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21 Jun 12 06:53
Date Joined: 25 Oct 03
| Topic/replies: 5,929 | Blogger: Mrben's blog
Last night Ben Bernake  stated that the Fed stood by with measures for QE 3 if necessary.
  Typical BB double  dutch.Reminds me of a 15yo virgin- one day I will come across with the goods, but not yet.Whoops

I will go on record as saying the chances of QE 3 are almost zero.There is no need with US economy on  a steady as she goes path into the next election.

  Its off the table for the foreseeable future.It may happen should there be a catastrophy, but as things stand, there is little chance.

  Inflation is soo low, employment  stablising to going up and the worst is well behind the US economy.

  No QE 3.

over to you mellyhead.Angry
Show More
Report Menelaus June 21, 2012 8:30 AM BST
Why did you bother "rephrasing" what you read in the financial section of your daily rug? You could have cut & pasted and save yourself a lot of time.

Inflation is soo (sic) low? I say your clueless. If you think I'm wrong, post your analysis and prove it.

Employment stablising (sic) to going up?  I say this isn't just wrong, it's plainly idiotic. If you don't think so, post your analysis and prove me wrong.

The worst is behind the US economy? This is so much worse than idiotic, I don't even have a word for it. Post your analysis and prove me wrong.

No QE 3? I say the FED never stopped printing, and are doing so to this very day, it's just that they don't bother baptizing their actions as QE 3 for clueless lemmings like you. The FED announced extending Operation Twist yesterday, perhaps the daily rag your are regurgitating didn't cover that part, or you perhaps there's a simpler explanation. You haven't a clue what Operation Twist really is.  If you think I'm wrong about the FED's easing actions, post your analysis and prove it?

Sorry benny the clown, "I read this in the newspaper so it must be true" doesn't count as analysis.

Take your time.
Report Mrben June 21, 2012 8:54 AM BST
pretty standard reply from you melly.

You claim I read  that in the paper, your is simply the opposite view, therefore by definition the same.

Your just criticizing yourself by default.

Now carefully try to work out my post.

take your time.Cry
Report Menelaus June 21, 2012 9:43 AM BST
I guess we don't get to see that "brilliant" analysis, hey benny the clown?

I didn't think we would.

Report Mrben June 21, 2012 1:38 PM BST
I'm sorry- what is the point of your latest post?Confused
Report Eeternaloptimist June 23, 2012 2:15 PM BST
My tuppence for what it is worth:

The fantasy of the good ship America pulling away from danger will continue until after the election. After Obama gets his second term that is when we are most likely to see the next bout of QE following on from a more honest appraisal of where they really stand. As things are, low inflation for an economy which owes so many trillions and counting by the day isn't perceived to be a good thing so that on its own makes further monetary expansion almost certain. Given we are in an election year and the efforts they have gone to in order to present an image of robustness the employment statistics are very revealing.

My personal view is that America remains in a dark place with a lot of effort going into shining artificial light to create an illusion.
Report Muqbil June 23, 2012 3:00 PM BST
Anyone who believes/ suggests the US economy is anything other than a putrid stinking rotten mess has to be part of the whole charade of keeping the show on the road?

Though I do strongly suspect Mrben's opening post was tongue in cheek?
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR June 24, 2012 2:54 AM BST
Stop focussing on the developed markets, and start tracking/investing in the emerging markets ?
I believe the current crisis is creating a material realignment of capital flows into the latter. You could say a new paradigm of world investing is slowly but surely evolving, faster now than ever before ?
If there ever is to be the required growth in the world to finance/ to clear the current debt overhang, it must surely come from the emerging markets taking over as the primary drivers of the world economy ?
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR June 24, 2012 3:02 AM BST
Also, particularly since the latest crash in 2008, does anybody really continue to think that the sharpest minds, the best innovations are still being created from within the US ?
Are those days well and truly gone ?
Report Menelaus June 24, 2012 9:43 AM BST
Perhaps they read newspapers upside down in Australia which might explain why benny the clown is confused again.

The FED just slashed US growth forecasts to between 1.9pc and 2.4pc, compared to precious estimates of between 2.4pc and 2.9pc.

So the central bank itself is telling us the US is not in recovery, only benny the clown thinks they are.

And if anyone with a half a brain bothered to look up the deflator they are using for their GDP model, they'd be able to clearly see that real US growth is NEGATIVE.

