Would you take this Faustian deal?

Poor Melly. I didn't know things were that bad. Ask him if he will take you instead of your daughters.

I said you should try and get Menelaus out of your head and give yourself some peace.

I never said you could.

Seven minutes. You held out for a whole seven minutes.

How does it feel to have a constant itch in your head you can't scratch?

How does it feel to be a slave to perceptions someone planted in your head that you now think are real?

How does it feel to have been stupid enough to think this is an innocent game and now you are no more in control of your actions than a monkey on a string?



I bet it feels awful, eh?



As for your previous comment, It's the "you held up" words you involuntarily posted that betray your state of mind. You unknowingly posted how you feel every time you see one of my posts, that you have to  "hold up" to hide your addiction to continually sticking your little winnie in a meat grinder to prove that it doesn't hurt. Normal people post and respond whenever they like, they have no time constraints, they have nothing to fear.

The question needs therefore to be asked again…….how do you plan to get rid of the "Menelaus" I stenciled on your mind"?











































Yeah, go ahead, you can scream now but "hold up" for a while before you respond lest it betrays the control the imbedded "Menelaus" in your mind has over you.

Hmm, thought I had posted a reply last night but it has vanished into the ether.

I thought this was a great post, frightening nonetheless. Also revealing that no dialogue/ debate has ensued. It would have been interesting to read the thoughts of the 'good will triumph over evil come what may' posters?

Probably a dumb question, but what have Greece to lose by taking a radical course of action and saying "Up yours!" to their creditors? The loans were not secured on the Greek infrastructure (presumably). When it has descended to the stage where they are resorting to selling anything worth more than half a crown to try and pay back loans which are ultimately going to default anyway surely they cut losses now?

Who is next after Greece?

What have they got to lose is an interesting question. Many countries have defaulted on their debts in history with all manner of scare stories ringing in their ears only to find themselves paradoxically and very quickly a much better credit risk for potential investors.

I'd ask a Greek about it but my guess is that a large number of Greeks still feel that on balance the EU has been a good thing for them and that a way will be found through the mess. In short they don't want to leave the comfort blanket behind. Nobody ever lost money betting on the stupidity or ignorance of the general populace. Whilst the people remain on board the other people who hold power behind the scenes can go about their business of making sure that the banks can land the rest of their debts onto the taxpayers of Europe and indeed the world whilst they get their grubby mits on as much of the assets as they can in case it goes pop. Throw in the determination of the political elite of europe of maintaining the dream then the situation is unlikely to end in a whimper but a big old bang.

I suspect that the Greece situation has a way to go yet and will continue to draw the flak.

I vowed yesterday not to spend time doing this anymore and I know you are trying awfully hard to prove that you "fit in" on a financials forum, but you should be aware that "when in a hole, stop digging". Economics is not English literature.

So here we go with another 10,000 word post.

Yes, many countries have defaulted before it's true, we all know that, and yes NOT SO paradoxically gained themselves access to the credit markets again BUT many countries have been made to pay by international courts (British courts mostly actually) otherwise their assets out of the country would be seized and any payments flowing back into the country from export trade would be "freezed" and redirected to the creditors as they go through the central banks' clearing system. This has been the case with debt written in UK law. Many countries are still paying on debt they defaulted on years ago even today.

In the case of debt issued in local law, countries have been more successful in resolving it for obvious reasons. They write the laws which can be amended at any time (this happened in Greece during the PSI were collective action clauses were changed retroactively) plus the debt can be paid back in the new devalued currency that always follows a default. Even in these cases however, there has been legal action brought forth by the creditors and most of these cases have been settled out of court with the creditors receiving a serious haircut but at least receiving something. In the case of Venezuela, that something was 50pc, nothing exactly to sneeze at.

There is no recognized legal process for a sovereign to declare bankruptcy, that's what defaulting really means. Which inevitably means there's no acceptable way for resolving or writing off the outstanding loans. It is indeed scary, but in that sense, those loans are forever and can not legally by resolved other than agreeing on some form of payment/settelment. Most successful defaults took place (Equator is a good example, although they too are still paying) when the country about to default bought back (removed) their outstanding bonds for pennies to the dollar in the open market. This leaves less, way less, headaches to worry about when they actual default is announced.

