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unitedbiscuits
16 Sep 11 20:25
Joined:
Date Joined: 27 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 22,521 | Blogger: unitedbiscuits's blog
20 + consecutive months of rises - doubled since begining of 2010. that's the sort of performance you want from a company.
Pause Switch to Standard View Apple pushing $400
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Report Whippet September 17, 2011 11:47 AM BST
AAPL bucking all the trends at the moment. I thought it was supposed to crash and burn into oblivion due to a myriad of reasons? Even the jobs resignation has had no impact. Laugh
Report Menelaus September 19, 2011 11:38 AM BST
Now I know why the forum has been so quiet.

When we are witnessing markets that have are no longer price discovery mechanisms, markets that have disconnected from fundamentals and the economy and are literally managed by central banks through what seems a series of endless interventions.

When we are witnessing the global banking system on the precipice, the euro threatened to cease to exist, the UK continuing to pile on debt while "austerity" is supposedly the policy, the US continuing to drown in debt with leadership that is still touting more debt and more spending as a way out of the their economic malaise, China giving serious signals that the bubble is bursting and will no longer be able to "carry" any recovery.

When we are witnessing Ben Bernanke and the FED literally becoming *THE* market everywhere in the world with "investors" anxiously waiting with baited breath for every word that comes out of his mouth.......and you chaps are posting about AAPL and trying to pick the next big blow-off minor miner, events are truly beyond your comprehension.

This is not just epic ignorance, it's QUANTUM IGNORANCE, and you best continue to stay silent. At least that way you get the benefit of the doubt.
Report unitedbiscuits September 19, 2011 2:26 PM BST
Menelaus, do you really wish to re-enter the arena  of AAPL? If Apple ever falls to the price it was when menelaus started doom-mongering, the likelihood is that they would still be out-performing the market by half.
Report Menelaus September 19, 2011 3:56 PM BST
Re-enter the AAPL "arena"??? What for??? How many times do I have to post "buy-and-hold" as an investment strategy died in Sept. 2008 until you get it?

Why would I trade the markets with AAPL that traded $403 back in July and "touching" that again two months later when I can trade the markets using triple leveraged ETFs that most often have 8-15pc daily swings?

It's hilarious, you chaps need to make your minds up. You haven't a clue about fundamentals or T/A because they don't matter since you are not long term "investors", you are merely price momentum junkies. Or, you are day traders and tying capital up on expensive stocks like AAPL is the last thing you want to do in a volatile market.

The markets of late are a traders wet dream, so there's a time and place to post "wow, I'm in awe, you better buy apple" it's just that NOW isn't it. Lots of money to be made just riding the volatility if you understand and anticipate the next central bank intervention. Unfortunately if the past is any indication, not many on here do understand what's really going on. So they take the "easy" way out...."wow,wow,wow, what a company, BUY APPLE" Laugh
Report unitedbiscuits September 19, 2011 4:43 PM BST
I don't think you're quite rational when it comes to Apple, menelaus, and consequently your posts on this stock are rather discredited:
menelaus. April 5th 2011 , when AAPL were $334. "If you are still holding AAPL, I'd consider getting out without any delay if I were you."
The full thread train wreck can be retrieved under the title. AAPL, is anyone paying attention?
Report Menelaus September 19, 2011 5:12 PM BST
unitedbiscuits, nice try but your evasive maneuvers must improve......substantially.

You haven't told me why as an INVESTOR I should hold AAPL when we are in a balance sheet recession, economic shocks are recurring  at an alarming frequency because nothing has been fixed (TOO MUCH DEBT IN THE SYSTEM TO BE SUSTAINED BY GROWTH IN THE ORGANIC ECONOMY), the global banking system is still overleveraged and essentially insolvent, when sovereign insolvency in the EZ threatens the euro and the banking system, when central bank interventions are now the norm just to keep the markets up and the real economy from collapsing, the world's most significant economy is in a depression (yes, not recession, depression and I can prove it if you like), aggregate real earnings and incomes will fall (stagnate at best), defaults will rise and P/Es will fall?

