Tradefair & Financials
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We heard the "unlimited" (STERILIZED) word out of Draghi but………..the German high court decision put a ceiling on unlimited, at least not one to exceed without major political risks. The acceptance of "conditionality" required from Spain and Italy seems to be resisted with Merkel and Schauble even saying those two countries should not apply for a bailout and why should they, the ECB without buying a single bond, just with jawboning, has managed to bring their borrowing rates down substantially, Greece continues to be a mess and it will require and ultimately given a third bailout (on the way to it's fourth bailout), the EZ core economies are surely slipping into recession, the peripheral EZ economies are mired into full blown depressions, unemployment is rising, global trade is slowing down, the banks are showered with liquidity but still are insolvent, in other words, nothing has changed.
We now hear the "unlimited" (UNSTERILIZED) word out of Bernanke but……..buying MBS not Treasuries (it cleans more toxic garbage from the banks balance sheets but that's about it) does very little in recovering the crumbling US housing market as rates are already at all time lows, it does absolutely nothing in funding the US Gov't's massive deficits and their upcoming fiscal cliff, it does nothing to help unemployment because the problem is structural not cyclical (the off shored jobs are not coming back any time soon and even if policies were put in place to re-balance the relationship with China it would take years for the effect to be felt with the multinationals fighting those policies every step of the way), the US banks are drowning in liquidity but are still insolvent, US major trading partners are showing a plunge in their exports to the US which indicates an economic slowdown in the US which the US gov't has been trying to disguise, petroleum distillate usage is down significantly, port and rail traffic are both pointing to a slowdown, in other words, nothing has changed.
Geopolitical pressures is still keeping the price of Brent at a level that is suffocating economic growth despite unprecedented demand destruction. More money printing is not exactly building a case for the oil bears, in fact quite the contrary. And the effects of sustained oil price increases are, contrary to popular belief deflationary for an economy, not inflationary. In other words the money printers not only are pushing on a string, they are actually making things worse.
How to trade this:
The S&P should easily hit 1475-1500 form here, with fierce resistance at 1500 (I know, I know, in this manipulated mad house fundamentals and technicals become irrelevant but at some point the stench will be hard to hide), then I believe these policies will come under question as it will become evident the underlying problems haven't been resolved. The downside to taking a short position is limited to about 50 points, the downside if this things breaks and gets away from the central banks could be 300 pts. In the sidelines at the moment and looking for an entry point to short, Obama re-election FED effort or not.
Three last points.
1. Bernanke pulling the trigger like that today to goose the markets this close to the US election in what seems to be a hugely politically motivated decision instead of an economic one (this announcement does absolutely nothing for unemployment and energy and food cost inputs have already increased by 10pc the last two months, this will actually make matters worse), I think he will one day find out that the Republicans have long memories. UNLESS, the shadow banking system was about to blow up due to lack of good collateral and the FED stepped in. We don't know that, Bernanke knows that though and he will make sure Boehner does. Have a look: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-11/bny-mellon-says-derivatives-may-need-4-trillion-more-collateral.html
2. Those gold bulls out there who see this as the breakout for "gold to the sky" contain your enthusiasm. The FED will smack gold down soon enough as a breakout over $2,000 will not be allowed until they lose control. They haven't yet (although we are getting close - bear in mind this is unsterilized monetization which means new money to the tune of $40bn will be entering the system every month OPEN ENDED in exchange for worthless garbage and this is money that can be leveraged !!!!!) and Bernanke has got the gold market by the balls. Same story will apply to oil if it gets out of hand, expect CME margin increases and SPR releases to calm the waters.
3. What the FED did is about as close to an "all in" call as you can get. An admission of how dire things REALLY are in my opinion.
We now hear the "unlimited" (UNSTERILIZED) word out of Bernanke but……..buying MBS not Treasuries (it cleans more toxic garbage from the banks balance sheets but that's about it) does very little in recovering the crumbling US housing market as rates are already at all time lows, it does absolutely nothing in funding the US Gov't's massive deficits and their upcoming fiscal cliff, it does nothing to help unemployment because the problem is structural not cyclical (the off shored jobs are not coming back any time soon and even if policies were put in place to re-balance the relationship with China it would take years for the effect to be felt with the multinationals fighting those policies every step of the way), the US banks are drowning in liquidity but are still insolvent, US major trading partners are showing a plunge in their exports to the US which indicates an economic slowdown in the US which the US gov't has been trying to disguise, petroleum distillate usage is down significantly, port and rail traffic are both pointing to a slowdown, in other words, nothing has changed.
Geopolitical pressures is still keeping the price of Brent at a level that is suffocating economic growth despite unprecedented demand destruction. More money printing is not exactly building a case for the oil bears, in fact quite the contrary. And the effects of sustained oil price increases are, contrary to popular belief deflationary for an economy, not inflationary. In other words the money printers not only are pushing on a string, they are actually making things worse.
How to trade this:
The S&P should easily hit 1475-1500 form here, with fierce resistance at 1500 (I know, I know, in this manipulated mad house fundamentals and technicals become irrelevant but at some point the stench will be hard to hide), then I believe these policies will come under question as it will become evident the underlying problems haven't been resolved. The downside to taking a short position is limited to about 50 points, the downside if this things breaks and gets away from the central banks could be 300 pts. In the sidelines at the moment and looking for an entry point to short, Obama re-election FED effort or not.
Three last points.
