Pondering Gold

hows it looking at your place this morning melly?

must be a bit of a train wreck.

when you loaded all your gold bars into the minivan @ 1598 had panic set in?

tell the forum plz- who did you sell that gold to?? The indian family at the local 7/11 , so they could make jewellery with it?

by the way-I have no idea what tegretol is, but you seem to have an intimate knowledge of it.Is that your meds that I twigged you must be using so long ago?

I never realized the side effects of Tegretol were *that* severe. On the other hand, it's very likely you were born that way.

Hmmmm.........

1586 tonight- any left under those floorboards?

1566

melly melly melly- got any more floorboards to sell?

melly- you are THE BIGGEST LOSER

I'm trying to figure out which of my bullion is worth less toady. The bullion I bought at $400, the one at $500, the bars at $600 or the coins at $700. It gets pretty confusing after a while....


P.S. Up the dose on your medications, your fits are definitely getting a lot worse.

hahaahhahahaha

melly- you jack -off.

everyone knows you bought gold at 1680 and bought more at 1630.

you remain- the biggest loser.

Take your medication, go to sleep for a while.

You'll wake up just as stupid but at least the frothing at the mouth and your shaking will stop for a while.

Blogger: Menelaus's blog


If history is any indication, you may want to consider stocking female hygiene products (use your imagination) instead of chocolate. Far more sought after by the birds than chocolate when they are nowhere to be found on the (black)market.

says the man who bought gold @ 400

sorry you twit. Someone who has the mentality to  stockpile tampax in the face of a non existant danger is not someone who has the mentality to buy gold @ 400.

your a proven liar over and over melly.

a dumb and uneducated twit.

a small man with big delusions.

it is certain that outside this forum you  lead a sad and miserable life of the total loser that you are.

I don't have any interest in you two bickering like two bald men over a comb. The only question I have is to menelaus and it is to aks when you will make good on the following pledge from early April?

We have family over this weekend so I won't be able to do much of anything else but entertain. But I hope by early next week to post the reall story and analysis on the FED's easing intentions. Real analysis, not sh1t someone may have read in their daily morning rag and they regurgitate without really understanding.

Your write up (I refuse to call it analysis) is about to be shred to pieces and give me the pleasure of exposing your epic ignorance - yet again.

I look forward to your analysis.

Err I think he has posted it ( his views on the Fed and its policies and its " criminal" overlords) probably a 1,000 times since then.
Do you really want to punish us all by asking for it to be all regurgitated yet once again ?

Apologies. I occasionally dip into the forum. I read this particular thread with interest and it seemed strange that menelaus had posted numerous times without actually addressing the point raised of where he saw gold going from here and why. I presumed given the ongoing feud between the two that he hadn't done it elsewhere.

"it seemed strange that menelaus had posted numerous times without actually addressing the point raised"

nothing strange in this at all, melly never addresses or understands a point.

he's our village idiot.

To be fair to him if he bought gold at the prices he says then he is now a wealthy village idiot but that is the crucial question. There's a guy works down the chip shop swears he is Elvis and we can all be geniuses in retrospect. I was interested in his views going forward and how he sees things panning out.

I didn't realize that there was a "point raised" In this particular thread other than our resident village idiot claiming profits regardless which way moved for the day, up or down, never mind that I supposed to address it.

My post from 00.05 directly quoted you on what you described was going to be an "analysis" you were going to furnish us with and how it was going to shred your adversary. So I guess the point was raised by you and then left hanging in the air.

What are you bumbling on about mate?

What is it SPECIFICALLY you want to know? Ask your questions directly and clearly, you may have better luck getting an answer.

Why are you such an objectionable pricck with such an inflated sense of your own intellect?

Is that clear enough for you or would you like me to be clearer?

It took you five posts to finally ask nothing???

Did you hear little voices in your head giving you the answer, or did you take a detour through a kindergarten on the way home from cleaning the park toilets and some five year old gave you the answer?

melly- you are in permanent meltdown mode.I guess ripping up those floorboards to cash your gold in at a loss sent you over the edge. Either that or your just a plain fkwit.

Menelaus

Clearly your compehension skills are about as refined as your non existent wit. I asked you where you saw gold going from here and why? Rest easy though because you can remain an empty vessel more interested in evasion than clarification because the five year old you refer to made far more sense than you appear capable of.

