U.S. Horse Racing
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Hi,
I don;t want to step on anyone's toes - if someone was supposed to start tonight's live racing thread.
Just had to say,if the Americans could jump on this machine - the PMU in America is totally dead.
Managed to gamble on PHA1 - 7 PARK RULES
1MTP - Park Rules shows 1/5 - the win dividend was $2.60 = 3/10f
On Betfair, I averaged 3/5f - double price at the end on track.
If Betfair manage to open up the market - some tracks will die as they will not be able to compete with this value and the bigger tracks will have to drop their rip-off takeouts on big days to survive.
I thought America was the land of free enterprise & ultra competition - or is that only for American firms to make billions in the global industry !
I don;t want to step on anyone's toes - if someone was supposed to start tonight's live racing thread.
Just had to say,if the Americans could jump on this machine - the PMU in America is totally dead.
Managed to gamble on PHA1 - 7 PARK RULES
1MTP - Park Rules shows 1/5 - the win dividend was $2.60 = 3/10f
On Betfair, I averaged 3/5f - double price at the end on track.
If Betfair manage to open up the market - some tracks will die as they will not be able to compete with this value and the bigger tracks will have to drop their rip-off takeouts on big days to survive.
I thought America was the land of free enterprise & ultra competition - or is that only for American firms to make billions in the global industry !
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Replies: 338
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Del 1
4 big bet |
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Here we go again with another misguided post about more "value" on BF as compared to t0te.
And if you happen to want to lay the runner, doreen, wouldn't you have to offer better than t0te prices to get matched?...(think of it as those who took the other side of your 3/5 back trade, the losing side of the trade....only in the long run you'll find yourself both on the winning AND LOSING side of trades). Where's the value then, or is laying runners not part of your game plan???? |
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Evening Canadian
Hope all is well with your son and good lady best of luck tonight |
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terrible wager at Del
I shall retire until later |
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Evening jas, both mother and baby are doing great. Thank for remembering. Best of luck tonight. I'll be in and out most of the evening myself.
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Hi, the canadian - no I only bet on win only in American races.
Been following the Yankee horses for a bit after living in DFW and I used to go to Lone Star Park and enjoy the days racing. Since back in UK, I have broken down the race grades and find that my system returns: - Allowances - 51% win sr AOC's - 57% win sr Claimers - 47% win sr Maiden Special Weights - 48% win sr Stakes races - 53% win sr Turf Stakes races - 61% - but the sample size is small compared to Claimers across America Starter Allowances - 67% - again a very small sample size even compared to Turf Stakes races. Been testing out for the past 6 months and tweaking it and have paper traded the system since 30th April on 1,688 races The average strike rate for my system has been WIN - 44.6% PLACE - 64.8% SHOW - 75.5% So, I only concentrate on the grades that are above average on the strike rate. So what research have you got to prove your statment about "another misguided post about more "value" on BF as compared to t0te" Best regards |
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hi folks.. winner at fingerlake 18:37 please?
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dorren, with a strike rate like yours you may want to open up some Swiss bank accounts to "hide" some of the profits. On the other hand, I'm sure you already have them as well as some gold bullion holdings in a safety deposit box somewhere.
Your post totally convinced me, but to be honest, everything after the first line "Hi, the canadian - no I only bet on win only in American races." was unnecessary. BTW, I've yet to meet anyone on these forums who hasn't claimed that they 1) do this for a living 2) have a great strike rate and 3) are in great profit. For the life of me, I'm still trying to figure out who these "silent" losers are on here who are supporting these great strike rate pros like you by taking the other side of the trade. I'll keep searching....... |
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There you go mate - I quite happy where my Betfair bank balance is at the moment.
As Gary Player says - the harder you work - the luckier you get ! BETS WINS % PLACE % SHOW % A 100 51 51% 70 70% 76 76% A TURF 62 24 39% 35 56% 47 76% AOC 28 16 57% 23 82% 23 82% AOC TURF24 9 38% 15 63% 17 71% C 567 268 47% 387 68% 440 78% C TURF 113 46 41% 65 58% 74 65% GROUP 12 6 50% 8 67% 8 67% MC 336 144 43% 211 63% 252 75% MC TURF 72 23 32% 43 60% 53 74% MSW 225 108 48% 149 66% 176 78% MSW TURF71 21 30% 40 56% 53 75% N 38 20 53% 28 74% 23 61% N T 18 11 61% 12 67% 14 78% ST.A 6 4 67% 4 67% 5 83% Go figure mate ! |
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good luck Doreen
... look forward to all your posts! |
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I don't post very often and I've no axe to grind with anyone and appreciate any selections that are put up. I would welcome Doreen as a poster and he/she did state at the beginning of the thread he didn't want to tread on any ones toes and didn't I believe say anything that controversial . Does it really matter what people state on any forum as it is just that an expression of opinion and thankfully most are different !
