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I'll admit I don't know a lot about the best way to take a long term view of a currency ( 3 years approx ) and looking for advice. Whether best to just buy the currency and put it in a local interest bearing bank account or to make a spread bet. I've only read Robbie Burns book and looked at demo-tradefair which seems bad value as there are daily charges, so still a fair bit to learn.
It's only fair to explain my reasoning: the pound is fetching about 5.1 Polish zlotys right now and I reckon that in 3-4 years it will be below 1 to 4. The UK economy looks like contracting 1-2% in each of those years, Poland's will have slight growth. The UK exchequer has no serious plan ( correction no plan at all ) to balance the budget so it's going to be an ongoing combination of QE and borrowing to pay the bills, more QE as borrowing costs rise or get restricted. And on top, many Poles working in Britain who may have bought houses/cars opened ISAs etc may decide to cash out and return to their birth-country, so sales of sterling and purchases of zlotys will result.
I'm not so much interested in whether the reasoning above is right, more what is the best way to profit from taking a view ( am prepared to lose 7500 GBP if totally wrong ).
It's only fair to explain my reasoning: the pound is fetching about 5.1 Polish zlotys right now and I reckon that in 3-4 years it will be below 1 to 4. The UK economy looks like contracting 1-2% in each of those years, Poland's will have slight growth. The UK exchequer has no serious plan ( correction no plan at all ) to balance the budget so it's going to be an ongoing combination of QE and borrowing to pay the bills, more QE as borrowing costs rise or get restricted. And on top, many Poles working in Britain who may have bought houses/cars opened ISAs etc may decide to cash out and return to their birth-country, so sales of sterling and purchases of zlotys will result.
I'm not so much interested in whether the reasoning above is right, more what is the best way to profit from taking a view ( am prepared to lose 7500 GBP if totally wrong ).
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I can think of a lot of ways to put 7,500 GBPs at work (and at risk) but taking a three-year view on currencies, never mind the zloty, is not one of them.
12 month term deposit at around a 4 percent return, or maybe riskier polish assets.
So let me get this straight, 4pc is putting money to work where you live?
No wonder you're still a burden to your mom.
No wonder you're still a burden to your mom.
bongo, come on mate, this is your thread FFS, you can't just put it up and disappear like this.
The spaghetti this hapless mug threw up on the wall is now all the way down to the floor FFS. A 12 month term deposit at around 4pc is not putting your money at work, it's watching it wither away. Your not even outrunning real inflation (hint:it's not subdued and it's not 2.7pc) and he hasn't even discounted for the risk in your trade. It's investing for children.........financially illiterate children at that.
I think taking a three year view on any FX cross in this environment is downright insane but if you must at least give some consideration on the impact on your trade from something that didn't even receive honorable mention in your post..........the euro.
Best of luck regardless.
The spaghetti this hapless mug threw up on the wall is now all the way down to the floor FFS. A 12 month term deposit at around 4pc is not putting your money at work, it's watching it wither away. Your not even outrunning real inflation (hint:it's not subdued and it's not 2.7pc) and he hasn't even discounted for the risk in your trade. It's investing for children.........financially illiterate children at that.
I think taking a three year view on any FX cross in this environment is downright insane but if you must at least give some consideration on the impact on your trade from something that didn't even receive honorable mention in your post..........the euro.
Best of luck regardless.
It's investing for children
This is where most people are at though - a house, an extension, an allotment perhaps, an ISA, some shares since privatisation or from the company you work or once worked for, a pension managed by someone else, a unit trust, and maybe one investment regarded as a punt.
Most people don't have the time, or the quickness of mind to have learned as much as yourself Menelaus. Feck it, there's some top level people with degrees in Economics ( Nobel Prize winners even ) who have been shown to be clueless when it comes to riskier investments.
Was just looking for ideas and to be fair polybot's idea of looking at polish deposit rates or assets isn't bad, getting 20-25% return over say 3 years would be nice for me.
This is where most people are at though - a house, an extension, an allotment perhaps, an ISA, some shares since privatisation or from the company you work or once worked for, a pension managed by someone else, a unit trust, and maybe one investment regarded as a punt.
Most people don't have the time, or the quickness of mind to have learned as much as yourself Menelaus. Feck it, there's some top level people with degrees in Economics ( Nobel Prize winners even ) who have been shown to be clueless when it comes to riskier investments.
Was just looking for ideas and to be fair polybot's idea of looking at polish deposit rates or assets isn't bad, getting 20-25% return over say 3 years would be nice for me.
"Menelaus
08 Aug 12 21:51
I can think of a lot of ways to put 7,500 GBPs at work"
we know, your MASSIVE AAPL short would have lost you half of the 7,500, then your idiotic QQQ puts would have lost you ALL of it. Leaving you with just your Tampax reserves....