I asked you where you saw gold going from here and why?


Instead of swatting you like a fly,  I'm going to take you by the hand and let you figure out the answer all on your own.

Create a graph of USG debt since Nixon abolished the gold standard. The X axis is TIME in years, from 1970 to 2022. The Y axis is trillions $$$$, from 0 to 20 trillion. The debt between 1970 and 2011 is ACTUAL, the debt for 2012 to 2022 is according to CBO projections. All these numbers are widely available on the internet.

Still with me?

Then create a graph of gold price since 1970. The X axis is years identical to the chart above, the Y axis is $200 to $5,000. The ACTUAL gold price between 1970 and 2011 is known. At this point you can not draw in the 2012 to 2022 gold price since it's an unknown.

Still with me?

Now overlap the two graphs, easy to do since the X axis is identical.

If you can fog a mirror you are now probably now sitting there like a dear in headlights because you just realized that the two graphs overlap with a six sigma correlation. Now project the price of gold graph from 2012 to 2022 following the USG debt graph, the part that was drawn with CBO projections. Congratulations, you just answered your own question.

And that's the "business as usual" scenario. This doesn't even reflect any surges in the price of gold due to a banking system collapse or loss of faith in fiat currency due to excessive printing.

A five year old could follow those instructions, could you?

correction: from $0 to $5,000

I don't see such a high correlation till at least 2005 or thereabouts.
No doubt the USG debt ceiling is clearly some sort of influencing factor on the price of gold, but it is not the only one.
To project future gold prices solely on this recent strong correlation with USG debt is imo falling into the trap of trying to artificially create causation, that is  to fit things to suit a pre-determined personal target.
Menelaus strongly believes that gold is going into the statosphere and will find all sorts of reasons and arguments to support this opinion.
But in the bottom line, that's all it is . A personal opinion, which could be as wrong as it's right.

Menelaus

I follow your logic perfectly and for what it is worth I agree with you. I don't see why you need to pick a fight with everybody to illustrate your point.

Perhaps the reason is as Fine As Frog Hair implies you have so much skin in the game that you become irrational when your view is challenged. Are you carrying too many eggs in one basket?

he doesn't have any eggs, he doesn't even have a basket.

Optimist, I am a "disagreeable priick" because I'm subjected to daily abuse from retards on here who couldn't tie their own shoe laces, and who post on a finacial forum without even knowing how money gets created.

It wasn't just logic you just followed, it was RAW NUMBERS coming from a 40 year trend. This time won't be different, unless the system totally breaks down in which case it will get a lot more worse.

Gold could go to ZERO tomorrow and wipe a $5,000,000 investment and it would mean nothing to me. In fact conceivably it could make me happier since I'd be passing my paper wealth and other hard assets over to my daughters in a hopefully post-crisis peaceful world. As you can see, since you seem to follow this forum, I do go through histrionics every time gold go up or down a few dollars, those who don't own it do.

Cue in more abuse from the down under halfwits 4....3....2.....

"in a hopefully post-crisis peaceful world"

*estimates based on anticipated up swing in unicorns and rainbows

"Cue in more abuse from the down under halfwits 4....3....2.....'

...1. you're an idiot melly!

Right on cue........

Eeternal
My point on Menelaus' gold price theory was a little bit more than just the influencing factor of Menelaus' personal position.
He presents the graph and the susequent deductions as if it is something that has not already been seen and considered by thousands of other sophisticated investors ( not just whether the few posters on here are fully aware of it - that is an irrelevancy).
He clearly is saying that he thinks there is really zero chance of the gold not performing as well in the future as in the past 10 years or so. Really ?. You don't think there is any chance at all that it might just drift sideways for many years now to compensate for the recent upsurges caused by the obvious recent abnormal crises ? Many serious analysts do and they may  be equally correct in forecasting that it has run out of steam. They are not all idiots from " down under " believe me.
If you timed everything perfectly and are sitting on gold at avg prices well below the 800 dollar mark then you are obviously sitting pretty and should be holding tightand/ or cautiously adding more. That is what Menelaus is claiming he has achieved, and who is to dispute that claim. A win win situation for him, and one which very much cause him to rationalise the purchase of even more gold at today's levels based on his USG debt correlation theory. Well done to him. But to enter at these current price points to build up new positions, just based on a straight line extrapolation of this graph, well I and many others are not supremely confident on that investment philosophy, not in the sense that it absolutely cannot fail to be worthwhile ?
Menelaus is as usual far too one eyed and too one way in his thinking. He allows no room for doubt or that other market forces greater than the ones he has identified may prevail.