A Greek default would be complicated, if for no other reason that it would mean an immediate exit from the eurozone (but not necessarily the EU) but also the effect on the remaining outstanding debt. When the Greek PSI took place, Greece had outstanding bonds of around 259bn euro of which around 52bn was held by the ECB/Eurosystem and 270bn were in private hands, and again in turn, 130bn of those in private hands were held by foreign investors. The rest was held by domestic banks and state pension funds which had to be recapitalized following the PSI. Around 5bn of bonds were held by private foreign investors and escaped a haircut as they were under UK law. The remaining outstanding debt is now held by the ECB (about 45bn last I checked), the IMF, and the 17 other eurozone central banks, and ALL of it is now written in UK law, that was part of the condition for bailing Greece out and orchestrating the PSI. Any losses on those bonds if Greece defaults would have to be borne by european taxpayers (it would turn the whole eurozone crisis on its head because of the political casualties - Merkel has always maintained that the German taxpayer will bare no losses - but also what it means with the Spanish bailout on deck (not to mention possibly Italy and France down the road as well). The IMF would have its own issues as it has never allowed a haircut on its loans before and they damn well know that would set a dangerous precedent if they accepted a Greek haircut or write-off. The IMF has a lot of outstanding loans out there that all of a sudden could be at risk. THERE IS REASON WHY GREECE IS NOT ALLOWED TO DEFAULT.

The benefits of Greece defaulting and returning to a devalued drachma are obviously an immediately return to labour wage and price competitiveness (instead of the death by a thousand cuts imposed now by the internal devaluation forced by Troika austerity) and being able to print its own currency to support its failing social programs (there's a negative side to this, more on this later) . Exports receive a great boost, re-industrialization takes place (Greek had a lot of small industry BEFORE the euro which has been absolutely decimated - that's what happens when you get in the same ring with Germany competing with the same coin), foreign investment flows back in, the agriculture products and tourism industry flourishes again, unemployment recedes, other economic activity picks up, money is repatriated, lending increases, money velocity increases, and lo and behold Greece after sometime returns to the credit markets again.

Not so fast, and not before a lot of pain however.

It's the period right after a default that's the real b1tch,

Imports become too expensive (local industry will eventually fill the need, that's the whole idea, but they need time to ramp up), inflation rages again (the Greek government has a history of debasing the drachma through over-printing), international contracts written in foreign law need to be settled in foreign exchange which puts many more of Greek businesses out of business, and perhaps the most critical……IMPORTING OIL. Greece is an energy hog, it imports almost 500,000 barrels of oil per day which need to be paid in US dollars, you do the arithmetic as to what that means in cash outflows.

I follow the situation in Greece closely because I speak the language (long story) and have business contacts there. Greece is a powder keg looking for a short lit fuse at the moment. The coalition government is falling apart, PASOK is in disarray, the public has had enough and the situation is explosive with the politicians only interested in maneuvering for power by creating alliances for "new" political parties. The whole thing is a mess. Greece, If the EU leaders don't come to their senses very soon, will be  humanitarian disaster of grand proportions.

It doesn't have to be this way. I've always advocated Greece leaving the euro as the only sensible solution. It can be done in a way to mitigate the great negatives and chaos that usually follows a default (I can elaborate in a separate post if anyone is interested, this one is waaaay too long already). Some others evidently agree with me:

Han-Werner Sinn, head of Germany's Ifo institute was quoted a couple of days ago saying "It is becoming cruel to keep Greece in the EMU. The austerity needed to restore wage and price competitiveness will break society first. We are sacrificing a generation of young people who cannot find work, and all in the name of the euro. It is irresponsible. A euro exit would offer hope at last."

Instead of trying your obsessive flirting with me why don't you just simply give your opinion to Muqbil?

Wow, your masochism runs deep, I never thought of fist ******* someone as flirting.






I answered Muqbil's question and then some, with substance, not with fluff trying to pass an answer. Thanks for dancing for me.

"as an answer"

I thought you were far too busy to give me an answer to why you called a tsunami of inflation in commodities following QE2?

How is your gold bet doing in that time? 

Wow, those are new steps, what dance is that?





The sun for the day when I decide to start responding to every piece of drivel you put up here trying to hide your stupidity by conducting evasive maneuvers hasn't come up yet.

But thanks for dancing for me nonetheless.

