U.S. Horse Racing
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in case anybody is interested in this US race. too bad the big fav was withdrawn Sad but still... here some analysis
1. Street Life (12/1) DI: 3
Ran a good Peter Pan Stakes and looks to be improving. Pedigree-wise he's borderline, but can't be ruled out.
2. Unstoppable U (30/1) DI: 3
A talented horse but being asked a huge question in only his third lifetime start. His grandsire (Point Given) won this in 2001, his trainer won the race in 2002. Interesting.
3. Union Rags (6/1) DI: 2.14
Has had a disappointing season but is still likely to be backed on the basis of his 2yo campaign. In theory he's a main player but I just can't back this horse to win.
4. Atigun (30/1) DI: 2.33
Late running sort who seems to be lacking in class.
5. Dullahan (5/1) DI: 4.20
Ran a very respectable third in the Kentucky Derby. The problem is that his finishing kick in that race doesn't look that great when expressed as a number. His pedigree doesn't scream 12F either. Not for me at what are likely to be low odds.
6. Ravelo's Boy (50/1) DI: 3
No chance.
7. Five Sixteen (50/1) DI: 2
Another hopeless longshot.
8. Guyana Star Dweej (50/1) DI: 3
Needs to do a major form reversal with Street Life.
9. Paynter (8/1) DI: 2.5
Has never run a bad race, and has seen out his races fairly well so far. Deserves to be backed but this is another steep mountain to climb.
10. Optimizer (20/1) DI: 3.24
Grandsire is A.P. Indy and the trainer certainly knows how to prepare a Belmont Stakes winner. The rest of his profile doesn't look so good, though. Has been found wanting and not shown any of the late speed that suggests that he will be running on late.
11. I'll Have Another (4/5) DI: 2.11
Has been scratched
12. My Adonis (20/1) DI: 2.67
Trainer won this race last year with a longshot. This one isn't without chance either, but I would want 15/1 or more on him.
Final selections:
The heart's been taking out the Belmont Stakes 2012 after the scratching of IHA, but it's still a $1,000,000 horse race. The horses that have been competitive during this Triple Crown (Dullahan and Union Rags) have a bit less to prove than the others but they still look vulnerable. Of those others, Paynter, Street Life and My Adonis can be expected to run a good race.
However, my final selection is Unstoppable U. He is fast and unbeaten, he has run decent late numbers, and above all he ticks the three Belmont Stakes boxes: course winner, the trainer has won the Belmont Stakes before, and his grandsire won the race in 2001.
1. Unstoppable U
2. Paynter
3. Street Life
4. My Adonis
detailed form can be found here http://www.latekick.com/Articles/BS2012_comments.aspx
1. Street Life (12/1) DI: 3
Ran a good Peter Pan Stakes and looks to be improving. Pedigree-wise he's borderline, but can't be ruled out.
2. Unstoppable U (30/1) DI: 3
A talented horse but being asked a huge question in only his third lifetime start. His grandsire (Point Given) won this in 2001, his trainer won the race in 2002. Interesting.
3. Union Rags (6/1) DI: 2.14
Has had a disappointing season but is still likely to be backed on the basis of his 2yo campaign. In theory he's a main player but I just can't back this horse to win.
4. Atigun (30/1) DI: 2.33
Late running sort who seems to be lacking in class.
5. Dullahan (5/1) DI: 4.20
Ran a very respectable third in the Kentucky Derby. The problem is that his finishing kick in that race doesn't look that great when expressed as a number. His pedigree doesn't scream 12F either. Not for me at what are likely to be low odds.
6. Ravelo's Boy (50/1) DI: 3
No chance.
7. Five Sixteen (50/1) DI: 2
Another hopeless longshot.
8. Guyana Star Dweej (50/1) DI: 3
Needs to do a major form reversal with Street Life.
9. Paynter (8/1) DI: 2.5
Has never run a bad race, and has seen out his races fairly well so far. Deserves to be backed but this is another steep mountain to climb.
10. Optimizer (20/1) DI: 3.24
Grandsire is A.P. Indy and the trainer certainly knows how to prepare a Belmont Stakes winner. The rest of his profile doesn't look so good, though. Has been found wanting and not shown any of the late speed that suggests that he will be running on late.
11. I'll Have Another (4/5) DI: 2.11
Has been scratched
12. My Adonis (20/1) DI: 2.67
Trainer won this race last year with a longshot. This one isn't without chance either, but I would want 15/1 or more on him.
Final selections:
The heart's been taking out the Belmont Stakes 2012 after the scratching of IHA, but it's still a $1,000,000 horse race. The horses that have been competitive during this Triple Crown (Dullahan and Union Rags) have a bit less to prove than the others but they still look vulnerable. Of those others, Paynter, Street Life and My Adonis can be expected to run a good race.
However, my final selection is Unstoppable U. He is fast and unbeaten, he has run decent late numbers, and above all he ticks the three Belmont Stakes boxes: course winner, the trainer has won the Belmont Stakes before, and his grandsire won the race in 2001.
1. Unstoppable U
2. Paynter
3. Street Life
4. My Adonis
detailed form can be found here http://www.latekick.com/Articles/BS2012_comments.aspx
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Replies: 8
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Interesting first 4 with neither Dullahan or Union Rags!!! Can't see that happening somehow and Unstoppable U has never gone any where near this far in distance and the form of Paynter just took a thumping as Hierro got ironed out in the Woody Stephens.
The track looks to favour the inside and with only tepid fractions i would predict on the front end then any wide running closers will struggle hence i would lay Dullahan. For me i would be on Union Rags as he will like the steady pace and if he gets a good position he will be in perfect striking position and i expect to see Street Life late on the scene launching a late running rail bid. Union Rags winner and Street Life second for me but such a anti climax without the mighty I'll Have Another. For me I'll Have Another is a better horse than the latest UK superstar Camelot!!! |
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Going with ya Lava...
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Paynter a place lay for me at evens - don;t think he'll stay
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I tend to agree with you Flashy Minstrel but Shackleford finished 4th last year and he now is at his best over 7 furlongs so it isn't always pedigree based but more speed based. If Paynter goes to the front and posts 23.2 , 47.0, 1.11.2 he will fold but if he knocks off 24.2, 48.4, 113.1 then he could well stay at the front end a long time. Pace will have a large bearing on this race and if it is contested then i think the fromt runners will fold coming into the straight.
I just feel Union Rags will get a nice trip for once and Street Life with his breeding and late running rail style can hit the board. |
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Good call Lavaman
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Cheers Lava - that was a buzzzzzz!...
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Oh well fractions too slow for Street Life and Paynter ran a stonking good race but the Rags finally got a top ride from a top jockey and boom he wins!!! Hardly a surprise but the race fell as i predicted for Johnny V and Union Rags!!
That was another quality race and the US this year with Bodemeister, Union Rags and the new kid on the block Paynter have some top class 3 year olds. Just a shame no more mighty I'll Have Another as i am sure he would have won this race but we will never now know. |
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Almost great ride from Mike Smith on Paynter slowing the fractions up beautifully to get the trip but let himself down by giving the rail away. Should never have lost had he stayed there.
Not saying Union Rages wasn't the better horse but given the ride Paynter got and the way it panned out he should have won. |