more and more bizarre

Menelaus
18 May 12 12:55
Joined:
03 Feb 05
| Topic/replies: 1,906 | Blogger: Menelaus's blog

Optimist, I am a "disagreeable priick" because I'm subjected to daily abuse from retards on here

newsflash dkhead- YOU hurl more abuse than the rest of us combined.

you are subjected to it-BECAUSE you are an insufferable moron.No other reason.

and then this


n fact conceivably it could make me happier since I'd be passing my paper wealth and other hard assets

mmmmmmmmm "paper assets" by that I expect you mean paper money? The same paper money you claim is destined to be worthless????

"other hard assets " therby meaning paper assets are hard assets.

did you actually graduate melly? You command of sentence structure is appauling.

Right on cue the clowns from down under are piling in....if only predicting market movements was so easy.

Mrben 18 May 12 14:02 
more and more bizarre



Oh the sweet irony.....

froggy- did you not see the thread where melly heavily recommended  buying gold @ 1680 and if it went to 1630 to double up?

Not only the markets are a zero sum game, life in general is a zero sum game.

For every brilliant Australian like Steve Keen out there, there's a halfwit Australian like benny the clown to help balance the distribution around the mean.

It is profoundly shameful that he ended up on this forum posting his daily bullsh1t, the stench is overbearing.

you would be the ZERO in all those equations melly.

Somewhere in Australia Steve Keen is laughing his heart out......

(Not now of course, when he wakes up, sane people sleep this hour in Australia they don't stay up all night posting rubbish on a public forum)

Menelaus

Giving and receiving stick is part of the game. I get that and we indulge in it regularly on the politics forum. What I don't understand is why you would seek confrontation with someone you have had few if any previous dealings with and who asked you a perfectly reasonable question.

I appreciate that sometimes if you feel attacked on all sides that can promote a siege mentality but not everybody is out to get you and steal your secret stash of baked beans.

If true it does beg the question why you  are being attacked on all sides.

Frog

I should have said that on balance I agree with menealus position if not all of his rational. Paradoxically from my relatively limited knowledge of this game I'd agree with your point that there are few sure things. Sophisticated investors lose their shirts when they called something right. Just not at the right time. It puts you in mind of Pacino's inches speech in Any Given Sunday. There are far too many variables to be completely sure of anything.

What is interesting (and I'm sure very naive of me) is that I've noticed a pattern where maybe a couple of weeks before a central bank or government announce something the market seems to move the way it should in line with that announcement. Too many times to be coincidental but it begs the question why this isn't being looked at? Some people seem to be betting on pretty sure things.

Been happening for centuries I think.
Money makes money.
Power corrupts etc etc
All the usual cliches I'm afraid to say.

And the rich hardly ever face justice. Except on the end of a rope at the hands of the mob.

eOptimist, the last thing I need on here is another wise-guy telling me the meaning of life.

I found the question (after cut & pasting my older post) in your original post confusing. It seemed like you were asking for my analysis why the FED can't stop easing, although by that time the main exchanges on the thread focused around the price of gold.

I asked you to specifically state what you wanted to know.

As it turns out I was right because your question turned out to be "where is gold going and why", which is believe it or not, an entirely different discussion as to why the FED can't stop easing.

I have no idea what your background is but based on the contents of your recent posts on here, neither economics nor finance is one of them. So in the future, if you are interested in having me post my views on anything related to economics or finance, ASK A SPECIFIC QUESTION so I don't have to tip toe through the bullsh1t the down under clown crew carpet bomb the forum with daily to figure out what it is you are asking.

And last but not least, although the system is very complex with a lot of variables that doesn't preclude outcomes of being a certainty. As far as I know, here on planet earth an apple still falls to earth from a tree EACH AND EVERY TIME. It's called......gravity. In economics it's.....fractional reserve monetary system. When there's not enough organic growth to pay the coupon, the system collapses. Everything else is noise. Try and wrap your head around that.