08 Aug 12 21:51
I can think of a lot of ways to put 7,500 GBPs at work"
we know, your MASSIVE AAPL short would have lost you half of the 7,500, then your idiotic QQQ puts would have lost you ALL of it. Leaving you with just your Tampax reserves....
"Was just looking for ideas and to be fair polybot's idea of looking at polish deposit rates or assets isn't bad, getting 20-25% return over say 3 years would be nice for me"
Show me how you get a REAL 20-25% return from that horrid "idea".
I know not everyone is a financial analyst or an economist, and I also know they too often get it wrong, but if someone doesn't understand real from nominal, doesn't consider the effect of inflation on their money and doesn't discount for risk when evaluating a trade, then "investing" their money without help or a lot of research is not something they should be doing..........even if it's a mere pittance of an amount like 7,500 GBP.
Show me how you get a REAL 20-25% return from that horrid "idea".
I know not everyone is a financial analyst or an economist, and I also know they too often get it wrong, but if someone doesn't understand real from nominal, doesn't consider the effect of inflation on their money and doesn't discount for risk when evaluating a trade, then "investing" their money without help or a lot of research is not something they should be doing..........even if it's a mere pittance of an amount like 7,500 GBP.
"Show me how you get a REAL 20-25% return from that horrid "idea""
******************* crickets chirping ***********************
bongo, don't you think that if our resident Chauncey the gardener financial guru who gave you this great "idea" could refute what I'm saying, he wouldn't have done it by now. The first time the clueless mug stepped away from his "buy apple" at any cost and for no reason safety blanket, he laid a turd of bennyesque proportions.
It's your money, you can do as you like, but when investing I put money to work, I don't watch it wither away.
And one final thought bongo, nothing to do with economics or finance. Next time you evaluate an "idea", consider the source. It will save you a lot of money in the future.
******************* crickets chirping ***********************
bongo, don't you think that if our resident Chauncey the gardener financial guru who gave you this great "idea" could refute what I'm saying, he wouldn't have done it by now. The first time the clueless mug stepped away from his "buy apple" at any cost and for no reason safety blanket, he laid a turd of bennyesque proportions.
It's your money, you can do as you like, but when investing I put money to work, I don't watch it wither away.
And one final thought bongo, nothing to do with economics or finance. Next time you evaluate an "idea", consider the source. It will save you a lot of money in the future.
"Show me how you get a REAL 20-25% return from that horrid "idea""
There's the rub - buying at 0.2 and selling at 0.25 ( zlotys to the pound ) gets you the 25%. Protecting against inflation and keeping transaction charges as low as possible are issues.
There's the rub - buying at 0.2 and selling at 0.25 ( zlotys to the pound ) gets you the 25%. Protecting against inflation and keeping transaction charges as low as possible are issues.
That's the problem with most "investors", bongo, they are very poor in assessing risk. Nowhere in the "12 month term deposit idea around 4 percent" was risk in the trade assessed, and nowhere in your wishful thinking 25% returns scenario was risk assessed either. In financial terms we call it discounting for risk, I mentioned it several times in my posts but it seems it went over your head. And quite frankly I can only think of a few trades riskier than taking three year views on FX.
Most "investors" find out the hard way so will you.
Good luck nonetheless.
P.S. The other problem that "investors" have is that mostly their analysis is greatly lacking, typically very shallow viewing their trade in isolation in a financial world where just about everything is interconnected. But that's a discussion for a different day.
Most "investors" find out the hard way so will you.
Good luck nonetheless.
P.S. The other problem that "investors" have is that mostly their analysis is greatly lacking, typically very shallow viewing their trade in isolation in a financial world where just about everything is interconnected. But that's a discussion for a different day.
Come on bongo, just as the debate was getting good, you are nowhere to be seen again.
I have an "idea". Instead of only putting up £7,500 for this trade, why not throw £75,000 at it, or even better liquidate all your assets and throw £7,500,000 at it. Add some leverage into the mix and now you are talking some meaningful numbers. At a certain 25pc return, why not? Who could refuse?
You would refuse, as every rational person out there would refuse because of something called……….RISK.
The dreadful suggestion of a 12 month term deposit as well as your wishful thinking analysis both lack an assessment and consideration of RISK. It assumes that it is a certainty the trade will go your way, and at the desired level of returns.
It also looks at the FX cross in isolation ignoring major events events unfolding around it that will most certainly have an impact on it but that's a debate for a different time if you stop hiding.
I have an "idea". Instead of only putting up £7,500 for this trade, why not throw £75,000 at it, or even better liquidate all your assets and throw £7,500,000 at it. Add some leverage into the mix and now you are talking some meaningful numbers. At a certain 25pc return, why not? Who could refuse?