You haven't told me why as a TRADER I should tie up capital in a very expensive AAPL stock that has gone nowhere in two months when I can put it work trading all the volatility that I all traders crave for and currently dominate the markets?

In fact, come to think of it, except your mindless "buy apple" shouts, you haven't ever told me much of anything on this forum. Never mind, carry on......
Report Menelaus September 19, 2011 5:29 PM BST
And if answer "because AAPL is acting as a safe-heaven", that play in the fullness of time will turn out to be as good a play as those who are buying 10yr duration USG debt at 2pc (or less) based on it's perceived safe-heaven status. Fundamentals always assert themselves at the end, this time will not be different.
Report unitedbiscuits September 19, 2011 5:45 PM BST
You may have some valid points, menelaus. But I don't worry about them. I assume all that is priced in. Apple are the most scrutinized company of all. And time, unfortunately, has shown you to be a loser with regards to Apple.

Apple make stuff coveted from the top to the bottom of the economic pyramid. That's why there are such high expectations, expectations that Apple exceed time after time.
Report unitedbiscuits September 19, 2011 5:55 PM BST
I just looked at their chart to see that Apple were somewhere around $120 in September 2008. Just a hunch, but did menelaus sell his stock then?
Report Menelaus September 19, 2011 6:23 PM BST
unitedbiscuits, your track record of telling me nothing except mindless "buy apple" shouts is still intact.

Apple is perceived as a safe-heaven and trades on fundamentals that are much different than the broader market. A strong balance sheet, no debt, $80 billion plus in cash and a cult-like religious devotion to it's products. Trust me, I know and understand all that. But let's look at history.

From Aug. 2007 to Dec. 2007 AAPL went from about $125 to $199. The S&P in that same period went from about 1,445 to 1,478. AAPL was not strong enough to pull up the entire market, and when the market started its collapse, AAPL fell along with the market. It fell back to about $122 in Feb. 2008 before rebounding to about $176 in Aug. 2008, and then collapsed to its bear market low of $82 in Jan. 2009. A broader market collapse due to balance sheet deflation, banking system insolvency, a liquidity crisis and an economic recession will take down even the best stocks. It looks like AAPL was no exception. You are naive to think "this time is different".

If you think the issues that are facing us are trivial, have been resolved or about to be resolved. If you think central bank intervention and continued "policy decisions" will save both the economy and the markets. If you think that the risk of another market collapse is fairly low, the banking system will stop being a dead weight around the neck of real economic growth, then knock yourself out - buy Apple. If you think that nothing has been solved and volatility will be the order of the day, then tying up capital in AAPL when you can put it to work trading all that volatility is plain silly.

Can AAPL reach those outrageous targets some of those "tend to be conservative" analysts were touting? Yes it can!!! Inflation through continued fiat money printing has a tendency to do that - lift asset values. Yes it can, but those same analysts need to tell me what a loaf of bread will cost when prices are hit otherwise their price targets are meaningless.

Also, you better start telling me something real soon because I'm fast starting to lose interest trying to educate you.
Report unitedbiscuits September 19, 2011 7:21 PM BST
So, did you hold Apple, and sell in Sept 2008?
Report Menelaus September 19, 2011 8:35 PM BST
I know how you feel. I remember once getting into a debate at a cocktail party with a Nuclear Physicist about the soundless of John von Neumann's game theory and his explanation was so over my head I could do no better than crack a few jokes. Cheer up. Laugh
Report unitedbiscuits September 20, 2011 8:41 AM BST
You have been winning the argument all along, menelaus. But all the time you have been getting poorer relative to those who hold Apple. what do you intellectuals call that, irony?
Report Menelaus September 20, 2011 3:00 PM BST
Are you really *THAT* thick?

If your wonderland definition of poorer means about 40% gains day trading the massive volatility the last eight weeks, versus tying up capital in an expensive stock, then you'd be right. Unfortunately poorer in the real world I live in is quite different to what it means in the wonderland world you seem to function in, full of apple-glitz, green unicorns and rainbow coloured skittles.

