Friday US

with you there NMR. even that has its draw backs as any bias is quickly factored into the prices so you need to spot it very early to capitalise. plus here we are talking about 4 different tracks lol

I'm goign to sell this system on ebay!!

Boooooooooooomm at Charles

omg, all fav are going down lol

You'd be surprised Keefter. I got a massive BSP in the spring about a #2 drawn at Chester that won, and a decent SP on the dogs this afternoon about a dog in a pattern and #2 lost there

5 - 2 - 1 at Charles

Dec 8, 2012 -- 12:21AM, generall wrote:

omg, all fav are going down lol

Except the last at Penn where it doubled in price.

I@ve all but given up on the dogs tbh. The bags stuff is wiffy as hell imo. and the Open racing i'm all too often searching for non-existant value outsiders.

the favs so far this evening are pretty performing oppsite to their market moves. since they starte dto back them they've lost, the ones between 10pm and midnight where they drifted the hell out of them they won. you couldnt make it up.

8 to win at MNR.  Looks better graded

should have stated 9 to win at Mountain

8 beats 9 at Mountain

shoulda stuck by your original post Kristin

I had it backed NMR for a smaller stake than what I had on the 9.  Would have been a decent forecast

Keefter the dogs was the first sport I ever punted in when I was 14, when I'm hard up I look at draw biases halfway through each meeting then simply dutch on the outside or inside depending 95% of meetings I don't bet in. Might sound stoopid but its profitable.

NMR - there was a big bias last nite at Henlow.  Outside traps 6 lengths quicker than the inside traps

I've tried that but more using the RFC market which can be frustrating. I guess your system is price dependant?? not much point if its an outside bias and 4 5 and 6 return as a 1.35 shot i wouldnt think.

DD #7 (big bet)

laid 1 at dd, gl

7 fell out 

10 - 4- 1 at DELTA

10 won dd ul spiller

Evening all.Wife gone to bed without me.ha .In the bad books for the moment as got our daughter to do a bit of research for me.I asked her to get the results from the last 500 races @ penn .Log them into excel. It was no surprise to me that it returns a -45% on roi.Its nice to have it in black and white all the same.Mind you it cost me as i am now being accused of turning our child into a gambler.As i explained it is a business like any other to no avail .So getting the picture with no sound now.Ha.women.

You talking betfair SP or track?

laid the 8 at ct, gl

2 horse later today:

Big Easy
Fathsta

GN all

Dec 8, 2012 -- 12:46AM, NMR wrote:

You talking betfair SP or track?

I'm guessing track. US SPs seems to have some huge overround to line the bookies pockets.

Yeah Kristin did 2 456's there then got out. Only every couple of days these opportunities come up.

Only data available was bf sp enjoy.

laid 6 at penn, gl

I shoulda stopped an hour ago as I've had 4 losses in a row, I never win past 1am in the states so should really just chill rest of the evening

6 won ct

LOL theonlyway! anyone taking their punting seriously should get detailed records. I'm too lazy tbh maybe i need a computer wizzkid.

NMR i had a similar situ about an hour ago, wish i'd stopped at 10.30, gl if u carry on

what do u think guys does the 6 keep the race at c-t ??

could be dodgy RIskyBusiness. stewards and an objection! :O

Risky I was nicely up last night and was 0.3 points away from reaching my target, thought about stopping around this time but carried on, ended up -5

waiting for the headon, not that i havea  great record of calling these in the US tbh.

6 loses it. 9 your winner at CT

im on the 6 just had a look dont look good

Joined: 18 Jan 07 | Topic/replies: 3,345 | Blogger: Keefter's blog
LOL theonlyway! anyone taking their punting seriously should get detailed records. I'm too lazy tbh maybe i need a computer wizzkid.

Would not have the time to do it as work to fkn hard but my kid is preety good on the computer .Different era as they are brought up with that stuff .
and another one bites the dust @ penn.

Another shorties @ Turfway

Was tooo late!!!

Sorry slop.Ha.

that reversal was a joke at ct,6 easily the best horse

it would have been more profitable wayforward to have used BSP. You can get them on the timeform website under results. I love stats so I might spend time mining betfair prices :-p

laid the 3 at dd, gl

that was a horrible ride on the 7 at TP tbh. jockey utterly panic striken by not getting the lead, they could see the pace was far too fast and they couldnt keep up and instead of taking a sit and then asking the horse to close they rode the thing to death.

Keefter sounds like me playing the PS3 Champion Jockey video game.

hang the dj hang the dj hang the dj, hang the dj!

what won turfway, i cant call it

I have the Xbox version! its simplistic but you know what happens when you go too early in that game. i've been 20+ lengths clear and finished stone last many times haha

4 won at TP

agree book was staying on the better

4 6 at turf

7 for buttons at DD

no such thing as an easy lead at DD!!! trappy horrible track.

Last BIG bet for me tonite.  3 is different gravy at Mountain especially with the Sloppy track

Layers out to get this 3.

they want this one beat at Mnr. I'm not falling into that trap again. a sit and watch for me.

Darlo - these are the Friday nite layers.

Lads this what happens every weekend on here. I've gone in again on Seamstress

its been like this all night and they've more often than not been way off the mark, I wouldnt put anyone off the 3 if they genuinely fancy it. I cant lay it though based purely on the market after what I've witnessed tonight.

Sometimes the market just acts like lemmings. Sometimes they get it right, sometimes they don't. That one at Penn an hour ago was a spectacular failure. This could be the same looking at the price difference.

That weather really is a shocker.

Very disappointed on that run.  Didn't pick up at all.  Given  alot to do but still expected ot to pick up.  Outsider of the field wins it

1 beats 3

The winner at Mountain was racing over a route for the first time.  I feel the jockey on the 2nd thought it wouldn't stay

another low grade Mdn Claimer at CT with a SPF.

they always win didn't ya know?

put the house on it

I was tempted to steam in after all the shorties getting overturned but I don't do "law of averages"!

I ended up backing, had vowed I was done half an hour ago but we'll see.

shortie wins

There you go. Law of averages wins! I lose.

not boasting in case anyone accuses me of aftertiming, but I might leave the betting there

pin job at TP, my pin landed on 7 and 10!

I didn't even bother! watching it though.

1 hacks up

15.8 BSP

yeah he got right away from them. TP seems a bit like Lingfield to me, fairly fair track doesnt seem to favour the front runners or the closers.

Lingfield, now there's a layers track!

Though I happened to find Focail Maith couple of days ago I generally struggle there

what is it with these jockeys at DD??? they all think they can go 22 seconds a quarter and win. every race the same rookie stuff.

Lets face it US jocks are not of the same standard generally as Europeans, or at least it comes across that way.

And I was away and missed an odds on poke at penn that won

THEONLYWAYFORWARD the track SP was 3/5, BSP was 1.87. Track SP is always shorter.

people seem pretty good at accurately predicting the eventual track SP on runners. I've no idea how they achieve it tbh

Never mind that, just heard of some bad civil unrest near me so the racin has taken back seat

Belfast I take it? :(

Is it that abvious? nowehere in the world like us eh?

I like 20 miles away from the city but was driving to my GF's last night (away from the city) but about 10 riote jeeps passed me on dual carriageway with sirens so i followed them, nothing really was happeneing but apparently it has really kicked off in Belfast.

I had BBC news on in the background.... hope it all gets sorted out

I can see this going on for some time.

right back to racing for a while

backed 1 @CT

against my better judgement that my bets at this time of night usually lose

odds on shot loses, second night in a row I post this about CT, the track where favourites always win

On law of averages this one should win...so backed it

Goodnight and joy be with you all.