Hope it's taken in the right context as I also respect your posts Canadian ! |
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evening
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Betfair Live Chat Joined: 07 Jun 00
Replies: 34 13 Jul 10 18:52 1. Are there any plans to offer TVG to customers? 2. Why are the withdrawals from US racing markets managed so poorly? Often they are not withdrawn form the markets until after the race despite being non-runner for a considerable time before the race. Other times they are done at the last minute, there is just no constancy. 1) We can’t easily make the TVG channel available via streaming due to licensing restrictions. However, we have been using some TVG audio content via Timeform Radio and will look to increase this when UK evening racing finishes later this year. 2) We don’t agree that the markets are managed poorly. That said, we are always looking to make improvements where we can and we hope that you will notice some improved performance in this area in the coming months. What!!! with ref. to answer #2 ,are they looking at Betfair? im confused |
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noreen, if I had a shade of doubt before it's all been erased with you second post.
But to be honest, unless I see a win strike rate in the 70% plus range, I would still stay in the testing phase of your "system". Putting money on the line with those strike rates is simply suicide in my opinion. Best of luck though, you never know, with a little but of twigging you may get there. |
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evening all - the entertainment has started early tonight!!! gl to all
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starting with a lay of the #7 @ fingers
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3-6-5 fl anyone backing baker's shorties at the mo is gettin burnt
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noreen, r u serious! ur stats may be correct 5 mins after the start of the race because thats how long the tote takes to update, but before the race surely the stats are wrong
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shame i wasn't here earlier to lay 'fast approach' in the 2nd @ fingers!
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No the stats are based on results - on a system that I use !
So, if you know that your research and hard graft makes your system give you a 57% win strike rate on Allowance Optional Dirt Claimers - then it makes sense to concentrate on those races & study the DRF rather than study say Allowance Optional Turf Claimers and waste your valuable time, as there's loads of races every night in America. So if you can chuck out duff races that across the board are difficult to handicap and you concentrate on races that across the board give you an avergae higher win strike rate - isn't it just pure mathematics that you will probably hit more winners. As I say, I have been using this system for a bit and Betfair does offer value especially if you can get 3/5f on a 3/10f - which the Philly Tote declared after the race ! So, all I am doing is buring the midnight oil - patiently waiting and let the stats out iron out any freak results. It is not rocket science and there's no magic bullet. It's all hardwork and if you believe in yourself and understand Yankee racing - like I really like 6furlong, 3yo+f&M allowances and claimers - then if you play your sternghts and stay away from low strike rate races - the surely doesn't maths say - you will improve your win strike rate. Or am I being a bit stupid and 1,668 races have been lying to me from my paper trial. |
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Muss 2020
e/w Kristen Jane |
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look forward to ur winners doreen, b4 the race obviously [;)]
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MUSSELBURGH
8:20 1 Oondiri 2 Kristen Jane |
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norren, back of the napkin calculation but your 1,668 sample size in your trial gives you about a 2.5% margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
I don't know what you are waiting for, go get'em girl. |
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Or, about 3.4% margin of error at the 99% confidence level, if that makes you feel better.
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FL
trying #2. Royally Fortunate @5/1 or 6.0 |
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ne1 had there questions answered in the Q=A yet ?
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Evening all, the 5 and the 6 flag up for me at FL, going to go with the 6. GL
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when is race 1669 please?
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3 for me at PHA
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1-6-4 FL :(
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is it a night with no presenters on attheraces?
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Looks that way . probably be better
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2 for me PM
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PM
trying #4. Optimistic Sreva , :/ thought it was going to be a lot shorter |
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hello guys
#6 @ PM will win by half track. GL |
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anyone know the philly result please
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12 wins at Ph
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