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Whippet, I'd like you to know I wouldn't do this for anyone else on here. I would normally let you go on trading these markets in blissful ignorance, not understanding what moves them, but I like you. I think you have potential if you can learn to control your temper. I'm posting this now because I thought since you've had a chance to walk away from your computer last evening, calm down and stop posting insults, you'd be able to understand my explanation of what happened this week. Obviously, from reading your posts on the other threads, I'm wrong. Calming down and not spewing insults doesn't seem to be something you are capable of doing. Since I put this together however, I'll put it up, may be other posters would gain from it.
Here's a brief description (to the extend possible) of what took place this week that seems to have you so befuddled. We got a rally in the markets when based on what you were posting you were clearly expecting a selloff or at least "flatlining". What's worse, you still don't seem to know or understand why. You posted, "there shouldn't be a massive selloff from here" - massive being the key word. In other words you thought a selloff was quite possible but not likely a massive one. In the same post you said "I reckon it will be pretty flat", not exactly an endorsement for buying the market. Your posts are still up readers can look them up for themselves. So redefining reality ("I held on to my longs") and mocking the "perma-bears" AFTER THE MARKET did what it did, makes you irresponsible and silly.
Here's the crux of the matter: The FED is trying to create the illusion of recovery WITHOUT THE INFLATION. This is not a conspiracy theory, it's there right in front of your nose if you know where to look.
First of all, to sell the illusion of recovery, Bernanke needs a rallying market. He knows better than anyone that most people relate a rising market to a healthy and growing economy.What a better time to ramp the market up when you can get cover from the Greece "solution" and right before the July 4, independence day long weekend. What a better time to pull this off when you can get panicked shorts to do a lot of the lifting for you when they cover positions and run for the hills. Short interest had been building up on NYSE by the TA traders and those paying attention to fundamentals (bad economic indicators everywhere, slowing growth in global economy, EZ sovereign debt issues led by Greece). NYSE short interest was the highest in 2011, at 13.5 billion shares an increase close to half a billion shares in just two weeks. This is an old page out of the FED's playbook and If you didn't see it coming, you just weren't paying attention. They pulled the same stunt in the fall of 2008, spring 2009, summer 2010.
You may argue that I have no way of proving this thesis, that it is all a conspiracy theory. You could argue that but you'd have a tough time explaining to me how Citi, JPM, GS & BAC only had one losing day at the prop desks, all four banks COMBINED, during the last quarter. What is that, a nine sigma event?
Second, the FED needs to deal with INFLATION which they deny they created through money printing. They need lower petrol and lower food prices. This play was telegraphed by the FED and again, I posted about it. Just get the IEM to issue a statement about releasing strategic supplies (half from the SPR) AT A TIME WHEN IT WAS TOTALLY UNNECESSARY since the trend for oil prices was already heading lower and...mission accomplished. Well, almost. The oil market reacted and the oil price bounced back up when it was starting to become obvious that the petroleum strategic reserves would now be held, instead of the sovereign members of the IEA, by.....the too big too fail banks. There's a lot of doubt now whether actually any inventories will be moved out, or if the whole scam is simply....a paper transaction.
How did the FED deal with trying to lower food prices? Simple, just get the USDA to announce an out of the blue and totally unexpected high yield corn acreage number AT A TIME WHEN PRICES WERE EASING ANYWAYS and you have those holding long positions running for the hills. Not only in corn, but the entire grain complex, not to mention the expected spill over into the livestock sector. The end result, lower food prices on all products using corn and wheat but also lower meat and chicken prices at the same time. Just like magic. Isn't that Bernanke a miracle maker?
And last but not least, the mirror that reflects the FED's debasement of the USD had to be viciously attacked, that of course being gold. The price of gold dropping like a rock when the "risk on" trade is back on with a vengeance and Greece has magically disappeared from everyone's radar screen.......AT A TIME WHEN THE COMMERCIAL NET SHORT FUTURES have taken an incredible plunge. And if this doesn't make you scratch your head and go hmmmmm, you better go back and read that last line again.
Whippet, I have been posting ad nauseum on this forum, "the markets have dislocated from the real economy" and "don't fight the FED" but evidently you haven't been listening. I also posted that commodities are about to be mercilessly attacked because Bernanke sees inflation as "transitory". If you weren't commodities short and equities long (that's where the money leaving the commodities market would end up chasing alpha) the last couple of weeks, you either don't understand what's been posted or you are too proud to ask.
As far as the prediction you posted is concerned (FTSE 7000, DOW 14000, Gold $1250, AAPL $450 from here), I can't really comment on it since there is no timeframe attached. I have no idea if you believe those levels will be achieved next week, next month, next year or at some other unspecified point in time. I would say, as long as Bernanke runs the show, these markets will continue to levitate despite poor fundamentals.....unless an unforeseen event beyond their control takes place. Also what will eventually catch up with Bernanke is something called.......reality.
The last thing I want to leave you with is that putting up those predictions at the end of a week where we saw the DOW climb over 600 points looks and feels to me that you are following the herd of sheep. Stay close to the exit to make sure you don't get sheared as all ignorant lemmings like you inevitably eventually do.
Here's a brief description (to the extend possible) of what took place this week that seems to have you so befuddled. We got a rally in the markets when based on what you were posting you were clearly expecting a selloff or at least "flatlining". What's worse, you still don't seem to know or understand why. You posted, "there shouldn't be a massive selloff from here" - massive being the key word. In other words you thought a selloff was quite possible but not likely a massive one. In the same post you said "I reckon it will be pretty flat", not exactly an endorsement for buying the market. Your posts are still up readers can look them up for themselves. So redefining reality ("I held on to my longs") and mocking the "perma-bears" AFTER THE MARKET did what it did, makes you irresponsible and silly.
Here's the crux of the matter: The FED is trying to create the illusion of recovery WITHOUT THE INFLATION. This is not a conspiracy theory, it's there right in front of your nose if you know where to look.
First of all, to sell the illusion of recovery, Bernanke needs a rallying market. He knows better than anyone that most people relate a rising market to a healthy and growing economy.What a better time to ramp the market up when you can get cover from the Greece "solution" and right before the July 4, independence day long weekend. What a better time to pull this off when you can get panicked shorts to do a lot of the lifting for you when they cover positions and run for the hills. Short interest had been building up on NYSE by the TA traders and those paying attention to fundamentals (bad economic indicators everywhere, slowing growth in global economy, EZ sovereign debt issues led by Greece). NYSE short interest was the highest in 2011, at 13.5 billion shares an increase close to half a billion shares in just two weeks. This is an old page out of the FED's playbook and If you didn't see it coming, you just weren't paying attention. They pulled the same stunt in the fall of 2008, spring 2009, summer 2010.
You may argue that I have no way of proving this thesis, that it is all a conspiracy theory. You could argue that but you'd have a tough time explaining to me how Citi, JPM, GS & BAC only had one losing day at the prop desks, all four banks COMBINED, during the last quarter. What is that, a nine sigma event?
Second, the FED needs to deal with INFLATION which they deny they created through money printing. They need lower petrol and lower food prices. This play was telegraphed by the FED and again, I posted about it. Just get the IEM to issue a statement about releasing strategic supplies (half from the SPR) AT A TIME WHEN IT WAS TOTALLY UNNECESSARY since the trend for oil prices was already heading lower and...mission accomplished. Well, almost. The oil market reacted and the oil price bounced back up when it was starting to become obvious that the petroleum strategic reserves would now be held, instead of the sovereign members of the IEA, by.....the too big too fail banks. There's a lot of doubt now whether actually any inventories will be moved out, or if the whole scam is simply....a paper transaction.
How did the FED deal with trying to lower food prices? Simple, just get the USDA to announce an out of the blue and totally unexpected high yield corn acreage number AT A TIME WHEN PRICES WERE EASING ANYWAYS and you have those holding long positions running for the hills. Not only in corn, but the entire grain complex, not to mention the expected spill over into the livestock sector. The end result, lower food prices on all products using corn and wheat but also lower meat and chicken prices at the same time. Just like magic. Isn't that Bernanke a miracle maker?
And last but not least, the mirror that reflects the FED's debasement of the USD had to be viciously attacked, that of course being gold. The price of gold dropping like a rock when the "risk on" trade is back on with a vengeance and Greece has magically disappeared from everyone's radar screen.......AT A TIME WHEN THE COMMERCIAL NET SHORT FUTURES have taken an incredible plunge. And if this doesn't make you scratch your head and go hmmmmm, you better go back and read that last line again.
Whippet, I have been posting ad nauseum on this forum, "the markets have dislocated from the real economy" and "don't fight the FED" but evidently you haven't been listening. I also posted that commodities are about to be mercilessly attacked because Bernanke sees inflation as "transitory". If you weren't commodities short and equities long (that's where the money leaving the commodities market would end up chasing alpha) the last couple of weeks, you either don't understand what's been posted or you are too proud to ask.
As far as the prediction you posted is concerned (FTSE 7000, DOW 14000, Gold $1250, AAPL $450 from here), I can't really comment on it since there is no timeframe attached. I have no idea if you believe those levels will be achieved next week, next month, next year or at some other unspecified point in time. I would say, as long as Bernanke runs the show, these markets will continue to levitate despite poor fundamentals.....unless an unforeseen event beyond their control takes place. Also what will eventually catch up with Bernanke is something called.......reality.
The last thing I want to leave you with is that putting up those predictions at the end of a week where we saw the DOW climb over 600 points looks and feels to me that you are following the herd of sheep. Stay close to the exit to make sure you don't get sheared as all ignorant lemmings like you inevitably eventually do.
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took me three attempts to read the full post.I fell asleep the first 2 times.[;)]
at least you kept the abuse to a minimum melly.
interesting thoughts actually.
I just have a few questions , if you could help.
here in aust in the AFL footy this year virtually all the favs have won all season.Almost no upsets.However this weekend there were a number of upsets.
Was it bernake?
In the aust womens soccer game against eq guinea one player caught the ball but the referee missed it completely- a bernake agent?
Theres big floods in china, will push up rice prices apparently- did a bernake agent leave a tap on somewhere do you think?
Of course the Thai election result- bernakes doing.
One other thing ,Im asking you for advice, like J2 does, where do you think the price of bernake, ooops sorry GOLD will go from here.
Please help.
at least you kept the abuse to a minimum melly.
interesting thoughts actually.
I just have a few questions , if you could help.
here in aust in the AFL footy this year virtually all the favs have won all season.Almost no upsets.However this weekend there were a number of upsets.
Was it bernake?
In the aust womens soccer game against eq guinea one player caught the ball but the referee missed it completely- a bernake agent?
Theres big floods in china, will push up rice prices apparently- did a bernake agent leave a tap on somewhere do you think?
Of course the Thai election result- bernakes doing.
One other thing ,Im asking you for advice, like J2 does, where do you think the price of bernake, ooops sorry GOLD will go from here.
Please help.
Mrben Joined: 25 Oct 03
Replies: 3784 02 Jul 11 05:12
beat me with a rubber stick baby!!!!!!
be a good boy and take your pants down
I'll show what Bernake can do
then it's gonna hurt for a while but you'll get over it
Replies: 3784 02 Jul 11 05:12
beat me with a rubber stick baby!!!!!!
be a good boy and take your pants down
I'll show what Bernake can do
then it's gonna hurt for a while but you'll get over it
your a cream puff canada, you proved it omn the other thread. You could'nt pull the skin off a rice custard.
actually I'm surprised you did'nt mention a word ending in "tard"
actually I'm surprised you did'nt mention a word ending in "tard"
I'm starting to change my mind about beating you up
I see too many of these
in your posts
I'm starting to think you're gay......
.....not that there's anything wrong with that ozzie "man"
I see too many of these
in your postsI'm starting to think you're gay......
.....not that there's anything wrong with that ozzie "man"
gay, definitely gay
I mean using words like "cream puff"
**** pleeeease *****
I hope I didn't hurt you too much girl, eeer, sorry I mean ozzie "man"
I mean using words like "cream puff"
**** pleeeease *****
I hope I didn't hurt you too much girl, eeer, sorry I mean ozzie "man"
"cream puff"
PMSL
why don't you throw your high heels at me ozzie "man"?
PMSL
why don't you throw your high heels at me ozzie "man"?
canadian is loved where ever he goes
04 Jul 11 04:18
Joined:
25 Oct 10
| Topic/replies: 3,686 | Blogger: TeenQueen's blog
MrCanada,
Got anything interesting to say, say it, otherwise, fk off!
04 Jul 11 04:18
Joined:
25 Oct 10
| Topic/replies: 3,686 | Blogger: TeenQueen's blog
MrCanada,
Got anything interesting to say, say it, otherwise, fk off!
a few inaccuracies, or better, few too many personal views into what happened.
so i give you my version, where i try to link the dots you cannot explain:
firstly: the markets are rallying after greece passed the budget cuts making it less likely the european banking systems is going to implode ( and by the way, this is not just kicking the can, greece is tightening the belt and reducing the future liabilities, maybe too slowly but at least the EZ is doing somethign about its fiscal problems, wish we could say the same about the US ).
at the same time we had a strong reading from michigan and mainly ISM ( i actually warned you and others here that the previous drop of 6pct points was way too big and was due a rebound, it was probably the easiest forecast to make if one knows how the ism is compiled and recorded ), so now we have hopes/feelings/convictions of a soft patch rather than a double dip.
and of course with the markets stretched on the short side, you always going to get a sharper retracement, i ll repeat it again and again, but prices are a result of demand and supply, not of some intrinsic value..
about the price of oil and corn, most think that it was the right thing to do; ok, the price must have gone the right direction for a couple of days before then, but it s been going the wrong direction for at least a couple of yrs now - wasnt you saying that when fuel cost more than 4$ in america we always get a recession? so, isnt it a fair response to try to fight that? arent reserves something you store in order to use them in emergencies?
about gold, yeah a bit puzzling that it s going down where other assets rally, but again, it s you saying it s a ccy so shudnt behave like the spx, although most of the times it s correlated. but in a world where the fears of double dip and EZ banking system collapse have just been reduced ( if only for a few weeks ), the price of the safest haven has to come down. look at what happened to the chf - which is the closest thing to gold you can get these days, it s TWI dropped around 3%.. so risk on, most of times means 'dollar off' ( if inflationary pressures are building ), but at other times means 'safehavens off' ( considering the inflationary pressures shud come off a bit in light of what happened again in some of the commodity markets - oil, corn...
remember we even got a slow pmi out of china recently, and they been the biggest commodity buyers in last 2 yrs, so a cool down there in the economy might mean less pressures on prices ( ehy, after hiking few times this yr, there are already rumours of rate cuts in china now ..)
lastly, i need to ask you where you get this information:
You may argue that I have no way of proving this thesis, that it is all a conspiracy theory. You could argue that but you'd have a tough time explaining to me how Citi, JPM, GS & BAC only had one losing day at the prop desks, all four banks COMBINED, during the last quarter. What is that, a nine sigma event?
are you sure you re not confusing the terms trading desks and prop desks? ;-)
the clue shud be in the fact that all these banks actually have shut down their prop desk ( as per volker )..
trading desks always operate at profit, in the trading books you have all the market making activities and if banks werent making money there they could even stop the activity...( it s almost like a supermarket selling zero goods in a day )
prop desks are meant to have ups and downs - and hopefully a positive yr in the end, but their performances are much more volatile. their return most of times reflect the street returns ( read: hedge funds, macro ), so it would be incredible to see prop desks making money (and every single day, sharpe in the 'one thousand' region), while hedge funds are struggling - werent you making comments about how rubbish taylor, paulson and whoever else were this yr ( and the few guys who are positive are showing a sharpe of 1 to 2 at best)? i would double check your source of information, but please if you have a link, would be great if you could share it.
jw
so i give you my version, where i try to link the dots you cannot explain:
firstly: the markets are rallying after greece passed the budget cuts making it less likely the european banking systems is going to implode ( and by the way, this is not just kicking the can, greece is tightening the belt and reducing the future liabilities, maybe too slowly but at least the EZ is doing somethign about its fiscal problems, wish we could say the same about the US ).