As far as I know, here on planet earth an apple still falls to earth from a tree EACH AND EVERY TIME.

From what I have observed your certainty is one of your main problems. Most apples don't fall to earth from a tree. So not only are you wrong but spectacularly so. As Einstein once said, an intelligent man can explain a complex theory in a simple way. You have much to learn.

....may be so.....but evidently NOTHING from you.

There's nothing I hate more on here than pseudo-intellectualism.

Go back to the politics forum, where most apples don't fall to earth form a tree, they get gathered by mugs like you. Here on this forum, WHICH WAS MY WHOLE POINT that went over your pseudo-intellectual head, a monetary system without organic growth to pay the coupon collapses. Here, on Mars, in lala land where you live......EVERYWHERE.

Tell it to your therapist. Beaten by an apple picker. If only they just picked them up off the floor then you wouldn't be feeling so crushed right now would you? Rage menelaus. Rage against the dying of the light. When a man is as desperate to win as you so clearly are losing takes something away from him don't you think? Don't worry though. I'll put them in a box and keep them safe for you.

The Spanish call them cojones.

And since you quoted Einstein to lend "intellectualism" to your post, here's my favorite Einstein quote:

"The most powerful force in the universe is compounding interest"

Unlike you, Einstein understood how gravity works, and far more important, he understood how the monetary system works.

Try and see if you can wrap your little pseudo-intellectual head around that.....you might just learn something.

I'm not a pseudo anything. I'm just a simple apple picker who was struck by the wisdom of one of the most intelligent men who ever lived. If anybody is the pseudo intellectual it is yourself talking down to people, trying to baffle them and then turning purple when someone smacks you in the knackers with the simple bat of pure logic.

So tell me. How do you like those apples? I picked em myself. Gravity had little to do with it but it sure brought you down to earth with a bump didn't it?

At your next appointment I'd book a double session if I were you. You may be some time.

eeternaloptimist- great posts


you nailed the resident physco beautifully.

melly is as habitually offensive as he is ignorant.

It looks like I've managed to hook another halfwit on here.  The irony is, I wasn't even aiming for this mug, he was collateral damage.

As far as I know, here on planet earth an apple still falls to earth from a tree EACH AND EVERY TIME.



I hope you do better with some of your other punts or you will have to pawn your computer.

Getting hooked was easy, "unhooking" yourself will be the tough part.........

You'll have to excuse me. I'm eating a Granny Smith and it didn't fall off the tree.

Okay let's cut the cr@p and keep this real.

"Unhooking" yourself is impossible at this point.

Good luck trying though.

I'm onto a Golden Delicious now.

Head back to the Politics forum while there's still time mate.

The deeper you allow the hook in, the harder it will be for you to take it out.

I took the time to read some of of your stuff over there and I was rather surprised.

Verbose yes, pretty main stream views yes, not enough original thinking yes, but overall you seem to be on the right track on some issues.

You certainly didn't come across as the complete idiot you come across on here.

Move on, leave this economics stuff for others, nothing for you to see here.

This gets better and better. I'm supposed to be the one on the imaginary hook (how innovative of you when only about 1000 others have used that one previously) and yet you are the one scurrying around to other forums trying to pick up little tidbits of information. Are you always such an obsessive or does this side of you come out only when you are feeling the heat?

I'll tell you what. I've got a Pink Lady but I'm going to save her for tomorrow. You can wait in line.

Can't post much today, have to head to Heathrow this morning.

I didn't quite had to look hard, your stuff is all over the place over there. Angry posts, mainly "let's hang they rich" stuff, perhaps that's why you took a dislike to me so much.

I found your posts quite a contradiction to be honest. You could structure a sentence quite skillfully but the message was either childish or hollow. I need not go on further that when you were padding yourself on the back for the "apple always falls to the ground" thing when clearly it was a failed attempt by you to hide your faux pas from the previous post. The English was correct, the logic was school playground level. Quite the contradiction.

Your posts on the other forum follow pretty much the same pattern. You come on top of other posts preaching like a high priest, but the message is hollow. Not a single original idea on how to deal with today's key issue, that of the symbiotic relationship between bankers and politicians. Hanging them seems to be your solution. Angry stuff.

