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I just wanted to be first in line to thank you for that heads-ups that the numbers are getting better and it's only a "soft patch" the US economy is going through.
Today's US GDP release:
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
Just in case you haven't finished reading that Carol Vorderman book you have in your library, let me break it down for you.
Massive miss in Q2 GDP, printing at 1.3pc.
Massive correction to Q1 GDP, down to 0.4pc from 1.9pc.
Massive plunge in Personal Consumption, down from 2.1pc to 0.1pc on expectations of 0.8pc.
If you were looking at economic data released the last few months with a critical eye, you knew this was coming. If you were parroting main stream media, government/FED propaganda then you thought it was a "soft patch".
Not quite as bad as the "no inflation for five years" call, but not far behind either. And yes, gold hits yet another all time high despite the fact it may all be just tungsten bars with a thin layer of gold on top.
Today's US GDP release:
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
Just in case you haven't finished reading that Carol Vorderman book you have in your library, let me break it down for you.
Massive miss in Q2 GDP, printing at 1.3pc.
Massive correction to Q1 GDP, down to 0.4pc from 1.9pc.
Massive plunge in Personal Consumption, down from 2.1pc to 0.1pc on expectations of 0.8pc.
If you were looking at economic data released the last few months with a critical eye, you knew this was coming. If you were parroting main stream media, government/FED propaganda then you thought it was a "soft patch".
Not quite as bad as the "no inflation for five years" call, but not far behind either. And yes, gold hits yet another all time high despite the fact it may all be just tungsten bars with a thin layer of gold on top.
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im flattered really.
for being english you cant understand the lingo, it seems.
if i say the market rally as the indicators pointed higher, meaning there s hope this is been a soft patch, doesnt mean this is a soft patch. it s only interpreting why the market is going up on a prticulr day. same think yday, market went down as indicators were ugly.
just a couple of pts.
1- gdp is the most lagging indicator you can find. as an analyst you shud know that. the fact that gdp q1 was revised down - horribly i must admit - is meaningful to a certain extent only. we re in q3, if you didnt realize. q2 was a miss ( although remember the data is annualized so it s 0.1 only on the classic qoq measure ) too and disappointing. we have to see ism this coming week to chekc wheter we point upwards or not.
2- yday i had the wrong position to start with, long dollars expecting a debt ceiling deal rally. got it wrong to start with, but switched after the releases ( incl canada ). went short cad/chf and usdyen to recoupe. lost money but limited the damage. squared everything now and small long risk for monday. it s not necessary to get into a train first. it s nice to be the 1st one in, but you run the risk of sitting in the wrong train, and sometimes it s better to wait for the platform announcement first.
3- it was revision day yday for gdp. on one thing i might concur with you, it was the perfect chance to revise down gdp from old quarters to pave the way for some qe3. or do you really believe that after the q1 gdp estimate in april, refined in may and refined again in june, all printing around 1.8, we really discovered a 1.4% of missing production ( 0.35% in a quarter, 50 bion more or less ?? )
4- by your own admission, the fact we had q1 at 0.4, and q2 higher at 1.3 it actually looks like a rebound to me. would have been scarier the other way round ( pointing def at a recession ) while the latest numbers may be actually point to a -weak- rebound frm a soft patch. time will tell.
for being english you cant understand the lingo, it seems.
if i say the market rally as the indicators pointed higher, meaning there s hope this is been a soft patch, doesnt mean this is a soft patch. it s only interpreting why the market is going up on a prticulr day. same think yday, market went down as indicators were ugly.
just a couple of pts.
1- gdp is the most lagging indicator you can find. as an analyst you shud know that. the fact that gdp q1 was revised down - horribly i must admit - is meaningful to a certain extent only. we re in q3, if you didnt realize. q2 was a miss ( although remember the data is annualized so it s 0.1 only on the classic qoq measure ) too and disappointing. we have to see ism this coming week to chekc wheter we point upwards or not.
2- yday i had the wrong position to start with, long dollars expecting a debt ceiling deal rally. got it wrong to start with, but switched after the releases ( incl canada ). went short cad/chf and usdyen to recoupe. lost money but limited the damage. squared everything now and small long risk for monday. it s not necessary to get into a train first. it s nice to be the 1st one in, but you run the risk of sitting in the wrong train, and sometimes it s better to wait for the platform announcement first.
3- it was revision day yday for gdp. on one thing i might concur with you, it was the perfect chance to revise down gdp from old quarters to pave the way for some qe3. or do you really believe that after the q1 gdp estimate in april, refined in may and refined again in june, all printing around 1.8, we really discovered a 1.4% of missing production ( 0.35% in a quarter, 50 bion more or less ?? )
4- by your own admission, the fact we had q1 at 0.4, and q2 higher at 1.3 it actually looks like a rebound to me. would have been scarier the other way round ( pointing def at a recession ) while the latest numbers may be actually point to a -weak- rebound frm a soft patch. time will tell.