You would refuse, as every rational person out there would refuse because of something called……….RISK.
The dreadful suggestion of a 12 month term deposit as well as your wishful thinking analysis both lack an assessment and consideration of RISK. It assumes that it is a certainty the trade will go your way, and at the desired level of returns.
It also looks at the FX cross in isolation ignoring major events events unfolding around it that will most certainly have an impact on it but that's a debate for a different time if you stop hiding.
So wat would u reccommend investing in mele.
It's very easy to pick holes, much harder to fill em
It's very easy to pick holes, much harder to fill em
Ah, what a surprise, you show up at the same time as the sick mind who created you.
I'm shocked I tell you, truly and utterly shocked.
I'm shocked I tell you, truly and utterly shocked.
I'm shcked cause it's snap.
I said the same thing. Lol.
I'm shocked I was like u. Lololololololol. U r crackers.
Tell us wat wonerful ideas u have.
Make predications. Its wen it matters
I said the same thing. Lol.
I'm shocked I was like u. Lololololololol. U r crackers.
Tell us wat wonerful ideas u have.
Make predications. Its wen it matters
Give it up mate, this routine has stop being amusing long ago. It's just too sick to be funny.
Was thinking that if the GBP:ZLO goes the other way and ends up at 1:6, then it's get out time. So in round numbers putting down 37500 GBP and getting back 30000 for a loss of 7500 if totally wrong.
However if you mean something like the following then I'm up to knee height in risk but I have looked at it:
To use an example .
http://www.getinbank.pl/produkt/lokaty/84-lokaty-terminowe-zlotowe,84p.html
Let's say I could get 48 months of that.
Could the bank go completely bust with depositors getting zero returns, despite guarantees made.
Could a radical government sequestrate foreign depositors holdings?
Could the country be invaded? Or some other scenario which means nil return, such as even dying in the next 3 years.
If when you talk of risk what you mean is something else, then yes, it's way over my head Menelaus, but thanks for the input.
However if you mean something like the following then I'm up to knee height in risk but I have looked at it:
To use an example .
http://www.getinbank.pl/produkt/lokaty/84-lokaty-terminowe-zlotowe,84p.html
Let's say I could get 48 months of that.
Could the bank go completely bust with depositors getting zero returns, despite guarantees made.
Could a radical government sequestrate foreign depositors holdings?
Could the country be invaded? Or some other scenario which means nil return, such as even dying in the next 3 years.
If when you talk of risk what you mean is something else, then yes, it's way over my head Menelaus, but thanks for the input.
Yeah bongo, you figured it out all on your own you didn't need my help, the real risk is in martians invading and FX trading gets suspended for a couple of days. I wouldn't worry too much about dying, I hear you can convert your fiat to angel wings right at the pearly gates, including your 25pc returns.
You seem to be making the numbers up as you go along, and your analysis is so laughable and shallow I wouldn't know where to begin. So I won't be bothered to begin. ALL amateur investors think that losing money on their trade idea is an outlier until they actually have to book the losses. They find out the hard way, I hope you don't.
Anyone tying up this kind of money in an FX trade, with a what now seems a four year view, based on this kind of superficial and rather childish analysis has more money than brains. Which in essence is a good thing, that means you are very rich.
Good luck and for heaven sakes take a few minutes to ask yourself the question what will the euro look like during the duration of your punt. Will is stay the same, will it exist in a different form, will it even exist at all, and how the different scenario's impact your cross. This way hopefully you can start discounting for real risk, not getting hit by a car as you cross the street sometime in the next four years.
You seem to be making the numbers up as you go along, and your analysis is so laughable and shallow I wouldn't know where to begin. So I won't be bothered to begin. ALL amateur investors think that losing money on their trade idea is an outlier until they actually have to book the losses. They find out the hard way, I hope you don't.
Anyone tying up this kind of money in an FX trade, with a what now seems a four year view, based on this kind of superficial and rather childish analysis has more money than brains. Which in essence is a good thing, that means you are very rich.
Good luck and for heaven sakes take a few minutes to ask yourself the question what will the euro look like during the duration of your punt. Will is stay the same, will it exist in a different form, will it even exist at all, and how the different scenario's impact your cross. This way hopefully you can start discounting for real risk, not getting hit by a car as you cross the street sometime in the next four years.
Just for the record, I've ended up buying an ETF ( SPOL.L ) at 13.26.
Plan at the moment is to hold it until 2016 approximately.
No term deposits or hard currency.
Thanks for all the input.
Plan at the moment is to hold it until 2016 approximately.
No term deposits or hard currency.
Thanks for all the input.
bongo, now I'm really confused.
Wasn't your whole premise based on the zlotych strengthening?
As you know, this ETF tracks the performance of the MSCI Poland Index by investing directly in shares of listed companies trading there with market capitalization within the top 85pc of the Polish equity market.
