U.S. Horse Racing
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19 May 12
03:41
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Date Joined:
30 Apr 12
With the prospect of an easier run on top than he had at Churchill, Bodemeister looms as a raging good thing for the Preakness. And with an army of layers queing up to take him on, he's currently showing $2.94 ... which to my way of thinking is a very good price for the best 3-y-o in the country.
Run 'em into the ground, Bode ... as we say in Australia, GO YOU GOOD THING !
Run 'em into the ground, Bode ... as we say in Australia, GO YOU GOOD THING !
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So Phil how can you be sure that Bodemeister is the best 3 year old in the US?? He got a rail trip on a very fast Churchill Downs track and still got run down and he beat trees in the Arkansas Derby prior. He also was beaten by Creative Cause at Santa Anita in a Derby prep.
After watching the stake races last night from Pimlico, the Black Eyed Susan and Pimlico Special i would state that the track is certainly not showing a speed bias. Mama Kimbo the fav in the BES threw in the towel after 7 furlongs and Endorsement who ran solid on the front end in the PS had nothing left in the stretch. Finally the Kentucky Derby winner can quite often excel in the Preakness a la Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, Big Brown etc etc so i would think again before considering Bodemeister as a certainty. Creative Cause to finish in the first 3 is nigh on a cert i believe and at odds of at least 9 - 1 previously available why back a dodgy fav when you can back for similar value for a finish in the first three?/ |
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on the ball Phil. I think it will walk home off a slower speed
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Great win that horse. Bode had much better run but IHA just too good.
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As i stated CC ran a place easily and Bodemeister didn't win!! Why back a horse who had the rail over IHA who ran further at CD and still won the Derby??
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Well done, Lavaman ... I'll just sit here and eat this big lump of humble pie and wait for my next "good thing" to come along
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No shame in being taken by what looked so eye catching!! Even the great Andy Beyer believed Bodemeister would win the Preakness. This may sound a wee bit daft but Bodemeister in my opinion went too slow tonight and negated his early speed factor and let IHA sit too close. If he had run a second faster for 4 furlongs then Gutierrez would have had to move on IHA earlier and could have compromised his finishing kick.
Just hope IHA wins the Triple Crown as he is a top top class horse and should be rated in the top 10 of world thorougbreds easily. The deep closing Dullahan awaits though in the wings of the Belmont and for the first time in his career IHA will be a favourite and that could be a poisoned chalice. I hope not though as he looks a monster!!! |
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How do you rate Union Rag's chances in the Belmont Stakes Lavaman? A smaller field looks likely which should assit his chances in getting a proper run and if it turned to a sloppy track he could be the one to cause an upset?
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Hi Swagger.
I believe I'll Have Another doesn't like the slop so if the track came up sloppy on Belmont day i |
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Hi swagger again!!
I believe I'll Have Another doesn't like the slop so if the track came up sloppy on Belmont day then i wouldn't fancy the chances of a Triple Crown winner. Union Rags clearly has ability but his speed figures have always been very low so he is still somewhat of a hype horse rather than the 'real deal' He ran on late in the Florida Derby after being trapped on the rail behind tepid fractions and then got no run in the Derby. The concern for me is that the pace won't be very fast in the Belmont and why should we think he could outrun IHA when the form doesn't show us that? Also does he really want to go 12 furlongs when he hasn't won a race at 9 furlongs let alone 12!! Dullahan could be a contender but again his late running 3rd in the Derby could majorly be due to the pace meltdown of Bodemeister and just because a horse finishes with gusto over 10 doesn't mean they will over 12 furlongs!! Dullahan i also view as a polytrack horse rather than dirt so i would have to discount his winning chances. Ar a price i may be interested in Street Life who seems to be a deep closer but if he could break a bot quicker and settle into steady fractions he could be a real play at good odds, His breeding also gives some hope of a decent run and if IHA doesn't turn up a la Big Brown (God i hope this doesn't happen) then he could be a lovely place bet. I will study the field when decs are confirmed and then post my analysis!!! |