If Betfair were to sell TVG

wished betfair would bring back californian markets

When they threw the UIEGA at online poker rooms, complete with banking violations and indictments, who benefited?

Cui bono? Follow the money to find the answer but judging by your post you're on the right track.

It's all about money. The issues with Betty entering the US market are vastly different than the poker outfits but money is the root of all evil again -  cannibalization of existing tote pools and profit sharing.

NJRC had the chaps over at Morgan Stanley do a study on cannibalization (all theoretical modelling since no credible data exists anywhere) and everyone's jaw dropped when they saw the result. They didn't have to pay a lot of money some hot shot quant over at MS to tell them that, anyone with some common sense could have told them that for free - there's only so much disposable income available to go around and everyone but the top 1pc in the US economy is getting squeezed. Most of the exchange liquidity would be money migrating from the tote pools, not new money conjured out of thin air.

Betty's UK profit sharing model is the show stopper as it's totally unacceptable to the US stakeholders . Pressure is already beginning to build-up on Betty in Australia. It looks like they are waking up and want more milk out of the cash cow. Betty will have to up the ante if they want to play, or hold on to what she's got. Then the real conundrum begins…..what happens in the UK if they offer more money to others?

Betty painted herself in a corner and it's proving a lot more costly than just hiring a lobby firm to splash some $$$$s on a few American politicians to get herself in the US market. The stakeholders in the US horse racing industry are many and powerful. If Betty wants to expand in that market, she'll have to ante up more. It's that simple. The equities markets already know this and priced it in. Just have a look at the BET share price chart.

It's not that simple.

Taking on and litigating against the most powerful entity on the planet, with virtually unlimited resources, is not something you'd want to do. Besides, the US has consistently displayed a flagrant disregard for the rule of law, whether it be in the multiple wars they are presently engaged in, ongoing clandestine operations in Pakistan and Yemen, or world trade. There's reason why the US doesn't participate in the ICC.

Some would even argue that some of the US governments domestic activities are unconstitutional, and that's abiding to their own highest law, not international treaties. I'm not even sure the WTO would consider ruling on a complaint by someone like Betfair. There are currently five still unresolved complaints by other countries against the US with the WTO since the beginning of last year.

What's more important though, I'm sure neither Corcoran or Corbett nor any other Betfair executive would want to find themselves in a situation where they are forcibly taken off a plane in handcuffs when touching down in the US, or seized and be taken to the US for trial ( similar to what happened to Carruthers and Kaplan) or have their accounts and assets frozen by the US. There are many recent documented cases where the FBI worked with authorities in the UK, Germany, Canada, Hong Kong, New Zealand, just to name a few, to seize people the US was after for trial in the US as well as seize their assets. It is frightening how much reach they have, but such is their power and influence.

It sounds like you are interested in this stuff. If you haven't already seen this, you might enjoy a read:

http://www.americangaming.org/files/aga/uploads/docs/final_online_gambling_white_paper_5-18-11.pdf