And let's not even go down the road of looking at PMIs, ISMs, Durable Goods, Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence, Consumer Credit, Unemployment, Trade Deficit, Case Schiller and other data that, although heavily massaged, send the same message.

Or the more revealing Employment data (yes, I said employment, not unemployment - I always look at the least fudged number), Port Traffic, Rail Traffic and the all important Petroleum Distillates data.

benny the clown's first post was not tongue in cheek, he just decided to drop another turd on the forum. Haven't you gotten used to in by now? Laugh
Report bongo June 24, 2012 10:19 AM BST
I've posted this before elsewhere but still think it's interesting:
USA Federal Budgets, tn of USD   
    Expenditure Receipts
2011    3.82    2.17
2010    3.46    2.16
2009    3.52    2.10
2008    2.98    2.52
2007    2.73    2.57

The 2012 figures may come in slightly better than 2011, but taking the 2011 figures in isolation spending 1.65 tn more than you receive, without printing money, would have to deliver about an 11% growth in the US's approx 15tn USD economy to generate the extra wealth for 1 year. And that's assuming you could go up to the US public, thank them for their hard work, and ask them to repay all of the extra to the Fed. Realistically, the US public might resort to arms if Federal tax rates went above 50% on average.
These figures are not sustainable, not even close, without printing the majority of the difference between expenditure and receipts.
And some people think that you could finance the gap entirely by borrowing? There aren't enough lenders out there prepared to invest surely.

Haven't looked at state spending, just Federal, so can't comment if they are doing well or badly at balancing their expenditure and receipts.
Report Menelaus June 24, 2012 12:45 PM BST
Great post bongo.

State (and municipal) budgets are in a worse mess than the federal budget. The list of bankrupt states is long but the crown jewels are Illinois and California (a state whose economy would rank 8th in the world on a stand alone basis).

Which brings me to another point.

Who is buying the debt of these bankrupt states when as recently as two years ago they were using IOUs to pay their state employees and vendors? Why is there no problem all of a sudden finding buyers for their debt when in fact their fiscal situation has actually gotten worse? Why is there no mention or debate on this in US main street media outlets, but rather the subject of state bankruptcies has fallen off everyone's radar screen?

Why hasn't Meredith Whitney's prediction of a tsunami on municipal bankruptcies and billions in defaulting loans in 2011/12 come true?

If you'll looking for the answer just look at the FED's balance sheet under "other assets". That's why I laugh when idiots on here are posting that the FED is not printing. They are, they never stopped and never will, it's just that they don't have to tell you about it.

Seth Klarman, one of my sharpest clients, goes further than that. He is asking the question how can the USG inject nearly $250bn into new government sponsored programs/initiatives *without* this amount reflected in the Treasury's "outflow accounts"? Did Geithner discover this money under his pillow or is the FED printing surreptitiously and providing "stimulus" that the USG finds politically impossible to provide?

They print because they can.......without fear because they are above the law. In fact, they are the law. Lemmings who think otherwise still have their eyes closed.
Report Mrben June 25, 2012 3:35 PM BST


Seth Klarman, one of my sharpest clients,

Boston-based Hedge Fund Baupost Group LLC, headed by star Manager Seth Klarman, manages $23 billion using a value investing philosophy, including $2.96 billion in U.S.-traded equities per its latest March 2012 quarter filing with the SEC on Friday. He has generated over 20% compound annual returns for his investors, and was ranked fifth in an article by the Financial Times in generating the most net gains at $12.5 billion for his investors since fund inception. In the crisis of 2008/09, while most hedge funds lost assets, Baupost managed to double its assets by focusing on corporate bonds. Seth Klarman's investment methodology is detailed in his book "Margin of Safety" that sells on Amazon for $2,400.

this guy takes advice from melly.CrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazy

you poor deluded twit.Do you actually think anyone would believe that? Just how stupid are you?ConfusedConfusedConfusedConfused

get back into your porsche and start worrying about the cost of an evening meal.- what an idiot.Cry
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR June 25, 2012 9:30 PM BST
Will you be buying Seth's book Mr Ben ?.
Imagine how much more money you could be making than you are, if you read it .
Maybe even as much as Menelaus is ?
Report Eeternaloptimist June 26, 2012 12:56 AM BST
Seth has a book? I expect Menelaus will have penned the intro. At the very least. Perhaps he will send us all signed copies. Signed by menelaus of course. Who cares if it is signed by Seth?
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR June 26, 2012 1:13 AM BST
Of course the mere fact that somebody feels the need to sell the book on ebay, raises the question as to how valuable it was to them in the first place. Couldn't have made them all that large an amount of money presumably.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR June 26, 2012 1:20 AM BST
Sorry just noted the book is for sale on Amazon, not ebay.
Big difference.
Report Mrben June 26, 2012 2:32 AM BST

I wonder if the book mentions seth's "advisors" IMAHO!

