U.S. Horse Racing
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07 Sep 11
22:53
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Date Joined:
15 Jan 11
This forum is dead ffs 
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Replies: 29
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For anyone who is out there, I'm on Cinner Dave in the next
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You dont have to bet with betfair just use this forum to chat with racing fans.
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Must be a record !!
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Go on, let's see if we can make it through the night with the thread still in single figures!
(Mind you, didn't a whole day pass by last week with no thread at all!?) |
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Hi guys been having pid fun am not sure if by typing I start jinxing my bets hope your all well
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I've had a tiny bit of fun on pid and a tiny more bit of fun on ct. I'm definitely not risking jinxing my own betting, but you can have a go if you want Seag!
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Lord okay mate loads of pace on here at wood
The 6 off the pace max win |
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aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaagh the jinx strikes silence from here on in been a great night as well
Will mention a big price horse I like the look of tomorrow if you want to share any views Barney Mcgrew at Doncaster 4.10 ew |
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3rd. You've jinxed it Seag! Almost there though.
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Lord if the 4 doesnt place at worst considers myself self imposed ban from forum pid 4 horse off the pace finishing fast and late.
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Wd Seag. You don't have to go on that ban just yet! Although I have found a self-imposed ban on posting picks tends to do wonders for my win rate. It's much easier to be selective when you're not tempted to be playing almost every race.
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Pid tonight had 10/1 8/1 7/1 4/1 winners banged in a place bet on another race been spot on not touched woodbine other than that 6 horse which was gash!
Anyhow your a judge of the uk stuff any thoughts views on that donny race |
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I don't do much of the UK stuff, actually, Seag. I have been dabbling in it quite a bit over the last few days, with a decent amount of success (mostly laying). But I'm certainly no judge. If it was me I'd be more inclined to play Barnet Fair to place (around 3.2-3.3 at the moment). Should keep himself out of trouble early on, and has the needed class to hit the board here. I'd be slightly worried that there doesn't look to be a huge amount of pace. (Admittedly my analysis of pace on the UK tracks isn't as strongly developed as it is on the US stuff.) From that point of view, I Have a Dream might be a solid place bet at 6.0+.
What is it that attracts you to Barney McGrew, just out of interest? He's nicely weighted, but his speed figures are fairly close to the bottom, and his recent form hasn't been that great. Is there some interesting angle that I'm missing. (Seems likely on the UK stuff!) |
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I might put a small amount on Roger Sez in the 1.25 at Donny tomorrow. Think there should be a very strong pace and he could gun them down fairly late on, and around 2.5 for a place seems decent value to me. As I say though, I'm still trying to find my feet with the UK stuff.
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Can't see past this fave at CT. 1.8 is a bit skinny, but it's got the best times, strong off-track form and the pace should set up fairly nicely - although not as nicely as it did before the two scratches. Should get the job done though. Probably wouldn't be for me but..
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I'll have a small punt on this fave at evens. The 8 is quite interesting from a place point of view, but I'm going with the fave.
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cheers Lord excellent analysis puts my half written drivel to shame.
Barney Mcgrew has always been a horse that I have had my eye on a strong travelling sort that runs most of its best races at Doncaster. Has a decent draw tomorrow has been up against it recently, has met a fair amount of trouble in some of its races so have put a line through a few of these performances. Owned by Andrew Tinkler he usually likes to have a punt at the odds of 25/1 can see this being a small gamble quirky yes well weighted most definately 13lbs lower than winning a grade 1 race last year. He travels sweetly and looking back a couple of years he was racing against horses that would destroy most if not all of this field. Happy to play at 25/1 if he cannot show any sparkle today then will admit defeat. Excellent write ups Lord on US and English thanks for getting back to me |
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That's why I always look for place bets! I can never make win bets play... The fave just beaten into second. And annoyingly, the 8 placed third, so had I taken the 3.1+ place bet on that horse, I could have had a good profit there!
Well, as ever, posting on the forum has made me take a bet I wouldn't usually play, and has produced my first losing bet on the US horses since Friday! Great! And since I'm talking to myself anyway, I'm not going to post up any more losing bets for tonight.. Nighty night |
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Lord like your angle I do the place as the added insurance in the US you can find some decent prices if you study
Gd luck tomorrow |
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Ah.. You are still there Seag!
I'd definitely take my English analysis with a lorry-load of salt. As I say, I haven't really played many UK races over the last year up to this week, so my opinions aren't worth a great deal. And now that even my US bet has let me down, we can expect those horses to fare very badly at Donny! |
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Indeed you can Seag. I liked the fave, but obviously the price (around 1.18) was too low for a place. I did take a 1.31 earlier in the evening, but I knew that particular horse was nailed on to hit the top three. And I think it is just possible to make a profit with 1.3+ shots - as long as they're very very good. Below 1.2 and I think you're treading on extremely thin ice.
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Yes Lord had to settle my two year old down night mares. He must be starting early, as I still recall punting nightmares from years in fact I celebrated the biggest nightmare in july 10th anniversary of Nashaab getting chucked out a donny.
Stewards were total ar3eholes that day |
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I would generally have passed over that race on value grounds, but the fact I was talking about it on the forum meant I felt obliged to put on a bet - and the win at 2.0 was the only thing that made any sense. I think we needed those late scratches to stay in. Another couple of pace horses would have made the winner work harder earlier on, and that would have made him a sitting duck in the final 2 furlongs.
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Ha ha. Hope this Saturday's a more profitable date then!
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Lord never have bet a horse knowingly below 1.3 in fact usually 1.4 for me is the lowest I want to punt and usually wont play the 7 horse races or downsize my bets a little in the place market.
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Agree Lord whats gd about the US racing is most of the time the speed figs are reliable as is the run style of horses.
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Right mate off to bed me you have my private email addy if you ever want to discuss other angles as there always could be people reading stuff.
Cant divulge too many loss making secrets to the layers or my odds will get shorter and my losses more |
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Yeah, the tracks are nice and consistent, and the distances are fairly short, all of which make for some excellent speed figs - just as long as you don't take them at face value. And you've got accurate sectional times to help you get clued into the pace of a race. US Racing smacks the UK stuff into a cocked hat as far as I'm concerned. You do have to put up with some fairly short prices though. I guess the vague nature of the UK fare means everybody knows that bit less, and that tends to make for some juicier prices.
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Indeed, have to be careful not to give away clear angles on this forum!
Night. I'll cheer on Barney tomorrow! |