At any rate, you can stay or go back to politics, it really doesn't matter much. If you decide to stay, accept gravity for what it is, stop quoting things from Einstein trying to impress, ask specific questions so you can learn, and stop wanting to hang people it makes you look very angry. Which by the way explains the "rage" comments when I didn't as much raise my voice at you. You see the world through your angry eyes so to you everyone else must be "enraged" as well.

You have a lot to learn..........but that's what I'm here for. See you in a little over a week.

I hope those New Yorkers can handle this condescending British git.
Could get ugly.

Menelaus

Ssssshhhhhhhhhhhhh. When using the fishing line you should be aware that it is the fish which wriggles around. The fisherman stays in control.

gold just can't hold onto gains.

last week hit 1533 then up to 1596 this week.

down to 1563 last night.

store of value? fffffffffffffssssssssssssssssssssssss!!!!!!!!!!!!!

thread started almost 2 months ago.

today gold is 1549, down 72$.

recent low 1527.

many pundits now declaring gold is 'no longer a safe have'- no shitt sherlock!

remind me again melly- why is gold such a great investment?

fkn idiot.

I've only made a few trades on gold lately for little result. But am dirty as last night I had a sell order in at 1569 when it was 1572. it went up to 1580 so pulled the order. About an hour after I went to bed it plummeted. would have been a 40k plus result

Yeah, I get it, down $72 in two months, up $66 in a day. How did that work out for you?

gold back down  today. You clueless clueless mug melly.

Mrben 30 May 12 13:55 
thread started almost 2 months ago.

today gold is 1549, down 72$



Remind me again, how much is gold down since you started hyperventilating about gold?

remind me- how much gold did you buy @ 1680?

Probably more than you could afford to buy if you re-lived your miserable life, and saved every penny you ever made, 100 times over.

I have wealth to protect and my daughters' future to think about, not just a couple of thousand AUDs in an IG Index trading account.

Get it yet, clown?

I've had a beautiful few days on the gold rally.Thanks for asking

Of course you did, you always do.

Where I live we have a name for that, we call it CREDIBILITY STIGMA.

gold down to 1598.

melly seething- looks like he did'nt sell into the rally- AGAIN.

dumber than dog poo you are melly.

gold down to 1589.

will the recent lows be re tested on this next downward leg?

me  thinks so.

gold @ 1603- standby for the melly " i told you so" rant.

gold 1602. Ranges are getting even tighter.Gold has lost interest with investors after its dreadful performance over the last 12 months.

Only dunderheads are holding gold as a "store of weatlh" in these inflationless times.

gold in freefall tonight.Now 1583.

After several tight range days its down 35$ this session so far.

so much for the "store of wealth in turbulent times" claim. FFFFFFFFFFFFFFSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!

1568$$ 4.30 pm aussie time.

melly seething.

there goes the theory melly- another one you got wrong.

How low will it go is the question?

I just saw a guest on cnbc claiming the same old same old " in the second half of the year gold will  regain its safe haven status"

IMAHO- only the clueless believed the safe haven misinformation.

Silver down to $26.80.

Looks like J2 will be living at mums a while longer.

Gold is on the brink of a “violent downturn” and could even fall as low as $700 an ounce as the risk of deflation in developed economies grows and technical pointers turn bearish, one expert tells CNBC.


“Technical levels show us when the trouble is coming. Gold struggled at $1,700 and then at $1,600. If it breaks through the next key level of $1,500, which could be approaching soon, investors would start panicking and selling hard,” Yoni Jacobs, Chief Investment Strategist at Chart Prophet Capital said on Thursday.

Gold [XAU=  1569.6899    -4.71  (-0.3%)   ], which has fallen below $1,600 eight times in the past 10 months, is currently trading below the key 200-day and 300-day moving average of $1,650 and $1,670, respectively. The 300-day moving average has supported the bull market in gold since 2001, however this is no longer the case, he said.

oh dear melly

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47990167

Well, what can I say, when you get your economics knowledge from following CNBC and listen to "experts" who demonstrate about the same level of intelligence as an Egyptian mummy........you keep dropping turds on the forum.