Literally hundreds of posts on here by you and still can't find a morsel of a critical or original thought by you. Oh wait, sorry, I almost forgot, you did say "buy apple". Laugh
Report unitedbiscuits September 20, 2011 5:29 PM BST
There was a young woman named Michelle, who was always broke and always late for work but her boss could not be very angry with her because as well as being very beautiful, she hadn't a mean thought in her head. Now she was seeing an older man who made money faster than he could spend it. He was married of course, and supported a big gambling habit as well as his family and mistress. Saturday nights, he stayed in. On the week-end of the Breeders' Cup, Michelle entrusted him all the money she had left that month, and told him that she had such faith in his judgement that, if he would add her stake to his bets, she was sure that he would return the sum tenfold on Monday. "Why did you do that?" asked her boss, "he's a terrible gambler and bound to lose it."
"I know." said Michelle, "But he'll pretend to me he's won." Sure enough, come Monday he presented her with £1,000 for the £100 Michelle had staked him. "You're so clever," she fluttered, sliding the money into her purse.
Report Whippet September 20, 2011 7:08 PM BST
Why can't you admit defeat melly?

The fact that you are making money trading ETFs is irrelevant in this argument.

You set out your reasons why AAPL was a good short, and it hasn't worked out. You would have thought that with the rest of the market in carnage, aapl would have followed it down, but it hasn't. You got it wrong.

To be a good trader you need to realise when you are wrong and learn from it. Taking a pompous and arrogant attitude towards things, thinking you can never be wrong is dangerous.

You did well on the NFLX trade though so congrats there.
Report Menelaus September 20, 2011 9:03 PM BST
@ unitedbiscuits

Like I said, when the discussion is totally over your head just start telling stories and jokes. Works for me.


@ whipeout

What's totally relevant here is your massive ignorance. I don't know how you trade the markets but in my case I trade with money. You know, the coloured paper, the fiat variety with the Royal Majesty the Queen's portrait on it. Instead of having my money in a "safe-heaven" expensive stock that has gone nowhere since July, I prefer to put it to work trading markets that are a trader's nirvana if you have the knowledge and the balls to take a few stands along the way. You seem unable to grasp this concept perhaps because ------------------(feel free to fill the blank).
Report Menelaus September 20, 2011 9:39 PM BST
@ whipeout


Here, I'll throw you a bone so you don't think I just beat you up all the time. I know you fool around with miners. These announcements came out yesterday. I think this is trend setting for miners. I hope you understand why it was done and the implications (HINT: short sellers).


Newmont Enhances Gold Price-Linked Dividend Policy

DENVER, Sept. 19, 2011 /CNW/ -- Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE: NEM) ("Newmont" or the "Company") today announced enhancements to its industry leading gold price-linked dividend policy, announced initially in April 2011. Under the enhanced policy, Newmont's annual dividend has the potential to increase to $4.70 per share if the Company's average realized gold price reaches $2,500 per ounce.

The enhanced policy will continue to link the quarterly dividend rate to changes in the gold price but will also provide an additional step up of 7.5 cents per share when the Company's realized gold price for a quarter exceeds $1,700 per ounce and a further step up of 2.5 cents per share (10 cents in total compared to the existing policy) when the Company's realized gold price for a quarter exceeds $2,000. At average realized gold prices below $1,700 per ounce, the current dividend policy remains unchanged. Newmont's quarterly gold price-linked dividend payments are based on the Company's average realized gold price for the preceding quarter.


Hecla Introduces Silver-Linked Dividend Policy

COEUR D'ALENE, Idaho, Sep 20, 2011 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Hecla Mining Company ("Hecla")(NYSE:HL) is very pleased to announce that its Board of Directors has adopted a common stock dividend policy that links dividend payments to Hecla's average quarterly realized silver price in the preceding quarter.