1. Bernanke pulling the trigger like that today to goose the markets this close to the US election in what seems to be a hugely politically motivated decision instead of an economic one (this announcement does absolutely nothing for unemployment and energy and food cost inputs have already increased by 10pc the last two months, this will actually make matters worse), I think he will one day find out that the Republicans have long memories. UNLESS, the shadow banking system was about to blow up due to lack of good collateral and the FED stepped in. We don't know that, Bernanke knows that though and he will make sure Boehner does. Have a look: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-11/bny-mellon-says-derivatives-may-need-4-trillion-more-collateral.html
2. Those gold bulls out there who see this as the breakout for "gold to the sky" contain your enthusiasm. The FED will smack gold down soon enough as a breakout over $2,000 will not be allowed until they lose control. They haven't yet (although we are getting close - bear in mind this is unsterilized monetization which means new money to the tune of $40bn will be entering the system every month OPEN ENDED in exchange for worthless garbage and this is money that can be leveraged !!!!!) and Bernanke has got the gold market by the balls. Same story will apply to oil if it gets out of hand, expect CME margin increases and SPR releases to calm the waters.
3. What the FED did is about as close to an "all in" call as you can get. An admission of how dire things REALLY are in my opinion.
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To be fair that was very well articulated and interesting reading.
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Eeternaloptimist 14 Sep 12 00:23
To be fair that was very well articulated and interesting reading.  Research STOCKHOLM SYNDROME.......then you'll understand why subconsciously YOU HAD to post that. Remind me again, why are you glued to this forum and who is got who in his clutches???  |
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Once again I emerge as the stronger man even when complimenting you. There are many ways of suffering defeat. I'll keep introducing you to them.
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Yes Don Quixote yes, you chivalrous knight, engage in brave and unequal combat against those giants.
Wait, wait, wait……oooooh sh1t, I think your lance got caught in the windmill’s sail…feck what a sad sight. You really have nothing anymore, do you? Not that I expected you to, this a trading and financials forum and you are like a fish out of water here......and it shows. And no, I can't claim I broke you, you were broken long before you showed up here. I've seen my share of sick fecks on these forums but you mate are without a doubt in a league of your own. Ponder this for a couple of weeks sitting in front of your keyboard creating fantasies in your sick mind while I enjoy life. Cheers |
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I shan't be posting for the next couple of weeks however. My two daughters are back in school now and my wife and I are headed to our place in the Loire to enjoy some quality time ( ) together until the end of the month. We're about 10 minutes from Amboise and the area there is just absolutely gorgeous this time of the year.
Cheers......see you in a bit. And over four hours later you are back sniffing my nuts. Please go with what little shred of dignity you have left and use all your diminished power of self control to resist returning for the promised period. It'll be good for you. Trust me. |
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1. Without knowing it, like much of what you do here, you once again provided proof why you are glued to this forum for months now, although you clearly are massively ignorant to be posting on a financial forum. YOU ARE ADDICTED to reading every single word, every single line in every single one of my posts on here. That's the invisible hand that's got you by the balls and keeps you here.
2. I never said what specific time I was traveling this weekend, it's only your DEFECTIVE mind that assumed that I'm leaving the very second I finished posting that. 3. Evidently you have deluted yourself into thinking that posting on here at any time, even FOUR HOURS later after you do, is a sign that "I'm sniffing your nuts". First of all you confuse sniffing your nuts, I'll leave your imaginary handicapped wife to do that, with torturing someone who was stupid enough to let me mess with their head. And it's forever. Second, if you even remotely understood the meaning of the word dignity you would have stopped humiliating yourself over and over again on here long ago. 4. Here's something you revealed about you, again without even realizing you are disclosing it. You live alone. No wife, no family, no friends, no caretaker, no cat, no dog, no nothing. Totally and utterly alone. 5. Do you have a Plan B during my absence, or do you simply double up on your medication? |
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2. I never said what specific time I was traveling this weekend, it's only your DEFECTIVE mind that assumed that I'm leaving the very second I finished posting that.
I didn't. If I made any assumption it would be that on the balance of probabilities I would be quite easily able to drag you back with a click of my fingers despite you having previously posted this which was highly suggestive, not that you would be leaving that very second but that you wouldn't be revisiting the forum before you left. I shan't be posting for the next couple of weeks however.......Cheers......see you in a bit. Of course you couldn't help yourself which as I indicated was always your likeliest course of action. Call it building an irrefutable case laden with multiple strands of compelling evidence if you like. Having said that I do think that this time you really will resist posting in an attempt to show your mettle. Which of course will be further proof if any were needed about who really is pushing the buttons. As for plans, a wise man has a multitude of fluid plans based on experience revealing the necessity to adapt to changing circumstance. I'm not sure why you would think I will need to deviate from plan A with you though. You enjoy your holiday. |
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To quote Menelaus above
"-------my wife and I are headed to our place in the Loire to enjoy some quality time together until the end of the month. We're about 10 minutes from Amboise and the area is just absolutely gorgeous this time of the year." Well I just have to say that is about the plummiest post I have read or am ever likely to read. I don't think even the royals would think or say something like that. Well each to his own I suppose. |
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Fine As
If I've interpreted plummy right I'd take the opposite view. Old money wouldn't be so vulgar. They seem to take pride in understatement. I met my local MP Lord Thurso the other day and he was a very nice man who was very well attired but for the fact that he didn't look like he'd had a wash for a week or his suit dry cleaned for a couple of years. It was as if he was making an unspoken statement that he didn't want to rub peoples noses in it and didn't need to seek to impress. Melly's comment above drips with a new money one upmanship obsession very well characterised by the Harry Enfield, "I couldn't help noticing but I'm considerably richer than you" sketch. |