"yes we used melly corp. the mergers and acquisition specialists from London. We have lunch regularly at per se in New York where we spend time viewing the betfair forums."WhoopsWhoopsWhoopsWhoopsWhoopsWhoopsWhoopsCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazy

fk off melly.
Report Mrben July 14, 2012 7:39 AM BST
BB confirms this week- no QE3.

Right againLoveTongue Out
Report Menelaus July 14, 2012 10:34 AM BST
STFU you halfwit, we're up to QE6 and counting by now, just because you are so clueless and the daily rag you read doesn't cover it, we shouldn't have to tip-toe around your turds on here every day.

You don't believe me? What the hell was QE lite, operation twist, extending twist and currency swaps.

What? You don't even know what they are!!!! That explains it.
Report Eeternaloptimist July 14, 2012 2:08 PM BST
Where is the tsunami Melly?
Report bongo July 15, 2012 10:06 PM BST
Readable summary of the US Federal Budget three-quarters through their 2012 fiscal year .

It's appalling - the writer has gone for the optimistic headline, but the rest of the data is all doom I'm afraid. A government that in 9 months has spent 2.7tn and had receipts of 1.8 tn must have a lunatic in charge and lunatics to feed him. Andrew Jackson is turning in his grave right now. You'd have to be mad to lend to a government that was spending like this, but there are still some takers for their bonds. I'd like to see some of them interviewed as to why they went for US bonds when they could have built a palace, bought some mineral rights, invested in companies extracting drinking water from the air, or any number of other things with their hard-earned.
Report Menelaus July 15, 2012 10:44 PM BST
It's worse than that, waaaaay worse than that.

The article only scratches the surface and makes good reading for the numbskull "we'll muddle through" crowd who never reads below the headline, nor cares or knows enough to question anything. It conveniently doesn't mention their "off balance sheet" liabilities. The piling up GSEs losses,the non-performing and piling up FHA loans, the non-performing USG guaranteed student loans. Pile on top of this their mountain of debt on the books of their States and Municipalities, the debt they intentionally pushed onto to States (Obamacare) to obscure their debt picture, and then add their massive federal "unfunded" liabilities (social security) and then you just might begin to see the extend of the problem.

Thanks for posting it anyways.

This is not a problem, it's a predicament without a solution.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR July 15, 2012 11:24 PM BST
You can't just stop spending immediately.
Just turn off the tap.
You have to try to manage it down.
Do you think they're not even trying to do that either ?
They are carrying on willfully overspending and damning the consequences ?
Are they all stupid and/or corruptly lining their own pockets ?
It's one thing for a few greedy bonus driven bankers on Wall St to overdo things, but to extrapolate that into a mass feeding frenzy by all in position of power and influence. Isn't that a bit too far fetched ?.
A bit too much like a John Grisham novel.
Report Eeternaloptimist July 16, 2012 12:04 AM BST

I think they are like rabbits in the headlights. Nobody likes to think of themselves as being impotent. The most honest thing I ever heard of a politician saying was Harold Wilson when apparently he said that about the only thing he could control was the colour of the wallpaper in 10 Downing Street. We demand that they do something. So they do something. It may not be the right thing but they are doing something. So like The Great Oz they pull this lever and that lever and then they pull other levers. Of course nobody knows what the levers do but that isn't the point. They are busy idiots. The world is run by busy idiots.

We see it all the time. This man or that man must be paid tens of millions because they are the best of the best, captains of industry, masters of the universe and you never see them interviewed until the shiit hits the fan. Because when you do get to see them they appear what they are which is just ordinary people without particularly extraordinary minds. Bob Diamond was the latest in a long line. Similarly with politicians. You don't get to the top of the greasy pole by being the wisest, the purest or the best. The man who gets to the top is most often the bastaard who knifed the best men on his ascent and then got lucky.