Have you stoped working at 1357? Menalaus operate during working time.

post drivel.........dress down.......post drivel.......dress down.........post drivel..........dress down........post under an alias.........ignore.........post drivel..........dress down.........post drivel........

WASH....RINSE.....REPEAT

YAWN

But, I like you anyway.

Of course you, it's called the Stockholm Syndrome.

Interesting reading, thanks for the in depth reply. Next time someone in our group at the restaurant pipes up "Greece should simply default on their loans", I will try and recite some of what has been posted above :)

You are not my hostage or anybody else, but mainly in your own mind.

Melly

Your mistakes are mounting. First that tsunami. Then you suggested that I would feel the need to post under any alias to take you down. Chatlame and Carlos must be incensed that you are suggesting that they are in any way related to a clown like me.

You're done kid. With that ego you had to be right every time. You weren't.

A very impressive post Mr Price. Still, if Betfair could find some tool to block yours and eeternals reply posts that would be nice. Also, I do ponder how many times you use the term strawmen to deflect about how you post.
Anyway, if I may ask a question - when (if) the Greece default happens, who could (or have arranged to) be their allies and friends?
PS better hit the sack. Internet plus x red wine = dangerous.
Good night!

@ Muqbil

You are welcome. Anytime.





@ Banwana

Greece, since its civil war ended after WWII, has always been under the US political sphere of influence. After all this is what the Greek civil war was all about, to stop the spreading Soviet influence (through their satellite states) at the Balkans and away from the Mediterranean. Greece is a member of NATO and has been supported financially by the US through "aid" packages throughout the years and right up to the time when they entered the eurozone, after which the cash inflows changed to flowing in from the eurozone itself.

The political parties in power today include ΝΔ (right of centre party) lead by Mr. Samaras  which collected the most votes in the last election, but not enough for a majority government. Participating in the Samaras governing coalition is  ΠΑΣΟΚ (the socialist party) currently lead by Mr Venizelos and by the much smaller ΔHMAP (left of centre) party lead by Mr. Kouvelis. What unites these three parties is their europhile political stance. All of these three parties consider, and present to the public as such, a euro exit as complete catastrophe. The truth is both ΝΔ and ΠΑΣΟΚ, most often lead by the iconic families in Greek politics of Karamanlis and Papandreou,  are the only parties that have been alternating in power since after the war (their rule broken up briefly by the dictatorship imposed by the army (Greek junta) during the period of 1967-74 - the fall of which precipitated the invasion of Cyprus by Turkey), have been exposed to be corrupt to the core, a plutocracy only interested and protecting and enriching the Greek elite and whose sole interest is not the Greek people by rather protecting and maintaining the status quo at all cost. Right, left or socialist leanings were really nothing more than window dressing for collecting votes.

Several scandals have broken of late (Tsohazopoulos receiving millions in kick-backs from Germans and Russians for the purchase of military weapons as the Minister of Defence in the ΠΑΣΟΚ government, Bakoyianni as a Minister for Foreign Affairs in the ΝΔ government receiving millions in kick-backs from Siemens to pave the road for receiving government contracts and many many many others). Both of these parties, as they alternated in power, showed an open preference and support in embracing US foreign policies. The money from the US flowed in, the rich kept most of it, some trickled down to the general public, everyone, right, left, rich and poor alike were happy.

The smaller  ΔHMAP, which is a splinter party from KKE, the Greek communist party, does indeed have some members who are definitely left leaning in their political agendas but their leader Mr. Kouvelis is driven solely by his ambition to become Prime Minister, and as of late since it has now become obvious that is not going to happen, he aspires to be President, a position that is largely ceremonial. Despite it's history and left leanings, this party too however is pro-west and decidedly pro-American in their foreign policy agenda.

Which brings us to ΣΥΡΙΖΑ.