at the same time we had a strong reading from michigan and mainly ISM ( i actually warned you and others here that the previous drop of 6pct points was way too big and was due a rebound, it was probably the easiest forecast to make if one knows how the ism is compiled and recorded ), so now we have hopes/feelings/convictions of a soft patch rather than a double dip.
and of course with the markets stretched on the short side, you always going to get a sharper retracement, i ll repeat it again and again, but prices are a result of demand and supply, not of some intrinsic value..
about the price of oil and corn, most think that it was the right thing to do; ok, the price must have gone the right direction for a couple of days before then, but it s been going the wrong direction for at least a couple of yrs now - wasnt you saying that when fuel cost more than 4$ in america we always get a recession? so, isnt it a fair response to try to fight that? arent reserves something you store in order to use them in emergencies?
about gold, yeah a bit puzzling that it s going down where other assets rally, but again, it s you saying it s a ccy so shudnt behave like the spx, although most of the times it s correlated. but in a world where the fears of double dip and EZ banking system collapse have just been reduced ( if only for a few weeks ), the price of the safest haven has to come down. look at what happened to the chf - which is the closest thing to gold you can get these days, it s TWI dropped around 3%.. so risk on, most of times means 'dollar off' ( if inflationary pressures are building ), but at other times means 'safehavens off' ( considering the inflationary pressures shud come off a bit in light of what happened again in some of the commodity markets - oil, corn...
remember we even got a slow pmi out of china recently, and they been the biggest commodity buyers in last 2 yrs, so a cool down there in the economy might mean less pressures on prices ( ehy, after hiking few times this yr, there are already rumours of rate cuts in china now ..)
lastly, i need to ask you where you get this information:
You may argue that I have no way of proving this thesis, that it is all a conspiracy theory. You could argue that but you'd have a tough time explaining to me how Citi, JPM, GS & BAC only had one losing day at the prop desks, all four banks COMBINED, during the last quarter. What is that, a nine sigma event?
are you sure you re not confusing the terms trading desks and prop desks? ;-)
the clue shud be in the fact that all these banks actually have shut down their prop desk ( as per volker )..
trading desks always operate at profit, in the trading books you have all the market making activities and if banks werent making money there they could even stop the activity...( it s almost like a supermarket selling zero goods in a day )
prop desks are meant to have ups and downs - and hopefully a positive yr in the end, but their performances are much more volatile. their return most of times reflect the street returns ( read: hedge funds, macro ), so it would be incredible to see prop desks making money (and every single day, sharpe in the 'one thousand' region), while hedge funds are struggling - werent you making comments about how rubbish taylor, paulson and whoever else were this yr ( and the few guys who are positive are showing a sharpe of 1 to 2 at best)? i would double check your source of information, but please if you have a link, would be great if you could share it.
jw
Nice piece of fiction there JW laced with mistakes and inaccuracies. I can't decide whether I should take the time to point those out to you, or just let it go. No one grew richer trying to set people straight on a public forum before so I'm really torn. I'll let you know.
The only thing I will bother commenting on now because it's still ongoing and it jumped out of the page at me, is your naive belief that the can was not kicked down the road, Greece is tightening the belt and reducing future liabilities. You either don't understand that you can't solve a debt problem by piling on more debt, or that the austerity measures so far (and now more to come) have led to widening the gap between government spending and receipts (this is usually what happens when you push your economy down a depression spiral) and the debt to GDP ratio will be higher at the end of this bailout package than what it is today. So mush for not kicking the can down the road.
Greece will default within the next 24 months and return to the drachma. This will take place as soon as French and German banks push all their toxic Greek paper onto the back of the ECB and the job of looting Greece of all it's assets through "urgent privatization" is completed.
I have always found it amazing how is all your posts on here you tow the Big Bank, Big Corporation, Big Government party line. Lift your head up from the propaganda every now and then, you may get a different view of the world.
The only thing I will bother commenting on now because it's still ongoing and it jumped out of the page at me, is your naive belief that the can was not kicked down the road, Greece is tightening the belt and reducing future liabilities. You either don't understand that you can't solve a debt problem by piling on more debt, or that the austerity measures so far (and now more to come) have led to widening the gap between government spending and receipts (this is usually what happens when you push your economy down a depression spiral) and the debt to GDP ratio will be higher at the end of this bailout package than what it is today. So mush for not kicking the can down the road.
Greece will default within the next 24 months and return to the drachma. This will take place as soon as French and German banks push all their toxic Greek paper onto the back of the ECB and the job of looting Greece of all it's assets through "urgent privatization" is completed.
I have always found it amazing how is all your posts on here you tow the Big Bank, Big Corporation, Big Government party line. Lift your head up from the propaganda every now and then, you may get a different view of the world.
Now Menelaus the tone of your reply to JW is totally unclled for.
He's the only one on here who is prepared to debate you calmly, intelligently and, most importantly, politely and you treat him like this.
I think you really might have serious personality issues after all.
He's the only one on here who is prepared to debate you calmly, intelligently and, most importantly, politely and you treat him like this.
I think you really might have serious personality issues after all.
However, putting all that nastiness to one side for the sake of progessing further, isn't it true that both of you are indulging in what I believe is called " tne narrative fallacy" in financial circles.
That is you are both trying to put a read or a spin ( different in your two cases) on almost all the minutae of information that comes into the market daily.
As a consequence you even start to read meaning into data that is essentially just info. on random movements.
I can read both your scenario rationalisations and walk away none the wiser and perhaps even more torn and confused.
That is you are both trying to put a read or a spin ( different in your two cases) on almost all the minutae of information that comes into the market daily.
As a consequence you even start to read meaning into data that is essentially just info. on random movements.
I can read both your scenario rationalisations and walk away none the wiser and perhaps even more torn and confused.
FAFH, I don't know if you clued in yet but reading certain poster's stuff on here is OPTIONAL. I would highly suggest to you that if you feel "I have serious personality issues after all" that you stop reading my posts. Because if one were to come to the same conclusion as you did, yet continue not only to read but comment on someone's posts with "personality issues", then another could easily come to the conclusion that the second poster (that's you FAFH in case I lost you) has more serious personality issues than the first. Food for thought.
My post didn't go up to be debated, it went up to inform. If I'm unsure about something, I will ask for feedback and input, otherwise I could care less about "debate". May be I'm the sensitive type but labeling my post as having "inaccuracies" simply because someone is towing the government published propaganda is not something I take kindly to, but that's just me.
As far the actual JW post was concerned, I don't know if it's worth my time to respond anymore, when he quotes the "publicized" fiction in main stream financial media was that the market was bouncing in a better than expected reading from Michigan. One of these days when I stop laughing I will post why several other economic indicators, as important as the Michigan survey data if not more important, came in way worse than expected but got shrugged off. The Michigan number and the Greece bailout were cover for the FED, no more, no less.
And the comment on the Greek bailout as not kicking the can down the road, well it's just totally distorting reality, at a time when even shoe shine boys are coming to the conclusion that Greece will inevitably default. Why? Because the maths don't support any other solution, that's why.
If you are "confused" ask specific questions, and if I have time, I'll try to clear things up for you. Coming on here always as a Johnny come lately sharing what appears to be random thoughts won't get you too far. Cheers.
My post didn't go up to be debated, it went up to inform. If I'm unsure about something, I will ask for feedback and input, otherwise I could care less about "debate". May be I'm the sensitive type but labeling my post as having "inaccuracies" simply because someone is towing the government published propaganda is not something I take kindly to, but that's just me.
As far the actual JW post was concerned, I don't know if it's worth my time to respond anymore, when he quotes the "publicized" fiction in main stream financial media was that the market was bouncing in a better than expected reading from Michigan. One of these days when I stop laughing I will post why several other economic indicators, as important as the Michigan survey data if not more important, came in way worse than expected but got shrugged off. The Michigan number and the Greece bailout were cover for the FED, no more, no less.
And the comment on the Greek bailout as not kicking the can down the road, well it's just totally distorting reality, at a time when even shoe shine boys are coming to the conclusion that Greece will inevitably default. Why? Because the maths don't support any other solution, that's why.
If you are "confused" ask specific questions, and if I have time, I'll try to clear things up for you. Coming on here always as a Johnny come lately sharing what appears to be random thoughts won't get you too far. Cheers.
No Menelaus you're wrong I'm afraid to say.
If you want respect from your peers ( and you seem to want it) then you have to show respect.
Now JW has done nothing but show you respect and he is, in my opinion at least, certainly one of your peers.
The rest of us, I agree, would appear just to be interested bystanders and so I can understand to a large extent why you couldn't give a monkey's what we think.
And I agree that the likes of Benny are just a joke.
But you really do have to at least think about toning all this intellectual arrogance down a bit.
It's actually self defeating.
You're not getting the type of feedback you actually deserve for the obvious amount of effort you are putting into your posts. I mean here the economic academic parts of them, not the derogatory parts.
If you want respect from your peers ( and you seem to want it) then you have to show respect.
Now JW has done nothing but show you respect and he is, in my opinion at least, certainly one of your peers.
The rest of us, I agree, would appear just to be interested bystanders and so I can understand to a large extent why you couldn't give a monkey's what we think.
And I agree that the likes of Benny are just a joke.
But you really do have to at least think about toning all this intellectual arrogance down a bit.
It's actually self defeating.
You're not getting the type of feedback you actually deserve for the obvious amount of effort you are putting into your posts. I mean here the economic academic parts of them, not the derogatory parts.
FAFH, I'm really starting to worry about you or may be it takes a smarter person than me to reconcile the "you really might have personality issues after all" post with what you just posted right now. It matters not, it's for you to decide what this all means, I simply don't have the time nor patience to bother anymore.
I think in the future I will limit my contributions to the forum to "drive-by shootings" and correcting "inaccuracies" like the majority of posters on here. A lot safer that way.
Have a great evening.
I think in the future I will limit my contributions to the forum to "drive-by shootings" and correcting "inaccuracies" like the majority of posters on here. A lot safer that way.
Have a great evening.
few comments.
about greece. so all of sudden you ve become keynesist and start to advocate that a bigger budget (ie.extra spending) would be better to reduce the gap between spending and receipts. good to know that you swapped to this camp, so i guess what greece had done in 2007/8/9 to defend from the crises was correct in your view, at least in the intentions.
im of the opinion that things like increasing the retiring age, cutting some tax benefits and loopholes, it s something more than kicking the can. history repeas itself, only a couple of yrs ago we were supposed to witness the bankrupties of lithuania and latvia. the eur/lat 6mths forward was trading at parity ( from a 0.7070 parity level ), the offshore rates were above 40%, all of this pointing at a devaluation of the ccy of 40-50% .. today, 2yrs of austerity later, with real personal income dropped by 20-25% , their economy is back on track and the republic of latvia issue the 10yrs below spain. did i mention the ccy? the eur/lat 6mths forward is stuck with glue at spot levels..
about the greek privatizations.. of course it s an ambitious plan for greece, but it s good to try it, and although unlikely to generate the moneys written down in the forecasts, it would be still a meaningful bite in their debt burden. kicking the can would have been just lending them money and pay for their liabilities. or worst, letting them go to the drachma, witness their banks, insurances and most companies go bankrupt, see the country go into civil war. this while they still run a primary budget deficit ( not to mention the current account ) which means they re not autarchic at all, neither in terms of capitals nor of goods and services.
but to be honest i dont even care wheter greece will go bust or not within few yrs. and again, you re not saying anything new by saying they will ( i mean the probability given the cds levels is about 70-75% ). and you re not even saying anything new by putting me in the bullish camp. what we care though is what can happen in the next 1-2 months, i have no use of a longer term horizon. or werent you the one telling off pierrelarouge because he s been a bear since ever, and risk to finish his chips before his swan pass by?
to finish with greece, and to show how biased you are, this is my comment, with underlined the bits i think you didnt read:
"this is not just kicking the can, greece is tightening the belt and reducing the future liabilities, maybe too slowly but at least the EZ is doing somethign about its fiscal problems, wish we could say the same about the US", you would have got more the sense of my comment ( or if you want me to read the lines and the in betweens: the dollar is going to get punished for this )
about the indicators, although i mentioned the michigan, i even typed in capitals that the ISM was the main one to look at. it is the main indicator in each economy, no one looks at any other indicator more closely than this ( maybe, maybe, but only for traditional reasons, the nfp ). try to have a look at ism vs lagged spx and then go: wow! and i mean try to go back 40-50 yrs.. on top, the average ism since inception has been in the mid 52, and we re now seeing it at 56. it is a strong signal, nothing more nothing less but markets loved it ( same way they hated the massive drop to 53 on the previous reading ).
of course i forgot to mention that the other positive bits is been hearing bernanke putting on hold at least for the moment any plan for qe3. i remember another post where i mentioned how market operators were def in favour of a 'stop print' situation rather than 'further print'. i remember as well how you treated this view with your usual smugness even trying to ridicule the market operators ( who? john taylor of fxc, who s down so far this yr? or maybe griffin from citadel or paulson who are dropping money like it s out of fashion? )... guess what, the market operators rewarded the choice it seems. but ehy, who s john paulson or kenneth griffin if you could be menelaus? ;-)
mainly anyway, you tend to reply to questions with posts which avoid completely the question itself.
i asked you politely where did you get this piece of information about prop desks profits.
at the moment you re choosing to forget to reply. we all suspect why ( you can admit it, you made it up? ;-)
it would be polite as well to know why you thought of my previous post:
"Nice piece of fiction there JW laced with mistakes and inaccuracies." apart from the grek comment - which is a personal opinion, ie cannot count by definition as an inaccuracy, which part was inaccurate?
happy to hear your comments, although given the late hour i guess someone else will reply before you.
jw
about greece. so all of sudden you ve become keynesist and start to advocate that a bigger budget (ie.extra spending) would be better to reduce the gap between spending and receipts. good to know that you swapped to this camp, so i guess what greece had done in 2007/8/9 to defend from the crises was correct in your view, at least in the intentions.
im of the opinion that things like increasing the retiring age, cutting some tax benefits and loopholes, it s something more than kicking the can. history repeas itself, only a couple of yrs ago we were supposed to witness the bankrupties of lithuania and latvia. the eur/lat 6mths forward was trading at parity ( from a 0.7070 parity level ), the offshore rates were above 40%, all of this pointing at a devaluation of the ccy of 40-50% .. today, 2yrs of austerity later, with real personal income dropped by 20-25% , their economy is back on track and the republic of latvia issue the 10yrs below spain. did i mention the ccy? the eur/lat 6mths forward is stuck with glue at spot levels..
about the greek privatizations.. of course it s an ambitious plan for greece, but it s good to try it, and although unlikely to generate the moneys written down in the forecasts, it would be still a meaningful bite in their debt burden. kicking the can would have been just lending them money and pay for their liabilities. or worst, letting them go to the drachma, witness their banks, insurances and most companies go bankrupt, see the country go into civil war. this while they still run a primary budget deficit ( not to mention the current account ) which means they re not autarchic at all, neither in terms of capitals nor of goods and services.
but to be honest i dont even care wheter greece will go bust or not within few yrs. and again, you re not saying anything new by saying they will ( i mean the probability given the cds levels is about 70-75% ). and you re not even saying anything new by putting me in the bullish camp. what we care though is what can happen in the next 1-2 months, i have no use of a longer term horizon. or werent you the one telling off pierrelarouge because he s been a bear since ever, and risk to finish his chips before his swan pass by?
to finish with greece, and to show how biased you are, this is my comment, with underlined the bits i think you didnt read:
"this is not just kicking the can, greece is tightening the belt and reducing the future liabilities, maybe too slowly but at least the EZ is doing somethign about its fiscal problems, wish we could say the same about the US", you would have got more the sense of my comment ( or if you want me to read the lines and the in betweens: the dollar is going to get punished for this )
about the indicators, although i mentioned the michigan, i even typed in capitals that the ISM was the main one to look at. it is the main indicator in each economy, no one looks at any other indicator more closely than this ( maybe, maybe, but only for traditional reasons, the nfp ). try to have a look at ism vs lagged spx and then go: wow! and i mean try to go back 40-50 yrs.. on top, the average ism since inception has been in the mid 52, and we re now seeing it at 56. it is a strong signal, nothing more nothing less but markets loved it ( same way they hated the massive drop to 53 on the previous reading ).
of course i forgot to mention that the other positive bits is been hearing bernanke putting on hold at least for the moment any plan for qe3. i remember another post where i mentioned how market operators were def in favour of a 'stop print' situation rather than 'further print'. i remember as well how you treated this view with your usual smugness even trying to ridicule the market operators ( who? john taylor of fxc, who s down so far this yr? or maybe griffin from citadel or paulson who are dropping money like it s out of fashion? )... guess what, the market operators rewarded the choice it seems. but ehy, who s john paulson or kenneth griffin if you could be menelaus? ;-)
mainly anyway, you tend to reply to questions with posts which avoid completely the question itself.
i asked you politely where did you get this piece of information about prop desks profits.
at the moment you re choosing to forget to reply. we all suspect why ( you can admit it, you made it up? ;-)
it would be polite as well to know why you thought of my previous post:
"Nice piece of fiction there JW laced with mistakes and inaccuracies." apart from the grek comment - which is a personal opinion, ie cannot count by definition as an inaccuracy, which part was inaccurate?
happy to hear your comments, although given the late hour i guess someone else will reply before you.
jw
Well that is certainly giving Menelaus a dose of his own medicine.