The fundamental disagreement which me and Melly seem to have is that I don't without good reason ascribe to malice aforethought that which can be ascribed to idiocy. There is far more of the latter even in this world. Look at Melly.
Report Eeternaloptimist July 16, 2012 12:05 AM BST
So in short that was like the old joke about the man who asks the Irishman for directions and he says, "well if I were you I wouldn't start from here".
Report bongo July 16, 2012 12:06 AM BST
Hello FAFH, here's the simplistic answers:
You can't just stop spending immediately. True - but you can match spending to income. All the extra spending and all the reduced tax takes since the last balanced budget in Bush's first term can be analysed. Then use the powers granted by the electorate to reduce the spend and up the income.
Just turn off the tap.
You have to try to manage it down.
Do you think they're not even trying to do that either ? Yes - they're not even trying. 2012 spending is higher than 2011. Who's idea was that? Millions of people still getting annual Cost of Living increases in their entitlements for example
They are carrying on willfully overspending and damning the consequences ? Yes. Getting elected is the only desired consequence
Are they all stupid and/or corruptly lining their own pockets ? Neither. Some corruption of course. The issue is that governments are reactive not proactive. It only needs a small recession for tax revenues to dip again, spending to rise again ( see Menelaus's list of unfunded commitments ) and foreign and domestic lenders to find somewhere more sensible to invest.
It's one thing for a few greedy bonus driven bankers on Wall St to overdo things, but to extrapolate that into a mass feeding frenzy by all in position of power and influence. Isn't that a bit too far fetched ?. No - if you're a voter you have power and influence. Collectively voters who are paid from the public purse want the spending frenzy to continue. And no candidate is going to admit in public that can't happen. People should ask their candidates if they would default or print, as one or the other is inevitable now imv, but they're more interested in learning about who would deal with alien invasions the best.
A bit too much like a John Grisham novel.
Report Eeternaloptimist July 16, 2012 12:12 AM BST

Given its very nature democracy becomes doomed the moment those who are net recipients get to vote. Shiit. I'm turning into Melly. Doomed. We're doomed I thee. No representation without taxation.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR July 16, 2012 12:37 AM BST
Many thanks for your polite considered response. Nice to do business with you.
All very reasonable points you have made.
I will take them on board of course, but I do not think that even doing that will lead me to the certainty of Menelaus' conclusions that we are all shot to hell.
It's an irrational and totally unpredictable world we live in. Not just now. Always has been and always will be.
All I know personally is that pretty much all the biggest croppers I have had in my life have come when I was feeling most confident and certain of my course of action.
One thing I agree wholeheartedly with you one is the continual disappointment I have with politicians in general.
Seemingly can't live without them nor with them.
Report Menelaus July 16, 2012 6:05 AM BST
bongo, just to make things even, you should ask him what's happening with Simon Cowell. I know, I know, this has nothing to do with economics but that's his expertise and neither do his questions.


I've always said this, when you have no wealth to lose, then sticking your head in the sand (or locking yourself up in whatever sh1tty cubbyhole you live in) is perfectly acceptable. It's being stupid while pretending to understand that isn't.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR July 16, 2012 7:30 AM BST
Whilst I pretty much understanding all the economic points Menelaus is making, even if I certainly don't agree with them, sometimes he goes off into general subject tangents that just lose me completely.
This is one of them.
I believe the Simon Cowell he is referring to is some sort of Tv celebrity on a show called X-faxtor. Am I correct so far ?.
Well what this has to do with me I have no idea.
I don't watch any TV apart from some sport and news, and I don't even live in a country where UK tv programs of this type  are shown  ( at least I don't think so ).
So his reference to all this vis a vis me is all somewhat puzzling and I'm afraid just another sign of his peculiar type of madness.
We all know that being mad doesn't mean you are stupid per se. Many very bright people are absolutely bonkers. I think we may have a prime example of this on our hands here.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR July 16, 2012 7:34 AM BST
Does he perhaps, like the comments to Whippet, think I'm Mr Cowell's bum boy or something exotic like that ?
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR July 16, 2012 7:36 AM BST
You know a holiday romance or something.
I know I'm handsome and buff, but how does he know that ?
Do I even perhaps turn him on in some manner.
Exciting stuff all this is turning into.
Report Eeternaloptimist July 16, 2012 11:45 AM BST
It's yet another attempt at condescension which has blown up in his face.
Report Eeternaloptimist July 16, 2012 11:45 AM BST
It's funny how the most mad people are also the most certain in their convictions.
Report Mrben July 31, 2012 8:49 AM BST
Bernake speaks agin over the next two days.Another gab fest making empty "maybe's"

Media talking up the chances of a QE 3 announcement.Its a 100/1 shot for mine.
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