The initial quarterly dividend under the policy is expected to be $0.03 per share of common stock ($0.12 per year), if Hecla's average realized silver price for the third quarter is $40.00 per ounce. All dividends, including those in the third quarter, would increase or decrease by $0.01 per share ($0.04 annually) for each $5.00 per ounce incremental increase or decrease in the average realized silver price in the preceding quarter. Subject to Board approval, it is expected that the initial quarterly dividend under this policy will be declared and payable before the end of the fourth quarter and will be based on average realized silver prices during the third quarter 2011
Report Whippet September 21, 2011 1:17 AM BST
so basically you aren't going to admit you got it wrong for once. There's a suprise. Of course your other trades are irrelevant - we aren't discussing how good you are at making money elsewhere, we are discussing your AAPL trade which has failed miserably. Admit you were wrong and move on please.
Report polybot September 21, 2011 7:39 AM BST
got it wrong for once he gets it wrong every time
your other trades are irrelevant he doesn't have ANY trades
move on please  this is the douchebag who will never "move on"...
Report Menelaus September 21, 2011 8:05 AM BST
@ the NZ halfwit

The ONLY idea you ever had on this forum was to keep shouting "buy apple". It seems like you should have stuck to it instead of posting it was "overbought" $50s ago and you were looking for "new ideas". Get it through your thick skull, you have to have a clue to come with new ideas beyond yelling "buy apple".


@ wipeout


What exactly did I get wrong? Go back and read my posts on several threads. AAPL is acting as a safe-haven, so is the USG 10YR Treasury yielding 1.95pc. This is money panic fleeing, not money looking for a safe-heaven. Anything that starts with the word panic usually does not end well. Neither will this.

You didn't comment on the miner tidbit I posted so there's more than a fair chance it went right over your head as I suspected it would.
Report unitedbiscuits September 21, 2011 9:56 AM BST
Oh well, another day, another ten billion dollars.

The share price has risen by a third in £ terms since menelaus brought attention to it on April 5th..
Report Menelaus September 21, 2011 10:11 AM BST
unitedbiscuits, I'll explain it to you the same way I would explain it to a 5-year old child, hopefully there's a chance you'll understand......but I'm an optimist.

1. AAPL is expensive (usually at this point I would go into a long diatribe explaining why it's expensive but a 5-year ole child wouldn't understand......neither would you).

2. AAPL is now moving on panic buying. So are USG Treasuries. Both trades will not end well.

3. In the real world people use money to trade. The coloured paper, fiat variety backed by nothing but faith and all that....but money nonetheless. It may surprise you that in the real world, unless you are Bernanke or King, we all have a limited supply of this money. When we trade therefore we have to put this money to work to drive the highest possible returns.......am I going to fast for you?...............okay, I'll slow down............so instead of tying money up in a very expensive stock that has gone nowhere in two months, we trade the volatility for huge profits.


Please tell me you get it now. I'm not too patient with 5-year olds.
Report unitedbiscuits September 21, 2011 12:24 PM BST
menelaus - I get it now with you alright.

whippet - You are too young to recall the late Bob Beckman? Google him and you'll find the same species of forecaster as menelaus. In fact there used to be a term in the City called "the Bob Beckman effect," in tha whatever he, in his infinite wisdom, pronounced, the opposite happened. As soon as he got in the driver's seat and took his foot off the clutch, he would reverse into a lampost. Died rich in Monaco, though. That's the trouble with these charlatans, in pretending to be right always they damage the gullible, not themselves.
Report Menelaus September 21, 2011 3:39 PM BST
Sorry lads, I didn't mean to disturb you. I was heading for the "Banks are Insolvent" conference down the hall but I entered through the "Fanboy Convention" door by mistake. My bad, carry on......
Report Menelaus September 21, 2011 9:15 PM BST
Let's see, if you were NOT anticipating QE3 from Bernanke today, understood the inherent implications and impact on the US markets, and had the balls to short the Russell through TZA (3X) into yesterday's close, and sold into today's close, you just had an 11.15 pc return on your money. Had you done the same with shorting the DOW through DXD (2X) your return would have been 5.25 pc. The S&P through SDS (2X) 6.17 pc. And if you thought the'd be a spill-over into the already strained financials, shorting through FAZ (3X) just got you a whopping 14.03 pc return.............in a SINGLE DAY.