I can't wait for his reply.
Please wake up early M.
This should be fun.
When acadebics spat, it can get very nasty and personal.
Egos and intellects clashing generally creates really interesting sparks.
And the added bonus is that the throw-off could be a really good learning exercise for us other plebs, in the polarities that exist in the " expert " interpretation of economic data.
I can't wait for his reply.
Please wake up early M.
This should be fun.
When acadebics spat, it can get very nasty and personal.
Egos and intellects clashing generally creates really interesting sparks.
And the added bonus is that the throw-off could be a really good learning exercise for us other plebs, in the polarities that exist in the " expert " interpretation of economic data.
The question is will M rise to the occasion like a trye champion, or will he just hide behind his last hissy fit post ?.
My money is on him taking on the challenge thrown down to him by JW .
Any odds compilers out there, experienced in intellect challenges ?
My money is on him taking on the challenge thrown down to him by JW .
Any odds compilers out there, experienced in intellect challenges ?
Btw the richest guy I've ever met wouldn't understand a word of what either of these two are saying.
So don't get a complex if it goes right over your head.
In fact probably try to find one or two of the very few things they do seem to agree on, and perhaps try some contrarian trades on those.
Remember LTCM even had Nobel Laureates in their armory.
So don't get a complex if it goes right over your head.
In fact probably try to find one or two of the very few things they do seem to agree on, and perhaps try some contrarian trades on those.
Remember LTCM even had Nobel Laureates in their armory.
I know, I know, I've got verbal or posting diarrhoea.
But I'm just so excited by what might just be coming up.
But I'm just so excited by what might just be coming up.
"MONEY TREE
04 Jul 11 22:48
the canadian is a gayer imo."
Best post of the thread, JW had the better content but trumped by the "brevity is the soul of wit" rule.
04 Jul 11 22:48
the canadian is a gayer imo."
Best post of the thread, JW had the better content but trumped by the "brevity is the soul of wit" rule.
If nothing else, this thread got the fanboy to lift up his head from his ipad for a few minutes. But I digress.....
Yes, I have some meetings to attend to this morning but I hope to find out the time to respond sometime late afternoon or in the evening. If for no other reason, JW got the Greek situation so bloody wrong, it makes me want to vomit (literally!!!). I will also explain why JW parroting the USG/FED propaganda line of the American economy improving (Michigan, ISM, etc.) is well, how shall I say..... bloody wrong again.
Just one request from JW. Please try when posting in the future not to use running sentences and paragraphs that seem to never end. It makes your posts very tough to read.
Yes, I have some meetings to attend to this morning but I hope to find out the time to respond sometime late afternoon or in the evening. If for no other reason, JW got the Greek situation so bloody wrong, it makes me want to vomit (literally!!!). I will also explain why JW parroting the USG/FED propaganda line of the American economy improving (Michigan, ISM, etc.) is well, how shall I say..... bloody wrong again.
Just one request from JW. Please try when posting in the future not to use running sentences and paragraphs that seem to never end. It makes your posts very tough to read.
Good on you M.
Don't let it spoil your meetings though.
Get your priorities right.
We'll all be patiently waiting in great anticipation.
Btw I don't think I'd like to be in Money Tree's shoes right now.
Don't let it spoil your meetings though.
Get your priorities right.
We'll all be patiently waiting in great anticipation.
Btw I don't think I'd like to be in Money Tree's shoes right now.
sorry polybot but if you cant beat them join them, and canadian seems to be so homophobic he is probably a supressed gayer.
I'm going to let the two people who clearly know more than me duke this out, and see if I can glean some info out of it. However I would like to say this:
Why is Menelaus giving JW sh1t about toeing the big bank/fed line (what he sees as a "bullish" stance), whereas nothing has been said about Menelaus toeing the Zero Hedge line (clearly a perma bear stance (or should that be the "realist" stance?)). Your opening post has pretty much all the same info that I have read over on zero hedge menelaus.
Remains to be seen who is right, and we might not know for a while yet.
Why is Menelaus giving JW sh1t about toeing the big bank/fed line (what he sees as a "bullish" stance), whereas nothing has been said about Menelaus toeing the Zero Hedge line (clearly a perma bear stance (or should that be the "realist" stance?)). Your opening post has pretty much all the same info that I have read over on zero hedge menelaus.
Remains to be seen who is right, and we might not know for a while yet.
JW, first let me say that I don't mind responding, I was never one to run away from a "intellectual challenge", but if we are to continue doing this (and keep FAFH entertained) then you have to start applying some critical thinking to your posts. I don't mind, but finding this kind of time to put together a well laid out rebuttal simply because you just finished reading the latest FED "central planning" propaganda piece in the Financial Times and decided to post about and present it as gospel is becoming onerous and also rather time consuming and boring.
I'm getting a little tired of you parroting the USG/FED "we're in recovery" party line especially since I have addressed that fallacy numerous times before, and especially since it appears your understanding of the American economy never seems to go beyond the headline. At the end of the day, you can believe what you want to believe, I'm quite comfortable with that, I'm here to state my case, hopefully make some posters aware and move on, not to engage in endless debate to try and convert people to a my way of thinking. It's not my money everyone is investing/trading on the markets, it's theirs, so they can do as they please.
This is a good day to post my rebuttal, the economic data released in the US this morning both came in worse than expected. May Factory Orders came in at 0.8pc missing expectations of 1.0pc and Durables (excluding transportation which is a far more important number since it strips out this very volatile segment) was revised lower from an initially expected 0.9pc, subsequently revised to 0.6pc to now printing at 0.2pc. I won't harp on this since you didn't have access to these numbers when you put up your posts but I do need to ask........where's the recovery?
Just to keep the debate focused and for the sake of brevity, I will concentrate in addressing two things: Greece & the legitimacy of your claim that the markets rebounded as strongly as they did on improved economic data (Michigan & ISM).
First the economic data.
It's amusing that you posted that the Michigan consumer confidence survey was a "strong" reading. That's what prompted me to post, "I'll respond when I stop laughing". Perhaps the reports that you read were different than mine, or you simply got carried away with your exuberance to argue the "I told you is only a soft spot" point but the Michigan survey printed at 71.5 missing expectations of 72.0, meaning consumers are now less confident despite steadily declining petrol prices. So much for the consumers themselves feeling we are in a soft patch.
Consumer sentiment worsens in June as outlook sours
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Consumer-sentiment-worsens-in-rb-266703697.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
For the record, I had no idea that the ISM was the main economic indicator to keep an eye on for an economy, nor did I know that it has a high correlation to the lagged SPX over many years. I'm glad I run into a someone as sharp as you on the forum of a gambling website to point it out to me (I hope at this point that your sarcasm meter is working) before I suffer some serious losses in my investment portfolio. I find it amazing that you are aware of the high correlation of this indicator and the market, yet you fail to connect the dots in figuring out that this is PRECISELY the number the FED needed to fudge in order to manipulate the market higher.
I don't question then number was massive beat, what I question given EVERYTHING ELSE we are observing, is the number REAL? Let's have a closer look.
Employment in the report increased strangely enough from 58.2 to 59.9 DESPITE consistently initial claims ( 12 consecutive 400K plus claims reports) and NFP printing worse than expectations and also always it seems upward (worse) revisions for the preceding reporting period. Prices dropping from 76.5 to 68.0 DESPITE CPI numbers edging up the other way. New Orders increasing from 51.0 to a massive 68.0 DESPITE a collapse in corresponding metrics in all the regional FED surveys turning negative. Also, the US ISM is miraculously indicating recovery when every other global growth is slowing. Manufacturing growth data from China is slowing down (weakest level reported since 2009), the EZ slipped to an 18 month low with only Germany not indicating contraction but even at that it was their slowest pace of growth in 17 months. Colour me a skeptic but the ISM number don't pass the smell test.
And here's the big kicker, hidden in the bowels of the report, Inventories went up from 48.7 to 54.1. Which means that if you took the difference between ISM Inventories and ISM New Orders, the implied ISM number is below 45 which makes is a huge miss and we're back where we started, a contraction. Where's the recovery?
If you don't believe me, here's what the masters of the universe over at Goldman Sacks had to say in their note to clients:
"The ISM beats expectations and rises in June. The details of the report, however, were weaker than the headline as more than half of the headline increase was due to an increase in inventories
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) rises unexpectedly in June, up 1.8 points to 55.3. As the median forecast and ourselves had looked for a decline, this is clearly an encouraging upside surprise. The composition of the report, however, was on the weaker side. Specifically, a sharp increase in the inventories index (from 48.7 to 54.1) explained 1.1 points of the 1.8 increase in the headline index. If anything, an increase in inventories is a negative for future activity. The remaining 0.7 point of the headline increase was due to small increases in new orders (by 0.6 point to 51.6), production (by 0.5 point to 54.5), supplier deliveries (0.6 point to 56.3) as well as a more sizable increase in employment (1.7 points to 59.9)."
At any rate, manufacturing improving, even if it was real which is not, is not enough to recover the US economy now. The cutbacks that in the pipeline at the State and local level massively dwarf the manufacturing gains (the layoffs in the public education sector are staggering). Unemployment claims have only one way to go and that's up.
JW, I can go one and talk about the US housing market entering a double dip, about their auto sector piling up inventories (they are building, but they are sitting on Dealer lots), about their structural employment issues that haven't been dealt with, about hitting the highest ever number of people on their food stamp program, about aggregate demand falling off a cliff with consumer spending and capital spending plunging, about their massive budget deficit but my post would grow from being a short essay to a small book. All lead to the same question.....where'e the recovery?
Next up, Greece. It will have to be a separate post however due to the lateness of the hour. To be honest though, I simply can't afford to be spending this kind of time responding to every bit of nonsense someone decides to throw on here and hope it sticks. And quite frankly in your case JW, you posted so many strawman arguments, so much misdirection, so much rubbish about the Greek/EZ situation, I'm having a hard time deciding where to begin. A crime is being committed against the Greek people (not their corrupt politicians and kleptocrats, I could care less about them), in full public view right in front of your nose, all for the "greater good" of seeing an ill founded, ill conceived, ill executed concept of a common currency called the euro survive and you are....applauding!!! You should be ashamed. I'm truly appalled, it reminded me of Lord Young arrogantly telling us to "suck it up - you've never had it so good".
As a general comment JW, you are by far the number one poster on here who demonstrates a blind faith in the system. You believe and present every published "official" number as gospel. In your view, every published "official" number must be true because the government says so. The government would never lie, would they? As a result, you consistently come one and try hard to impress by regurgitating that party line that all of us who have an interest in following this stuff already know by then from reading the financial main street media. I would be more impressed with you in the future if you applied some critical thinking to your posts, if you researched beyond the headline you are parroting, if your view reflected reality in the organic economy, not the make believe wealth created by the FED in the paper markets, if quite simply you did exactly what you ironically enough accuse me of doing (in a negative sense), that is posting.......MY OWN OPINION.
Yes, I haven't forgotten, I wouldn't dare leave without addressing your question. I was not ignoring you, I simply believed that you are capable of doing your own research, at least at a rudimentary level, without me having to post sources all the time. If I had to source every bit of information I posted on this forum, I'd have to give up my regular job and do this on a full time basis. But since we've come this far, allow me to help you. Very simple, go to the "big banks" websites and look up their SEC filings. Alternatively, google is your friend. Here's some examples of what came up after a couple of quick searches:
Bank of America Had Perfect Trading Period in First Quarter - Businessweek
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-05-05/bank-of-america-had-perfect-trading-period-in-first-quarter.html
JPMorgan Joins Bank of America in Perfect Record for First-Quarter Trading - Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-06/jpmorgan-joins-bank-of-america-in-perfect-record-for-first-quarter-trading.html
Since I spent all this time responding instead of shaking my head in disbelief and just walking away, I do want to leave you with a take-away: wake the f@#k up, the biggest manipulator of the markets was, is and will continue to remain......the FED. So I've learned over the years not to fight the FED in order to be on the right side of the trade but never once did I mistake the FED's meddling in the markets as real organic growth force fed (no pun intended) to the public with bogus and manipulated "indicators" that you love so much to quote. Peal the onion, look beyond the surface, it might change your perspective on how you see things.
I'm getting a little tired of you parroting the USG/FED "we're in recovery" party line especially since I have addressed that fallacy numerous times before, and especially since it appears your understanding of the American economy never seems to go beyond the headline. At the end of the day, you can believe what you want to believe, I'm quite comfortable with that, I'm here to state my case, hopefully make some posters aware and move on, not to engage in endless debate to try and convert people to a my way of thinking. It's not my money everyone is investing/trading on the markets, it's theirs, so they can do as they please.
This is a good day to post my rebuttal, the economic data released in the US this morning both came in worse than expected. May Factory Orders came in at 0.8pc missing expectations of 1.0pc and Durables (excluding transportation which is a far more important number since it strips out this very volatile segment) was revised lower from an initially expected 0.9pc, subsequently revised to 0.6pc to now printing at 0.2pc. I won't harp on this since you didn't have access to these numbers when you put up your posts but I do need to ask........where's the recovery?
Just to keep the debate focused and for the sake of brevity, I will concentrate in addressing two things: Greece & the legitimacy of your claim that the markets rebounded as strongly as they did on improved economic data (Michigan & ISM).
First the economic data.
It's amusing that you posted that the Michigan consumer confidence survey was a "strong" reading. That's what prompted me to post, "I'll respond when I stop laughing". Perhaps the reports that you read were different than mine, or you simply got carried away with your exuberance to argue the "I told you is only a soft spot" point but the Michigan survey printed at 71.5 missing expectations of 72.0, meaning consumers are now less confident despite steadily declining petrol prices. So much for the consumers themselves feeling we are in a soft patch.
Consumer sentiment worsens in June as outlook sours
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Consumer-sentiment-worsens-in-rb-266703697.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
For the record, I had no idea that the ISM was the main economic indicator to keep an eye on for an economy, nor did I know that it has a high correlation to the lagged SPX over many years. I'm glad I run into a someone as sharp as you on the forum of a gambling website to point it out to me (I hope at this point that your sarcasm meter is working) before I suffer some serious losses in my investment portfolio. I find it amazing that you are aware of the high correlation of this indicator and the market, yet you fail to connect the dots in figuring out that this is PRECISELY the number the FED needed to fudge in order to manipulate the market higher.
I don't question then number was massive beat, what I question given EVERYTHING ELSE we are observing, is the number REAL? Let's have a closer look.
Employment in the report increased strangely enough from 58.2 to 59.9 DESPITE consistently initial claims ( 12 consecutive 400K plus claims reports) and NFP printing worse than expectations and also always it seems upward (worse) revisions for the preceding reporting period. Prices dropping from 76.5 to 68.0 DESPITE CPI numbers edging up the other way. New Orders increasing from 51.0 to a massive 68.0 DESPITE a collapse in corresponding metrics in all the regional FED surveys turning negative. Also, the US ISM is miraculously indicating recovery when every other global growth is slowing. Manufacturing growth data from China is slowing down (weakest level reported since 2009), the EZ slipped to an 18 month low with only Germany not indicating contraction but even at that it was their slowest pace of growth in 17 months. Colour me a skeptic but the ISM number don't pass the smell test.
