I'm backing BLAME in the BC Classic, here's why:

I think BLAME at 7/1 in the Classic is stunning value and Zenyatta at 2/1 is very poor value in the Classic. First Zenyatta:

ZENYATTA: The one, and just about the only positive, for her is that her connections chose the path of least resistance to the Classic and as a result has been kept fresh by not traveling away from the West Coast all year and avoiding running against males even in the West Coast. Shirreffs understandably wanted no part of Rail Trip the earlier part of the year but avoiding Richards Kid & Awesome Gem later totally revealed their plan of keeping her fresh and protecting her winning streak. I mean it's pretty hard to explain why the great Zenyatta would opt to run in the Lady Secret as opposed to taking on males in the Goodwood for triple the purse money THE SAME DAY at THE SAME VENUE.  The fact that both Awesome Again & Richards Kid would be also runs against the best older runners in the East further degrades their approach.

Bottom line, SHE BEAT NOTHING all year. She did not face a single Grade 1 winner all year, ZERO, not one, ( she'll be facing 5 of them today all male) and essentially beat a bunch of very mediocre fillies over and over again. Switch was probably the best of the lot she faced, but she is only an unaccomplished 3 year old that got soundly beaten yesterday in the F&M Sprint by a professional but nothing special Dubai Majesty. She also beat Rinterval who ended up with two well out of the money finishes in her next two starts and St Trinians, a crooked UK runner reformed by ubber surgeon Mitchell in California, but she too got trounced out of the money against males in the Hollywood Gold Cup right after her narrow loss to Zenyatta. The only time in her entire career she beat anything of note was in last years BC Classic but even that win needs to be looked at with suspicion in my opinion. She was racing on her favorite surface, got a dream run on the inside around the final turn (good luck with that today Mike Smith) and beat Gio Ponti into second who's best at a mile on turf, the worse bunch of 3 year olds we've seen in years and a couple of euros who didn't lift a hoof.

And now the worse of it that a lot of punters overlook. She trained very badly in her last two works. The Oct 22 work, 7f in 1:27.1 was pedestrian and Sherriffs was very unhappy about it despite putting on a brave face for the cameras. They followed that up with a work that was equally bad on the Oct 30, working with the same company again, and Mike Smith had to go to a hand ride nearing the line to try to get by her workmate in the latter part of the work, and guess what, she never did go by at the line or pulling up despite the boy on the workmate literally standing up on the stirrups. And who is the workmate? El Vino. And who is El Vino? A 4 year old, soon to be 5, maiden.  Not exactly the kind of energy I want to see coming into the Breeders Cup Classic.

Could she win? Yeah, I suppose may be her freshness will show or a champions desire to just get it done, but anyone taking 2/1 here is buying the hype and not her true chances of winning.


BLAME: Stall declared the horse was special right from the start and for anyone who knows Al you'd know he is not the kind of trainer who immediately declares his horse "the best ever" as soon as they break their maiden a la Buffert or Pletcher. Blame got limited starts early in his career because they were protecting a minor injury to his left hind frog. Patience is a virtue for Stall and the runner didn't really begin to assert himself until late in his three year old season. At four, he announced himself to the racing world as the best older runner in the US by running down Quality Road in the Whitney in a very fast time. He followed it up with a sound loss to a loose on the lead over one turn Haynesfield but there were medicating circumstances. Blame had to have his last work out pushed out by a day due to bad weather and his travel plans from Kentucky to New York got messed up which delayed his arrival at  Belmont by two days......and he didn't travel well, reportedly losing a lot of weight in the process. He doesn't have to travel far now, has put his weight back on and his working gangbusters. He's been full of energy in the morning  literally toying with his workmate. And who's his workmate? The improving three year old, Apart was run a monster race yesterday winning the G3 Ack Ack, his third straight stake win. Nice frame of reference in my opinion.

Bottom line, you get a runner poised to run a new top, a runner who loves CD's and a runner who drew ideally considering how this race could unfold and you get the best jockey in the country on top. And his price is inflated because of all the hype about Zenyatta and his loss to Haynesfield. I'm a big backer this is where the value is.

OTHER CONTENDERS: Quality Road: the draw didn't do this horse any favours with all the other speed on his outside and the rail yesterday was NOT the place to be. Also, will struggle to stay 1 1/4 miles but admittedly he's gotten a lot better in settling and stretching out with age. Has had his preferred timing between his last start and this one and has been training well. Not for me but other may decide to take a chance. Lookin At Lucky: the best three year old in the country this year with the Haskell being his best run this year but the knock for me again is...who did he beat? Drawing the far outside didn't do him any favours either. Not for me but other may like him as an improving three year old. Paddy O'Prado: surprising decision by his connections to run in here given his best efforts came over the lawn but winning on dirt is everything for American breeders so they are taking a chance. May be a nice one to throw in the exotics.

THE REST: all pretenders IMO


Good Luck whichever way you decide to play it, we'll know around 6:48 ED today.