what is the point?

pretend to back it and then lay it at the shorter price

when it is off time in americian racing,the betfair suspend is very slow (in fact its so slow its suspending at atr time(15 to 20 seconds late)the big firms(you know who i mean(magic three)have what you call sleepers who are laying or backing the quick results.in other words the joe soap punter has no chance.
sleepers=funded accounts by the big three for employees of their own firms to  hoover up on the quick results
results

So in those quarter horse 300/400 yard races the race is actually over by the time betfair suspend the market?

PMSL  @  Albert

sky tv  feed is 5 seconds earlier in ireland than main land europe due to its geographical position on this earth.

It's not 15-20 seconds. No way. It's 7 absolute max. Probably 2-3 seconds.

But one good point is by brassneck, when you try to back something the price disappears. When you try to lay it it disappears and seems to want keeping pushing/pulling the price....I find this quite odd. I noticed this behaviour on a wide range of markets but it stopped about 2 years ago, it happened on low liquidity/medium liqudity markets.... it now only happens afaik on US horse racing markets.

The only explanation for a bot doing it with 100% accuracy is somebody having a certain level of access to the system that means they have such latency/refresh that their software can see bets coming in the queue (even non IR where the time from click to match is measured in milliseconds), cancel their existing bet before it's matched and back/lay higher/lower. If that is the case it means the whole Betfair model is compromised which sounds stupid...and ordinarily if it happened I would suggest it's just a bot with a random timer that does it but for the bot to do it with 100% accuracy would be impossible.

When I do see this behaviour it seems to do it to me with 100% accuracy, I'll still say it's a random timer as it's a small sample for me anyway as I only ever back very close to the off except on the rare occasion I look for a trade....but I'm going to keep a closer eye when the World Cup is over.

This issue has come up before and the issue boiled down to the bot doing the cancel thing with 100% accuracy. It obviously cannot detect with 100% accuracy the intervals at which bets come in or the price people will try to get and if it is people should be extremely worried.

If that is the case it means the whole Betfair model is compromised which sounds stupid...


Not as stupid as you think.

And oh, before I lose the thought......RANDOM TIMER MY ARSE.



HFT is taking place and is now common knowledge on the equities markets. What is happening on BF is not too different. Research it.

Have a read and start connecting the dots.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/24/business/24trading.html?_r=1


BF enables "them" because they provide liquidity. BF doesn't care that you and I get scalped, all they care about is their commission.

if a guy is serious about winning the first thing he would have to do is set up home in the canary islands for clear skies.then he would have to point his satellite dish at the international space station on the correct frequency to pick up the sports satellites in space.this would cut out the delays and would be the fastest feed on the planet.

You missed the whole point. The speed of your satellite feed has nothing to do with it. The speed which you are able to trade on the market is the key to everything.

For those too lazy to read the NY Times story, or for those who read it but don't understand it, let me make it simple:

THEY have the ability to "see" your trades. If they think you are on the wrong side of the market, THEY step in front of your trade before it hits some other schmuck's trade while he sits there hoping to be matched. If THEY think you are on the right side of the market, they cancel what you thought were available money on the market, or move the money at a different price level out of reach of your executed trade leaving you there feeling like a schmuck. All done in milliseconds.

If this is still too hard to understand, let me clarify, YOU and I trading at turtle speed are the schmucks, those trading in milliseconds are the market markets that end up with the schmucks' money. I hope this helps.

Not all is lost. I will be posting in the near future how to beat these b@stards at their own game. Stay tuned.

and if you leave it unmatched till the off(as you think but is really delayed) they will match if you are going to lose but cancel if there is a chance of you winning.leaving you thinking you got on before the off.

now you're talking

Bottom line here is take it or leave it. If you can't make it on totes, this is your only other option.

And btw Cdn, when are they going to start carrying Northlands Park?

Take it or leave it indeed, rink rat. The thing that gets me most punters on here are getting scalped and they don't even know it. Ignorance is bliss I guess.

