calling markypd

haha.

Thanks. Will be doign Mountaineer tonight, will post here if anything stands out.

Superpippo. No backs stand out tonight. I'll do my best for tomorrow. But I may have a short price lay for you. #1 in race 4, Magical Bravado. Wait 'til the last moment....if I am right it should be around evens, or 6/5. It really has no discernable advantage over its foes, trainer Langley is woefully off form (no wins past 90 days at least) and the rail is a bad place to be at 5 furlongs in this size field at Mountaineer. Should be a very good bet against if gets down to below 2.6 or so.

Also, I am not the least bit afraid of laying likely favourite the 8 in Race 3. Also a horse likely to be grossly overbet given its real chance of winning.

:D good, it's me with € account, keep posting your super NAPs ;) thanks!!!

Cool. Will do. Both those lays were good, including the one in Race 4 finishing well down the field at Evens.

Any more Markey ?

May have something for Mountaineer a little closer to when they start....I want to see the odds before I say anything

Mountaineer definitely your track Mark :D

Again, no standout backs for tonight. But, I do have a lay in the last (9th race) at Turf Paradise. There is a first time starter who looks like it will be taking a lot of money - the 11 horse. 7'/2 in the morning line...and admittedly it does have some First time starter pedigree, and trainer clues in its favour. But it will have to be vastly superior to these to overcome that draw. Its a killer at 5f. If it gets bet down to below 4-1 (would not be surprised if its favoured) I will be taking it on. My only other advice is for Mountaineer, race 5, number 8: monitor the odds closely on the tote: if it hovers around 3 or 4 to 1 or so, and then a flood of late money comes for this Louis Roberto trainee, I will be backing this horse. Roberto is 5 for his last 7, and when he gets hot, he is magic....you can follow his horses blind when he gets like this. I admit the horse is no standout....but it doesn;t matter when Roberto is hot.

Also...if you DO like the 9 in the opener at Mountaineer, I suggest you get on early....as it will finish 2/5 in the tote, and moreover - from that draw, it really should romp. I am getting on early.

thanks!!!! and GL !!

exactly as you said- nice one - some layer was badly stung there

markey one shrewd cookie ;)

#9 landed :D

Indeed, one to note. Thanks for your acknowledgement. I am never worried about people laying with large amounts....perhaps they backed it earlier and are trying to guarantee profit...or who knows? I always trust my own instincts....and if I lose a race, theres a million more to come. :)

good call and thanks for sharing :) gl....

Thanks guys....couple more to come, posted above. g/l if playing....

#11 easiest lay of the day lol

Good Bets for tonight. Nice price likely on 1 of them. Hollywood race 4, Ms Margaritaville (#9) looks very solid and has much in her favour. Race 4 Indiana, a good E/W chance at what should be a very nice price for the 4 Shades of Hope; anticipating he will love the 'real dirt' too. Should place if he doesn;t win. And Race 8 Indianaa....a terrible horse, in a terrible race, bt the 1 post is just so incredibly strong for 1 mile and 70 yards there, it should act as a conveyor belt for the 1 horse, Miracleintown.

markey - wd al Hollwood Park (Jockey eased the horse home - well spotted)

#Hollywood

cheers spiller. The other two looked foolish in the end. but double digit odds on both

?

Sunday, Hollywood Race 4: ......laying this favourite. Not enough pace to set up his run. Sure, hes best on figures, but pace makes the race. Taking a small stab on very high odds (30 or 40??) on the Doug O'Neil firster..... 2nd ride of the jockey's life. How much you want to bet O'Neill tells him to just go to the front? Could be a very good strategy in this paceless race. No harm in taking a stab at those prices.

missed that one, was it a good lay? :) cheers Mark!!

was a bad lay. :(

Race 4, MNR, Tuesday night. Convinced there is something strange about this 8 horse,$1.7 mill AP INDY. Why only two races (4yo) and why stuck in 5 1/2 furlong sprints? I think she gets 'sent' to the lead today, and is friend by the quicker 6 horse. Both will get taken down. I will be laying the fave if she is odds-on, and going with the two inside horses 1 and 2 at nice odds. The 1 has a mild closing kick, that might work today wih the pace and the rail, and may enjoy the switch to dirt. The 2 was only 9-1 in an 11 horse field at Turfway, so something was expected, and perhaps the 2nd time out will see some major improvement. This (should be) much easier. So, to recap, will be laying the 8 if its below 2.0, and backing the 1 and 2 at anything above 6.0. g/l!!!

CORRECTION: Scrap that lay - I just saw the 8 on the track, and he looks magnificent. Will be backing the 1 and the 2 ew - 40 Win/60 Place, for value......but no way I am laying the 8.

8 lost at 2/5! I avgd out at 13.0 on the 2, who was victorious!!

Arright....after a huge boom last night, I have a couple today. First, Churchill, Race 2. Going to bet #6 Clayton's Luck to win. Obviously, 1 and 5 have very strong claims and I will not lay them, but rather take a shot with this legit contender. I will pay for my back by laying both the 2 and the 4, who I feel are severely compromised in here. g/l

boom!!! 6 wins, 12.5 avg!! :)

UR ON FIRE MARK !!

lol WD Mark!!! great call!