This emerging party, currently leading in the polls if a new election would be called, is lead by the young Mr. Tsipras. Its political platform is based on tearing up the memorandum of understanding with Troika (i.e., austerity) and renegotiating new aid for Greece while still remaining in the euro. Mr Tsipras argues that since it has been estimated by the IMF itself that a Greek default could result in $17 trillion negative impact and wealth destroyed in the global economy, the EZ leadership should not be driving these negotiations as they clearly have been up to now, but rather Greek leadership should. Supporting Greece through a marshal plan type program, the EZ accepting haircuts on the current loans to make repayment possible or lowering interest rates and extending maturities to make the debt sustainable is a far cheaper option for the eurozone, Mr. Tsipras argues. In my opinion, he's got the right idea, Greece has been betrayed by its ruling plutocracy but extending and pretending is not the answer either. The root cause of Greece's current malaise is the euro (there are also other serious issues, I don't mean to lessen their importance). Without removing the root cause of the problem, you are only fooling yourself that the future can be any better. Having said all that, although Mr. Tsipras and his party have a past deeply rooted in left wing politics, they too are pre-US leaning, in fact Mr. Tsipras is already courting the Americans for support. One of his advisors on the economy is Prof. Kotsias and one of the "if forced out of the euro" solutions he is advocating is for Greece to have two currencies in circulation simultaneously, a new drachma and the US dollar as a means of trying to contain very high inflation.

The Chinese have made overtures for investments in Greece, particularly the Greek main ports as an entry point for their manufactured products in the EU, but they've backed off once they realized that the Greeks only viewed them as a cash cow to be milked, while at the same time maintaining their pro-west foreign policies. This became abundantly clear when Greece voted in favour of the EU blocking Iranian oil exports into the EU as part of the American imposed sanctions, although at the time Iran was the only oil producer to continue to ship oil to Greece on credit during this crisis, I'm sure with the full knowledge that those IOUs would never be paid. The Russians have settled on having a big influence on Cyprus (along with Syria) as their presence in the levant, as opposed to courting the Greeks. Gazprom has a great interest in the natural gas untapped finds in Greek territorial waters but so do others like the Israelis. That hasn't played out yet.

Give me a second to catch my breath…..

The short answer is Greece has always been under the US political sphere of influence and it will firmly remain so. I believe the Russians and the Chinese have come to the same conclusion.


As for your strawman comment, I believe that when we are debating oranges and someone's argument unravels and blows up in their face, so they start making sh1t up you haven't said or implied about apples, and proceed to destroy these phoney arguments about apples you never said in the first place and declaring victory in the process is absolute bullsh1t. I call it strawmen to be polite.

And finally, not only it wouldn't bother me, I would in fact encourage you and everyone else to block me. If I'm posting with the full knowledge that everyone has blocked me, so no one can see what I have to say, then I wouldn't be disgusted as I am now with the collective "hypocrisy of silence" that is now prevalent on this forum. Yes, indeed, a psychopath has managed to take your forum away from you and not a leaf has stirred.

I appreciate the reply, thank you.

Yes, indeed, a psychopath has managed to take your forum away from you and not a leaf has stirred.

So when will you give these good folk back their forum?

Eeternaloptimist, the sparring is entertaining to an extent, but why not engage in proper dialogue with Melly? Instead of your 02 Nov 12 10:27 one liner, why not either refute or agree or pull apart what had been posted. I'm sure I am not the only person who would love to read some genuine debate from you guys.

Genuine debate can only be done when one possesses a genuine understanding of the subject matter being debated. Parroting someone elses's ideas that you don't even understand is not conducive to genuine and meaningful debate. Even worse, spewing complete nonsense in an effort to feign knowledge and setting up strawmen arguments (there's that word again) to obfuscate how little genuine understanding of the issues you really have turns the entire "debate" (I use the word loosely here) into a complete joke.

I fully undertsand this chap dropped in from a different forum, bright-eyed and bushy-tailed trying to satisfy his pathological need to have a fight (I'm not making this sh1t up, I was in applied psychology long before I got into economics). Then he discovered that walking onto a forum that discusses stuff that your knowledge about is only anecdotal leads to predictable results. Sooner or later someone pulls your trousers down and gives you a spanking in full public view. If you are a normal person, you wouldn't do this in the first place, but if for some reason only known to yourself you did, that would be your cue to start learning as opposed to arguing. What do psychopaths do? They start bringing in "reinforcements" by posting under different aliases. By this time, the original "debate" is but a distant memory and the forum has turned into the theater of the absurd.

There is nothing really genuine to debate on here anymore. And for what purpose and for whose benefit exactly? The majority on here, bar a few, have apparently decided that a psychopath on the loose is  a lesser evil than a c0cky poster who calls a spade a spade. Hence, a collective hypocrisy of silence.