What's Northlands Park, do they have racing there?

The canadian - fascinating what you are saying. I've always thought some bot could see the bet almost in advance and cancel prices or vice versa. Where is the NY Times story canadian?

The NY times story is in regards to High Frequency Trading (HFT) in the equities market. Essentially "front running" trades for free money. The concept and the technology involved wouldn't be much different than a betting exchange. Use your imagination to connect the dots.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/24/business/24trading.html?_r=1


(DISCLAIMER: I'm in NO WAY suggesting that is happening on BF. May be on other exchanges, but certainly, absolutely positively NOT here. Let's be absolutely clear about this, got it, absolutely clear, NOT happening here)

I have never had such a hard time matching bets as right now. About impossible to make a big wager unless the wiseguys come in with their money. See Woodbine race 9.

You are absolutely right. I'm glad someone is paying attention.

BTW, do you like anything at Hastings this evening?

I like betting the supers there

Anyone asked Betfair to comment on this thread?

If any of you have a premium account it might mean more.

‘We’ cannot see your trades and ‘we’ are not scalping the market. There are a lot of conspiracy theories on this thread but the realty is that, yes there are bots that operate in the US horse markets as with all markets but the reason why the US racing regular shrewdies are finding it more difficult to get the value at this time of year is the lack of casual gambler interest in the markets which is caused by the time of year. The main reason is the amount of evening summer UK fixtures, particularly when ATR have a full schedule. The issue is further compounded by the world cup markets, wimbledon and the sunny weather in the UK, the other markets are attracting the interest of the casual gamblers away from US horse racing. So what we are left with is weak US horse racing markets being played predominantly controlled by shrewd regulars all chasing the value.

People like the Canadian can provide conspiracy theories about ‘us’ and our control over the markets but in reality if the shrewdies want the value it is those like the Canadian and their fat fingers who are going to miss out because they are too slow to grab what is on offer.

To prove ‘our’ point then wait until the winter time when ATR have a full evening schedule of US racing and there is only Kempton (on RUK) or no evening all weather meetings. Despite what people might think, ATR and Betfair video coverage are the key drivers to liquidity and therefore value in the markets. There are many casual gamblers out there who have much bigger banks and deeper pockets than most of the shrewdies on here and who chose the markets to gamble on based on TV coverage and other media outlets. The bots are there and they are more obvious in the weak markets but as for scalping isn’t the cause for you struggling to make ends meet, it is the simple lack of punters willing to back a horse lower or lay a horse higher than the price it really should be, making trading much more difficult.

Always happy to help…..

Thank you for the long, thoughtful and most insightful explanation. It all really makes sense now. I'll put my tin foil hat away now, I feel much better.

I will be heading to trade-in my Mercedes-Benz for a Ford Escort right after I finish typing this as it would appear with screwdies like "they", "you", "them" or whatever on here, it will get increasingly difficult to maintain the level of profit that I am accustomed to. My deepest appreciation for the early warning.

You post was truly a life altering experience.


P.S. I will also submit an application for the available night watchman position at the local lumber yard just to be sure. And just to think I almost fell for that High Frequency Trading stuff, it's really scary. Thank you.

PMSL  I just dont see you as the night watchman type .

canadian i read your disparaging thoughts about the england football team after the very unlucky defeat to the germans. my analysis is as follows. the first goal should never have happened as goals like that don't happen unless you are in the school playground. so still 0-0. if they hadnt got the first englands defence would have stayed where they were and not gone missing in action and gifted them the second. so upsons goal would have made it 1-0 to england and then lampards goal should have counted so half time 2-0 to england. early in the second half lampard hit the bar with a shot that beat the german goal keeper . v. unlucky. In any normal match that would have gone in but the s.african goals are an inch lower than they are supposed to be so 3-0. then the england defence would have shut up shop so no way passed. england win 3-0. easy