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Based on the just released FED statement and the earlier in the day BoE's minutes, I would say the probability of success of my prediction POSTED TWO MONTHS AGO TO THE DAY in an exchange with JW has been raised from 70pc to 90pc. The probability of the other predictions made on here of Gold at less than $1,000 (benny) and DOW at 14,000 (wipeout) unfortunately remains at what it always has been........ZERO.
You can trade all the volatility in the markets if you understand the big picture or the alternative is to just........buy Apple.
Menelaus Joined: 03 Feb 05
Replies: 972 31 Jul 11 00:47
I just spotted this little gem in your post:
"it was the perfect chance to revise down gdp from old quarters to pave the way for some qe3"
Prediction 1: THERE WILL BE NO QE3 IN 2011 at least not overtly, or officially announced by the FED. Those expecting overtones of a QE3 announcement at next months Jackson Hole meeting will be disappointed.
Prediction 2: The BoE will go through another round of QE BEFORE the FED does.
It is politically unattainable for the FED and inflation (OIL) is still running too high. The BoE has been releasing trial balloons for some time now (Paul Fisher) and Cable appealing for more easing was not an accident.
You can trade all the volatility in the markets if you understand the big picture or the alternative is to just........buy Apple.
Menelaus Joined: 03 Feb 05
Replies: 972 31 Jul 11 00:47
I just spotted this little gem in your post:
"it was the perfect chance to revise down gdp from old quarters to pave the way for some qe3"
Prediction 1: THERE WILL BE NO QE3 IN 2011 at least not overtly, or officially announced by the FED. Those expecting overtones of a QE3 announcement at next months Jackson Hole meeting will be disappointed.
Prediction 2: The BoE will go through another round of QE BEFORE the FED does.
It is politically unattainable for the FED and inflation (OIL) is still running too high. The BoE has been releasing trial balloons for some time now (Paul Fisher) and Cable appealing for more easing was not an accident.
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Would it be possible that the Bank of England do their own QE regardless of what the Fed do ?
The short answer is yes.
The long answer is that although the BoE is *supposed* to act independently and deliver to best monetary policy needed for the UK, central banks today are really part of one banking cartel. They act in a coordinated manner. All this talk about the SNB "surprising" everyone with their peg to the euro is total nonsense. All central banks knew about it before it was announced. Look at the dollar swaps program announced between the FED/BoE/ECB/BoJ. They are all in this together. So the BoE could do their own QE, no doubt, but rest assured the timing and extend will have to be in line with what the FED has in mind. I know some on here will disagree, but that's okay, I stopped believing in fairy tales long ago.
The conditions in the UK are ripe for another round of QE (it will have about as much success as the first round). All the trial balloons released the last few months by monetary policy committee members and the government are simple just conditioning the public to accept it as "old news" when the actual event takes place.
The long answer is that although the BoE is *supposed* to act independently and deliver to best monetary policy needed for the UK, central banks today are really part of one banking cartel. They act in a coordinated manner. All this talk about the SNB "surprising" everyone with their peg to the euro is total nonsense. All central banks knew about it before it was announced. Look at the dollar swaps program announced between the FED/BoE/ECB/BoJ. They are all in this together. So the BoE could do their own QE, no doubt, but rest assured the timing and extend will have to be in line with what the FED has in mind. I know some on here will disagree, but that's okay, I stopped believing in fairy tales long ago.
The conditions in the UK are ripe for another round of QE (it will have about as much success as the first round). All the trial balloons released the last few months by monetary policy committee members and the government are simple just conditioning the public to accept it as "old news" when the actual event takes place.
They are all in this together 
Cheers Menelaus that's about what i thought .. though they continue to ramp it up constantly .. people are almost expecting it as you mention
You really don't think they'll push through with it this year ?
Cheers Menelaus that's about what i thought .. though they continue to ramp it up constantly .. people are almost expecting it as you mention
You really don't think they'll push through with it this year ?
how can the boe do qe following a few tasty quotes from our friendly coalition,
gideon printing money is economics of the madhouse
vince cable qe is the politics of robert mugabe,
even this coalition couldnt square that circle
gideon printing money is economics of the madhouse
vince cable qe is the politics of robert mugabe,
even this coalition couldnt square that circle
No one said it's not madness.
But you are looking at the wrong direction for your answers.
Print they will because print they must. It's about the banks, it's all about the banks, it always has been about the banks, it'll always will be about the banks.
Everything else is noise.
But you are looking at the wrong direction for your answers.
Print they will because print they must. It's about the banks, it's all about the banks, it always has been about the banks, it'll always will be about the banks.
Everything else is noise.
So its blue chip shorting time til the start of November, medium buy in the UK but with a selling position within 2 weeks, have a holiday and eat lots of turkey whilst laughing/feeling glumness at the banks/people in the know attempt to pool the wool over the eyes over everbody, wait for pre-Benny-going-mental-to-save-the-world QE3III and buy everything then sell everything but then having to decide what to do with the soon to be useless cash position before US agents in Iran attack Israel.
Or something like that.
Or something like that.
Its the mathematician in me that hates open-endedness btw.
From my post yesterday:
It's about the banks, it's all about the banks, it always has been about the banks, it'll always will be about the banks.
From the G20 Statement today:
"We commit to take all necessary actions to preserve the stability of banking systems and financial markets as required,"
It's about the banks, it's all about the banks, it always has been about the banks, it'll always will be about the banks.
From the G20 Statement today:
"We commit to take all necessary actions to preserve the stability of banking systems and financial markets as required,"
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