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Mrben
01 Nov 11 03:57
Joined:
Date Joined: 25 Oct 03
| Topic/replies: 5,929 | Blogger: Mrben's blog
Followers of my "2 year trades" thread will already know my AUD and Rio trades are deeply in the green.

Now- lets take the AUD situation- its up lets say 200 pips in 2 days. A fantastic result in any traders book.
Heres my question, for traders and anyone who fancies themselves as a trader.

Would you, right now

a. move the stop down 200 pips to 1.10 and simply hold

b.move the stop to the entry point , thus avoiding a loss on reversal

c. take your 200 pip profit now.

d. move your stop into a profit making position  so as to  ensure that your profit does not disappear

e. Do nothing and wait for a move below parity as the original premise spelt out

f. Given that the AUD is on a short term downtrend, hold the position but take profits on any reversal.

g. Hold the position but not neccesarily to below parity.

h.go to the bottleo, buy 60 doz johonnie walker black, put them in your bedroom and pray for hyperinflation.

it will be interesting to see who has the courage to post. As no doubt the losers on this forum will be all over them.

   If you fancy yourself as a trader I encourage you to post a reply and ignore the losers.You could learn more by crystalizing your response than waiting and saying " oh yeah, thats what I would have done".

Melly- dont bother replying as everyone on the forum knows you lack the courage to put a number to anything.

  I will supply THE answer in a few days time. I will of course have the benefit of hindsight but that does not affect the correct strategy.
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Report Pastie November 1, 2011 8:01 AM GMT
C. The reasons being:

* The daily ema is at 1.0318 and the weekly 20ema is at 1.0366. In the short-term I would consider that there is likely to be a small bounce before another move down;

* For technical reasons the price needs to touch 1.06 to 1.065 and drop again to confirm a longer term downtrend;

* As you've summarised above it is a short-term downtrend. Short-term trends require short-term trades;

* AU has been in an up-trend for nearly 3 years. I'd want more confirmation of a downtrend before dipping my toes in!

However, in your favour are the issues in Europe. If traders are in the mood today then you might get your wish of another big leg down!
Report Menelaus November 1, 2011 8:48 AM GMT
Too bad those who followed your SELL SELL SELL shout when you first put it up went bust in the seven days following and before you decided to do a do-over. Better luck next time.

(I still don't know how your AUD short was even triggered when the entry point you posted was never hit, but let's not bother with trivial matters when it comes to the drivel you keep putting up here now shall we? )

You have truly single-handedly turned this forum into a badly acted tragicomedy.
Report Whippet November 1, 2011 12:44 PM GMT
e), because you would have to be a moron to bail out of a long term trade 2 days in. give up now if you aren't even able to have faith in the original reasons why you entered the trade.
Report Menelaus November 1, 2011 12:56 PM GMT
Whippet, Whippet, Whippet, what am I going to do with you ?!?!

"have faith in the original reasons why you entered the trade." You have got to be kidding me !!!

He doesn't even know that the trade that went against him and bankrupt him for seven days until the do-ever came along, reversed NOT because the markets finally clued-in that "*today* it was announced that price of ore fell" but because of the world's 8th biggest bankruptcy taking place, the bond market calling bullsh1t on the Merkozy EZ debt problem solution and Papandreou throwing the markets a live grenade with his referendum call (one by the way that the Greek constitution doesn't even allow to take place, something which I'm sure he must have known - in other words, he was trying to buy time for his government from collapsing with a bluff but the market who only pays attention to headlines at the moment got spooked)

Being massively ignorant doesn't mean you can't be massively lucky.
Report Mrben November 2, 2011 12:58 AM GMT
we need more  replies plz.

only melly will ridicule you- and who cares what he says?
Report Pastie November 3, 2011 9:06 AM GMT
Nice work Benny!
Report J2BLUE. November 4, 2011 4:57 PM GMT
E - You must have had your reasons to get in, and you backed it up with the money. If your conviction is still as strong you must surely wait to be proved right. It may reverse, but nothing goes straight up or straight down. I think AAPL had 5 serious corrections?
Report Mrben November 6, 2011 2:03 AM GMT
alright time to give.I'm only posting to keep the good faith with those who replied.

  The others who seem more interested in the tampax and bombshelters thhread are getting a free kick they don't deserve.

We all go through an educational system.No matter which country you go to school in the system is more or less the same.You are rewarded for the "right " answer. From the age of say 5 to somewhere between 16 and 23 ish you get rewarded for being right.
Remember that gold star the teacher would stick on your forehead for being "good"?

   It is incredibly difficult to overcome this indoctrination. Sub consciously we all want to be right.

  Many many people cannot  stand to be proved wrong in anyway.You get people who simply cannot think for themselves and for who the need to be right is extreme.Melly is such a person.

   These types are at the far end of the extreme.The need to be right  exceeds all logic, all alternatives and  most of reality.Even when clearly proven wrong by results they continue to argue they were right and that infact the end result did not really happen.These people are somewhat demented.

   In order to be a sucessful trader you must overcome this need. There is no need to be right, there is only a need to be profitable.

   Take the current situation where  $$$$ printing prevails.The " right" conclusion is inflation.Thats the right answer.The reality is- there is barely any inflation at all.Yet people will argue ad nauseum that hyperinflation will result.Of course they do because that is the "right" answer.

   Even if it eventually proved to be correct theres no profit in it.
   Starting to get the point.?

   In trading the only 2 things that count are profit and capital preservation.Thats it.

  Therefore all the above answers are correct except for h.Which only an idiot would consider.

   If you are losing in your trading  you will find that you are looking to be right as your primary motivator.Otherwise why are you letting winning trades become losing ones? Why won't you take profits or cut losses?
   If you find your self saying things like' I'll buy it once it breaks resistance" I'll take a profit once it gets back to the higher price it was two days ago" It SHOULD be going up/down" Why is'nt it rising/falling" . you will find yourself losing.

  There are countless trading opportunities every month, you just need to catch some of them.It is not the trades that are available that is the issue- its YOU.

Work on yourself as much as you stare at charts and you will find your trading improving.

   To those who actually posted and answer- I congratulate you. To those who did not- refer to the tampax/chocolates/liquor hyperinflation thread and stay there.
Report J2BLUE. November 6, 2011 5:02 PM GMT
The reality is- there is barely any inflation at all

Laugh
Report Menelaus November 6, 2011 6:29 PM GMT
I stopped reading at Mrben.
Report Mrben November 7, 2011 5:04 AM GMT
you cant stop reading my posts melly- I'll bet it keeps you up at night.

I challenge you to stop responding to them. Ill bet you all your AAPL shorts profits you cant stop.Neither can your disciple J2.I can lead the both of you wherever i want you to go.Your both 2 thick to realise it.

all IMHAO - of courseDevil
Report Pastie November 7, 2011 6:42 AM GMT
As AUD/USD failed to hold a close below the daily and weekly 20ema I have gone long @ 1.0353

SL - 1.0292
TP1 - 1.0496
TP2 - ???
TP3 - ???

Good luck Mr Ben!
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