Is the forum better off without me posting? Some seem to think yes, one even shamelessly posted he he would "take action" to see that it happens, and the psychopath posted more then once he wishes to see me dead (the posts are still up). Only you Muqbil posted that you would like to see me continue to post on here. And predictably, the silent majority are nowhere to be seen. Hypocrisy is a far worse vice than ignorance.

Is the forum better off without me posting? I think it's high time we find out.

Muqbil

Because although we come at it from different perspectives there is a lot (not everything) I broadly agree with. I take exception to two things. His absolute and indefatigable certainty which I do not share and his dogs abuse of anybody who dares disagree with him.

Such a person deserves to be ridiculed.

Ey up. I read your post before the resident gobshiites. It looks as if he is finally threatening to pop his ball so nobody can play. Such is his self obsession that he doesn't realise that there is nobody for him to play with.

Look in the mirror Melly. You are the problem. Your characterisation of yourself as as a brash tell it like it is son of a gun is delusional. You are a bully who cannot stand dissent and you have been told this by many people.

Like you say I'm just passing through but I have commented on this forum plenty of times in the past without rancour. You are always the common denominator in that rancour. I am just the latest manifestation of it. The fact that I refuse to kowtow to you having previously taken you to school on your obsessional myopia burns you so you resort to sick personalisation. The only thing is there is nobody left to ask about this because they left in disgust at your antics.

Take your popped ball home sucker. Who knows whether in time this forum will recover? It certainly cannot get any more desolate and that will be your legacy. Mine will be slaying the dragon.

I have seen and studied a lot of what mental illness does to a person in my life, but you are truly in a class and universe of your own. A case study that ought be taught at every serious medical school in the country.

You define psychopathy. Start with a heavy dose of sociopathic behavior and tendencies, throw a little bit of Ganser syndrome into the mix, add some serious debilitating depression as well as an unlimited amount of delusion and......voila, your mental state is perfectly defined.

The only dragons to slay on here are in your sick mind. At least those that you can in fact slay. It's always the most impotent that boast about their sexual prowess. 

This dragon has pulled your pants down and spanked you at every turn on here when you were stupid and foolish enough to parrot something that you thought probably made sense at the time, based on your anecdotal knowledge. You are all fluff and no substance. You can't hide that no matter how many names you post under.

Next time you try to "slay a dragon", try using a real sword, it's called knowledge, not a make believe fantasies you create in your sick mind along with parroted articles you read but don't understand. Unfortunately however, reality and your condition are not the best of friends.

Some passing through !!! You need to explain TO YOURSELF what had you (and apparently still does) by the balls riveted to this forum for months and surely now a thousand posts later. Trying to lick your wounds hiding behind aliases or creating windmills that you can tilt hardly qualifies as passing through as a "slayer" of all things evil.

But here lies the crux of the matter. As long as the hypocrites on here, who full well know the extend of your superficial "contributions" (I use the word extremely loosely) and the silly games you engaged on here, continue to give you a pass, you will feel to have been given license to continue to litter this forum with vile absurdities and deluting yourself that you are in fact........St. George.



What you have to come to terms with is that what I stenciled on your mind is FOREVER.

I neglected to ask, what do you think, should Muqbil "ask a Greek about it", or could someone else who KNOWS answer his question?

Some "slayer" you are......

muqbil

And there you have it.

At least he didn't pop his ball after bursting into tears about nobody liking him. With good reason mind. He's a cnunt.

Good job you two are not wasting time with all this.

A good debate is never wasted time and if Melly ever offers up one...............

Banwana 04 Nov 12 21:41 
Good job you two are not wasting time with all this.


Spot on Banwana. It's not my ball I'm popping so nobody can play.......it's my time.

And last I checked, nobody is playing anymore with or without my ball. The same lunatic glued to this forum in triplicate frightened the crowd away.


Eeternaloptimist 04 Nov 12 21:51 
A good debate is never wasted time and if Melly ever offers up one.............


A little too late for pleasantries, init wheelchair boy?

For what purpose and for whose benefit?

Unless you consider schooling a deluted psychopath who shows up on here in triplicate, and performing more evasive maneuvers than an F35 trying to avoid a missile, good debate and not a waste of time.

Try spelling the word "economics" correctly first before you ask for a debate.