And here's the big kicker, hidden in the bowels of the report, Inventories went up from 48.7 to 54.1. Which means that if you took the difference between ISM Inventories and ISM New Orders, the implied ISM number is below 45 which makes is a huge miss and we're back where we started, a contraction. Where's the recovery?
If you don't believe me, here's what the masters of the universe over at Goldman Sacks had to say in their note to clients:
"The ISM beats expectations and rises in June. The details of the report, however, were weaker than the headline as more than half of the headline increase was due to an increase in inventories
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) rises unexpectedly in June, up 1.8 points to 55.3. As the median forecast and ourselves had looked for a decline, this is clearly an encouraging upside surprise. The composition of the report, however, was on the weaker side. Specifically, a sharp increase in the inventories index (from 48.7 to 54.1) explained 1.1 points of the 1.8 increase in the headline index. If anything, an increase in inventories is a negative for future activity. The remaining 0.7 point of the headline increase was due to small increases in new orders (by 0.6 point to 51.6), production (by 0.5 point to 54.5), supplier deliveries (0.6 point to 56.3) as well as a more sizable increase in employment (1.7 points to 59.9)."
At any rate, manufacturing improving, even if it was real which is not, is not enough to recover the US economy now. The cutbacks that in the pipeline at the State and local level massively dwarf the manufacturing gains (the layoffs in the public education sector are staggering). Unemployment claims have only one way to go and that's up.
JW, I can go one and talk about the US housing market entering a double dip, about their auto sector piling up inventories (they are building, but they are sitting on Dealer lots), about their structural employment issues that haven't been dealt with, about hitting the highest ever number of people on their food stamp program, about aggregate demand falling off a cliff with consumer spending and capital spending plunging, about their massive budget deficit but my post would grow from being a short essay to a small book. All lead to the same question.....where'e the recovery?
Next up, Greece. It will have to be a separate post however due to the lateness of the hour. To be honest though, I simply can't afford to be spending this kind of time responding to every bit of nonsense someone decides to throw on here and hope it sticks. And quite frankly in your case JW, you posted so many strawman arguments, so much misdirection, so much rubbish about the Greek/EZ situation, I'm having a hard time deciding where to begin. A crime is being committed against the Greek people (not their corrupt politicians and kleptocrats, I could care less about them), in full public view right in front of your nose, all for the "greater good" of seeing an ill founded, ill conceived, ill executed concept of a common currency called the euro survive and you are....applauding!!! You should be ashamed. I'm truly appalled, it reminded me of Lord Young arrogantly telling us to "suck it up - you've never had it so good".
As a general comment JW, you are by far the number one poster on here who demonstrates a blind faith in the system. You believe and present every published "official" number as gospel. In your view, every published "official" number must be true because the government says so. The government would never lie, would they? As a result, you consistently come one and try hard to impress by regurgitating that party line that all of us who have an interest in following this stuff already know by then from reading the financial main street media. I would be more impressed with you in the future if you applied some critical thinking to your posts, if you researched beyond the headline you are parroting, if your view reflected reality in the organic economy, not the make believe wealth created by the FED in the paper markets, if quite simply you did exactly what you ironically enough accuse me of doing (in a negative sense), that is posting.......MY OWN OPINION.
Yes, I haven't forgotten, I wouldn't dare leave without addressing your question. I was not ignoring you, I simply believed that you are capable of doing your own research, at least at a rudimentary level, without me having to post sources all the time. If I had to source every bit of information I posted on this forum, I'd have to give up my regular job and do this on a full time basis. But since we've come this far, allow me to help you. Very simple, go to the "big banks" websites and look up their SEC filings. Alternatively, google is your friend. Here's some examples of what came up after a couple of quick searches:
Bank of America Had Perfect Trading Period in First Quarter - Businessweek
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-05-05/bank-of-america-had-perfect-trading-period-in-first-quarter.html
JPMorgan Joins Bank of America in Perfect Record for First-Quarter Trading - Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-06/jpmorgan-joins-bank-of-america-in-perfect-record-for-first-quarter-trading.html
Since I spent all this time responding instead of shaking my head in disbelief and just walking away, I do want to leave you with a take-away: wake the f@#k up, the biggest manipulator of the markets was, is and will continue to remain......the FED. So I've learned over the years not to fight the FED in order to be on the right side of the trade but never once did I mistake the FED's meddling in the markets as real organic growth force fed (no pun intended) to the public with bogus and manipulated "indicators" that you love so much to quote. Peal the onion, look beyond the surface, it might change your perspective on how you see things.
Just checking in quickly and I see that I am going to have to free my calendar up somewhat to make the necessary time to read and take in M's latest posting in detail.
Looks worth the effort though summarily.
As i said you cannot fault M for effort. Mind boggling actually.
The guy must be an absolute workaholic. But you have to be in the business he's in, if you want to succeed at the highest levels.
Looks worth the effort though summarily.
As i said you cannot fault M for effort. Mind boggling actually.
The guy must be an absolute workaholic. But you have to be in the business he's in, if you want to succeed at the highest levels.
Btw M do you post at all on any of the actual sports gambling forums ?.
I would be most interested to hear your views on all the current PC imbroglio, particularly as it appears that you are a specialist in corporate finance at the highest senior mgt. levels.
Is BF doing a rational, intelligent thing here, or is it shooting itself in the foot ?
I would be most interested to hear your views on all the current PC imbroglio, particularly as it appears that you are a specialist in corporate finance at the highest senior mgt. levels.
Is BF doing a rational, intelligent thing here, or is it shooting itself in the foot ?
If you are inclined to opine on this matter, then I would suggest you do it though on one of the dedicated threads currently running on the general betting forum.
Just don't say you know me for God's sake.
That wouldn't be a wise move.
Just don't say you know me for God's sake.
That wouldn't be a wise move.
As usual melly has a bit each way, so that no matter which way things go he can "claim victory."
melly berates JW
As a general comment JW, you are by far the number one poster on here who demonstrates a blind faith in the system. You believe and present every published "official" number as gospel. In your view, every published "official" number must be true because the government says so. The government would never lie, would they? As a result, you consistently come one and try hard to impress by
melly tell JW he has blind faith in the govt figures and that to do this is wrong.
then melly uses the same govt figures to claim that HIS argument that the sky is falling in is the right one.
This is a good day to post my rebuttal, the economic data released in the US this morning both came in worse than expected. May Factory Orders came in at 0.8pc missing expectations of 1.0pc and Durables (excluding transportation which is a far more important number since it strips out this very volatile segment) was revised lower from an initially expected 0.9pc, subsequently revised to 0.6pc to now printing at 0.2pc. I won't harp on this since you didn't have access to these numbers when you put up your posts but I do need to ask........where's the recovery?
either the figures are to be believed or the are not. As usual melly u are having it all your own way in your desperation to be superior.
You took all the effort to post an epic response to ranting about the ultimate manipulaor the FED, but you cannot post a single trade?
Pretender.
melly berates JW
As a general comment JW, you are by far the number one poster on here who demonstrates a blind faith in the system. You believe and present every published "official" number as gospel. In your view, every published "official" number must be true because the government says so. The government would never lie, would they? As a result, you consistently come one and try hard to impress by
melly tell JW he has blind faith in the govt figures and that to do this is wrong.
then melly uses the same govt figures to claim that HIS argument that the sky is falling in is the right one.
This is a good day to post my rebuttal, the economic data released in the US this morning both came in worse than expected. May Factory Orders came in at 0.8pc missing expectations of 1.0pc and Durables (excluding transportation which is a far more important number since it strips out this very volatile segment) was revised lower from an initially expected 0.9pc, subsequently revised to 0.6pc to now printing at 0.2pc. I won't harp on this since you didn't have access to these numbers when you put up your posts but I do need to ask........where's the recovery?
either the figures are to be believed or the are not. As usual melly u are having it all your own way in your desperation to be superior.
You took all the effort to post an epic response to ranting about the ultimate manipulaor the FED, but you cannot post a single trade?
Pretender.
thanks for the reply menelaus. i ll try to keep it v short.
the main difference between me and you is not that i believe the fed and you doubt it.
i really dont care to know wheter the fed is lying or not. as the main difference between me and you is another one, and i ll repeat it over and over again.
there are people who believe in the existence of a true price, given by the intrisic value of something. and there are people who believe in the prices being mainly the result of demand and offer.
the 1st lot are known as analysts. the 2nd lot is known as traders.
so here we go: by formation you re an analyst - now climbed all the way up to directorship of an m&a boutique, but still an analyst. so you believe in intriscic values.
my formation is different, although we have similar academical background.
i was raised a market maker ( hence my stress on demand and supply and the value of liquidity ), and now im running a prop desk ( and we ll come to the difference later as you re very confused about it ). still, im and i always been a trader ( or if you want now, an investor ).
in my original comment, i mentioned the fact that the ism being good the market had hopes/feelings/convictions of a soft patch rather than a double dip. maybe i should have explained it better, but what i meant was: there are people now who hope, there are other who feel, other who are convinced we re due a recovery ( see the scaling up?). wheter im in one of these or not is meaningless. i was trying to explain why the market rallied, because this is exactly the exercise i do at work every moment, trying to see what move people to act in specific ways. and thats the only way to trade successfully, trust me.
lets take your ism example. assume you re one of my analyst at work and come back one minute after the release and explain me that in fact the number is only slightly better than expected. shud i go short then, i would ask you...yeah wd be your reply, it s a rubbish report only inventories rose. after a rally of 10 pts in the spx i wd ask you again, and you wd try to convince me again that the fed have manipulated the number. another 10 pts rally and i wd be sure in the future to use you as a reverse indicator ( trust me, this is how things work on a trading floor ).
is the fed manipulating the numbers ? most likely. but if the market trades on those releases as genuine, there s almost no point in doubting.
think of a traffic light, we all know to go thru with green and stop with red rite?
but lets assume you wake up tomorrow and you realize everyone is doing the opposite. you can think everyone is crazy and wrong, you might laugh at the idea of such a confused system, but how many cars you want to go thru before adapting? think of trading the same way, every morning/year/cycle i only try to understand what colour people are ready to cross the road with.
[ of course the other thing you need to understand is that market expectations is not what bloomberg consensus is. else you demonstrate: 1- that you dont know when and how this consensus estimates are made and 2- that you believe that analysts consensus is more important than traders/investors/fund managers expectations/worries/fears. have you ever wondered why you could have massive price movements even in absence of an upset in the release of a statistic ( take for example the Mpc and price of sterling or sonias every time we have the release of an "expected" unchanged rate in the uk )]
if you dont mind i ll leave the greece story behind, we re going to start a new conversation about the euro as a project and it would be of monstrous dimensions. we all agree greece is in trouble ( with a 75% chance of bankrupcy ), we disagree on what shud have been the latest move. again, i dont want to give a personal vote of confidence to the eu/imf decision, but i was just explaining that the market indeed gave its thumbs up. letting greece default on wednesday would have been calamitous for the banking stocks, and for the banking system in general ( think how exposed are the deut or the paribas of this world ), for prospects of growth everywhere in the world ( think lehman in 08 ), and for public order. look at the share price of the above banks and see what i mean.
if you dont mind we even going to avoid commenting on the price action of gold, i guess from the fact you didnt comment my previous post you finally found someone explanation on something valuable ( your understanding of the market moves as described in the 1st post was rather funny and unsophisticated, typical of someone who dont know the basic mechanics ).
lets concentrate tho on the banking trading profits. you posted the link, this way thinking you got out scot free. what a pity in none of those articles its mentioned the word 'proprietary'.
making up factoids and pass them for facts is a habit for people with weak arguments.
it does sound better to write down:
You may argue that I have no way of proving this thesis, that it is all a conspiracy theory. You could argue that but you'd have a tough time explaining to me how Citi, JPM, GS & BAC only had one losing day at the prop desks, all four banks COMBINED, during the last quarter. What is that, a nine sigma event?
ah, if only it was also accurate, but why spoil a good story?
of course, it could also mean that you have no idea what trading and what proprietary trading mean
(the 1st being the revenues a whole trading floor generate, ie client activity accounting for 90-95%, by definition always positive, ffs there s even mention in the article of 'fees'! ), at the end of the day you re in corporate finance, so you re not supposed to know all of this. although some common sense could have made you doubt i guess( 100pct of positive days? 5 bion in a quarter?? sharpe at 1,000??? proprietary return on equity above 100%???? who are these wizards?????)
so i give you the benefit of the doubt and pretend you just got confused. the fact you could have done it on purpose to put some extra weight behind your story, this is what would make me vomit.
by all means, keep posting your story, i always find them interesting and some time i even learn something new. if you learn to do the same with other people comments and ideas it s your own decision.
good luck,
jw.
ps: i never, never read the ft or alphaville.
the main difference between me and you is not that i believe the fed and you doubt it.
i really dont care to know wheter the fed is lying or not. as the main difference between me and you is another one, and i ll repeat it over and over again.
there are people who believe in the existence of a true price, given by the intrisic value of something. and there are people who believe in the prices being mainly the result of demand and offer.
the 1st lot are known as analysts. the 2nd lot is known as traders.
so here we go: by formation you re an analyst - now climbed all the way up to directorship of an m&a boutique, but still an analyst. so you believe in intriscic values.
my formation is different, although we have similar academical background.
i was raised a market maker ( hence my stress on demand and supply and the value of liquidity ), and now im running a prop desk ( and we ll come to the difference later as you re very confused about it ). still, im and i always been a trader ( or if you want now, an investor ).
in my original comment, i mentioned the fact that the ism being good the market had hopes/feelings/convictions of a soft patch rather than a double dip. maybe i should have explained it better, but what i meant was: there are people now who hope, there are other who feel, other who are convinced we re due a recovery ( see the scaling up?). wheter im in one of these or not is meaningless. i was trying to explain why the market rallied, because this is exactly the exercise i do at work every moment, trying to see what move people to act in specific ways. and thats the only way to trade successfully, trust me.
lets take your ism example. assume you re one of my analyst at work and come back one minute after the release and explain me that in fact the number is only slightly better than expected. shud i go short then, i would ask you...yeah wd be your reply, it s a rubbish report only inventories rose. after a rally of 10 pts in the spx i wd ask you again, and you wd try to convince me again that the fed have manipulated the number. another 10 pts rally and i wd be sure in the future to use you as a reverse indicator ( trust me, this is how things work on a trading floor ).
is the fed manipulating the numbers ? most likely. but if the market trades on those releases as genuine, there s almost no point in doubting.
think of a traffic light, we all know to go thru with green and stop with red rite?
but lets assume you wake up tomorrow and you realize everyone is doing the opposite. you can think everyone is crazy and wrong, you might laugh at the idea of such a confused system, but how many cars you want to go thru before adapting? think of trading the same way, every morning/year/cycle i only try to understand what colour people are ready to cross the road with.