Congratulations fanboys, keep fondling your ipads wishing AAPL becomes the new gold. On the other hand to be fair, if events are unfolding at a pace and a complexion beyond my comprehension, I'd be panic buying Apple too.
Report Menelaus September 21, 2011 9:31 PM BST
*complexity*
Report Menelaus September 22, 2011 4:52 PM BST
Is this a good day to buy an ipad?
Report Menelaus September 26, 2011 1:13 PM BST
Apple Trims Orders for IPad Parts: JPMorgan

Apple Inc. is cutting orders to vendors in the supply chain for its iPad tablet computer, a move that may result in slower sales for companies including Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., JPMorgan Chase & Co. said in a report.
Several supply-chain vendors indicated in the past two weeks that Apple lowered fourth-quarter iPad orders 25 percent, the first such cut that analysts at JPMorgan’s electronic manufacturing services team in Hong Kong said they have ever seen. The report didn’t list the affected companies, and Gokul Hariharan, one of the report’s authors, said he couldn’t comment when reached by Bloomberg News today.

full story here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-26/apple-cuts-ipad-supply-chain-orders-jpmorgan.html
Report Menelaus September 27, 2011 8:27 AM BST
JPMorgan Differs With JPMorgan on Apple IPad Order Research

Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Mark Moskowitz said research from his colleagues in Asia about a cut in Apple Inc. iPad orders doesn’t represent the views of the securities firm’s U.S. team.

“Apple is fine,” Moskowitz wrote.

Apple is cutting orders to vendors in the supply chain for its iPad tablet computer, a move that may mean slower sales for companies including Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., according to the earlier report by Hong Kong-based JPMorgan analyst Gokul Hariharan.

Analysts at other firms also issued research aimed at quelling speculation that demand for iPads had diminished -- a concern that dragged down Apple’s stock as much as 3.2 percent in Nasdaq Stock Market trading yesterday. Chris Caso, an analyst at Susquehanna International Group, said the resulting “chatter” was “misleading” and Gene Munster, at Piper Jaffray Cos., said changes in orders may be the result of Apple moving some iPad manufacturing out of Asia to Brazil.

full story here:
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-09-26/jpmorgan-differs-with-jpmorgan-on-apple-ipad-order-research.html
Report unitedbiscuits October 4, 2011 11:19 AM BST
This could be a good time to buy at $375 imo.
Report Menelaus October 4, 2011 1:29 PM BST
That's what you said at $400 !?!?

A fanboy will always be a fanboy. This is not investment advice, it's lusting over a brand on a public forum.

You could have bought AAPL at today's price on July 18, 2011. Long time to tie up capital when it can be put to work trading the volatility. If you are a trader, you'd know exactly what I mean. If you an investor, with a long term outlook, then you should know that the markets are starting to price in a global recession, the banking system is on the brink and apple is about to have their margin squeezed. I believe you are simply just a fanboy, so just keep buying apple.
Report Menelaus October 4, 2011 9:27 PM BST
unitedbiscuits, what do you think, what caused the bounce from 5pc down to nearly flat in AAPL today? The amazing voice-activated personal assistant on the new iphone5.....eeeer, sorry, I meant iphone4S, or the Chairman stepping in to squeeze all shorts again? I mean a 375 point recovery in the last 45 minutes of trading on a mere rumor of yet another grand plan to save the european banking system is pretty impressive, isn't it? Especially when it came out of the mouth of that most credible gentleman called Olli Rehn.

Your very cleverly timed post to "but apple" on the day iphone5 (well, at least that's what everyone thought) was being released, didn't workout so good. Not to worry mate, I'm sure there's going to be plenty of other opportunities (iphone5 in a few weeks apparently) for you to surprise us with some more brilliant analysis or the alternative to just simply shamelessly post........what else........ "buy apple".
Report Menelaus October 4, 2011 9:28 PM BST
***"buy apple"***
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