Great stuff Mark you know your stuff !

Ok...got a good race for tonight. Evg downs race 4. Will be backing both the 3 and the 11 to win. 3 had an excuse last time, and will love the cutback to 6 1/2. 11 never got untracked around the bullring of Delta, and will love this more spacious Evg (sit of his only win). Should be at least above 6-1 on both, perhaps much more. Slightly worried about the 14, so will be covering him in my exactors on the tote.....and I have some place lays, but I prefer to keep them to myself the pools so small! g/l!!

no good....3 came too late, 3rd by a length

ul mark, cutback never suited

would have won given some luck in running imo , UL TOD

agreed, lagoon....was blocked twice stretch. But hey....thats ok. We're up big time since Superpippo started this!

going to Lousiville....and always dreaming asked me my thoughts, so I repost them here: my strong views of the race are: a) do not bet any horse that needs the lead to win (there are 5-6 of them...lay them ALL! and b) I bet Ice Box on here at 43.0 to win the FLA Derby, and a few times antepost....but the race draws closer I have become more interested in Jackson Bend and DUBLIN. Especially Dublin. Tough, runs all day, and Lukas...one last hurrah??? Reminds of some of his other GR1 winners.....does not stand out, but shows up big when it counts. (Charismatic, Cat Thief, Commendable etc, etc, etc). Looking at Lucky is tough, too, and I like him...but his figures have not progressed from 2-3. Can't lay...but won't back. The filly is very very good, but this is too much to ask. Awesome Act, I am sorry to say, does not fit the bill....could not outrun Jackson Bend after travelling so strongly last time..... I know he's bred to run farther, but to me he looks like a miler. Those are my thoughts. :

cheers!

Mountaineer, race 7. I know this two should win - and the 5 is also legit, but there are enough suspicions I have about their current state of readiness that I am going to take them both on - not by laying - but by backing 3 legit longshots with medium stakes. #4 - this horse looks terrible, but if you look back at the last two times this jock rode it, it won - once at 13-1. Was sent to another trainer, and now back with the winning connections. #9- might fall into a good stalking trip and get the money - certainly has speed to keep up if asked to. #10 has been running at the bulring, Charlestown, and with his tactical speed I think he might really enjoy this 1 turn sprint..... get less dizzy going around and around for one thing.... g/l if playing

sorry..meant 1 and 7 are the two that I am taking on (i had said 5 instead of 7). But yeah, 4, 9, and 10 are the three entries I will back.

Damn, Ice Box a 'too late' 2nd. Kudos to Borel....hes a genius (or perhaps just retarded enough to not know what he is doing)

Well done 4 held on Mount R7, good job.

wd mark!!!!! keep posting these naps pls :D

For Monday Afternoon - One of my favorite 'bet againsts' in the 5th At Delaware. A well-bred Todd Pletcher horse, fairly expensive, quickly dropped down through the ranks after only 2 attempts to be offered for less than 10% of what it cost them at sale. Obviously just trying to get rid of weak stock....Im happy to let it beat me at odds on. Laying it, and also taking it on with the 2 and the First Timer #3. good luck!

pletcher won by a million lengths...aprox. :(

Mnr, Monday, Race 4: the 2 is not nearly so good when rated as he is when leading, and he CANNOT get the lead today without wilting...but I will take him on in other ways. I am again laying 3 horses: the 3, the 6, and the 7. And, I will be backing 1% of bankroll on #1, and .5% on the 5....both of whom are the only two who can legitamately be expected to close for the win. So - lay the 2 if you are braver than I - but lay the 3, 6, and 7....and back - small stakes - the 1 and 5.

test test

Woodbine, Sunday, Race 8: Hollywood Hit, likely favourite - or close 2nd fave.  Cannot see him outrunning Fatal Bullet early, or dominating without exterting too much energy for 7f.  I think he is a fantasic lay if anything under 2.8.

cannot believe I got to lay the 3 at 2.08!!  steal, regardless of result.  Hes now way above the range I would recommend laying him at though.  Would take it on by backing 6 and 5....an 80/20 split in bet size.

3 not only proved me wrong, but shattered the track record.  Thank god only 2.08.

it can happen sometimes... cheers for the posts

Penn, Thurs May 13, Race 8.  Laying the 7 - likely fave.  Will be backing two horses - the 5 and the 2.  Those are the only two likely to grab the lead.  If 5 had a better trainer, I would actually be very confident in it...but she's in poor form, so I am adding the 2 in as it will also have good value. 5 should be longest shot in the field.  Splitting my bet 80/20 in favour of 2, and laying the 7 to lose 5% of bankroll.  Good luck!

Mountainer, Friday night, Race 1.  The only possible negative about the 9 in here is the outside post.  I think she is superior to all of these, in every category, and it might be over even money too.  Big bet of 9, and to add some gravy (and cover some losses if the 9 gets beat) I will be laying liley 3rd choice #4.   Back 9, (BIG), lay 4.

:)

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