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20 Jul 12 09:49
Date Joined: 03 Feb 05
| Topic/replies: 6,745 | Blogger: Menelaus's blog
The ECRI US recession call was confirmed by economic data releases this week. The US June advance retail sales printed at an appalling  -0.5pc on the headline against expectations of +0.2pc. This was the third consecutive monthly miss in a row (which constitutes confirmation) and the sharpest since Dec 2008 when everything was collapsing. The last 25 out of 27 times the second derivative dropped this sharply, the US economy was in recession. The all important Philly FED index released yesterday was another disaster, printing negative for the third consecutive month, printing at -12.9, and hugely missing expectations of -8.0. The vital "employees" subindex collapsed from +1.8 to -8.4.  Remember this is a diffusion index so the rate of deterioration is accelerating.

In Germany, business conditions worsened for the third consecutive month, with the key expectations index dropping from -16.9 in June to -19.6 this month. The Spanish bank rescue plan is in shambles, Italy is in recession, Spain and Greece firmly in the grasp of depression. In the UK, the all important construction output dropped 6.3pc despite an extra working day and overall growth has come to a standstill at 0.2pc despite increasing doses of fiat morphine injected into the banks by the BoE.

China is hard landing with GDP growth printing at 7.6pc, the lowest rate since March 2009. The rate of growth as reported by China's central planners could in fact be a lot worse as electricity use in China has plummeted which a lot of economists (Pettis) use as a proxy for measuring economic activity.

Japan is a complete mess, I'll leave it at that.

All in all, the global economic picture looks dire. I don't think this is priced in the markets, as every piece of bad economic news so far has been dismissed by optimism that more money printing is coming. It is, just not now. The master money printer, the chap who controls the printing of fiat that buys Oil in the basement of the Marriner Eccles building, has his balls caught in a vice at the moment. Brent over $100 supported by ever more loud geopolitical tensions, corn, wheat and soybeans price exploding because of the American drought and a US election coming up have taken his trigger happy finger off the "print to infinity" button at the moment. Besides, he doesn't get to speak again until July 31 and no leaks through Hilsenrath so far, so it seems very unlikely a money printing announcement is in the offing at the end of the month.

Going short the S&P now.

Reverse position when Bernanke stops jawboning and actually does push the button as the market will rally for a few months.

Then it's over.
Pause Switch to Standard View It's time to go short, here's why:
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Report Whippet July 20, 2012 5:57 PM BST
how exactly do you "short the S&P now" when you repeatedly tell people that you can't make money unless you "take positions for less than 30 seconds". or is it one rule for you and one rule for everyone else?

29 Feb 12 19:06 Joined: 03 Feb 05 | Topic/replies: 1,593 | Blogger: Menelaus's blog
You should have asked me yesterday.
I loaded up on March 17 QQQs 62s at 24 cents this morning.
Feel free to keep track of this trade and report back."

A week later it hit 0.00.

I must say though thanks for posting up your latest trade. You have such a knack of getting it completely wrong that you could almost set your watch by it. We can all now oppose this trade and make loads of dosh. awesome. Laugh
Report chatlame July 20, 2012 6:54 PM BST
Menelaus is a real professional in his field (touring theatres - just kidding), but his
statistics regarding trading doesn't impress.

It's unfortunate that we don't have Carl Icahn on this forum (?), so we could get some good tips.
Report Eeternaloptimist July 20, 2012 8:40 PM BST
There is a lot to agree with in Melly's post in my view and not a personal insult in sight. I need a lie down.
Report charlatan July 20, 2012 10:46 PM BST
Reverse position when Bernanke stops jawboning and actually does push the button as the market will rally for a few months.

Then it's over.

so the next one is the last button?
Report Eeternaloptimist July 20, 2012 11:39 PM BST
Or the one after that if the next one doesn't lead to collapse. Then if that one doesn't lead to get the picture. You won't get predictions out of Melly. Two years ago he guaranteed a tsunami of inflation within 3-6 months and built a huge boat. 6 months after that ebay was swamped under a tsunami of wood for sale.
Report Eeternaloptimist July 20, 2012 11:44 PM BST
Consequently he now sits around a cauldron all day demanding toe of toad, rat scrotums and unicorn pecker so he can tell you what the future holds. Needless to say the rats in his bedsit sidled out of the front door when he wasn't looking with their cases hiding their bread baskets.
Report Mrben July 21, 2012 6:55 AM BST
based on mellys record, the bell has been rung for the  mother of all rallies!!!!!

remember folks- this dunderhead SOLD OUT  at the absolute bottom of the GFC!!!Dow was  circa 7000.

now he recommends selling out again.

this clueless mug has  has only one opnion- seel, get short.

His interminably bitterness stems from the fact that he has been mostly short stocks, indicies, the usd and long gold.

All of which have been total losers.Melly could claim gold profits but at some point you have to ring the till and'm betting if he did make a profit he lost it 1000 times over on everything else.

Melly says  SEEEEELLLLLLLL. its time to BUY!Devil
Report Eeternaloptimist July 21, 2012 4:23 PM BST
Did he really advise a sell with the Dow circa 7000? LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh

Now that has to hurt. I can see why he is so combustible.
Report Menelaus July 23, 2012 10:27 AM BST
It's a shame my post got buried under psychopathic rants and turd droppings from the halfwit cartel, some of the nice chaps on here could have made some serious money.

Oh well, better luck next time Grin
Report Mrben July 23, 2012 10:39 AM BST
who said we did'nt make any profit  melly? Do you think we are waited with baited breath for YOU to tell us which way the market will move?CrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazy

you have the most misplaced ego in the world.

your a talentless guesser.
Report Menelaus July 23, 2012 10:57 AM BST
I would have to agree. The 1,000 word "here's why" post was strictly a guess using your favorite "pull-finger-out-of-arse" method, kind of like this:

Mrben     18 May 12 14:24

Go facebook
Go facebook
Go facebook
Go facebook
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Go facebook
Go facebook

Report Mrben July 27, 2012 11:44 PM BST
this will go down as joke thread of the year.

lets take a quick look at mellys reasoning

june advance retail sales

philly fed index

germany business conditions

china hard landing

japans a mess

bernake jawboning.

According to melly these things just suddenly appeared and were a reason to short the markets.

THIS IS A MASSIVE DEMONSTRATION AS TO WHY YOU ARE A CLUELESS IDIOT.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The market dropped but wait then rallied 400+ points.

Now how can that be? Surely all the reasons melly listed above still exist?

If in fact they were what made the market fall- how did the market then rise to a point past and higher than where melly said it would fall????????????????????????????ConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfusedConfused

thats just not possible is it?

What you did melly was an utter fluke and confirms you are a broke and angry hasbeen.Someone who never made it.A theoretical dunderhead.

All claims to you having "intellect" were voided by this moronic thread.

You have accused others of taking random walks, yet YOU are a clear random walker.The king of random walkers it would seem.You doing nothing more than punting the markets.You have no idea why it went down OR why it went up. You just guessed.

Pure and utter straight out gambling.

I wont bother explaining why the markets did what they did, or how I knew  when the dow opened down 225 that there would be a rally  within a few days.Your just too damn stupid to take it in.

But by all means take the 50$ you made and  punt it again.

my god , no wonder you a penniless delusion loser.
Report RioGrande July 29, 2012 9:19 PM BST
Report RioGrande July 29, 2012 9:19 PM BST
Report RioGrande July 29, 2012 9:19 PM BST
Report RioGrande July 29, 2012 9:19 PM BST
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