The only "violent downturn" we are about to witness is your pants getting pulled down and receiving another spanking on here.

What's really laughable is not the sh1t you keep posting on here, it's your obsession with daily commenting about gold when you continue to demonstrate massive ignorance on how the gold markets even work. What a joke.
































































































Oh, wait, the joke was on me right? What you posted *was* a joke, I just didn't interpret it to be one. My bad benny the clown, I'm losing my touch, carry on with the show mate.

IMAHO!

Bill Gross is a big time contributor to cnbc, did'nt you just start an entire thread dedicated to him?

In any case, where the info comes from is irrelevant.If its right its right.

That's something you need to come to terms with dunderhead.

Bill Gross is a big time contributor to cnbc




Okay, I got that joke.

ar you saying that bill gross does not appear on cnbc regularly melly?

ar you saying that bill gross does not appear on cnbc regularly melly?

You gotta do something about your hands shaking.

you truely are an idiot melly.A babbling imbecile.

http://www.google.com.au/search?sourceid=navclient&aq=f&oq=bill+gross+pimco&ie=UTF-8&rlz=1T4ACAW_en___AU386&q=bill+gross+pimco&gs_upl=0l0l0l3990lllllllllll0&aqi=g5#q=bill+gross+pimco&hl=en&rlz=1T4ACAW_en___AU386&prmd=imvnslo&source=univ&tbm=vid&tbo=u&sa=X&ei=HlPsT-X9Aofeigf3jPjbBQ&ved=0CIQBEKsE&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.,cf.osb&fp=e4c9a6abbf65430d&biw=1536&bih=743

that link gives you dozens and dozens of bill gross's appearance on cnbc.

So "appearances" make one a "big time CONTRIBUTOR"?

No wonder you are confused benny the clown.

seth klarman will be disappointed with you melly, you are apparently unaware of who appears on cnbc.Can't you afford pay tv?



another  disaster you stepped into

And benny the clown throws the towel in and shouts......"hey, look over there"

gold 1572

silver 26.90

hows that 3% return looking today?

buy now and hold until after september and then sell.

buy gold and silver until end of september then sell

and why  plz max?

mrben. watch the seasons. buy now or hold on to what you have and buy more.

mrben. hold and buy watch the seasons.

mrben. i hope you and others took my advice.

Who's to say that gold wont do what it did in the last bull market?.last time it overshot by 150%,in a speculative bubble.
Reasons why it wont happen again?.If the stock market falls,wont they suggest a buy for gold e.g contra,defensive bolt hole.

The price of gold is what Ben Bernanke wants it be.

Everyone got that? His problem is not gold, his problem is OIL. 

The FED has been managing the precious metals markets in a very heavy handed and blatant way since Q3 2011. Because they have to and because THEY CAN……..with impunity.

If don't don't wrap your head around this construct and totally accept it, you have no business being in gold.

The price did what it did today to complete the illusion that he said QE when in fact he didn't. It would be "odd" if the S&P got ramped but PMs were left behind. There's no market now, just the illusion of one. He controls/owns it all. If you had any doubt and today's action didn't completely pull the veil back for you then you're not paying attention or have no business trading.

You also have no business being in gold if you are not accumulating physical. Those who own paper gold will one day find out that their gold is worth about the price of……PAPER.

Accumulate physical and put it away somewhere safe but WHERE YOU CAN ACCESS IT at all times. If you can't touch it at will, you don't own it. .

And wait until the day these feckers lose control. That day is not as far away as you think.

The power of exponents had the outcome predetermined from the outset. And central bankers know that. All they are doing now is transferring as much wealth as possible to their friends before this ponzi comes to a merciful end.

If you do all that, you just might be able to protect some of your wealth until the real thieves come after it. No, no, not those criminals breaking into your house with a crowbar, the real criminals………YOUR GOVERNMENT.

If and whwn all hell breaks loose, as he is predicting will happen sooner or later, I would like to know exactly where you will be sure to be able to access your physical gold and exactly how you will lquidate it safely to access funds to survive on.
Gonna make a good novel that's for sure.

They asked me how i did it, and i gave them the golden text just keep your light a shining a little ahead of the next. They copied all they could copy, but they could'nt copy my mind and i left them sweating and stealing a year and a half behind. Ha ha