[ of course the other thing you need to understand is that market expectations is not what bloomberg consensus is. else you demonstrate: 1- that you dont know when and how this consensus estimates are made and 2- that you believe that analysts consensus is more important than traders/investors/fund managers expectations/worries/fears. have you ever wondered why you could have massive price movements even in absence of an upset in the release of a statistic ( take for example the Mpc and price of sterling or sonias every time we have the release of an "expected" unchanged rate in the uk )]
if you dont mind i ll leave the greece story behind, we re going to start a new conversation about the euro as a project and it would be of monstrous dimensions. we all agree greece is in trouble ( with a 75% chance of bankrupcy ), we disagree on what shud have been the latest move. again, i dont want to give a personal vote of confidence to the eu/imf decision, but i was just explaining that the market indeed gave its thumbs up. letting greece default on wednesday would have been calamitous for the banking stocks, and for the banking system in general ( think how exposed are the deut or the paribas of this world ), for prospects of growth everywhere in the world ( think lehman in 08 ), and for public order. look at the share price of the above banks and see what i mean.
if you dont mind we even going to avoid commenting on the price action of gold, i guess from the fact you didnt comment my previous post you finally found someone explanation on something valuable ( your understanding of the market moves as described in the 1st post was rather funny and unsophisticated, typical of someone who dont know the basic mechanics ).
lets concentrate tho on the banking trading profits. you posted the link, this way thinking you got out scot free. what a pity in none of those articles its mentioned the word 'proprietary'.
making up factoids and pass them for facts is a habit for people with weak arguments.
it does sound better to write down:
You may argue that I have no way of proving this thesis, that it is all a conspiracy theory. You could argue that but you'd have a tough time explaining to me how Citi, JPM, GS & BAC only had one losing day at the prop desks, all four banks COMBINED, during the last quarter. What is that, a nine sigma event?
ah, if only it was also accurate, but why spoil a good story?
of course, it could also mean that you have no idea what trading and what proprietary trading mean
(the 1st being the revenues a whole trading floor generate, ie client activity accounting for 90-95%, by definition always positive, ffs there s even mention in the article of 'fees'! ), at the end of the day you re in corporate finance, so you re not supposed to know all of this. although some common sense could have made you doubt i guess( 100pct of positive days? 5 bion in a quarter?? sharpe at 1,000??? proprietary return on equity above 100%???? who are these wizards?????)
so i give you the benefit of the doubt and pretend you just got confused. the fact you could have done it on purpose to put some extra weight behind your story, this is what would make me vomit.
by all means, keep posting your story, i always find them interesting and some time i even learn something new. if you learn to do the same with other people comments and ideas it s your own decision.
good luck,
jw.
ps: i never, never read the ft or alphaville.
Oh God thank you very, very much.
This interchange between M and JW is just abslotutely delicious and enthralling.
You know I really think there might even be a movie in all this.
No seriously this is earnestly really good stuff.
I sincerely don't want it ever to end.
But unfortunately given both your high level job responsibilities, I can't see how it can continue at this heavy pace.
I'm reading a book at the moment by Roddy Boyd called " Fatal Risk" and your interchanges are so good that it has made me defer my reading of that today. And that is really a compliment, as I can hardly put that book down to go to sleep for a while.
I really do wish I could contribute meaningfully to the debate you're having.
But my academic qualifications and finance experiences absolute;y pale in comparison to you two and I would just embarass myself.
I can ( just) about follow most of the debate though, so that will have to do for me.
But I can tell you for a fact, I'm learning a lot from both of you.
The entrepreneurial, go for it streak in me finds JW's views more intrinsically appealing, but the deep down fundamentalist in me finds M's arguments equally compelling.
Congrats to you both for posting such high quality and superbly entertaining content.
This interchange between M and JW is just abslotutely delicious and enthralling.
You know I really think there might even be a movie in all this.
No seriously this is earnestly really good stuff.
I sincerely don't want it ever to end.
But unfortunately given both your high level job responsibilities, I can't see how it can continue at this heavy pace.
I'm reading a book at the moment by Roddy Boyd called " Fatal Risk" and your interchanges are so good that it has made me defer my reading of that today. And that is really a compliment, as I can hardly put that book down to go to sleep for a while.
I really do wish I could contribute meaningfully to the debate you're having.
But my academic qualifications and finance experiences absolute;y pale in comparison to you two and I would just embarass myself.
I can ( just) about follow most of the debate though, so that will have to do for me.
But I can tell you for a fact, I'm learning a lot from both of you.
The entrepreneurial, go for it streak in me finds JW's views more intrinsically appealing, but the deep down fundamentalist in me finds M's arguments equally compelling.
Congrats to you both for posting such high quality and superbly entertaining content.
Considering all the time I put into this, VERY DISAPPOINTING rebuttal by you JW.
I took your "its a soft spot, look at the indicators" position and blew it out of the water with analysis and hard data and the best you can do is come back with "may be I should have explained it better". Well, may be you should have because your original posts just turned into ashes.
I have news for you. The equities markets are no longer a price discovery mechanism. If you are okay with that but continue to trade with the flow then one day soon you'll discover that price discovery matters. If you believe illusion is real because everyone else believes is real, then good luck to you. You'll have a rude awakening soon.
I don't know what work you do, nor do I care. I posted this before, I'm in M&A responsible for the US market. So when I sit across from the table from a client trying to promote a deal and he asks me what I think of the state of the US economy, I can't regurgitate the party lines that you keep posting on here an are so wrong. They already know that from reading their morning daily. I have to tell them the truth which happens to be strikingly different than the illusion. If I don't do that, I'll be left with no clients in short order.
At any rate, I'll repeat with what I said in my earlier post, impress me with an original thought, not with parroting what I already read and know. So far, I must admit despite all your hubris "I'm a market market, therefore I KNOW" you've done nothing of the sort.
Good night.
I took your "its a soft spot, look at the indicators" position and blew it out of the water with analysis and hard data and the best you can do is come back with "may be I should have explained it better". Well, may be you should have because your original posts just turned into ashes.
I have news for you. The equities markets are no longer a price discovery mechanism. If you are okay with that but continue to trade with the flow then one day soon you'll discover that price discovery matters. If you believe illusion is real because everyone else believes is real, then good luck to you. You'll have a rude awakening soon.
I don't know what work you do, nor do I care. I posted this before, I'm in M&A responsible for the US market. So when I sit across from the table from a client trying to promote a deal and he asks me what I think of the state of the US economy, I can't regurgitate the party lines that you keep posting on here an are so wrong. They already know that from reading their morning daily. I have to tell them the truth which happens to be strikingly different than the illusion. If I don't do that, I'll be left with no clients in short order.
At any rate, I'll repeat with what I said in my earlier post, impress me with an original thought, not with parroting what I already read and know. So far, I must admit despite all your hubris "I'm a market market, therefore I KNOW" you've done nothing of the sort.
Good night.
Btw boys I've just alerted the general betting forum on your debate.
I really do think you need a bigger and better audience.
Two comments only really so far, one from two lightweights such as Benny and me.
A poor state of affairs.
PS Not ignoring you Maximum, but you get my point I hope.
I really do think you need a bigger and better audience.
Two comments only really so far, one from two lightweights such as Benny and me.
A poor state of affairs.
PS Not ignoring you Maximum, but you get my point I hope.
Fwiw another lightweight observation/comment on this intriguing spat, is that one would expect the " analyst " ( being M) to be the one with the long fuse and cool, even temperament and the " trader " (being JW) to be the one with the short fuse and hot, volatile temperament.
In fact it appears, to me at least, that we have the polar opposite on display.
In fact it appears, to me at least, that we have the polar opposite on display.
melly
I'm in M&A responsible for the US market. So when I sit across from the table from a client trying to promote a deal and he asks me what I think of the state of the US economy, I can't regurgitate the party lines that you keep posting on here an are so wrong.
just wondering melly if you fully inform the client that you sold out at the absolute bottom of the market?
since your such an honest guy i guess you always do this?
. I have to tell them the truth
I'm surprised you could actually spell that word.
I'm in M&A responsible for the US market.
So when I sit across from the table from a client trying to promote a deal and he asks me what I think of the state of the US economy, I can't regurgitate the party lines that you keep posting on here an are so wrong. just wondering melly if you fully inform the client that you sold out at the absolute bottom of the market?
since your such an honest guy i guess you always do this?
. I have to tell them the truth
I'm surprised you could actually spell that word.
JW, I reread your last post and your arrogance has no bounds for someone that just became a floor mop. Strange how you accuse me of that.
Your first response should simply have been "We program our algorithms to react to headlines. We don't understand what's behind the headline nor do we care since all brainless hedge fund managers do the same. But at least this way when the market moves, we move with it". And stop at that.
This was posted in your original response "i actually warned you and others here that the previous drop of 6pct points was way too big and was due a rebound, it was probably the easiest forecast to make if one knows how the ism is compiled and recorded" As it turns out, you are the one who apparently had no idea what the survey really said beyond the "buy the market" headline. You acknowledged the weakness in the data ONLY after I pointed it out to you.
This is how a debate ends. One poster concedes that the other is right. In your case you've done it unknowingly.
Here's what you posted: "is the fed manipulating the numbers ? most likely. but if the market trades on those releases as genuine, there s almost no point in doubting."
Here's what I posted in the original post : Here's the crux of the matter: "The FED is trying to create the illusion of recovery WITHOUT THE INFLATION" Also, " "the markets have dislocated from the real economy" and "don't fight the FED"
It's pretty hard not to come to the conclusion that you have come full circle and embraced that "funny and unsophisticated" position.
Don't bother responding. I'm getting a little tired of trying to debate positions that keep shifting in the wind. You can go on posting "what I really meant to say was" forever.
P.S. It must be hell for Benny trying to read these posts, he's probably starting to think they are written in chinese.
Your first response should simply have been "We program our algorithms to react to headlines. We don't understand what's behind the headline nor do we care since all brainless hedge fund managers do the same. But at least this way when the market moves, we move with it". And stop at that.
This was posted in your original response "i actually warned you and others here that the previous drop of 6pct points was way too big and was due a rebound, it was probably the easiest forecast to make if one knows how the ism is compiled and recorded" As it turns out, you are the one who apparently had no idea what the survey really said beyond the "buy the market" headline. You acknowledged the weakness in the data ONLY after I pointed it out to you.
This is how a debate ends. One poster concedes that the other is right. In your case you've done it unknowingly.
Here's what you posted: "is the fed manipulating the numbers ? most likely. but if the market trades on those releases as genuine, there s almost no point in doubting."
Here's what I posted in the original post : Here's the crux of the matter: "The FED is trying to create the illusion of recovery WITHOUT THE INFLATION" Also, " "the markets have dislocated from the real economy" and "don't fight the FED"
It's pretty hard not to come to the conclusion that you have come full circle and embraced that "funny and unsophisticated" position.
Don't bother responding. I'm getting a little tired of trying to debate positions that keep shifting in the wind. You can go on posting "what I really meant to say was" forever.
P.S. It must be hell for Benny trying to read these posts, he's probably starting to think they are written in chinese.
melly melly melly
your really back to your ignorant self are'nt you.
'JW, I reread your last post and your arrogance has no bounds "
shoud'nt that read " I melanus, my arrogance has no bounds,........
ps. Is not too hard to read posts written by a simpleton like you melly.
your really back to your ignorant self are'nt you.
'JW, I reread your last post and your arrogance has no bounds "
shoud'nt that read " I melanus, my arrogance has no bounds,........
ps. Is not too hard to read posts written by a simpleton like you melly.
If anyone (except Benny - it would be right over his head) wants to do something worthwhile this evening, take the time to watch this video and listen to what Jim Grant says in this brief interview on Bloomberg. Pay particular attention to what Mr Grant says starting at 2:18 min into the video. If you are not subscribing to Mr Grant's "Interest Rate Observer", I highly suggest you do. For those who don't have the time to watch this, or are too lazy to, allow me to sum it up. The FED is manipulating the markets and as a result they destroyed the market as a pricing mechanism.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/71274340/
Here's a video Benny can watch:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9igQ18GIqvc
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/71274340/
Here's a video Benny can watch:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9igQ18GIqvc
It all depends who ends up holding the bag at the end. The herd may turn left, it may turn right, it may go straight ahead or even go the opposite direction but inevitably the herd will end up where all herds inevitably do end up......in the slaughter house.
You know that "analyst" that JW's firm uses as a counter indicator and has since been demoted working in the mail room, they better not fire him. Because when they wake up one morning and the futures are down 1000 points, and they wiped out a couple of years gains overnight, he'd be the only chap in the firm who actually can explain to them what really happened. Mark my words....
Menelaus I think from memory , correct me if I'm wrong on this, that you have argued stongly and loudly in the past that you don't think the Fed is truly an independent structure.
In which case who do you think is really pulling the strings if this pricing destruction theory of yours is all correct ?.
For sure I could imagine some short term benefits to a few manipulators, but for the life of me I can't see any long term ones.
Or is it just a case of the usual Wall St/political short termism prevailing in all these types of financial matters.
Or are you going deeper and saying that this is a deliberate plot by a small group of Machiavellian plotters to crash the whole world banking/finance system and pick up the pieces for virtually free at the end of it all ?
In which case who do you think is really pulling the strings if this pricing destruction theory of yours is all correct ?.
For sure I could imagine some short term benefits to a few manipulators, but for the life of me I can't see any long term ones.
Or is it just a case of the usual Wall St/political short termism prevailing in all these types of financial matters.
Or are you going deeper and saying that this is a deliberate plot by a small group of Machiavellian plotters to crash the whole world banking/finance system and pick up the pieces for virtually free at the end of it all ?
Actually I'm saying neither. I'm not a conspiracy theorist despite what everyone thinks on here, nor do I believe these "masters of the universe" have the brains to be able to plan and pull off a sinister stunt like that. My view is a lot more simple and grounded in fact.
The FED is trying to protect the current fiat monetary system, plain and simple. You would too if you were given the absolute power to print an endless supply of money without having to back it up with productive labor and also be allowed to manipulate interest rates which are supposed to reflect risk. Money is created as debt (PAY ATTENTION HERE BENNY) and the "system" as such requires exponential credit growth to survive (that's what compounding interest does). The minute this exponential debt/credit/money growth stops the fiat monetary system collapses, no different than any other ponzi system would come to an end. This is why deflation is the FED's biggest enemy. But not deflation as most posters on here understand it and define it, bank balance sheet deflation. That DEFLATION. That's why most poster's on here struggle to understand the true relationship between deflation and hyperinflation (Benny first in line when it comes to that, he kept putting up confused posts about "is it deflation or hyperinflation" which I didn't bother to respond to).
Destroying the market's ability to be a true and well functioning price discovery mechanism is an unintended consequence but one that the FED will gladly see happen as opposed to the alternative....market crash.
The FED is trying to protect the current fiat monetary system, plain and simple. You would too if you were given the absolute power to print an endless supply of money without having to back it up with productive labor and also be allowed to manipulate interest rates which are supposed to reflect risk. Money is created as debt (PAY ATTENTION HERE BENNY) and the "system" as such requires exponential credit growth to survive (that's what compounding interest does). The minute this exponential debt/credit/money growth stops the fiat monetary system collapses, no different than any other ponzi system would come to an end. This is why deflation is the FED's biggest enemy. But not deflation as most posters on here understand it and define it, bank balance sheet deflation. That DEFLATION. That's why most poster's on here struggle to understand the true relationship between deflation and hyperinflation (Benny first in line when it comes to that, he kept putting up confused posts about "is it deflation or hyperinflation" which I didn't bother to respond to).
Destroying the market's ability to be a true and well functioning price discovery mechanism is an unintended consequence but one that the FED will gladly see happen as opposed to the alternative....market crash.
If that last para summary is what it is all about, then most of the general populace should and would be very, very comfortable and pleased with the Fed's intervention and efforts. Or am I still missing something here ?
melly melly melly
'The minute this exponential debt/credit/money growth stops the fiat monetary system collapses,"
mmmmmmmmmmm that didnt work too well after QE2 officially ended.Dow UP 500 points since then.
no collapse in USD
as usual melly , you just can't graduate from economics 101.[:x]
melly- you seem to be struggling without your canadian friend to back you up. Your posts are getting more and more .... well, how can I put this.....deluded.
'The minute this exponential debt/credit/money growth stops the fiat monetary system collapses,"
mmmmmmmmmmm that didnt work too well after QE2 officially ended.Dow UP 500 points since then.
no collapse in USD
as usual melly , you just can't graduate from economics 101.[:x]
melly- you seem to be struggling without your canadian friend to back you up. Your posts are getting more and more .... well, how can I put this.....deluded.
And dare I say it benny you're looking more infantile by the minute.
If you just stuck to your gripe that M is not a born trader, then you might get a few more supporters for your opinion.
Unfortunately the childish ( very unfunny btw) manner in which you are posting does you no favours at all.
If you just stuck to your gripe that M is not a born trader, then you might get a few more supporters for your opinion.
