyJoe June 13, 2015 2:57 AM BST
The change of jock may have been a key to the Penn winner. Rodriguez got two good results from that horse early in his career, and this was his first time back in the horse's saddle since July 14. Could be co-incidence, but it could be he knows how to get that little more from the horse. Didn't gun him right to the lead either, in contrast to the last two jocks.

All easy with hindsight though!!

(I thought your 3 had actually got up at the end and just nailed it there at EVD!!)
Report HonkyJoe June 13, 2015 3:03 AM BST
Actually, that was a different jock called Rodriguez that was on the Penn winner earlier in his career!  Maybe KP should have a Rodriguez rule to go along with his Cat rule!!  Laugh
Report HonkyJoe June 13, 2015 3:05 AM BST
Don't think I'll be hanging around for the final few races.  Good luck if you're continuing, Rowan.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 3:06 AM BST
lol Honky! There does seem to be a correlation between names and ability in the horse racing world. Could be culturally influenced?

I've got to admit, I've never factored in jockey ability much. Something I perhaps need to give more consideration to. I tend to see a good jockey booking as a sign of positive intent on the trainer's part.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 3:07 AM BST
Thanks a lot Honky. Great to catch up.
Report HonkyJoe June 13, 2015 3:15 AM BST
Yeah, I'm not too bothered about the jockey either. There's enough to consider just assessing the horse!  Plus it's rather hard to analyse a jockey - I prefer to boil things down to figures that I can use, and a simple win-rate doesn't really tell me much.       The only time I'll really pay attention is when backing first-time starters. As you say, a big jockey-signing signifies trainer intent, and if a big jock is choosing a FTS, I'll take that as a good sign, assuming the other more-crucial factors are in place.

Anyway. Enough blether from me. Night.
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 3:15 AM BST
EVD

3 at 2.6
Report Rowan86 June 13, 2015 3:17 AM BST
Very interesting Honky. Glad we're on the same wavelength on that one! That reassures me.

EVD

Big bet on 11 at 9.4 now that price has drifted.
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com