How does a stronger zoltych benefit Polish exports and hence companies listed there? Doesn't a stronger zoltych make foreign investment in Poland, and their equity market, more expensive?
Plus, this is a fairly new ETF (I think since the start of last year) and so far the "returns" have been swimming in red, not to mention that nasty 3/4pc management fee. The other issue you need to bring into your thinking re:Poland as high growth (yes, I know, most analysts have them near the top of their list along with Australia) is the impact on Poland's trade surplus not only from a slumping economy is europe (their major trading partner) and globally but also in case some peripheral EZ countries go back to their own currencies (which in my mind is inevitable). I believe then that Polish trade will take a hit as they would have to compete with some countries that all of a sudden have a greatly devalued currency.
Last but not least, as you know this fund is managed by BlackRock and I hate the basterds……..but that's just a personal bias.
Wasn't your whole premise based on the zlotych strengthening?
As you know, this ETF tracks the performance of the MSCI Poland Index by investing directly in shares of listed companies trading there with market capitalization within the top 85pc of the Polish equity market.
How does a stronger zoltych benefit Polish exports and hence companies listed there? Doesn't a stronger zoltych make foreign investment in Poland, and their equity market, more expensive?
Plus, this is a fairly new ETF (I think since the start of last year) and so far the "returns" have been swimming in red, not to mention that nasty 3/4pc management fee. The other issue you need to bring into your thinking re:Poland as high growth (yes, I know, most analysts have them near the top of their list along with Australia) is the impact on Poland's trade surplus not only from a slumping economy is europe (their major trading partner) and globally but also in case some peripheral EZ countries go back to their own currencies (which in my mind is inevitable). I believe then that Polish trade will take a hit as they would have to compete with some countries that all of a sudden have a greatly devalued currency.
Last but not least, as you know this fund is managed by BlackRock and I hate the basterds……..but that's just a personal bias.
managed by BlackRock and I hate the basterds
That made me smile. Is it a grudging admiration for a successful company like Tesco's that everyone loves to hate, or that they are cùnts.
The ETF is a punt - the hope or logic is that over the next 3-4 years some of the polish diaspora will return from EU perimeter countries with their new language and other skills and their work ethic and need the services including banking of their home country. Time will tell.
That made me smile. Is it a grudging admiration for a successful company like Tesco's that everyone loves to hate, or that they are cùnts.
The ETF is a punt - the hope or logic is that over the next 3-4 years some of the polish diaspora will return from EU perimeter countries with their new language and other skills and their work ethic and need the services including banking of their home country. Time will tell.
My hard on for them is strictly professional and fully deserved.
Contrary to what some think on here despite clarifying it several times, I'm not in investment banking nor do I manage other people's money, I'm in mergers & acquisitions (US market and more recently Asia as well). Believe me it's tough enough just to manage my own money, I don't need additional headaches. Financing for a lot of the deals we put together not surprisingly comes from the big banks, investment houses and some wealth and hedge funds. That's why it was utterly laughable when clowns on here were throwing a hissy fit when I posted I was having dinner with Seth Klarman in NYC. My job *is* to have dinner for him and convince him to keep providing financing for the deals we put together especially now that credit has become a lot tighter. In fact, Seth and I developed a bit of a friendship beyond a professional relationship because we share a common passion that I never discuss on here…….American thoroughbred racing.
A few years ago, the Blackrock gang managed to scuttle one of my biggest deals but worse than that, despite signing a confidentiality agreement, they used some of the information we provided to make moves in the market and gain from it. I don't even bother contacting them any more.
Good luck with your punt and don't let anybody tell you otherwise……..we're all punting, it's just that some of us are honest enough to admit it.
Contrary to what some think on here despite clarifying it several times, I'm not in investment banking nor do I manage other people's money, I'm in mergers & acquisitions (US market and more recently Asia as well). Believe me it's tough enough just to manage my own money, I don't need additional headaches. Financing for a lot of the deals we put together not surprisingly comes from the big banks, investment houses and some wealth and hedge funds. That's why it was utterly laughable when clowns on here were throwing a hissy fit when I posted I was having dinner with Seth Klarman in NYC. My job *is* to have dinner for him and convince him to keep providing financing for the deals we put together especially now that credit has become a lot tighter. In fact, Seth and I developed a bit of a friendship beyond a professional relationship because we share a common passion that I never discuss on here…….American thoroughbred racing.
A few years ago, the Blackrock gang managed to scuttle one of my biggest deals but worse than that, despite signing a confidentiality agreement, they used some of the information we provided to make moves in the market and gain from it. I don't even bother contacting them any more.
Good luck with your punt and don't let anybody tell you otherwise……..we're all punting, it's just that some of us are honest enough to admit it.
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