Unfortunately the childish ( very unfunny btw) manner in which you are posting does you no favours at all.
sorry for the late post, i made the incredible mistake to put the alarm clock to watch argentina and i m been treated to an abysmal game. anyway, lets move on.
first for fine as frogs hair
you have it completely wrong, mate. i dont know what qualities you need to have to be an analyst. but i can guarantee you that if you are a trader the last things you want to have is a temper ( and an ego ). you need to keep calm so to make always rationale decisions, when you start or when you cut a position ( thats the tough one ). the more experience you get under your belt, the more this relaxed attitude will show up. and thats how it s easy to spot a professional from an amateur.
now for menelaus
i think you have to rewind the thread and read everything.
you get so annoyed when someone comes to reply to your statements that you forget to understand the basic meaning. the whole point of my original comment was to explain why the market had rallied.
you want to believe it rallied because of some reasons ( mainly , the fed manipulating the stats, and the usg manipulating the markets pushing the short sellers in the corner with their bans and extra supplies ) i want to believe it s because of others reasons ( some kind of solution for greece and a rebound in activity ).
so now by definition, should we see a series of bad numbers ( or a capitulation of greece and whoever else is next in line ) i would think we would reverse mechanically the upmove ( spx dropping, dollar, Ts and CHF rising, euro and oil dropping , the lot ) as "my" engines of the rally stall. what about you? if "your" engines are the lies of the fed propping up the markets, when do you switch position? when bernanke gets replaced? and in fact, out of curiosity, are you long or short these days? ( dont worry im not going to use you as a reverse indicator )
it took you 6mths between sep08 and mar09 to finally agree with me that a US crises meant a counterintuitive dollar rally ( incidentally, missing all of it ). this because you often lack the awareness of how the market functions. it s nothing to be ashamed of, at the end of the day you do different thing for a living. so, sometimes having someone to remind you on how market positioning, liquidity, and psichology work, i would think it should make you happy.
else, really, i dont understand why you even post in a public forum.. to be told you re the clever-est person, or to actually try to grasp a piece of knowledge you didnt have?
two more notes.
1)we all can read the ism tables. we all can make our minds. but werent you the one in another post - probably a month ago - saying that the ism was horrible? and pointing out that one of the components that had dropped most was inventories ? was it because of japan? how do ism inventories behave and are they forward or backward looking? would be great to hear your opinion here.
2)the arrogant tone in my post was to respond to your initial tone. i would suggest you not to start it if you dont want to have it back. never, though, i ended up trying to insult you, so please be careful and use a proper language with me. you go on and on vs whippet and mr ben about their 'ad hominem' that you can do better than offending when you finished your arguments.
3)im not a market maker, im a proprietary trader ( i know it s very confusing to you, and it s all numbers going up and down, green and reds, you remind me of my g/friend. a clue: they re polar different), and not in a shop or a boutique, but in an investment bank. again, considering what you complain others telling you, i would suggest you learn to respect your forum counterparties.
anyway i thought everyone would appreciate this
from 'things that can make you go mmmm' , on the 28th june.
when menelaus get asked if 1-did he sell oil based on market manipulations 2- if he still was short 3- if he thought it was a temporary drop
YES, my post (and others in relation to the same issue I put up) should have been self-explanatory to those paying attention....Bernanke talks in FED code, and to those who can interpret it, it clearly meant Oil and PM's were about to be assaulted big time. They were. Going short was the correct play.
NO,the move still has legs, petrol prices in the US are not where they want them yet.
YES, but I like "transitory" better....but yes, easy/cheap oil is out of the ground and burned, gone FOREVER. The FED can print money but not Oil and geology wins at the end.
....
for someone who says he looks beyond the surface, deciding to go short a market ( the ALPHA market! )AGAINST his own strong opinions was a brave move. although it s so easy ( with hindsight ) to switch from 'fundamental-ist to 'surface-ist'
im not sure i would call brave the decision to keep short. but i got the feeling we re going to hear menelaus switched to long ...exactly, let me guess...at the time ISM printed a rebound! but werent we supposed to buy back when oil at the american pumps was pushed much lower?
if you werent real, we would have to make you up.
by the way, rubbish game, but i def buy falcao and amero from colombia for chelsea.
jw
first for fine as frogs hair
you have it completely wrong, mate. i dont know what qualities you need to have to be an analyst. but i can guarantee you that if you are a trader the last things you want to have is a temper ( and an ego ). you need to keep calm so to make always rationale decisions, when you start or when you cut a position ( thats the tough one ). the more experience you get under your belt, the more this relaxed attitude will show up. and thats how it s easy to spot a professional from an amateur.
now for menelaus
i think you have to rewind the thread and read everything.
you get so annoyed when someone comes to reply to your statements that you forget to understand the basic meaning. the whole point of my original comment was to explain why the market had rallied.
you want to believe it rallied because of some reasons ( mainly , the fed manipulating the stats, and the usg manipulating the markets pushing the short sellers in the corner with their bans and extra supplies ) i want to believe it s because of others reasons ( some kind of solution for greece and a rebound in activity ).
so now by definition, should we see a series of bad numbers ( or a capitulation of greece and whoever else is next in line ) i would think we would reverse mechanically the upmove ( spx dropping, dollar, Ts and CHF rising, euro and oil dropping , the lot ) as "my" engines of the rally stall. what about you? if "your" engines are the lies of the fed propping up the markets, when do you switch position? when bernanke gets replaced? and in fact, out of curiosity, are you long or short these days? ( dont worry im not going to use you as a reverse indicator )
it took you 6mths between sep08 and mar09 to finally agree with me that a US crises meant a counterintuitive dollar rally ( incidentally, missing all of it ). this because you often lack the awareness of how the market functions. it s nothing to be ashamed of, at the end of the day you do different thing for a living. so, sometimes having someone to remind you on how market positioning, liquidity, and psichology work, i would think it should make you happy.
else, really, i dont understand why you even post in a public forum.. to be told you re the clever-est person, or to actually try to grasp a piece of knowledge you didnt have?
two more notes.
1)we all can read the ism tables. we all can make our minds. but werent you the one in another post - probably a month ago - saying that the ism was horrible? and pointing out that one of the components that had dropped most was inventories ? was it because of japan? how do ism inventories behave and are they forward or backward looking? would be great to hear your opinion here.
2)the arrogant tone in my post was to respond to your initial tone. i would suggest you not to start it if you dont want to have it back. never, though, i ended up trying to insult you, so please be careful and use a proper language with me. you go on and on vs whippet and mr ben about their 'ad hominem' that you can do better than offending when you finished your arguments.
3)im not a market maker, im a proprietary trader ( i know it s very confusing to you, and it s all numbers going up and down, green and reds, you remind me of my g/friend. a clue: they re polar different), and not in a shop or a boutique, but in an investment bank. again, considering what you complain others telling you, i would suggest you learn to respect your forum counterparties.
anyway i thought everyone would appreciate this
from 'things that can make you go mmmm' , on the 28th june.
when menelaus get asked if 1-did he sell oil based on market manipulations 2- if he still was short 3- if he thought it was a temporary drop
YES, my post (and others in relation to the same issue I put up) should have been self-explanatory to those paying attention....Bernanke talks in FED code, and to those who can interpret it, it clearly meant Oil and PM's were about to be assaulted big time. They were. Going short was the correct play.
NO,the move still has legs, petrol prices in the US are not where they want them yet.
YES, but I like "transitory" better....but yes, easy/cheap oil is out of the ground and burned, gone FOREVER. The FED can print money but not Oil and geology wins at the end.
....
for someone who says he looks beyond the surface, deciding to go short a market ( the ALPHA market! )AGAINST his own strong opinions was a brave move. although it s so easy ( with hindsight ) to switch from 'fundamental-ist to 'surface-ist'
im not sure i would call brave the decision to keep short. but i got the feeling we re going to hear menelaus switched to long ...exactly, let me guess...at the time ISM printed a rebound! but werent we supposed to buy back when oil at the american pumps was pushed much lower?
if you werent real, we would have to make you up.
by the way, rubbish game, but i def buy falcao and amero from colombia for chelsea.
jw
what a pity froggy you do not apply your thoughs equally.
no mention of melly's comments of me? hardly a fair way to look at it is it?
your biased comments does you no favours at all.Neither does your lack of knowledge.
no mention of melly's comments of me? hardly a fair way to look at it is it?
your biased comments does you no favours at all.Neither does your lack of knowledge.
JW
You're right I was talking about the dealer stereotypes as portrayed in the media.
You know the dealing rooms with everyone running around, shouting fck, and generally behaving in loutish behaviour.
But we all know that isn't really the way it is, or do we ?
You're right I was talking about the dealer stereotypes as portrayed in the media.
You know the dealing rooms with everyone running around, shouting fck, and generally behaving in loutish behaviour.
But we all know that isn't really the way it is, or do we ?
Benny
I would agree that M's tirades against pretty much anybody on here who has the temerity to stand up to him or question him in any form or manner, are absolutely ridiculous.
But to post as you do in response is just as ridiculous.
That's all I'm saying.
You should take comfort in the fact that he picks on everybody not just you.
He is totally non-selective in this respect.
Ffs if Ben Bernanke came on here, or Tim Geithner, he would try to knee-cap them also if he felt they were not kneeing down and prostrating themselves to the altar of his market opinions and views.
But you do have to admit that that he is probably just a teensy weensy bit more knowledgeable about economic theorys, if nothing else, than anybody else who bothers to post on here.
JW probably beats him hands down on day to day market reading and trading, but probably not even he would claim to know more than M regarding theoretical economics.
I would agree that M's tirades against pretty much anybody on here who has the temerity to stand up to him or question him in any form or manner, are absolutely ridiculous.
But to post as you do in response is just as ridiculous.
That's all I'm saying.
You should take comfort in the fact that he picks on everybody not just you.
He is totally non-selective in this respect.
Ffs if Ben Bernanke came on here, or Tim Geithner, he would try to knee-cap them also if he felt they were not kneeing down and prostrating themselves to the altar of his market opinions and views.
But you do have to admit that that he is probably just a teensy weensy bit more knowledgeable about economic theorys, if nothing else, than anybody else who bothers to post on here.
JW probably beats him hands down on day to day market reading and trading, but probably not even he would claim to know more than M regarding theoretical economics.
I will respond to JW's post more fully later when I find time to do it justice. For starters though...
JW, you either have a very bad memory or as a minimum a very selective one. Your comment "it took you six months to agree with me blah blah blah...." is about the most outrageous lie ever posted on here. You are correct, you were the "strong dollar" advocate on here when I was posting that based on the FED's policies the USD ought to be shorted. The only thing you got wrong though in your post, I'm sure intentionally, is the time frame (nice piece of revisionist history by you). The discussion was taking place right around Mar 2009 and after, not before. Not a good time to be a USD bull when it went form around 89 at that time to about 75 today.
Since we're are bringing up history, I need to remind of our first major "encounter" on here is when you posted "there's no inflation to be seen for at least 5 years" which I in turn in my uncompromising style called "the worse prediction ever posted on here" (there's been worse since, Benny was not about back in those days, he hadn't saved enough money from his lemonade stand to start trading yet). You have been "challenging" my posts ever since, instead in view of how things unfolded in this crisis simply posting ...."Menelaus, regarding that inflation thing, you were right". Why is this important? Because inflation expectations (or lack of) at that critical time would have driven most decisions on investment strategy. So getting that important facet on how to play the markets so glaringly and badly wrong (unless you are posting one thing and trading another), must have lead to disaster for you in the markets.
Also, very briefly. When do I switch? Why switch? You are either too stupid, too proud, or too wanting to sell sophistication on here, when the ONLY strategy you needed to have implemented ever since the Chairman embarked in his monetary madness is....BUY THE F@#@ING DIP. And this worked despite a worsening economy, despite bad economic indicators, despite destroying price discovery, despite insurmountable debt issues, despite a still insolvent banking system, despite the explosive burden of trillions in unregulated derivatives hanging over the broad economy, despite natural disasters that would normally have a negative affect on the markets, despite the American housing market collapsing, I can go on but I think you get the point...... The markets have disconnected with the real economy. All there is now is FED manipulation and the herd following behind. (Did you watch the Jim Grant interview on Bloomberg I put up?)
Those who have simply just bought the dip since March 2009 have outstripped the performance of most major heavyweights in the market (Hendry, Paulson, Bacon, Taylor, I can go on and on) and also I suspect the "market players" that you keep spewing on about on here but can't name when asked, and probably also pseudo-market gurus like yourself who try to time the inflection points by reading data they evidently don't even understand. As long as everyone reacts the same way, who cares what the data really means.
More concerning our earlier debate later, if for no other reason than because I hate people like you that once they lose a debate, go back and "revise" the positions to their liking so we can start the debate all over again.
JW, you either have a very bad memory or as a minimum a very selective one. Your comment "it took you six months to agree with me blah blah blah...." is about the most outrageous lie ever posted on here. You are correct, you were the "strong dollar" advocate on here when I was posting that based on the FED's policies the USD ought to be shorted. The only thing you got wrong though in your post, I'm sure intentionally, is the time frame (nice piece of revisionist history by you). The discussion was taking place right around Mar 2009 and after, not before. Not a good time to be a USD bull when it went form around 89 at that time to about 75 today.
Since we're are bringing up history, I need to remind of our first major "encounter" on here is when you posted "there's no inflation to be seen for at least 5 years" which I in turn in my uncompromising style called "the worse prediction ever posted on here" (there's been worse since, Benny was not about back in those days, he hadn't saved enough money from his lemonade stand to start trading yet). You have been "challenging" my posts ever since, instead in view of how things unfolded in this crisis simply posting ...."Menelaus, regarding that inflation thing, you were right". Why is this important? Because inflation expectations (or lack of) at that critical time would have driven most decisions on investment strategy. So getting that important facet on how to play the markets so glaringly and badly wrong (unless you are posting one thing and trading another), must have lead to disaster for you in the markets.
Also, very briefly. When do I switch? Why switch? You are either too stupid, too proud, or too wanting to sell sophistication on here, when the ONLY strategy you needed to have implemented ever since the Chairman embarked in his monetary madness is....BUY THE F@#@ING DIP. And this worked despite a worsening economy, despite bad economic indicators, despite destroying price discovery, despite insurmountable debt issues, despite a still insolvent banking system, despite the explosive burden of trillions in unregulated derivatives hanging over the broad economy, despite natural disasters that would normally have a negative affect on the markets, despite the American housing market collapsing, I can go on but I think you get the point...... The markets have disconnected with the real economy. All there is now is FED manipulation and the herd following behind. (Did you watch the Jim Grant interview on Bloomberg I put up?)
Those who have simply just bought the dip since March 2009 have outstripped the performance of most major heavyweights in the market (Hendry, Paulson, Bacon, Taylor, I can go on and on) and also I suspect the "market players" that you keep spewing on about on here but can't name when asked, and probably also pseudo-market gurus like yourself who try to time the inflection points by reading data they evidently don't even understand. As long as everyone reacts the same way, who cares what the data really means.
More concerning our earlier debate later, if for no other reason than because I hate people like you that once they lose a debate, go back and "revise" the positions to their liking so we can start the debate all over again.
JW, first let me say, I don't have the time to engage in endless debates on here. And a debate becomes endless when the other party keeps shifting and redefining their position as the debate evolves by coming back with "may be I didn't make myself clear" or "may be I should have explained it better".
Here's what this debate was all about, and I'm going to paraphrase here for two reasons. One, the alternative is to go back and cut & paste direct quotes from the previous posts which is too time consuming and too difficult for others to follow. Two, the most brilliant litigation Lawyer I ever met once told me that successful litigators are those who argue their case in front of judge and jury in terms so simple that a six year old child can understand (this bodes well for Benny finally understanding a post on this thread). So here it goes...
The essence of the original post that started this entire thread was captured in my statement " the FED is trying to create the illusion of recovery without the inflation". Prefacing this as "the crux of the matter" perhaps should have been your clue. The "without inflation" was the real money line in my statement but it went mostly unnoticed. That's neither here, nor there.