Oooh, I get it now. First I don't understand math, now I don't understand english. "I think we had a bit of a soft patch" really means "there's hope this is been a soft patch" in the english language you speak as opposed to the one I use every day.
johnnie walker Joined: 09 Jan 08
Replies: 203 06 Jun 11 23:17
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the thing to understand now is wheter we re in a double dip situation or not.
i wouldnt read too much in the ism manufacturing, a drop of 6-7 pts in a month is surely going to be subject to revisions next month ( and i accept large bets about it ), still it came down from the best cumulative 3 ism readings i can remember ( last 3 reading totalled > 180 ). the average ism since creation is been 52.7, if anything was surprising to see it at 60 with gdp growth barely >2.
still, ism services was stronger and healthy, and job creation, although disappointing was still 300k in the last 2 month ( markets were euphoric to see 247k for april, and some relief to read it confirmed on friday ). the death/birth adjustment is a normal thing to do, if new company spring up but they re not computed in the total, somehow one need to take them into account ( and anyway it s like a SA number as in the winter you tend to have a negative adjustment ).
im not in the bearish camp, i think we had a bit of a soft patch ( same thing happened exactly 1yr ago ) which is normal anyway ( or we forgot we re healing from the worst economic disasters of our lifetime ). soon the expectations will move south and we ll have a string of 'positive' readings ( above expectations ). and the market will turn positive again. this is exactly what the market lacks sometime, a critical sense of what s happening ( we like to compare to expectations, and we forget to compare to previous months or to trend or to breakeven points ).
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STOP regurgitating the "soft patch" and "recovery" bulls@*t propaganda you hear on Bloomberg and CNBC. First you are boring me and second it makes you look totally stupid and captured by the system.
Your analysis of the GDP data, as what most of what you put up here, is childish. The print of 0.4pc is REAL GDP growth FOR THE QUARTER, the 1.3pc print for the second quarter IS AN ANNUAL RATE. And yes, an 1.3 print is UNPRECEDENTED, and just in case your english vocabulary doesn't include this word, it means IT HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE.
CUT & PASTE this and then print it and put it over your desk so you can look at it every day:
"THE FED IS TRYING TO CREATE THE ILLUSION OF RECOVERY WITHOUT THE INFLATION"
The FED will continue to FAKE a recovery. Mugs like you will believe it and "follow the herd" in your investments and........you will get hurt.
If you thing there's real recovery taking place then you are bigger mug than I thought.
johnnie walker Joined: 09 Jan 08
Replies: 203 06 Jun 11 23:17
.........................................................
the thing to understand now is wheter we re in a double dip situation or not.
i wouldnt read too much in the ism manufacturing, a drop of 6-7 pts in a month is surely going to be subject to revisions next month ( and i accept large bets about it ), still it came down from the best cumulative 3 ism readings i can remember ( last 3 reading totalled > 180 ). the average ism since creation is been 52.7, if anything was surprising to see it at 60 with gdp growth barely >2.
still, ism services was stronger and healthy, and job creation, although disappointing was still 300k in the last 2 month ( markets were euphoric to see 247k for april, and some relief to read it confirmed on friday ). the death/birth adjustment is a normal thing to do, if new company spring up but they re not computed in the total, somehow one need to take them into account ( and anyway it s like a SA number as in the winter you tend to have a negative adjustment ).
im not in the bearish camp, i think we had a bit of a soft patch ( same thing happened exactly 1yr ago ) which is normal anyway ( or we forgot we re healing from the worst economic disasters of our lifetime ). soon the expectations will move south and we ll have a string of 'positive' readings ( above expectations ). and the market will turn positive again. this is exactly what the market lacks sometime, a critical sense of what s happening ( we like to compare to expectations, and we forget to compare to previous months or to trend or to breakeven points ).
.........................................................
STOP regurgitating the "soft patch" and "recovery" bulls@*t propaganda you hear on Bloomberg and CNBC. First you are boring me and second it makes you look totally stupid and captured by the system.
Your analysis of the GDP data, as what most of what you put up here, is childish. The print of 0.4pc is REAL GDP growth FOR THE QUARTER, the 1.3pc print for the second quarter IS AN ANNUAL RATE. And yes, an 1.3 print is UNPRECEDENTED, and just in case your english vocabulary doesn't include this word, it means IT HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE.
CUT & PASTE this and then print it and put it over your desk so you can look at it every day:
"THE FED IS TRYING TO CREATE THE ILLUSION OF RECOVERY WITHOUT THE INFLATION"
The FED will continue to FAKE a recovery. Mugs like you will believe it and "follow the herd" in your investments and........you will get hurt.
If you thing there's real recovery taking place then you are bigger mug than I thought.
I just spotted this little gem in your post:
"it was the perfect chance to revise down gdp from old quarters to pave the way for some qe3"
Prediction 1: THERE WILL BE NO QE3 IN 2011 at least not overtly, or officially announced by the FED. Those expecting overtones of a QE3 announcement at next months Jackson Hole meeting will be disappointed.
Prediction 2: The BoE will go through another round of QE BEFORE the FED does.
It is politically unattainable for the FED and inflation (OIL) is still running too high. The BoE has been releasing trial balloons for some time now (Paul Fisher) and Cable appealing for more easing was not an accident.
"it was the perfect chance to revise down gdp from old quarters to pave the way for some qe3"
Prediction 1: THERE WILL BE NO QE3 IN 2011 at least not overtly, or officially announced by the FED. Those expecting overtones of a QE3 announcement at next months Jackson Hole meeting will be disappointed.
Prediction 2: The BoE will go through another round of QE BEFORE the FED does.
It is politically unattainable for the FED and inflation (OIL) is still running too high. The BoE has been releasing trial balloons for some time now (Paul Fisher) and Cable appealing for more easing was not an accident.
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