Predictably, as you most often do whenever I post something, in your come like St. George riding on a white horse and carrying a long spear to slay the dragon. Your position: "It's a soft spot. I TOLD YOU SO BEFORE, the indicators are showing STRONG READINGS from Michigan to ISM"
I proceed to debunk the fiction you posted. The Michigan number printed negative so what you posted was a glaring mistake and the ISM number was only positive on the surface.
You couldn't challenge anything I posted, the analysis spoke for itself, but you come back with "yes, of course I KNEW that if you looked at inventories the data looked weak BUT it doesn't matter (funny how you didn't say that in the first place if you knew), it's confidence that counts, improving sentiment driven by the headline that matters". In other words, yes the FED is manipulating the market and we the herd follow (which intrinsically there's nothing wrong with, provided you can head to the exits first when someday the inevitable happens and the FED loses control of this charade). You then go on to totally hang yourself with this admission: "is the fed manipulating the numbers ? most likely", not realizing this debate comes to an end right there and then because THAT WAS MY ENTIRE PREMISE TO BEGIN WITH that you so vehemently attacked.
JW, for me this entire "debate" was quite illuminating. Not about what was actually debated, but rather the issue you skirted and avoided debating. And certainly not in the sense that most readers ought to be questioning your credentials as a trader after posting utter nonsense, but your moral values as a person. Anyone who believes that an entire society should be pushed into destitute and depression otherwise it would be "calamitous for banking stocks" (I'm not paraphrasing here, this is direct quote of what you posted) should really have their priorities in life and their moral code re-examined.
Here's what this debate was all about, and I'm going to paraphrase here for two reasons. One, the alternative is to go back and cut & paste direct quotes from the previous posts which is too time consuming and too difficult for others to follow. Two, the most brilliant litigation Lawyer I ever met once told me that successful litigators are those who argue their case in front of judge and jury in terms so simple that a six year old child can understand (this bodes well for Benny finally understanding a post on this thread). So here it goes...
The essence of the original post that started this entire thread was captured in my statement " the FED is trying to create the illusion of recovery without the inflation". Prefacing this as "the crux of the matter" perhaps should have been your clue. The "without inflation" was the real money line in my statement but it went mostly unnoticed. That's neither here, nor there.
Predictably, as you most often do whenever I post something, in your come like St. George riding on a white horse and carrying a long spear to slay the dragon. Your position: "It's a soft spot. I TOLD YOU SO BEFORE, the indicators are showing STRONG READINGS from Michigan to ISM"
I proceed to debunk the fiction you posted. The Michigan number printed negative so what you posted was a glaring mistake and the ISM number was only positive on the surface.
You couldn't challenge anything I posted, the analysis spoke for itself, but you come back with "yes, of course I KNEW that if you looked at inventories the data looked weak BUT it doesn't matter (funny how you didn't say that in the first place if you knew), it's confidence that counts, improving sentiment driven by the headline that matters". In other words, yes the FED is manipulating the market and we the herd follow (which intrinsically there's nothing wrong with, provided you can head to the exits first when someday the inevitable happens and the FED loses control of this charade). You then go on to totally hang yourself with this admission: "is the fed manipulating the numbers ? most likely", not realizing this debate comes to an end right there and then because THAT WAS MY ENTIRE PREMISE TO BEGIN WITH that you so vehemently attacked.
JW, for me this entire "debate" was quite illuminating. Not about what was actually debated, but rather the issue you skirted and avoided debating. And certainly not in the sense that most readers ought to be questioning your credentials as a trader after posting utter nonsense, but your moral values as a person. Anyone who believes that an entire society should be pushed into destitute and depression otherwise it would be "calamitous for banking stocks" (I'm not paraphrasing here, this is direct quote of what you posted) should really have their priorities in life and their moral code re-examined.
Dow up another 70 last night.
If job numbers exceed expectation tonight expect 13,000 next week. That pesky Bernake again![smiley:crazy]
If job numbers exceed expectation tonight expect 13,000 next week. That pesky Bernake again![smiley:crazy]
Sometimes you have to step back and say...."you know, there's some really amazingly stupid people in this world"....after that last post, this is one of those times.
Bottom line it's all about job numbers isn't it ?
If people don't have jobs they won't spend. No growing consumer demand no real growth in the economy.
Simple economics ?.
Probably not, but I'm willing to learn from M as to why not.
I'm not proud. I am effectively economically illiterate like 99.9999999& of the world's population, which would include an awful lot of very rich people who got rich despite not understanding any economics at all.
If people don't have jobs they won't spend. No growing consumer demand no real growth in the economy.
Simple economics ?.
Probably not, but I'm willing to learn from M as to why not.
I'm not proud. I am effectively economically illiterate like 99.9999999& of the world's population, which would include an awful lot of very rich people who got rich despite not understanding any economics at all.
I'm starting to get about four hours a sleep a night. That can't be good.
FAFH, you are one my favorite posters on here to be honest, despite you continuing to give me thinly veiled shots. But I will have to disagree. No one is getting rich without understanding economics, paper wealth is not REAL wealth and most people are about to find out the hard way....except Benny of course, he makes money in his sleep.. What a moron.
What we are experiencing is unprecedented.....and it will not end well. That you can be sure of, so.........protect yourself.
Job numbers??? Don't get me going. If you peel the onion, there's nothing but rot underneath. I can elaborate but.....no one seems to understand or care.
Good night, I'm really tired, I have to get some sleep.
FAFH, you are one my favorite posters on here to be honest, despite you continuing to give me thinly veiled shots. But I will have to disagree. No one is getting rich without understanding economics, paper wealth is not REAL wealth and most people are about to find out the hard way....except Benny of course, he makes money in his sleep.
. What a moron.What we are experiencing is unprecedented.....and it will not end well. That you can be sure of, so.........protect yourself.
Job numbers??? Don't get me going. If you peel the onion, there's nothing but rot underneath. I can elaborate but.....no one seems to understand or care.
Good night, I'm really tired, I have to get some sleep.
Menelaus
Enjoy your well earned sleep.
When you wake up, refreshed and bushy tailed I hope, you can further explain the following to me.
I'm not talking about the accuracy of published job figures etc etc.
I'm just asking whether it is basic economic sense to say that if the mass of people don't have real, secure jobs and real ongoing secure income flows from such jobs, they will not spend aggressively. And if they don't spend, who are all the manufacturers going to sell their products to, and so then the circle is complete isn't it ?
Btw I'm rich, totally unleveraged, and could not earn another dollar in interest for the rest of my life without worrying about it.
I am, however, worried about the destruction of all conventional asset classes by hyperinflation, as I don't currently own many wheelbarrows. And also, unnecessary to point out though it is, it's pretty obvious that I know nothing about economic theory. My money is professionally managed for me, and I just hope they all know what they are doing. I have requested low risk, low volatility type investments. I kave even asked for some Chicken Little type hedging.
Is that all the best I can intelligently do ?
Enjoy your well earned sleep.
When you wake up, refreshed and bushy tailed I hope, you can further explain the following to me.
I'm not talking about the accuracy of published job figures etc etc.
I'm just asking whether it is basic economic sense to say that if the mass of people don't have real, secure jobs and real ongoing secure income flows from such jobs, they will not spend aggressively. And if they don't spend, who are all the manufacturers going to sell their products to, and so then the circle is complete isn't it ?
Btw I'm rich, totally unleveraged, and could not earn another dollar in interest for the rest of my life without worrying about it.
I am, however, worried about the destruction of all conventional asset classes by hyperinflation, as I don't currently own many wheelbarrows. And also, unnecessary to point out though it is, it's pretty obvious that I know nothing about economic theory. My money is professionally managed for me, and I just hope they all know what they are doing. I have requested low risk, low volatility type investments. I kave even asked for some Chicken Little type hedging.
Is that all the best I can intelligently do ?
FASH, I think you know and understand a lot more than you lead on on this forum. I only have one thing to say to you because my posts in the future will be far and few in between. This road can ONLY end in one place. Hyperinflation. If there's one thing I'm certain about is that. If you think you are protected against that scenario, then fine. If not, you better start thinking about it.
Good night.
Good night.
That was what I was scared you might say.
And it reassures me not one little bit.
How do I really know I'm doing the right thing ever, if the powers that control Wall St don't seem to know either.?
As I said on another post I've just finished the Roddy Boyd book on the collapse and Govt takeover of AIG.
It just scares the hell out of me how incompetent so-called experts can be. I mean the FP division of AIG in particular.
I think I'll just go and hit the cocktail cabinet again.
And it reassures me not one little bit.
How do I really know I'm doing the right thing ever, if the powers that control Wall St don't seem to know either.?
As I said on another post I've just finished the Roddy Boyd book on the collapse and Govt takeover of AIG.
It just scares the hell out of me how incompetent so-called experts can be. I mean the FP division of AIG in particular.
I think I'll just go and hit the cocktail cabinet again.
ok my last reply on the subject, hopefully
menelaus, why you got so upset and against me for turning bullish ( by the way, i was explaining why the market had turned bullish, you have comprehension problems otherwise), when we know now you been long all the way! in fact even better, you been buying the fkng dip! ( you watch too many cartoons, if you knw what i mean, and trying to be funny using other people s lines is the unfunniest thing ever )..
problems sorted, you re bullish and you keep buying, we re in the same camp. although you give the wrong impression most of the times, im not alone here remembering from you only the calls about shorting apple, or the spx, or general electric, or goldman sachs, once even gold before the fomc, or the alpha commodity: the oil! so you were buying the dip all the times while infact you been selling the rallies instead - which is diametrically the opposite strategy - you cheeky thing..but dont worry, it s all the same.
and it was sooo easy too, just calculating exactly what is the dip and how long would extend, and voila', the new king of the markets is borne: venite adoremus!
ehy, i cannot give a damn what you re doing, you re clearly lost in all of this ( to put it in the same context as you put it to benny, i ll take you seriously when you finally get the difference between trading revenues and proprietary trading revenues; or between buying the dip and selling the rally ), but in all of this you showed the other typical trait of the analyst: saying two things at the same time, claiming in the future to have called the right thing in any case. " the market will drop catastrophically, not before rallying tho" covers any scenario, as if it rallies, you said it, if it drops, the catastrophically will weigh much more than anything else. well done, you cracked it.
i have to conclude with a reference to your other main problem, which is your continuos lying, even in front of evidence.
firstly, the call on the dollar strenght was made here in september, cable was in the high 70s/low80s and eur in the mid 40s. that s for the record. we were discussing every day - few times a day - about markets, hyperinflation, spx going to zero, corporate america been bust, and ccies. easy for me to remember as i was on garden leave at the time and had time to type few posts a day, and we had a few interesting conversations with that guy , mr old, or mr big , the retired man who annoyed you every thread. you were even asking me what was my target ( 1.20 i think i mentioned, i wish i sticked to it ) and you were telling me to be careful as keeping the dollar was like holding a bomb in your hands, very powerful but risking to explode in my face anytime.
couldnt have been march as i closed most of my shorts in the december euro rally ( locking anyway an almost 20 big figures movement ), and because in march i was at the new work place where i dont have betfair access to fk around all day onthe forum ( posting only in evenings and at night ).
it did take you 6mths to understand the dynamics that link carry trading to liquidity to repatriation issues to volatility ( currency trading, in a nutshell ).. one day you finally decided i was right and you even told me you brought some of my posts to your office as they were very explanatory.
bad luck you got someone with a strong memory on the other side of the argument.
but lying comes very natural for you, to support your otherwise weak arguments.
so we have that the american banks have a 100% score on their prop trading ( i didnt see any apologies for this misinformation ); we have the michigan which was a negative number ( at 71.5, a small drop from 71.8; by the way guess what, i did confuse it with the chicago, as michigan comes out 2wks earlier, so here come my apologies ); we have that the ism was clearly manipulated as all the other regionals were weak ( michigan at 71,5 stable and on the highs, chicago higher at 61.1 up 5 pts from prev month, milwakee better than expected, richmond idem; all in the same 2-3 days ).
we have to hear how you go short oil , and when asked if you closed the position hear you expressively say no, only one day later to read in other posts that yeah of course you closed it!
we have to read that you go short gold thru the gll, and you close it at the best price after the fed release, not realizing that whoever got bloomberg can check the quotes and see who traded and at what price (unless of course, you have the license of market maker..;-), v funny, boom!
now about inflation.
in the us the cpi went from 220 to 226 in the last 3yrs. that s not what i call inflation ( and dont give me the story of the higher bills, in the same thread where you mention the falling house prices ).
you were banking on inflation as money supply was increasing, but i always been of the opinion that if there s an output gap in the economy you cannot have inflation. output gap is closing now, cpi is now in the mid 3s.
for the records, in aug/sep 2008 the cpi (calculated with the methods you always dispute) was running above 5%..so an average 2% rate when we were used to a 5% world - same calculation agents- it s what i call a significant drop. ehy, at the end of the day, in the thread where you were laughing at bill gross, werent you implicitly saying that shorting Ts was a ridicolous trade?
lastly
about the fact that i conceded that the fed manipulates or not the releases.
i hope you realized i did the same with you as what you probably do with your daughters, in order to keep them happy and quiet.
good luck anyway tomorrow with the nfp and the rest. to you and all the others.
i wont post for a couple of days, so you re welcome to comment in themost abusive way possible knowing you wont get a reply from me.
jw.
menelaus, why you got so upset and against me for turning bullish ( by the way, i was explaining why the market had turned bullish, you have comprehension problems otherwise), when we know now you been long all the way! in fact even better, you been buying the fkng dip! ( you watch too many cartoons, if you knw what i mean, and trying to be funny using other people s lines is the unfunniest thing ever )..
problems sorted, you re bullish and you keep buying, we re in the same camp. although you give the wrong impression most of the times, im not alone here remembering from you only the calls about shorting apple, or the spx, or general electric, or goldman sachs, once even gold before the fomc, or the alpha commodity: the oil! so you were buying the dip all the times while infact you been selling the rallies instead - which is diametrically the opposite strategy - you cheeky thing..but dont worry, it s all the same.
and it was sooo easy too, just calculating exactly what is the dip and how long would extend, and voila', the new king of the markets is borne: venite adoremus!
ehy, i cannot give a damn what you re doing, you re clearly lost in all of this ( to put it in the same context as you put it to benny, i ll take you seriously when you finally get the difference between trading revenues and proprietary trading revenues; or between buying the dip and selling the rally ), but in all of this you showed the other typical trait of the analyst: saying two things at the same time, claiming in the future to have called the right thing in any case. " the market will drop catastrophically, not before rallying tho" covers any scenario, as if it rallies, you said it, if it drops, the catastrophically will weigh much more than anything else. well done, you cracked it.
i have to conclude with a reference to your other main problem, which is your continuos lying, even in front of evidence.
firstly, the call on the dollar strenght was made here in september, cable was in the high 70s/low80s and eur in the mid 40s. that s for the record. we were discussing every day - few times a day - about markets, hyperinflation, spx going to zero, corporate america been bust, and ccies. easy for me to remember as i was on garden leave at the time and had time to type few posts a day, and we had a few interesting conversations with that guy , mr old, or mr big , the retired man who annoyed you every thread. you were even asking me what was my target ( 1.20 i think i mentioned, i wish i sticked to it ) and you were telling me to be careful as keeping the dollar was like holding a bomb in your hands, very powerful but risking to explode in my face anytime.
couldnt have been march as i closed most of my shorts in the december euro rally ( locking anyway an almost 20 big figures movement ), and because in march i was at the new work place where i dont have betfair access to fk around all day onthe forum ( posting only in evenings and at night ).
it did take you 6mths to understand the dynamics that link carry trading to liquidity to repatriation issues to volatility ( currency trading, in a nutshell ).. one day you finally decided i was right and you even told me you brought some of my posts to your office as they were very explanatory.
bad luck you got someone with a strong memory on the other side of the argument.
but lying comes very natural for you, to support your otherwise weak arguments.
so we have that the american banks have a 100% score on their prop trading ( i didnt see any apologies for this misinformation ); we have the michigan which was a negative number ( at 71.5, a small drop from 71.8; by the way guess what, i did confuse it with the chicago, as michigan comes out 2wks earlier, so here come my apologies ); we have that the ism was clearly manipulated as all the other regionals were weak ( michigan at 71,5 stable and on the highs, chicago higher at 61.1 up 5 pts from prev month, milwakee better than expected, richmond idem; all in the same 2-3 days ).
we have to hear how you go short oil , and when asked if you closed the position hear you expressively say no, only one day later to read in other posts that yeah of course you closed it!
we have to read that you go short gold thru the gll, and you close it at the best price after the fed release, not realizing that whoever got bloomberg can check the quotes and see who traded and at what price (unless of course, you have the license of market maker..;-), v funny, boom!
now about inflation.
in the us the cpi went from 220 to 226 in the last 3yrs. that s not what i call inflation ( and dont give me the story of the higher bills, in the same thread where you mention the falling house prices ).
you were banking on inflation as money supply was increasing, but i always been of the opinion that if there s an output gap in the economy you cannot have inflation. output gap is closing now, cpi is now in the mid 3s.
for the records, in aug/sep 2008 the cpi (calculated with the methods you always dispute) was running above 5%..so an average 2% rate when we were used to a 5% world - same calculation agents- it s what i call a significant drop. ehy, at the end of the day, in the thread where you were laughing at bill gross, werent you implicitly saying that shorting Ts was a ridicolous trade?
lastly
about the fact that i conceded that the fed manipulates or not the releases.
i hope you realized i did the same with you as what you probably do with your daughters, in order to keep them happy and quiet.
good luck anyway tomorrow with the nfp and the rest. to you and all the others.
i wont post for a couple of days, so you re welcome to comment in themost abusive way possible knowing you wont get a reply from me.
jw.
Btw JW in dealing rooms you just front run don't you ?
On prop desks you have to have some sort of original thought ?
On prop desks you have to have some sort of original thought ?
what a beautiful post by JW there.
game set and match to JW. Melly you now face relegation to the juniors.
game set and match to JW. Melly you now face relegation to the juniors.
I have only one deep question on your last post.
What on earth is " garden leave " ?
Btw I also have to admit that you do a very nice line of vitriol. Maybe not quite up to M's standards but getting there.
Must come with the territory.
What on earth is " garden leave " ?
Btw I also have to admit that you do a very nice line of vitriol. Maybe not quite up to M's standards but getting there.
Must come with the territory.
Benny
I can see you're obviously not an experienced sports better.
To use a very, very tired cliche. It's not over till the fat lady sings.
Btw do you understand ALL this stuff.
I sure as hell don't.
Makes me feel totally inadequate.
Not you ?
I can see you're obviously not an experienced sports better.
To use a very, very tired cliche. It's not over till the fat lady sings.
Btw do you understand ALL this stuff.
I sure as hell don't.
Makes me feel totally inadequate.
Not you ?
JW, just a few points so we can bring this to a close:
1. Any fool can come one here and "turn bullish" at the tail end of the sharpest turn around we've ever seen on the markets. Next time impress me by posting before the move, not after.
2. You can also impress me by posting an original thought one of these days, not parroting what the financial blow horns are saying.
3. Next time you debate have the decency to debate the facts, to debate exactly what the other person has said and argued, not make up things as you go along. Putting words in the other persons mouth and then denigrating them is not debating, it is lying.
4. You apologized about getting something wrong, surely it can't be. You confused one survey for the other, surely it can't be. The great JW confused about something, surely it can't be. It took you five posts to admit it but at least finally you did, may be there's hope for you after all.
5. You sound confused about inflation, no wait, wait, may be you mean inflation excluding food and fuel, that inflation, now I get it. How did that "no inflation for five years" work out for you?
6. You conceded directly by saying this:
"about the fact that i conceded that the fed manipulates or not the releases.
i hope you realized i did the same with you as what you probably do with your daughters, in order to keep them happy and quiet."
7. You conceded indirectly by saying that:
"i wont post for a couple of days, so you re welcome to comment in themost abusive way possible knowing you wont get a reply from me. "
8. And finally, learn how to write properly. Trying to read a sentence that should have ended 50 words ago doesn't help your cause.
Next time you want to debate me don't make it about the US economy. You'll come out the short end of the stick every time, like you have been forever and a day on this forum. I'll stick by what I said earlier, this debate was illuminating for me. Not about you as a "master trader", about you as a person.
Looking forward to reading your "morning after" predictions in the future.
1. Any fool can come one here and "turn bullish" at the tail end of the sharpest turn around we've ever seen on the markets. Next time impress me by posting before the move, not after.
2. You can also impress me by posting an original thought one of these days, not parroting what the financial blow horns are saying.
3. Next time you debate have the decency to debate the facts, to debate exactly what the other person has said and argued, not make up things as you go along. Putting words in the other persons mouth and then denigrating them is not debating, it is lying.
4. You apologized about getting something wrong, surely it can't be. You confused one survey for the other, surely it can't be. The great JW confused about something, surely it can't be. It took you five posts to admit it but at least finally you did, may be there's hope for you after all.
5. You sound confused about inflation, no wait, wait, may be you mean inflation excluding food and fuel, that inflation, now I get it. How did that "no inflation for five years" work out for you?
6. You conceded directly by saying this:
"about the fact that i conceded that the fed manipulates or not the releases.
i hope you realized i did the same with you as what you probably do with your daughters, in order to keep them happy and quiet."
7. You conceded indirectly by saying that:
"i wont post for a couple of days, so you re welcome to comment in themost abusive way possible knowing you wont get a reply from me. "
8. And finally, learn how to write properly. Trying to read a sentence that should have ended 50 words ago doesn't help your cause.
Next time you want to debate me don't make it about the US economy. You'll come out the short end of the stick every time, like you have been forever and a day on this forum. I'll stick by what I said earlier, this debate was illuminating for me. Not about you as a "master trader", about you as a person.
Looking forward to reading your "morning after" predictions in the future.
Nothing like a gracious winner/loser.
The trouble is I'm having great problems who is what in this whole debate.
Tbh I like'em both.
One thing is for sure, they both outstrip anybody else on here for real content and meaning.
If they don't make a few on here rethink why they are even thinking about using their real money in the financial markets on the strenghth of their own amateur "skills and experience", then they are living in cloud cuckoo land. Walter Mitty would have to be their one and only role model.
The trouble is I'm having great problems who is what in this whole debate.
Tbh I like'em both.
One thing is for sure, they both outstrip anybody else on here for real content and meaning.
If they don't make a few on here rethink why they are even thinking about using their real money in the financial markets on the strenghth of their own amateur "skills and experience", then they are living in cloud cuckoo land. Walter Mitty would have to be their one and only role model.
probably your most outrageous post yet melly. You are clearly feeling under pressure after JW so expertly exposed you for your continuous lies, backflips, lack of recognition of evidence etc etc
Menelaus
JW, just a few points so we can bring this to a close:
1. Any fool can come one here and "turn bullish" at the tail end of the sharpest turn around we've ever seen on the markets. Next time impress me by posting before the move, not after.
omg omg omg, this coming from the biggest aftertimer on here.The only thing you ever posted b4 the event was AAPL melly, when ask dozens of times by differnt posters to post SOMETHING in advance- you have all too convieniently ignored them.
2. You can also impress me by posting an original thought one of these days, not parroting what the financial blow horns are saying.
this coming from someone who ad nauseum post links to reports and articles to support his own selective arguments.Lord give me strength.
3. Next time you debate have the decency to debate the facts, to debate exactly what the other person has said and argued, not make up things as you go along. Putting words in the other persons mouth and then denigrating them is not debating, it is lying.
this coming from someone who has been exposed over and over as a blatant liar.
4. You apologized about getting something wrong, surely it can't be. You confused one survey for the other, surely it can't be. The great JW confused about something, surely it can't be. It took you five posts to admit it but at least finally you did, may be there's hope for you after all.
this coming from someone who has only ever got one thing right here and posted so many error, mistakes, incorrect assumptions, failed results and who has NEVER NEVER NEVER once admitted to being wrong, despite a tsunami of evidence.
The gall of you melly- really.
JW is one step ahead of you by admitting he got something wrong btw.
5. You sound confused about inflation, no wait, wait, may be you mean inflation excluding food and fuel, that inflation, now I get it. How did that "no inflation for five years" work out for you?
[>o][>o][>o][>o][>o][>o][>o][>o] yes right melly, one week its hyperinflation, the next its deflation from you. You really have zero idea what inflation is OR where its going.
6. You conceded directly by saying this:
"about the fact that i conceded that the fed manipulates or not the releases.
i hope you realized i did the same with you as what you probably do with your daughters, in order to keep them happy and quiet."
7. You conceded indirectly by saying that:
"i wont post for a couple of days, so you re welcome to comment in themost abusive way possible knowing you wont get a reply from me. "
[:x] abusive posting is all melly knows how to do.
8. And finally, learn how to write properly. Trying to read a sentence that should have ended 50 words ago doesn't help your cause.
[:x]your arrogance knows no bounds melly. Forum rules state that correct spelling, sentence structure and punctuation ARE NOT a requirement of posting.
Only the most arrogant and self obsessed point out such things in their desperation to feel superior.
JW slaughtered you melly.Accept it and try to improve. Your self appointed reign was over long ago.You need to accept it.
After you latest post you are now officially in the " try hard" catergory.
Suggest you email canadian for advice.
Menelaus
JW, just a few points so we can bring this to a close:
1. Any fool can come one here and "turn bullish" at the tail end of the sharpest turn around we've ever seen on the markets. Next time impress me by posting before the move, not after.
omg omg omg, this coming from the biggest aftertimer on here.The only thing you ever posted b4 the event was AAPL melly, when ask dozens of times by differnt posters to post SOMETHING in advance- you have all too convieniently ignored them.2. You can also impress me by posting an original thought one of these days, not parroting what the financial blow horns are saying.
this coming from someone who ad nauseum post links to reports and articles to support his own selective arguments.Lord give me strength.3. Next time you debate have the decency to debate the facts, to debate exactly what the other person has said and argued, not make up things as you go along. Putting words in the other persons mouth and then denigrating them is not debating, it is lying.
this coming from someone who has been exposed over and over as a blatant liar.4. You apologized about getting something wrong, surely it can't be. You confused one survey for the other, surely it can't be. The great JW confused about something, surely it can't be. It took you five posts to admit it but at least finally you did, may be there's hope for you after all.
this coming from someone who has only ever got one thing right here and posted so many error, mistakes, incorrect assumptions, failed results and who has NEVER NEVER NEVER once admitted to being wrong, despite a tsunami of evidence.The gall of you melly- really.
JW is one step ahead of you by admitting he got something wrong btw.
5. You sound confused about inflation, no wait, wait, may be you mean inflation excluding food and fuel, that inflation, now I get it. How did that "no inflation for five years" work out for you?
[>o][>o][>o][>o][>o][>o][>o][>o] yes right melly, one week its hyperinflation, the next its deflation from you. You really have zero idea what inflation is OR where its going.
6. You conceded directly by saying this:
"about the fact that i conceded that the fed manipulates or not the releases.
i hope you realized i did the same with you as what you probably do with your daughters, in order to keep them happy and quiet."
7. You conceded indirectly by saying that:
"i wont post for a couple of days, so you re welcome to comment in themost abusive way possible knowing you wont get a reply from me. "
[:x] abusive posting is all melly knows how to do.
8. And finally, learn how to write properly. Trying to read a sentence that should have ended 50 words ago doesn't help your cause.
[:x]your arrogance knows no bounds melly. Forum rules state that correct spelling, sentence structure and punctuation ARE NOT a requirement of posting.
Only the most arrogant and self obsessed point out such things in their desperation to feel superior.
JW slaughtered you melly.Accept it and try to improve. Your self appointed reign was over long ago.You need to accept it.
After you latest post you are now officially in the " try hard" catergory.
Suggest you email canadian for advice.
Benny, you are displaying classic stalker symptoms. Wait until the person you are stalking posts something and come right on top with your own post full of garbage and insults. As long as you continue to shamelessly show your face on here and prove what a massive ignoramus you are, I will continue to ask the same question:
How you figured out how money gets created yet?
How you figured out how money gets created yet?
Pardon me, Benny, I have to give credit where credit is due. You haven't a clue how money gets created but you DID post how money gets destroyed. Here is it and thanks you for posting that.
Mrben Joined: 25 Oct 03
Replies: 2828 25 Jan 11 03:09
Im with you there johhnie re gold.Im thinking the same as whippet, first stop around 1250, the lower and lower
I have a long range bet based on gold going under 1000 in the last 3 mths of 2011 and the first 3 mths of 2012.
Mrben Joined: 25 Oct 03
Replies: 2828 25 Jan 11 03:09
Im with you there johhnie re gold.Im thinking the same as whippet, first stop around 1250, the lower and lower
I have a long range bet based on gold going under 1000 in the last 3 mths of 2011 and the first 3 mths of 2012.
I suggest people just block this idiot troll, I've had enough of hearing his cr@p.
i had him blocked b4 pierre but you miss his drivel after a while.I mean we all need a good laugh right?
FYI-- after mellys dingbat mate canadian started posting on the aussie forum , a few members there began to look through his posts in general. A number emailed me with their thoughts.
I wont repeat the exact words but this one springs to mind- ' who are these twits canadian and melanus? following each other around like a pair of rabid dogs?
another" those two are a waste of oxygen"
i sort of had to concur
FYI-- after mellys dingbat mate canadian started posting on the aussie forum , a few members there began to look through his posts in general. A number emailed me with their thoughts.
I wont repeat the exact words but this one springs to mind- ' who are these twits canadian and melanus? following each other around like a pair of rabid dogs?
another" those two are a waste of oxygen"
i sort of had to concur
GOLD $1,544
Awesome call Benny. You are solidly in the lead for "MOST CLUELESS POST OF THE YEAR" award.
You got my vote.
Awesome call Benny. You are solidly in the lead for "MOST CLUELESS POST OF THE YEAR" award.
You got my vote.
Menelaus
Please give up on the lot of them.
Just let them do their thing, and let others choose either to listen to them or ignore them.
And vice versa.
Time will tell who was more right, and whom people would have been best advised to read and learn from.
I think you know which camp I fall into, but it's not really important one way or another.
You're posting with the honest intent of trying to inform and assist people.
You're not telling they must believe or follow your opinions. Let them choose freely.
That's the bottom line.
Listen to every point of view/opinion you can, and make your own choices if you want to do your own trading/investing.
In my case, you and JW provide me with good questions to throw at my advisers.
In fact they're starting to wonder where the hell I'm getting all of this " intelligent" stuff from all of a sudden.
Do you think I should reveal from a forum on a gambling company website ?
Maybe I will. Would like to see their reactions tbh.
Please give up on the lot of them.
Just let them do their thing, and let others choose either to listen to them or ignore them.
And vice versa.
Time will tell who was more right, and whom people would have been best advised to read and learn from.
I think you know which camp I fall into, but it's not really important one way or another.
You're posting with the honest intent of trying to inform and assist people.
You're not telling they must believe or follow your opinions. Let them choose freely.
That's the bottom line.
Listen to every point of view/opinion you can, and make your own choices if you want to do your own trading/investing.
In my case, you and JW provide me with good questions to throw at my advisers.
In fact they're starting to wonder where the hell I'm getting all of this " intelligent" stuff from all of a sudden.
Do you think I should reveal from a forum on a gambling company website ?
Maybe I will. Would like to see their reactions tbh.
FAFH, garden leave is where you don't have to work your notice period, and are given full pay instead. Usually happens when you are caught red handed with the bosses secretary I think.
FAFH, well said. Pierre is an one trick pony (I think it was Whippet who quite correctly labeled him as a "perma-bear") and Benny is just............. noise.
You probably know by now about the massive NFP miss in the US earlier in the day. That "soft patch" that JW keeps telling us about is beginning to look like the Pantanal swamp.
You probably know by now about the massive NFP miss in the US earlier in the day. That "soft patch" that JW keeps telling us about is beginning to look like the Pantanal swamp.
I know about the NFP miss, but I'm afraid I'm going to have to google up the Pantanal swamp.
That's a new phrase to me.
That's a new phrase to me.
Tks Whippet, should have really known that I suppose.
But I haven't been in the workforce for well over 25 years now.
But I haven't been in the workforce for well over 25 years now.
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